Market indexes
S&P 500 index (S&P 500)
An index is a scoreboard, not something you can buy directly. Investors hold it through an index fund or ETF, which tracks it closely. The plays read the index itself.
Your signal
Buy: 74 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 99 and lifts it; Plays in (63%) scores 63 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | S&P 500 | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 63% | 63 | 40 | 25.2 |
| Off the high | at its 1-year high | 99 | 30 | 29.7 |
| Trend | +8% vs 200-day | 65 | 30 | 19.5 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for S&P 500
| Factor | S&P 500 | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 63% | 63 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | at its 1-year high | 99 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +8% vs 200-day | 65 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +17% | 52 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
- 63 of the 100 plays hold S&P 500 right now.
- The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 8% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about S&P 500 now.
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
S&P 500, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on S&P 500
All 100 plays, by family.
Calls right: how often the play's calls on S&P 500 went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below 7,737.76 (−0.9%) | 26% 169/652 | +0.8% / +9.0% | −52.4% / −56.8% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +14.5% | Exit below 7,552.97 (−3.2%) | 35% 31/88 | +6.6% / +9.0% | −21.6% / −56.8% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +2.2% | Exit below 7,677.02 (−1.6%) | 27% 94/348 | +4.7% / +9.0% | −30.6% / −56.8% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Jun 26, 2026 +6.1% | Enter above 8,246.89 (+5.7%) | 26% 19/72 | +2.6% / +9.0% | −17.2% / −56.8% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +14.5% | Exit below 7,430.09 (−4.8%) | 32% 20/62 | +7.5% / +9.0% | −15.7% / −56.8% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Dec 23, 2004 +545.0% | Enter above 7,847.82 (+0.5%) | – | +1.8% / +9.0% | 0.0% / −56.8% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +8.3% | Exit below 7,273.57 (−6.8%) | 38% 12/32 | +7.7% / +9.0% | −24.8% / −56.8% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +15.1% | Exit below 7,261.16 (−7.0%) | 14% 21/150 | +6.2% / +9.0% | −20.7% / −56.8% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jul 1, 2025 +25.9% | Not on one close | 40% 8/20 | +7.8% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +15.1% | Exit below 7,261.16 (−7.0%) | 18% 20/114 | +6.3% / +9.0% | −21.8% / −56.8% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below 7,704.13 (−1.3%) | 35% 48/136 | +4.3% / +9.0% | −23.9% / −56.8% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below 7,726.28 (−1.0%) | 24% 197/835 | −0.4% / +9.0% | −50.4% / −56.8% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below 7,537.35 (−3.4%) | 33% 93/282 | +3.5% / +9.0% | −36.8% / −56.8% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | May 6, 2025 +39.2% | Not on one close | 31% 8/26 | +6.4% / +9.0% | −29.5% / −56.8% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Aug 3, 2026 +2.7% | Exit below 7,380.08 (−5.4%) | 30% 38/128 | +4.9% / +9.0% | −19.0% / −56.8% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Apr 13, 2026 +13.3% | Exit below 7,555.48 (−3.2%) | 35% 34/98 | +6.8% / +9.0% | −21.9% / −56.8% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,623.55 (−2.3%) | 39% 72/184 | +4.2% / +9.0% | −27.9% / −56.8% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.0% | Not on one close | 36% 111/306 | +3.6% / +9.0% | −19.7% / −56.8% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below 7,630.91 (−2.2%) | 35% 170/486 | +3.2% / +9.0% | −31.8% / −56.8% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Sep 23, 2026 +1.3% | Exit below 7,507.81 (−3.8%) | 43% 78/182 | +6.9% / +9.0% | −17.2% / −56.8% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,700.96 (−1.3%) | 34% 188/551 | +0.3% / +9.0% | −51.3% / −56.8% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jun 17, 2026 +5.2% | Not