Oct 13 close Sign in

Market indexes

S&P 500 index (S&P 500)

An index is a scoreboard, not something you can buy directly. Investors hold it through an index fund or ETF, which tracks it closely. The plays read the index itself.

Your signal

Buy74 / 100

Buy: 74 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 99 and lifts it; Plays in (63%) scores 63 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightS&P 500PointsWeightAdds
Plays in63%634025.2
Off the highat its 1-year high993029.7
Trend+8% vs 200-day653019.5

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for S&P 500
FactorS&P 500PointsWhat it is
Plays in63%63The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside––How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating––The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E––Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0.
Forward P/E––Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0.
PEG––P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales––Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher.
Price to book––Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher.
Dividend yield––Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0.
Earnings growth––Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth––Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Profit margin––Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher.
Return on equity––Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equity––Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0.
Off the highat its 1-year high99How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+8% vs 200-day65How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+17%52The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure0/10 · low100The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in63 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.08×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+8%). Higher than on 70% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about S&P 500 now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

S&P 500, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on S&P 500

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on S&P 500 went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.1%Exit below 7,737.76 (−0.9%)26% 169/652+0.8% / +9.0%−52.4% / −56.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINApr 10, 2026 +14.5%Exit below 7,552.97 (−3.2%)35% 31/88+6.6% / +9.0%−21.6% / −56.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyINSep 17, 2026 +2.2%Exit below 7,677.02 (−1.6%)27% 94/348+4.7% / +9.0%−30.6% / −56.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTJun 26, 2026 +6.1%Enter above 8,246.89 (+5.7%)26% 19/72+2.6% / +9.0%−17.2% / −56.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyINApr 10, 2026 +14.5%Exit below 7,430.09 (−4.8%)32% 20/62+7.5% / +9.0%−15.7% / −56.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTDec 23, 2004 +545.0%Enter above 7,847.82 (+0.5%)–+1.8% / +9.0%0.0% / −56.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINApr 30, 2026 +8.3%Exit below 7,273.57 (−6.8%)38% 12/32+7.7% / +9.0%−24.8% / −56.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINApr 8, 2026 +15.1%Exit below 7,261.16 (−7.0%)14% 21/150+6.2% / +9.0%−20.7% / −56.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINJul 1, 2025 +25.9%Not on one close40% 8/20+7.8% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyINApr 8, 2026 +15.1%Exit below 7,261.16 (−7.0%)18% 20/114+6.3% / +9.0%−21.8% / −56.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below 7,704.13 (−1.3%)35% 48/136+4.3% / +9.0%−23.9% / −56.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.1%Exit below 7,726.28 (−1.0%)24% 197/835−0.4% / +9.0%−50.4% / −56.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.4%Exit below 7,537.35 (−3.4%)33% 93/282+3.5% / +9.0%−36.8% / −56.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINMay 6, 2025 +39.2%Not on one close31% 8/26+6.4% / +9.0%−29.5% / −56.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyINAug 3, 2026 +2.7%Exit below 7,380.08 (−5.4%)30% 38/128+4.9% / +9.0%−19.0% / −56.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyINApr 13, 2026 +13.3%Exit below 7,555.48 (−3.2%)35% 34/98+6.8% / +9.0%−21.9% / −56.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,623.55 (−2.3%)39% 72/184+4.2% / +9.0%−27.9% / −56.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyINOct 7, 2026 +0.0%Not on one close36% 111/306+3.6% / +9.0%−19.7% / −56.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.1%Exit below 7,630.91 (−2.2%)35% 170/486+3.2% / +9.0%−31.8% / −56.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyINSep 23, 2026 +1.3%Exit below 7,507.81 (−3.8%)43% 78/182+6.9% / +9.0%−17.2% / −56.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,700.96 (−1.3%)34% 188/551+0.3% / +9.0%−51.3% / −56.