Guide
Pick your plays, build your signal
Be The Puck runs 100 published trading plays on every stock each night. You don't have to count all of them, and you decide what makes a Buy: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more. This page shows how each play is graded, which ones have been right most often, how your signal is scored, and how to make every page on the site follow your choices.
Try it in three steps
Your choice follows you around the site. Signed in, it's saved to your account; otherwise it stays in this browser.
- 1Choose your playsStart from a ready-made set, then tick plays in or out. Each one shows how often its calls were right.
- 2Screen the market with themOn the home page, step 4 counts only your plays. Sort by Most accurate plays agree to give each play a vote in line with its record. Open the screener
- 3Check one stockEach stock page's Plays in tile, its most accurate plays and the full list follow your choice, with how often each play was right on that stock. See NVDA
The stock list (Plays in, Score and the sorts), the watchlist and My Puck follow your choice too. To share a view, add ?plays=top1 (or top3, half, all) to any link.
How a play is graded
Each time a play switches in or out, that's a call. A call is right when the stock rose while the play was in (from that call to its next one), or fell while it was out.
Every play is tested the same way on the 351 real stocks Be The Puck covers (no funds, indexes or coins) since 2005: 7,552,632 finished calls in all. The percentage next to each play is its share of calls that were right.
To be ranked, a play needs at least 500 finished calls, on at least half the stocks, so a rule that rarely fires can't top its family on a handful of calls.
Right often isn't the same as making the most money. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run below half. Dip-buying plays win often but small. Each play's record against simply holding is in the guides.
The Mayer Multiple
The price divided by its 200-day average. Trace Mayer found that buying bitcoin below 2.4 times its 200-day average worked best over time; above it was bubble territory.
On every stock page the Mayer Multiple tile shows where the stock sits now, how often it has been higher since 2005, and the 2.4 line. A reading of 1.47, say, means the price is 47% above its 200-day average.
Be The Puck's Mayer play holds below 2.4 and steps aside above it (selling above 2.4 is our reading; Mayer used the line to decide when to keep buying). Across the 351 stocks its calls were right 83% of the time, but on only 669 calls on 66 stocks: few stocks ever run to 2.4 times their average, so it rarely says anything. That's why it has its own tile instead of a place in the rankings.
Your signal
Build your own Buy, Hold and Sell
Your signal is Be The Puck's one call on a stock, and it's yours to set: weight any of 18 factors, from the plays and analysts to P/E, growth, debt, trend and crash exposure. Each factor scores a stock from 0 to 100, higher meaning more in favour of buying. Your score is the weighted average of the factors you weight, and your lines turn it into a signal: Buy at 60 or more, Sell at 40 or less and Hold in between, unless you move them.
Company numbers like P/E score by rank: a P/E lower than 80% of the 351 stocks we cover scores 80. A loss-maker scores 0 on P/E. A stock with no number for a factor (a fund has no P/E) is scored on the rest, and gets no score if less than half your weight applies. The standard weights are 40% Plays in, 30% Off the high and 30% Trend: only factors with a tested record, and most of the weight on the price's own exit rules, so a stock that keeps falling loses its Buy. Put every weight on the plays and you get the old plays-only reading.
An example. On the Oct 13, 2026 close, 65% of the plays held Shopify (SHOP), which scores 65. Off the high: at its 1-year high, which scores 100. Trend: +40% vs 200-day, which scores 97. With the standard weights its score is 85: Buy. Put every weight on the plays and it scores 65: Buy. Neither is right or wrong; the weights say what you think matters.