on one close | 36% 48/135 | +2.8% / +9.0% | −11.5% / −56.8% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,325.46 (−6.1%) | 32% 54/170 | +5.5% / +9.0% | −28.0% / −56.8% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +14.5% | Exit below 7,499.09 (−3.9%) | 33% 40/120 | +4.8% / +9.0% | −41.1% / −56.8% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 5,407.26 (−30.7%) | 32% 69/216 | +4.3% / +9.0% | −25.3% / −56.8% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,651.60 (−2.0%) | 38% 106/278 | +3.5% / +9.0% | −42.6% / −56.8% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Apr 13, 2026 +13.3% | Exit below 7,345.32 (−5.9%) | 35% 45/130 | +4.6% / +9.0% | −53.6% / −56.8% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Apr 16, 2026 +10.9% | Exit below 6,658.62 (−14.7%) | 35% 29/82 | +6.7% / +9.0% | −25.8% / −56.8% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Jun 5, 2026 +5.7% | Not on one close | 35% 77/223 | +3.4% / +9.0% | −28.0% / −56.8% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jul 24, 2024 +43.8% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +1.5% / +9.0% | −5.4% / −56.8% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.2% | Exit below 7,507.81 (−3.8%) | 40% 54/136 | +5.6% / +9.0% | −28.0% / −56.8% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.2% | Exit below 7,682.22 (−1.6%) | 30% 54/180 | +2.6% / +9.0% | −18.9% / −56.8% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.2% | Exit below 7,682.22 (−1.6%) | 27% 33/122 | +2.9% / +9.0% | −17.3% / −56.8% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.2% | Exit below 7,609.24 (−2.5%) | 29% 36/124 | +3.0% / +9.0% | −18.9% / −56.8% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 +2.3% | Not on one close | 36% 42/118 | +4.3% / +9.0% | −29.5% / −56.8% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 +2.2% | Enter above 7,871.91 (+0.9%) | 30% 53/179 | +2.1% / +9.0% | −12.2% / −56.8% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.2% | Exit below 7,734.25 (−0.9%) | 25% 51/206 | −0.2% / +9.0% | −28.5% / −56.8% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,652.89 (−2.0%) | 36% 64/176 | +5.3% / +9.0% | −22.5% / −56.8% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,651.85 (−2.0%) | 36% 69/192 | +4.0% / +9.0% | −31.1% / −56.8% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Jun 30, 2025 +25.8% | Exit below 6,204.10 (−20.5%) | 43% 12/28 | +6.8% / +9.0% | −35.9% / −56.8% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,663.39 (−1.8%) | 27% 103/376 | +3.2% / +9.0% | −34.6% / −56.8% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Aug 17, 2026 +0.8% | Not on one close | 28% 70/252 | +1.7% / +9.0% | −11.0% / −56.8% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Jul 20, 2026 +4.9% | Not on one close | 33% 39/118 | +1.6% / +9.0% | −15.4% / −56.8% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.0% | Enter above 7,821.66 (+0.2%) | 30% 241/803 | −2.1% / +9.0% | −51.1% / −56.8% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 10, 2025 +19.1% | Not on one close | 12% 6/50 | +0.9% / +9.0% | −19.4% / −56.8% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2023 +75.4% | Exit below 7,092.82 (−9.1%) | 31% 8/26 | +7.3% / +9.0% | −37.7% / −56.8% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | May 31, 2023 +86.7% | Not on one close | 55% 12/22 | +8.3% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Jan 31, 2005 +560.8% | Enter above 7,886.64 (+1.0%) | – | +1.8% / +9.1% | 0.0% / −56.8% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | May 5, 2026 +7.5% | Exit below 7,592.52 (−2.7%) | 22% 37/168 | +4.6% / +9.0% | −28.2% / −56.8% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +87.2% | Exit below 6,646.12 (−14.9%) | 40% 4/10 | +7.0% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Jul 2, 2026 +4.3% | Enter above 7,828.05 (+0.3%) | 50% 1/2 | +1.9% / +9.0% | −0.3% / −56.8% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below 7,681.05 (−1.6%) | 34% 162/474 | +4.1% / +9.0% | −24.1% / −56.8% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below 7,760.69 (−0.6%) | 29% 225/770 | +0.3% / +9.0% | −41.5% / −56.8% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.2% | Exit