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTJun 17, 2026 +5.2%Not on one close36% 48/135+2.8% / +9.0%−11.5% / −56.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,325.46 (−6.1%)32% 54/170+5.5% / +9.0%−28.0% / −56.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyINApr 10, 2026 +14.5%Exit below 7,499.09 (−3.9%)33% 40/120+4.8% / +9.0%−41.1% / −56.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINSep 22, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 5,407.26 (−30.7%)32% 69/216+4.3% / +9.0%−25.3% / −56.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,651.60 (−2.0%)38% 106/278+3.5% / +9.0%−42.6% / −56.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyINApr 13, 2026 +13.3%Exit below 7,345.32 (−5.9%)35% 45/130+4.6% / +9.0%−53.6% / −56.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyINApr 16, 2026 +10.9%Exit below 6,658.62 (−14.7%)35% 29/82+6.7% / +9.0%−25.8% / −56.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTJun 5, 2026 +5.7%Not on one close35% 77/223+3.4% / +9.0%−28.0% / −56.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTJul 24, 2024 +43.8%Not on one close30% 6/20+1.5% / +9.0%−5.4% / −56.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −0.2%Exit below 7,507.81 (−3.8%)40% 54/136+5.6% / +9.0%−28.0% / −56.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −0.2%Exit below 7,682.22 (−1.6%)30% 54/180+2.6% / +9.0%−18.9% / −56.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −0.2%Exit below 7,682.22 (−1.6%)27% 33/122+2.9% / +9.0%−17.3% / −56.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −0.2%Exit below 7,609.24 (−2.5%)29% 36/124+3.0% / +9.0%−18.9% / −56.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +2.3%Not on one close36% 42/118+4.3% / +9.0%−29.5% / −56.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 +2.2%Enter above 7,871.91 (+0.9%)30% 53/179+2.1% / +9.0%−12.2% / −56.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −0.2%Exit below 7,734.25 (−0.9%)25% 51/206−0.2% / +9.0%−28.5% / −56.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,652.89 (−2.0%)36% 64/176+5.3% / +9.0%−22.5% / −56.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,651.85 (−2.0%)36% 69/192+4.0% / +9.0%−31.1% / −56.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyINJun 30, 2025 +25.8%Exit below 6,204.10 (−20.5%)43% 12/28+6.8% / +9.0%−35.9% / −56.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,663.39 (−1.8%)27% 103/376+3.2% / +9.0%−34.6% / −56.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTAug 17, 2026 +0.8%Not on one close28% 70/252+1.7% / +9.0%−11.0% / −56.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTJul 20, 2026 +4.9%Not on one close33% 39/118+1.6% / +9.0%−15.4% / −56.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +0.0%Enter above 7,821.66 (+0.2%)30% 241/803−2.1% / +9.0%−51.1% / −56.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTOct 10, 2025 +19.1%Not on one close12% 6/50+0.9% / +9.0%−19.4% / −56.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINJun 30, 2023 +75.4%Exit below 7,092.82 (−9.1%)31% 8/26+7.3% / +9.0%−37.7% / −56.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINMay 31, 2023 +86.7%Not on one close55% 12/22+8.3% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTJan 31, 2005 +560.8%Enter above 7,886.64 (+1.0%)–+1.8% / +9.1%0.0% / −56.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyINMay 5, 2026 +7.5%Exit below 7,592.52 (−2.7%)22% 37/168+4.6% / +9.0%−28.2% / −56.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endINApr 28, 2023 +87.2%Exit below 6,646.12 (−14.9%)40% 4/10+7.0% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyOUTJul 2, 2026 +4.3%Enter above 7,828.05 (+0.3%)50% 1/2+1.9% / +9.0%−0.3% / −56.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.4%Exit below 7,681.05 (−1.6%)34% 162/474+4.1% / +9.0%−24.1% / −56.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.1%Exit below 7,760.69 (−0.6%)29% 225/770+0.3% / +9.0%−41.5% / −56.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −0.2%Exit below 7,197.42 (−7.8%)37% 117/314+2.6% / +9.0%−34.7% / −56.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINMar 31, 2023 +89.9%Not on one close67% 4/6+10.1% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above 7,819.28 (+0.2%)27% 205/756−1.8% / +9.0%−51.9% / −56.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.4%Exit below 7,053.45 (−9.6%)39% 110/280+3.0% / +9.0%−34.9% / −56.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,312.45 (−6.3%)32% 53/166+5.4% / +9.0%−29.1% / −56.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endINApr 30, 2026 +8.3%Exit below 7,521.79 (−3.6%)43% 29/68+6.1% / +9.0%−21.8% / −56.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINMay 31, 2023 +86.7%Not on one close45% 9/20+7.3% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINDec 29, 2023 +63.6%Not on one close60% 12/20+8.3% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.4%Exit below 7,636.85 (−2.2%)31% 121/386+2.8% / +9.0%−34.6% / −56.