Consumer & retail

Ross Stores (ROST)

$225.68 −0.1% on the day·+47.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold46 / 100

Hold: 46 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−11% from its 1-year high) scores 62 and lifts it; Plays in (29%) scores 29 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	ROST	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	29%	29	40	11.6
Off the high	−11% from its 1-year high	62	30	18.6
Trend	+3% vs 200-day	53	30	15.9

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ROST

Factor	ROST	Points	What it is
Plays in	29%	29	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+19% · 18 analysts	56	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.8 · buy	62	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	27.3×	46	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Forward P/E	25.2×	16	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	2.49	23	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	2.9×	60	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Price to book	10.7×	16	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Dividend yield	0.8%	23	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Earnings growth	+31%	60	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Revenue growth	+14%	52	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Profit margin	11%	49	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Return on equity	39%	90	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Debt to equity	0.15×	78	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Off the high	−11% from its 1-year high	62	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+3% vs 200-day	53	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+47%	76	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ROST

29 of the 100 plays hold ROST right now.
The trend-following and breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 3% above its 200-day average and 11% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $268.61, 19% above the close (18 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in29 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.03×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+3%). Higher than on 34% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ROST now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn ROST: right 21 of 50 · Out since Sep 15, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn ROST: right 33 of 76 · In since Jul 28, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn ROST: right 15 of 40 · In since Oct 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn ROST: right 120 of 190 · Out since Sep 21, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn ROST: right 23 of 34 · In since Jul 7, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn ROST: right 71 of 146 · In since Oct 7, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn ROST: right 25 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

ROST, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ROST lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 2−3.1% against the S&P 5002.0× a normal day

ROST −2.4%, the S&P 500 +0.7% that session; −5.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

HeadlineStockStory · Oct 2, 6:44 am ET
1 Consumer Stock for Long-Term Investors and 2 That Underwhelm

