How to read a Be The Puck page

Every page on Be The Puck that pairs a play with a stock answers three questions: what does the play say right now, what would make it change its mind, and how has it done in the past? This lesson walks through a real one: Meb Faber's 10-month moving average on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Open it in another tab and follow along.

1. The call: IN or OUT

The first box tells you the play's current position. IN means the play holds the stock. OUT means it has sold and is sitting in cash, which Be The Puck assumes earns the interest rate on US Treasury bills.

Right now the 10-month play on SPY is IN, and has been since Apr 30, 2026. The line underneath shows how much SPY has moved since that call, so you can see whether the call has been working.

2. The next move

The second box is the most useful thing on the page. It gives the closing price that would flip the play's call at its next check. For SPY it currently reads: "Stays in unless a month-end close lands below $722.21."

Be The Puck finds that number by asking the play itself what it would say at a range of possible closes. If SPY closes beyond it on the check date, the play changes its call; if not, nothing happens. The percentage beside it tells you how far the price would have to move. A level 1% away means the call is fragile; one 15% away means it would take a big move.

Some plays can't flip on a single close: an RSI crossover might need the indicator to dip first, and a calendar play only cares about the date. The box says so instead of showing a level.

The box also tells you when the play next looks. This one only checks once a month, on the last trading day, so a dip below the line in the middle of the month doesn't count.

Why only closing prices count

Prices jump around all day. A stock can dip below a moving average at 11 am and be back above it by 4 pm. If plays reacted to every intraday wiggle they would trade constantly and lose money on each round trip. So every play here waits for a finished close: the daily close at 4 pm New York time, Friday's close for weekly plays, or the last close of the month for monthly ones.

3. The price chart

The first chart shows the last two years of prices with the play's lines drawn on top. The background is shaded green while the play was IN and red while it was OUT. Plays that use an indicator, such as the RSI, get a second, smaller chart underneath with the trigger levels dashed. Hover over a chart (or tap it on a phone) to see the values on any day.

4. Growth of 10,000

The next chart starts both the play and buy-and-hold with 10,000 and shows how each would have grown since 2005, after trading costs. It uses a log scale so a 10% move looks the same size in 2008 as it does today. Here, the play turned out +513% overall, versus +861% for simply holding.

5. The record

The table compares the play with buy-and-hold on the same dates, over the full test and the last five years. For SPY the 10-month play's worst fall was −24.3% against −55.2% for holding. That trade-off, smaller losses for less growth, is typical. Later lessons explain each number.

6. Every call, graded

The last table lists the play's recent calls and marks each one right or wrong. An IN call is right if the price was higher by the time of the next call; an OUT call is right if it was lower. Don't be surprised by a low score. Trend plays are often wrong more than half the time and still do well, because their right calls tend to be much bigger than their wrong ones.