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 +10.5%Not on one close64% 27/42+5.9% / +9.0%−52.6% / −56.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 11, 2026 +1.9%Buy 7,261.16–7,746.16 (−0.8%)60% 209/350+4.1% / +9.0%−15.2% / −56.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 +0.4%Buy 7,261.16–7,765.28 (−0.5%)65% 286/443+6.1% / +9.0%−16.0% / −56.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Buy below 7,595.35 (−2.7%)65% 128/196+5.7% / +9.0%−28.8% / −56.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyOUTAug 6, 2026 +1.2%Not on one close61% 94/154+4.7% / +9.0%−39.1% / −56.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 +1.3%Not on one close63% 185/292+5.0% / +9.0%−51.5% / −56.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyOUTAug 11, 2026 +1.0%Not on one close55% 32/58+2.4% / +9.0%−48.2% / −56.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINNov 22, 2004 +563.0%Sell above 17,550 (+124.8%)–+9.0% / +9.0%−56.8% / −56.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTApr 9, 2025 +43.0%Not on one close70% 7/10+2.6% / +9.0%−9.8% / −56.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 +1.8%Not on one close47% 134/288+2.8% / +9.0%−60.4% / −56.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 +1.3%Not on one close57% 258/450+2.5% / +9.0%−49.4% / −56.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 +1.8%Buy below 7,805.37 (0.0%)60% 1041/1736+7.0% / +9.0%−13.6% / −56.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Not on one close65% 80/124+5.2% / +9.0%−28.5% / −56.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.4%Exit below 7,761.91 (−0.6%)37% 392/1071+1.8% / +9.0%−46.6% / −56.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINMay 30, 2025 +32.0%Sell above 7,805.91 (+0.0%)57% 24/42+9.1% / +9.0%−45.9% / −56.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 0.0%Not on one close25% 212/841+1.3% / +9.0%−54.9% / −56.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +0.5%Not on one close35% 59/170+1.5% / +9.0%−50.7% / −56.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTNov 21, 2023 +72.0%Not on one close55% 12/22+4.4% / +9.0%−52.6% / −56.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINAug 23, 2011 +571.5%Not on one close25% 3/12+8.9% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.1%Exit below 7,763.75 (−0.5%)27% 237/872+0.2% / +9.0%−53.3% / −56.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyINSep 22, 2026 +0.5%Exit below 7,412.50 (−5.0%)35% 111/318+4.4% / +9.0%−33.4% / −56.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 7, 2026 +0.0%Not on one close31% 182/586−1.6% / +9.0%−61.2% / −56.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINApr 17, 2026 +9.5%Not on one close35% 26/74+8.3% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Sell 7,604.22–7,800.14 (−0.1%)33% 341/1023−0.8% / +9.0%−57.8% / −56.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTAug 11, 2026 +1.0%Not on one close45% 60/134+4.4% / +9.0%−34.2% / −56.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +2.3%Not on one close32% 33/104+3.8% / +9.0%−23.8% / −56.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +3.4%Not on one close38% 22/58+1.3% / +9.0%−14.0% / −56.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +8.3%Buys Oct 3047% 20/43+6.1% / +9.0%−37.2% / −56.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.1%Window opens Apr 150% 22/44+6.0% / +9.0%−40.6% / −56.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTMay 18, 2026 +5.4%Window opens Oct 1651% 22/43+6.0% / +9.0%−33.9% / −56.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +13.1%Buys Dec 2343% 19/44+2.1% / +9.0%−6.9% / −56.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 +0.4%Buys Oct 2947% 245/526+2.4% / +9.0%−19.9% / −56.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +2.0%Sells Jun 3055% 6/11+4.0% / +9.0%−19.9% / −56.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 +1.1%Buys Nov 2449% 195/400+2.2% / +9.0%−6.8% / −56.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +103.3%Not on one close30% 6/20+6.1% / +9.0%−31.5% / −56.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 0.0%Sells Oct 1652% 1184/2284+3.6% / +9.0%−44.7% / −56.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +3.4%Buys Oct 2743% 151/348+2.8% / +9.0%−4.2% / −56.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.1%Sells Oct 1650% 273/541+4.4% / +9.0%−36.2% / −56.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 3, 2005Always in–+9.0%−56.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureLow0 of 10 points
  • Market swings0/3
  • Past crashes0/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Dot-com bust Mar 2000 to Oct 2002 · back to its old high May 2007