below 7,197.42 (−7.8%) | 37% 117/314 | +2.6% / +9.0% | −34.7% / −56.8% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Mar 31, 2023 +89.9% | Not on one close | 67% 4/6 | +10.1% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 7,819.28 (+0.2%) | 27% 205/756 | −1.8% / +9.0% | −51.9% / −56.8% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below 7,053.45 (−9.6%) | 39% 110/280 | +3.0% / +9.0% | −34.9% / −56.8% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,312.45 (−6.3%) | 32% 53/166 | +5.4% / +9.0% | −29.1% / −56.8% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +8.3% | Exit below 7,521.79 (−3.6%) | 43% 29/68 | +6.1% / +9.0% | −21.8% / −56.8% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | May 31, 2023 +86.7% | Not on one close | 45% 9/20 | +7.3% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Dec 29, 2023 +63.6% | Not on one close | 60% 12/20 | +8.3% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below 7,636.85 (−2.2%) | 31% 121/386 | +2.8% / +9.0% | −34.6% / −56.8% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Apr 21, 2026 +10.5% | Not on one close | 64% 27/42 | +5.9% / +9.0% | −52.6% / −56.8% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 +1.9% | Buy 7,261.16–7,746.16 (−0.8%) | 60% 209/350 | +4.1% / +9.0% | −15.2% / −56.8% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Buy 7,261.16–7,765.28 (−0.5%) | 65% 286/443 | +6.1% / +9.0% | −16.0% / −56.8% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Buy below 7,595.35 (−2.7%) | 65% 128/196 | +5.7% / +9.0% | −28.8% / −56.8% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Aug 6, 2026 +1.2% | Not on one close | 61% 94/154 | +4.7% / +9.0% | −39.1% / −56.8% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 +1.3% | Not on one close | 63% 185/292 | +5.0% / +9.0% | −51.5% / −56.8% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | Aug 11, 2026 +1.0% | Not on one close | 55% 32/58 | +2.4% / +9.0% | −48.2% / −56.8% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +563.0% | Sell above 17,550 (+124.8%) | – | +9.0% / +9.0% | −56.8% / −56.8% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Apr 9, 2025 +43.0% | Not on one close | 70% 7/10 | +2.6% / +9.0% | −9.8% / −56.8% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 +1.8% | Not on one close | 47% 134/288 | +2.8% / +9.0% | −60.4% / −56.8% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 +1.3% | Not on one close | 57% 258/450 | +2.5% / +9.0% | −49.4% / −56.8% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +1.8% | Buy below 7,805.37 (0.0%) | 60% 1041/1736 | +7.0% / +9.0% | −13.6% / −56.8% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Not on one close | 65% 80/124 | +5.2% / +9.0% | −28.5% / −56.8% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below 7,761.91 (−0.6%) | 37% 392/1071 | +1.8% / +9.0% | −46.6% / −56.8% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | May 30, 2025 +32.0% | Sell above 7,805.91 (+0.0%) | 57% 24/42 | +9.1% / +9.0% | −45.9% / −56.8% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 25% 212/841 | +1.3% / +9.0% | −54.9% / −56.8% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.5% | Not on one close | 35% 59/170 | +1.5% / +9.0% | −50.7% / −56.8% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Nov 21, 2023 +72.0% | Not on one close | 55% 12/22 | +4.4% / +9.0% | −52.6% / −56.8% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Aug 23, 2011 +571.5% | Not on one close | 25% 3/12 | +8.9% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below 7,763.75 (−0.5%) | 27% 237/872 | +0.2% / +9.0% | −53.3% / −56.8% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below 7,412.50 (−5.0%) | 35% 111/318 | +4.4% / +9.0% | −33.4% / −56.8% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.0% | Not on one close | 31% 182/586 | −1.6% / +9.0% | −61.2% / −56.8% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Apr 17, 2026 +9.5% | Not on one close | 35% 26/74 | +8.3% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.1% | Sell 7,604.22–7,800.14 (−0.1%) | 33% 341/1023 | −0.8% / +9.0% | −57.8% / −56.8% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Aug 11, 2026 +1.0% | Not on one close | 45% 60/134 | +4.4% / +9.0% | −34.2% / −56.8% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 +2.3% | Not on one close | 32% 33/104 | +3.8% / +9.0% | −23.8% / −56.8% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +3.4% | Not on one close | 38% 22/58 | +1.3% / +9.0% | −14.0% / −56.8% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +8.3% | Buys Oct 30 | 47% 20/43 | +6.1% / +9.0% | −37.2% / −56.8% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Window opens Apr 1 | 50% 22/44 | +6.0% / +9.0% | −40.6% / −56.8% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 18, 2026 +5.4% | Window opens Oct 16 | 51% 22/43 | +6.0% / +9.0% | −33.9% / −56.8% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +13.1% | Buys Dec 23 | 43% 19/44 | +2.1% / +9.0% | −6.9% / −56.8% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 245/526 | +2.4% / +9.0% | −19.9% / −56.8% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +2.0% | Sells Jun 30 | 55% 6/11 | +4.0% / +9.0% | −19.9% / −56.8% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +1.1% | Buys Nov 24 | 49% 195/400 | +2.2% / +9.0% | −6.8% / −56.8% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +103.3% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +6.1% / +9.0% | −31.5% / −56.8% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 0.0% | Sells Oct 16 | 52% 1184/2284 | +3.6% / +9.0% | −44.7% / −56.8% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +3.4% | Buys Oct 27 | 43% 151/348 | +2.8% / +9.0% | −4.2% / −56.8% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 273/541 | +4.4% / +9.0% | −36.2% / −56.8% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +9.0% | −56.8% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test works- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Two-year change+34%
- From 52-week high−0%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
Who would feel a crash first
The U.S. stocks Be The Puck covers, ranked by crash exposure. Be The Puck covers a sample of names, not the full index.
| Stock | Exposure | Beta | 2-yr change | Plays in | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLBRocket Lab | Very high 10/10 | 2.51 | +562% | 26 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 562% in |
| OPTTOcean Power Technologies | Very high 9/10 | 16.32 | +380% | 30 of 100 in | moves about 16.3× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 380% in |
| CARAvis Budget | Very high 8/10 | 1.85 | +30% | 22 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | Very high 8/10 | 1.90 | +226% | 62 of 100 in | moves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 226% in |
| EOSEEos Energy | Very high 8/10 | 2.52 | −26% | 15 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 3.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit |
| FLNCFluence Energy | Very high 8/10 | 2.08 | −69% | 24 of 100 in | moves about 2.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| GPROGoPro | Very high 8/10 | 2.77 | −9% | 32 of 100 in | moves about 2.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| LITELumentum | Very high 8/10 | 2.32 | +1,348% | 55 of 100 in | moves about 2.3× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 1348% in |
| MARAMARA Holdings | Very high 8/10 | 2.01 | −43% | 14 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 2.6× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| RIOTRiot Platforms | Very high 8/10 | 2.37 | +98% | 19 of 100 in | moves about 2.4× its index; fell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| AMDAMD | Very high 7/10 | 2.04 | +261% | 57 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 261% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| INTCIntel | Very high 7/10 | 2.00 | +336% | 34 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.4×; is up 336% in t |
| MSTRStrategy (MicroStrategy) | Very high 7/10 | 1.50 | −28% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| MUMicron | Very high 7/10 | 2.52 | +796% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 796% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| QUTXQuantum X | Very high 7/10 | −6.16 | +800% | 20 of 100 in | fell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit doesn't cover its interest; |