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ROST

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following5 of 30 in Breakouts & channels2 of 15 in Momentum8 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ROST went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $228.83 (+1.4%)	25% 159/643	+3.7% / +18.6%	−50.6% / −51.4%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $232.26 (+2.9%)	26% 29/111	+10.0% / +18.6%	−54.0% / −51.4%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $230.95 (+2.3%)	22% 81/365	+7.6% / +18.6%	−56.4% / −51.4%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −1.6%	Enter above $233.88 (+3.6%)	15% 34/226	+0.8% / +18.5%	−52.9% / −51.4%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above $229.14 (+1.5%)	31% 21/68	+11.1% / +18.6%	−31.2% / −51.4%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above $229.18 (+1.6%)	27% 24/88	+9.5% / +18.6%	−32.9% / −51.4%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +55.0%	Exit below $221.11 (−2.0%)	38% 13/34	+12.9% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2025 +60.7%	Exit below $218.87 (−3.0%)	18% 29/160	+10.5% / +18.6%	−32.5% / −51.4%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2025 +52.5%	Not on one close	32% 8/25	+11.4% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2025 +55.9%	Exit below $218.87 (−3.0%)	16% 20/129	+7.0% / +18.6%	−34.9% / −51.4%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −2.0%	Enter above $242.91 (+7.6%)	33% 45/135	+6.5% / +18.6%	−64.8% / −51.4%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $227.31 (+0.7%)	23% 175/763	+2.1% / +18.6%	−57.9% / −51.4%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.1%	Enter above $231.57 (+2.6%)	37% 99/265	+8.2% / +18.6%	−54.1% / −51.4%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 11, 2025 +55.8%	Not on one close	33% 8/24	+10.4% / +18.3%	−53.0% / −51.4%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −1.6%	Enter above $262.29 (+16.2%)	31% 40/127	+10.3% / +18.6%	−53.2% / −51.4%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −1.6%	Not on one close	29% 32/109	+9.5% / +18.6%	−70.9% / −51.4%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above $236.98 (+5.0%)	39% 49/127	+14.0% / +18.6%	−44.7% / −51.4%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.2%	Not on one close	51% 152/297	+12.0% / +18.6%	−44.1% / −51.4%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above $244.37 (+8.3%)	34% 180/537	+6.7% / +18.6%	−37.3% / −51.4%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above $239.73 (+6.2%)	40% 82/203	+11.3% / +18.6%	−54.5% / −51.4%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $232.48 (+3.0%)	38% 194/516	+6.4% / +18.6%	−40.5% / −51.4%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −3.9%	Not on one close	29% 39/133	+5.1% / +18.6%	−25.2% / −51.4%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $252.15 (+11.7%)	34% 58/169	+12.4% / +18.6%	−47.6% / −51.4%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above $231.31 (+2.5%)	37% 65/177	+12.0% / +18.6%	−43.9% / −51.4%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.1%	Enter above $344.77 (+52.8%)	41% 80/195	+14.5% / +18.6%	−31.5% / −51.4%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	36% 84/235	+6.8% / +18.6%	−48.3% / −51.4%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $250.49 (+11.0%)	35% 53/153	+12.0% / +18.6%	−52.3% / −51.4%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +0.2%	Enter above $267.34 (+18.5%)	35% 31/89	+12.8% / +18.6%	−48.0% / −51.4%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 −7.8%	Not on one close	38% 77/201	+7.1% / +18.6%	−32.0% / −51.4%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2025 +54.7%	Not on one close	42% 21/50	+1.9% / +18.6%	−9.1% / −51.4%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −4.8%	Exit below $220.10 (−2.5%)	37% 44/118	+10.6% / +18.6%	−58.0% / −51.4%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above $239.73 (+6.2%)	32% 47/145	+4.7% / +18.6%	−47.2% / −51.4%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $256.50 (+13.7%)	29% 29/99	+7.0% / +18.6%	−46.6% / −51.4%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above $254.74 (+12.9%)	35% 30/85	+8.5% / +18.6%	−37.0% / −51.4%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 12, 2026 −8.9%	Not on one close	35% 32/91	+10.0% / +18.6%	−38.2% / −51.4%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −7.7%	Enter above $242.78 (+7.6%)	28% 42/151	+2.1% / +18.6%	−34.5% / −51.4%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $240.30 (+6.5%)	34% 78/227	+4.0% / +18.6%	−41.4% / −51.4%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above $237.09 (+5.1%)	38% 59/155	+11.6% / +18.6%	−52.0% / −51.4%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above $238.14 (+5.5%)	40% 57/141	+12.9% / +18.6%	−50.7% / −51.4%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Jul 28, 2026 −9.9%	Exit below $218.40 (−3.2%)	43% 33/76	+11.8% / +18.6%	−35.3% / −51.4%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above $235.04 (+4.1%)	29% 89/305	+8.9% / +18.6%	−46.2% / −51.4%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 −11.3%	Not on one close	25% 46/186	−0.7% / +18.6%	−27.7% / −51.4%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	38% 62/162	+2.0% / +18.6%	−33.1% / −51.4%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −3.3%	Enter above $235.75 (+4.5%)	30% 225/749	−2.1% / +18.6%	−71.0% / −51.4%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Dec 31, 2025 +26.0%	Not on one close	27% 8/30	+3.4% / +18.6%	−12.2% / −51.4%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +43.2%	Exit below $163.43 (−27.6%)	30% 9/30	+9.9% / +18.3%	−56.1% / −51.4%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +43.2%	Not on one close	38% 15/40	+10.5% / +18.3%	−52.2% / −51.4%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +29.0%	Exit below $181.72 (−19.5%)	30% 11/37	+6.9% / +18.3%	−52.8% / −51.4%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Buy $232.01–$259.53 (+2.8%)	22% 33/147	+8.6% / +18.6%	−30.2% / −51.4%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +49.3%	Exit below $216.53 (−4.1%)	22% 5/23	+8.2% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −5.4%	Enter above $239.79 (+6.3%)	31% 33/105	+11.5% / +18.6%	−40.0% / −51.4%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above $232.37 (+3.0%)	30% 140/468	+4.4% / +18.6%	−53.1% / −51.4%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $227.53 (+0.8%)	26% 209/810	−1.0% / +18.6%	−66.0% / −51.4%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above $234.98 (+4.1%)	41% 119/289	+10.4% / +18.6%	−51.0% / −51.4%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +49.3%	Not on one close	33% 3/9	+16.4% / +19.4%	−51.4% / −51.4%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −3.3%	Enter above $241.88 (+7.2%)	24% 165/694	−2.0% / +18.6%	−55.8% / −51.4%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above $248.99 (+10.3%)	41% 108/261	+10.1% / +18.6%	−40.3% / −51.4%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $252.96 (+12.1%)	35% 58/167	+12.2% / +18.6%	−49.1% / −51.4%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −3.3%	Exit below $230.20 (+2.0%)	47% 36/76	+13.9% / +18.3%	−53.2% / −51.4%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +43.2%	Not on one close	39% 11/28	+7.7% / +19.