S&P 500−49%

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Mar 2013

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Aug 2020

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2024

S&P 500−25%
  • Two-year change+34%
  • From 52-week high−0%

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

Who would feel a crash first

The U.S. stocks Be The Puck covers, ranked by crash exposure. Be The Puck covers a sample of names, not the full index.

StockExposureBeta2-yr changePlays inWhy
RKLBRocket LabVery high 10/102.51+562%26 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 562% in
OPTTOcean Power TechnologiesVery high 9/1016.32+380%30 of 100 inmoves about 16.3× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 380% in
CARAvis BudgetVery high 8/101.85+30%22 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
CRWDCrowdStrikeVery high 8/101.90+226%62 of 100 inmoves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 226% in
EOSEEos EnergyVery high 8/102.52−26%15 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 3.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
FLNCFluence EnergyVery high 8/102.08−69%24 of 100 inmoves about 2.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
GPROGoProVery high 8/102.77−9%32 of 100 inmoves about 2.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
LITELumentumVery high 8/102.32+1,348%55 of 100 inmoves about 2.3× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 1348% in
MARAMARA HoldingsVery high 8/102.01−43%14 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 2.6× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
RIOTRiot PlatformsVery high 8/102.37+98%19 of 100 inmoves about 2.4× its index; fell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
AMDAMDVery high 7/102.04+261%57 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 261% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
INTCIntelVery high 7/102.00+336%34 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.4×; is up 336% in t
MSTRStrategy (MicroStrategy)Very high 7/101.50−28%40 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
MUMicronVery high 7/102.52+796%40 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 796% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
QUTXQuantum XVery high 7/10−6.16+800%20 of 100 infell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit doesn't cover its interest;
WSCWillScotVery high 7/101.76−51%25 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 4.4× as much debt as equity; operating profit cover
APPAppLovinHigh 6/103.12+85%16 of 100 inmoves about 3.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity
AXONAxon EnterpriseHigh 6/101.52−5%20 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 1.2×
BTDRBitdeer TechnologiesHigh 6/102.41+22%12 of 100 inmoves about 2.4× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.7×
CRWVCoreWeaveHigh 6/101.71–11 of 98 inmoves about 1.7× its index; carries 15.5× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 0.0×
HTZHertzHigh 6/101.20−37%34 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
LRCXLam ResearchHigh 6/102.04+269%43 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 269% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
NPCENeuroPaceHigh 6/100.94+92%26 of 100 infell about 2.8× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
PLTRPalantirHigh 6/102.48+380%68 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 380% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
SBUXStarbucksHigh 6/101.13+1%28 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
STXSeagate TechnologyHigh 6/101.99+601%29 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; is up 601% in two year
TERTeradyneHigh 6/101.70+190%45 of 100 inmoves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 190% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
WDCWestern DigitalHigh 6/102.19+680%28 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 680% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
ASMLASML HoldingHigh 5/101.52+108%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 108% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
BKNGBooking HoldingsHigh 5/101.14−7%23 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
HOLOMicroCloud HologramHigh 5/102.89−99%12 of 100 inmoves about 2.9× its index; fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes
LSCCLattice SemiconductorHigh 5/102.03+133%47 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 3.7×; is up 133% in t
MCHPMicrochip TechnologyHigh 5/102.00+0%31 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
MRVLMarvell TechnologyHigh 5/102.20+265%63 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 265% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
NBISNebius GroupHigh 5/102.73–30 of 98 inmoves about 2.7× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.2×
NXPINXP SemiconductorsHigh 5/101.53−1%23 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
PRSOPerasoHigh 5/100.80−77%16 of 100 infell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
TSLATeslaHigh 5/101.82+72%45 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes
ALABAstera LabsModerate 4/102.78+388%46 of 99 inmoves about 2.8× its index; is up 388% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
ALNYAlnylam PharmaceuticalsModerate 4/100.96−21%13 of 100 incarries 3.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
AMATApplied MaterialsModerate 4/101.69+130%42 of 100 inmoves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
AVGOBroadcomModerate 4/102.49+100%36 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 100% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
CEGConstellation EnergyModerate 4/101.51+12%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity
DASHDoorDashModerate 4/101.77+29%41 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes
DDOGDatadogModerate 4/101.39+118%68 of 100 inmoves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
JPMJPMorgan ChaseModerate 4/101.02+55%37 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity
KLACKLAModerate 4/101.86+132%42 of 100 inmoves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 132% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
MARMarriottModerate 4/100.96+44%67 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
METAMeta PlatformsModerate 4/101.47+30%57 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
NAMMNamib MineralsModerate 4/10−2.48–19 of 98 inowes more than it owns (negative equity)
NVDANvidiaModerate 4/102.15+70%54 of 100 inmoves about 2.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
SUPXSuperX AI TechnologyModerate 4/100.03+43%19 of 99 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
URIUnited RentalsModerate 4/101.41+32%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity
ABNBAirbnbModerate 3/101.29+23%48 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index; fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes
AMGNAmgenModerate 3/100.41+34%62 of 100 incarries 6.6× as much debt as equity
AMZNAmazonModerate 3/101.47+37%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
ARMArm HoldingsModerate 3/102.82+69%30 of 100 inmoves about 2.8× its index
CARRCarrier GlobalModerate 3/101.23−31%24 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
FCFranklin CoveyModerate 3/101.17−54%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
ISRGIntuitive SurgicalModerate 3/101.22−13%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes
MELIMercadoLibreModerate 3/101.02−10%48 of 100 infell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 2.0× as much debt as equity
MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsModerate 3/102.20+43%48 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
ORLYO'Reilly AutomotiveModerate 3/100.21+9%34 of 100 inowes more than it owns (negative equity)
PYPLPayPalModerate 3/101.13−29%56 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
QCOMQualcommModerate 3/101.79+9%32 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index
SNPSSynopsysModerate 3/101.61−8%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index
SPCXSpaceXModerate 3/10––35 of 59 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
STMSTMicroelectronicsModerate 3/101.60+81%36 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
TTWOTake-Two InteractiveModerate 3/100.86+29%22 of 100 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
WDAYWorkdayModerate 3/101.08−23%41 of 100 infell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes
ADBEAdobeLow 2/101.05−52%25 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
ADIAnalog DevicesLow 2/101.56+83%64 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index
ADSKAutodeskLow 2/101.05−18%48 of 100 infell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes
AEPAmerican Electric PowerLow 2/10−0.03+37%51 of 100 incarries 1.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.8×
BKRBaker HughesLow 2/100.64+55%30 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific PartnersLow 2/100.41+43%57 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity
CDNSCadence Design SystemsLow 2/101.49+18%52 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
EIXEdison InternationalLow 2/100.20−26%38 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
EXCExelonLow 2/10−0.09+15%38 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.5×
FERFerrovialLow 2/100.70+28%23 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.4×
FLXSFlexsteel IndustriesLow 2/100.73+118%62 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
GEHCGE HealthCareLow 2/101.25−24%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index
GOOGLAlphabetLow 2/101.21+118%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
HONAHoneywell AerospaceLow 2/10––21 of 59 incarries 1.9× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.9×
IDXXIDEXX LaboratoriesLow 2/101.01+9%31 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
INTUIntuitLow 2/100.68−50%33 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
KDPKeurig Dr PepperLow 2/100.18−5%67 of 100 in
PANWPalo Alto NetworksLow 2/101.30+113%66 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index; is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
RRyder SystemLow 2/101.14+65%40 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; carries 2.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.7×
SNDKSandiskLow 2/102.54–28 of 98 inmoves about 2.5× its index
XELXcel EnergyLow 2/100.11+28%45 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
BSXBoston ScientificLow 1/100.77−50%26 of 100 in
CMCSAComcastLow 1/100.50−41%21 of 100 infell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
CPRTCopartLow 1/100.89−53%16 of 100 in
CSCOCiscoLow 1/100.81+122%67 of 100 inis up 122% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
DXCMDexComLow 1/101.06+23%44 of 100 infell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
FANGDiamondback EnergyLow 1/100.31+7%51 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
FTNTFortinetLow 1/101.03+130%74 of 100 inis up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
HONHoneywellLow 1/100.76+1%31 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
LLYEli LillyLow 1/100.56+27%54 of 100 incarries 2.1× as much debt as equity
MDTMedtronicLow 1/100.38+11%49 of 100 in
MSFTMicrosoftLow 1/101.14+33%65 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index
NFLXNetflixLow 1/101.07−3%24 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
NVONovo NordiskLow 1/101.06−66%24 of 100 in
ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineLow 1/100.99−7%43 of 100 in
PDDPDD HoldingsLow 1/100.81−43%45 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
PEPPepsiCoLow 1/100.14−21%28 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
PFEPfizerLow 1/100.37+11%58 of 100 inoperating profit covers interest only 3.8×
ROSTRoss StoresLow 1/100.66+61%29 of 100 infell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
STHHSTMicroelectronics (currency-hedged ETF)Low 1/101.46–34 of 98 inmoves about 1.5× its index
TMUST-Mobile USLow 1/100.35−25%19 of 100 incarries 2.0× as much debt as equity
TRNSTranscatLow 1/101.00−31%42 of 100 inoperating profit covers interest only 2.7×
TXNTexas InstrumentsLow 1/101.26+48%65 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index
AAPLAppleLow 0/101.04+51%66 of 100 in
ADPADPLow 0/100.52+1%59 of 100 in
APAAPA CorpLow 0/100.35+93%74 of 100 in
COSTCostcoLow 0/100.48+9%54 of 100 in
CSXCSXLow 0/100.64+41%46 of 100 in
CTASCintasLow 0/100.70+1%62 of 100 in
FASTFastenalLow 0/100.61+40%63 of 100 in
GILDGilead SciencesLow 0/100.34+84%56 of 100 in
LINLindeLow 0/100.35+7%59 of 100 in
MDLZMondelezLow 0/100.06−7%46 of 100 in
MNSTMonster BeverageLow 0/100.40+69%43 of 100 in
PAYXPaychexLow 0/100.46−18%37 of 100 in
PCARPaccarLow 0/100.75+8%29 of 100 in
REGNRegeneronLow 0/100.63−25%37 of 100 in
ROPRoper TechnologiesLow 0/100.55−32%37 of 100 in
TRIThomson ReutersLow 0/100.54−34%52 of 100 in
VRTXVertex PharmaceuticalsLow 0/100.58+1%33 of 100 in
WMTWalmartLow 0/100.55+43%55 of 100 in
XOMExxon MobilLow 0/100.01+50%77 of 100 in

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