| WSCWillScot | Very high 7/10 | 1.76 | −51% | 25 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 4.4× as much debt as equity; operating profit cover |
| APPAppLovin | High 6/10 | 3.12 | +85% | 16 of 100 in | moves about 3.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity |
| AXONAxon Enterprise | High 6/10 | 1.52 | −5% | 20 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 1.2× |
| BTDRBitdeer Technologies | High 6/10 | 2.41 | +22% | 12 of 100 in | moves about 2.4× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.7× |
| CRWVCoreWeave | High 6/10 | 1.71 | – | 11 of 98 in | moves about 1.7× its index; carries 15.5× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 0.0× |
| HTZHertz | High 6/10 | 1.20 | −37% | 34 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit |
| LRCXLam Research | High 6/10 | 2.04 | +269% | 43 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 269% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| NPCENeuroPace | High 6/10 | 0.94 | +92% | 26 of 100 in | fell about 2.8× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| PLTRPalantir | High 6/10 | 2.48 | +380% | 68 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 380% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| SBUXStarbucks | High 6/10 | 1.13 | +1% | 28 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| STXSeagate Technology | High 6/10 | 1.99 | +601% | 29 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; is up 601% in two year |
| TERTeradyne | High 6/10 | 1.70 | +190% | 45 of 100 in | moves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 190% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| WDCWestern Digital | High 6/10 | 2.19 | +680% | 28 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 680% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| ASMLASML Holding | High 5/10 | 1.52 | +108% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 108% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| BKNGBooking Holdings | High 5/10 | 1.14 | −7% | 23 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| HOLOMicroCloud Hologram | High 5/10 | 2.89 | −99% | 12 of 100 in | moves about 2.9× its index; fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| LSCCLattice Semiconductor | High 5/10 | 2.03 | +133% | 47 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 3.7×; is up 133% in t |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology | High 5/10 | 2.00 | +0% | 31 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| MRVLMarvell Technology | High 5/10 | 2.20 | +265% | 63 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 265% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| NBISNebius Group | High 5/10 | 2.73 | – | 30 of 98 in | moves about 2.7× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.2× |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors | High 5/10 | 1.53 | −1% | 23 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| PRSOPeraso | High 5/10 | 0.80 | −77% | 16 of 100 in | fell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| TSLATesla | High 5/10 | 1.82 | +72% | 45 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ALABAstera Labs | Moderate 4/10 | 2.78 | +388% | 46 of 99 in | moves about 2.8× its index; is up 388% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals | Moderate 4/10 | 0.96 | −21% | 13 of 100 in | carries 3.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| AMATApplied Materials | Moderate 4/10 | 1.69 | +130% | 42 of 100 in | moves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| AVGOBroadcom | Moderate 4/10 | 2.49 | +100% | 36 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 100% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| CEGConstellation Energy | Moderate 4/10 | 1.51 | +12% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity |
| DASHDoorDash | Moderate 4/10 | 1.77 | +29% | 41 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| DDOGDatadog | Moderate 4/10 | 1.39 | +118% | 68 of 100 in | moves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| JPMJPMorgan Chase | Moderate 4/10 | 1.02 | +55% | 37 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity |
| KLACKLA | Moderate 4/10 | 1.86 | +132% | 42 of 100 in | moves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 132% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| MARMarriott | Moderate 4/10 | 0.96 | +44% | 67 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| METAMeta Platforms | Moderate 4/10 | 1.47 | +30% | 57 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| NAMMNamib Minerals | Moderate 4/10 | −2.48 | – | 19 of 98 in | owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| NVDANvidia | Moderate 4/10 | 2.15 | +70% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 2.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| SUPXSuperX AI Technology | Moderate 4/10 | 0.03 | +43% | 19 of 99 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| URIUnited Rentals | Moderate 4/10 | 1.41 | +32% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity |
| ABNBAirbnb | Moderate 3/10 | 1.29 | +23% | 48 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index; fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes |
| AMGNAmgen | Moderate 3/10 | 0.41 | +34% | 62 of 100 in | carries 6.6× as much debt as equity |
| AMZNAmazon | Moderate 3/10 | 1.47 | +37% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ARMArm Holdings | Moderate 3/10 | 2.82 | +69% | 30 of 100 in | moves about 2.8× its index |
| CARRCarrier Global | Moderate 3/10 | 1.23 | −31% | 24 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FCFranklin Covey | Moderate 3/10 | 1.17 | −54% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical | Moderate 3/10 | 1.22 | −13% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes |
| MELIMercadoLibre | Moderate 3/10 | 1.02 | −10% | 48 of 100 in | fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 2.0× as much debt as equity |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems | Moderate 3/10 | 2.20 | +43% | 48 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive | Moderate 3/10 | 0.21 | +9% | 34 of 100 in | owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| PYPLPayPal | Moderate 3/10 | 1.13 | −29% | 56 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| QCOMQualcomm | Moderate 3/10 | 1.79 | +9% | 32 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index |
| SNPSSynopsys | Moderate 3/10 | 1.61 | −8% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index |
| SPCXSpaceX | Moderate 3/10 | – | – | 35 of 59 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| STMSTMicroelectronics | Moderate 3/10 | 1.60 | +81% | 36 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive | Moderate 3/10 | 0.86 | +29% | 22 of 100 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| WDAYWorkday | Moderate 3/10 | 1.08 | −23% | 41 of 100 in | fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ADBEAdobe | Low 2/10 | 1.05 | −52% | 25 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ADIAnalog Devices | Low 2/10 | 1.56 | +83% | 64 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index |
| ADSKAutodesk | Low 2/10 | 1.05 | −18% | 48 of 100 in | fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power | Low 2/10 | −0.03 | +37% | 51 of 100 in | carries 1.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.8× |
| BKRBaker Hughes | Low 2/10 | 0.64 | +55% | 30 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners | Low 2/10 | 0.41 | +43% | 57 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems | Low 2/10 | 1.49 | +18% | 52 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| EIXEdison International | Low 2/10 | 0.20 | −26% | 38 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| EXCExelon | Low 2/10 | −0.09 | +15% | 38 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.5× |
| FERFerrovial | Low 2/10 | 0.70 | +28% | 23 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.4× |
| FLXSFlexsteel Industries | Low 2/10 | 0.73 | +118% | 62 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| GEHCGE HealthCare | Low 2/10 | 1.25 | −24% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index |
| GOOGLAlphabet | Low 2/10 | 1.21 | +118% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| HONAHoneywell Aerospace | Low 2/10 | – | – | 21 of 59 in | carries 1.9× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.9× |