- Plays in 40, Off the high 30, Trend 30 · edge +6.0 pts over a year
- Plays in 50, Analysts' upside 50 · edge +4.4 pts over a year (graded on 50% of its weight)
- Plays in 100 · edge +4.4 pts over a year
- Plays in 20, P/E 20, Forward P/E 20, Price to sales 15, Dividend yield 15, Price to book 10 · edge +3.9 pts over a year (graded on 80% of its weight)
- Plays in 25, Revenue growth 25, Earnings growth 25, PEG 15, Analysts' upside 10 · edge −0.4 pts over a year (graded on 75% of its weight)
- Plays in 20, Return on equity 20, Profit margin 20, Debt to equity 20, Low crash exposure 20 · edge +2.0 pts over a year (graded on 80% of its weight)
- Plays in 40, Trend 30, 1-year momentum 30 · edge +4.6 pts over a year
- Plays in 30, Analysts' upside 10, Forward P/E 10, Earnings growth 10, Return on equity 10, Debt to equity 10, 1-year momentum 10, Low crash exposure 10 · edge +4.9 pts over a year (graded on 70% of its weight)
How each factor has done. Every month since 2011, each stock got its points on each factor from the numbers public at the time (prices, the plays' calls, and company figures as filed with the SEC), then we checked whether it beat its market over the next three months and the next year. The edge is how much more often a factor's Buys (60 points or more) beat the market than its Avoids (40 or less). The strongest over a year: off the high (+6.4 pts), plays in (+4.4 pts), trend (+4.2 pts). Return on equity and earnings growth had no edge at all: the stocks they rated highly did no better. Of the ready-made mixes, Plays + exit rules has the best record (+6.0 pts). Small edges are the norm, and these use today's list of stocks, which flatters every factor alike. Analysts' targets and ratings, forward P/E, PEG and crash exposure have no record of past values, so they can't be tested this way.
| Factor | Edge, 3 months | Edge, 1 year | What it measures, and its record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays inPlays and analysts | +1.9 pts | +4.4 pts | The share of the plays you count that hold it now.Over a year its Buys beat the market 59% of the time, its Avoids 55%. |
| Analysts' upsidePlays and analysts | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.Not graded: no record of past analyst targets. |
| Analysts' ratingPlays and analysts | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.Not graded: no record of past analyst ratings. |
| P/EValue | +1.9 pts | +2.9 pts | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0.Over a year its Buys beat the market 61% of the time, its Avoids 58%. |
| Forward P/EValue | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0.Not graded: no record of past earnings estimates. |
| PEGValue | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.Not graded: no record of past growth estimates. |
| Price to salesValue | +1.8 pts | +3.5 pts | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 61% of the time, its Avoids 58%. |
| Price to bookValue | +0.6 pts | +0.9 pts | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 58% of the time, its Avoids 58%. |
| Dividend yieldValue | +0.8 pts | +0.7 pts | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0.Over a year its Buys beat the market 59% of the time, its Avoids 58%. |
| Earnings growthGrowth and quality | −1.1 pts | −4.6 pts | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 56% of the time, its Avoids 61%. |
| Revenue growthGrowth and quality | +1.7 pts | +3.3 pts | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 59% of the time, its Avoids 56%. |
| Profit marginGrowth and quality | +2.2 pts | +0.9 pts | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 59% of the time, its Avoids 58%. |
| Return on equityGrowth and quality | +1.5 pts | −1.2 pts | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 57% of the time, its Avoids 58%. |
| Debt to equityGrowth and quality | +1.4 pts | +1.5 pts | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0.Over a year its Buys beat the market 58% of the time, its Avoids 57%. |
| Off the highPrice and risk | +3.7 pts | +6.4 pts | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.Over a year its Buys beat the market 59% of the time, its Avoids 53%. |
| TrendPrice and risk | +2.9 pts | +4.2 pts | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 59% of the time, its Avoids 54%. |
| 1-year momentumPrice and risk | +3.5 pts | +3.2 pts | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.Over a year its Buys beat the market 58% of the time, its Avoids 55%. |
| Low crash exposurePrice and risk | – | – | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.Not graded: the storm test is built from today's balance sheet. |
Signals and scores are mechanical summaries of the numbers you choose to weight, not advice. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.