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +26.0%	Not on one close	39% 13/33	+8.4% / +18.3%	−51.4% / −51.4%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above $236.51 (+4.8%)	35% 116/329	+7.9% / +18.6%	−55.6% / −51.4%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 7, 2025 +57.2%	Not on one close	66% 25/38	+11.4% / +18.6%	−41.0% / −51.4%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	59% 198/334	+3.2% / +18.6%	−51.8% / −51.4%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Sell above $225.84 (+0.1%)	65% 285/436	+10.3% / +18.6%	−49.5% / −51.4%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 −2.4%	Buy below $219.50 (−2.7%)	63% 120/190	+5.8% / +18.6%	−46.3% / −51.4%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	58% 79/137	+5.1% / +18.6%	−46.5% / −51.4%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +0.1%	Not on one close	56% 147/261	+2.4% / +18.6%	−52.1% / −51.4%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2025 +54.8%	Not on one close	60% 35/58	+8.4% / +18.6%	−41.5% / −51.4%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +3,968.6%	Sell above $529.02 (+134.4%)	–	+18.6% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Nov 27, 2018 +194.8%	Buy below $110.09 (−51.2%)	33% 2/6	+1.9% / +18.6%	−5.6% / −51.4%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $227.47 (+0.8%)	41% 124/300	+3.3% / +18.6%	−52.4% / −51.4%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	53% 237/448	+1.3% / +18.6%	−62.5% / −51.4%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Buy below $225.68 (0.0%)	56% 994/1780	+10.3% / +18.6%	−20.0% / −51.4%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −3.5%	Not on one close	57% 62/108	+4.4% / +18.6%	−46.3% / −51.4%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $221.04 (−2.1%)	33% 367/1113	−2.4% / +18.6%	−70.2% / −51.4%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −3.3%	Buy below $238.11 (+5.5%)	54% 63/117	+7.8% / +18.6%	−33.6% / −51.4%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	23% 196/839	−1.2% / +18.6%	−61.6% / −51.4%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −3.7%	Not on one close	42% 88/211	+9.3% / +18.6%	−49.1% / −51.4%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Jul 7, 2026 +5.3%	Not on one close	68% 23/34	+13.9% / +18.6%	−32.4% / −51.4%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jan 5, 2026 +21.6%	Not on one close	23% 30/129	+7.7% / +18.4%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $228.78 (+1.4%)	26% 201/779	+1.7% / +18.6%	−59.7% / −51.4%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above $253.19 (+12.2%)	37% 123/331	+11.0% / +18.6%	−37.8% / −51.4%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above $225.68 (+0.0%)	33% 202/615	+4.8% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −1.4%	Not on one close	32% 38/117	+6.8% / +18.4%	−46.2% / −51.4%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell $209.83–$226.88 (+0.5%)	32% 337/1039	+1.8% / +18.6%	−61.1% / −51.4%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +0.1%	Not on one close	49% 71/146	+5.1% / +18.6%	−52.5% / −51.4%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jun 23, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $227.49 (+0.8%)	40% 40/99	+10.4% / +18.6%	−56.3% / −51.4%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −1.1%	Not on one close	34% 20/58	−0.5% / +18.6%	−42.2% / −51.4%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −0.5%	Buys Oct 30	58% 25/43	+14.3% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 16, 2026 +2.1%	Enter above $229.54 (+1.7%)	56% 24/43	+12.9% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 −0.2%	Window opens Oct 16	53% 23/43	+15.4% / +18.6%	−51.4% / −51.4%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +21.6%	Buys Dec 23	41% 18/44	+3.3% / +18.6%	−6.8% / −51.4%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.3%	Buys Oct 29	50% 263/526	+3.6% / +18.6%	−38.8% / −51.4%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −3.3%	Sells Jun 30	64% 7/11	+6.7% / +18.6%	−28.2% / −51.4%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −2.0%	Buys Nov 24	46% 182/400	+2.4% / +18.6%	−11.7% / −51.4%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +102.1%	Not on one close	25% 5/20	+9.7% / +18.6%	−37.9% / −51.4%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.1%	Sells Oct 16	53% 1204/2284	+11.4% / +18.6%	−48.9% / −51.4%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +0.4%	Buys Oct 27	45% 155/348	+3.2% / +18.6%	−10.5% / −51.4%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Sells Oct 16	48% 260/541	+10.4% / +18.6%	−32.6% / −51.4%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+18.6%	−51.4%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Jan 2008 · back to its old high Jan 2008

ROST−21%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Dec 2020

ROST−51%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2022

ROST−37%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.66Moves about 0.7× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture−7%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -7% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+61%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−11%
Debt to equity0.77×
Net debt / EBITDA0.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover75.9×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Apparel Retail · Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. The company offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family. It sells its products to middle income households and households with lower to more moderate incomes. Ross Stores, Inc. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$72.4B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$24.5B	Total sales. The market values it at 3.0× sales.
P/E ratio	27.3×	Buyers pay $27 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	25.2×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	10.7×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	10.8%	Keeps 11¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+14.0%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+31.1%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	39.4%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$2.0B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$6.2B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$4.7B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$4.3B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.77×	Moderate.
Interest cover	75.9×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$268.61	19% above the close, from 18 analysts (range $187.00 to $310.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.75%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-08-01; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

ROST: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Consumer & retail: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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