| IDXXIDEXX Laboratories | Low 2/10 | 1.01 | +9% | 31 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| INTUIntuit | Low 2/10 | 0.68 | −50% | 33 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper | Low 2/10 | 0.18 | −5% | 67 of 100 in | |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | Low 2/10 | 1.30 | +113% | 66 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index; is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| RRyder System | Low 2/10 | 1.14 | +65% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; carries 2.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.7× |
| SNDKSandisk | Low 2/10 | 2.54 | – | 28 of 98 in | moves about 2.5× its index |
| XELXcel Energy | Low 2/10 | 0.11 | +28% | 45 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| BSXBoston Scientific | Low 1/10 | 0.77 | −50% | 26 of 100 in | |
| CMCSAComcast | Low 1/10 | 0.50 | −41% | 21 of 100 in | fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| CPRTCopart | Low 1/10 | 0.89 | −53% | 16 of 100 in | |
| CSCOCisco | Low 1/10 | 0.81 | +122% | 67 of 100 in | is up 122% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| DXCMDexCom | Low 1/10 | 1.06 | +23% | 44 of 100 in | fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FANGDiamondback Energy | Low 1/10 | 0.31 | +7% | 51 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FTNTFortinet | Low 1/10 | 1.03 | +130% | 74 of 100 in | is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| HONHoneywell | Low 1/10 | 0.76 | +1% | 31 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| LLYEli Lilly | Low 1/10 | 0.56 | +27% | 54 of 100 in | carries 2.1× as much debt as equity |
| MDTMedtronic | Low 1/10 | 0.38 | +11% | 49 of 100 in | |
| MSFTMicrosoft | Low 1/10 | 1.14 | +33% | 65 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index |
| NFLXNetflix | Low 1/10 | 1.07 | −3% | 24 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| NVONovo Nordisk | Low 1/10 | 1.06 | −66% | 24 of 100 in | |
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line | Low 1/10 | 0.99 | −7% | 43 of 100 in | |
| PDDPDD Holdings | Low 1/10 | 0.81 | −43% | 45 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| PEPPepsiCo | Low 1/10 | 0.14 | −21% | 28 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| PFEPfizer | Low 1/10 | 0.37 | +11% | 58 of 100 in | operating profit covers interest only 3.8× |
| ROSTRoss Stores | Low 1/10 | 0.66 | +61% | 29 of 100 in | fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| STHHSTMicroelectronics (currency-hedged ETF) | Low 1/10 | 1.46 | – | 34 of 98 in | moves about 1.5× its index |
| TMUST-Mobile US | Low 1/10 | 0.35 | −25% | 19 of 100 in | carries 2.0× as much debt as equity |
| TRNSTranscat | Low 1/10 | 1.00 | −31% | 42 of 100 in | operating profit covers interest only 2.7× |
| TXNTexas Instruments | Low 1/10 | 1.26 | +48% | 65 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index |
| AAPLApple | Low 0/10 | 1.04 | +51% | 66 of 100 in | |
| ADPADP | Low 0/10 | 0.52 | +1% | 59 of 100 in | |
| APAAPA Corp | Low 0/10 | 0.35 | +93% | 74 of 100 in | |
| COSTCostco | Low 0/10 | 0.48 | +9% | 54 of 100 in | |
| CSXCSX | Low 0/10 | 0.64 | +41% | 46 of 100 in | |
| CTASCintas | Low 0/10 | 0.70 | +1% | 62 of 100 in | |
| FASTFastenal | Low 0/10 | 0.61 | +40% | 63 of 100 in | |
| GILDGilead Sciences | Low 0/10 | 0.34 | +84% | 56 of 100 in | |
| LINLinde | Low 0/10 | 0.35 | +7% | 59 of 100 in | |
| MDLZMondelez | Low 0/10 | 0.06 | −7% | 46 of 100 in | |
| MNSTMonster Beverage | Low 0/10 | 0.40 | +69% | 43 of 100 in | |
| PAYXPaychex | Low 0/10 | 0.46 | −18% | 37 of 100 in | |
| PCARPaccar | Low 0/10 | 0.75 | +8% | 29 of 100 in | |
| REGNRegeneron | Low 0/10 | 0.63 | −25% | 37 of 100 in | |
| ROPRoper Technologies | Low 0/10 | 0.55 | −32% | 37 of 100 in | |
| TRIThomson Reuters | Low 0/10 | 0.54 | −34% | 52 of 100 in | |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals | Low 0/10 | 0.58 | +1% | 33 of 100 in | |
| WMTWalmart | Low 0/10 | 0.55 | +43% | 55 of 100 in | |
| XOMExxon Mobil | Low 0/10 | 0.01 | +50% | 77 of 100 in |
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.