The most accurate play in each family
Ranked by share of calls right on 351 stocks since 2005. The ready-made set Most accurate in each family counts these seven.
| Family | Most accurate play | Calls right | Family average | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | Holy Grail | 42% | 30% | 30 |
| Breakouts & channels | P&F Double Top | 37% | 32% | 15 |
| Momentum | 12-1 Momentum | 44% | 32% | 17 |
| Mean reversion | Bollinger Reversion | 64% | 53% | 15 |
| Volume & money flow | Money Flow Index | 59% | 32% | 9 |
| Candles & chart patterns | Engulfing Switch | 50% | 44% | 3 |
| Calendar | Halloween Indicator | 54% | 49% | 11 |
Every play, by how often it was right
Tick plays in or out here, or use the chooser. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play (tick to count it) | Family | Calls right | Calls | Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayer Multiple Too few calls to rank | Mean reversion | 83% | 669 | 66 |
| Bollinger Reversion Top in family | Mean reversion | 64% | 53,095 | 351 |
| Stochastic 20/80 | Mean reversion | 63% | 45,023 | 351 |
| Double 7s | Mean reversion | 63% | 105,524 | 348 |
| RSI 30/70 | Mean reversion | 62% | 11,160 | 348 |
| DeMark 9-Count | Mean reversion | 62% | 20,521 | 351 |
| Williams %R | Mean reversion | 61% | 80,351 | 351 |
| RSI(2) Pullback | Mean reversion | 59% | 83,371 | 348 |
| 1-Month Reversal | Mean reversion | 59% | 37,634 | 350 |
| ConnorsRSI Pullback | Mean reversion | 59% | 7,929 | 342 |
| Money Flow Index Top in family | Volume & money flow | 59% | 13,925 | 350 |
| Connors %b | Mean reversion | 58% | 25,692 | 347 |
| IBS Reversion | Mean reversion | 57% | 521,600 | 351 |
| StochRSI 20/80 | Mean reversion | 55% | 123,666 | 351 |
| Halloween Indicator Top in family | Calendar | 54% | 12,345 | 349 |
| Seasonal Timing | Calendar | 54% | 12,300 | 349 |
| Best Six + MACD | Calendar | 54% | 12,466 | 351 |
| Engulfing Switch Top in family | Candles & chart patterns | 50% | 38,976 | 351 |
| Weekend Effect | Calendar | 50% | 655,356 | 351 |
| Lunar Cycle | Calendar | 49% | 155,248 | 351 |
| Pre-Holiday | Calendar | 49% | 112,627 | 351 |
| Turn of the Month | Calendar | 49% | 150,894 | 351 |
| Pre-FOMC Drift | Calendar | 47% | 99,821 | 351 |
| Santa Claus Rally | Calendar | 47% | 12,541 | 349 |
| Laguerre RSI | Mean reversion | 47% | 92,592 | 351 |
| Presidential Sweet Spot | Calendar | 46% | 3,172 | 351 |
| 12-1 Momentum Top in family | Momentum | 44% | 8,156 | 343 |
| Turtle Soup Plus One | Candles & chart patterns | 44% | 15,755 | 348 |
| Frog in the Pan | Momentum | 44% | 8,660 | 342 |
| Holy Grail Top in family | Trend following | 42% | 12,813 | 348 |
| Market-State Momentum | Momentum | 42% | 6,958 | 332 |
| Williams Alligator | Trend following | 41% | 89,186 | 350 |
| January Barometer | Calendar | 41% | 5,520 | 332 |
| Chaikin Money Flow | Volume & money flow | 39% | 58,195 | 351 |
| Know Sure Thing | Momentum | 39% | 88,121 | 351 |
| TRIX Signal Cross | Momentum | 38% | 76,002 | 349 |
| Parabolic SAR | Trend following | 38% | 137,616 | 351 |
| Aroon | Trend following | 37% | 62,510 | 351 |
| Dual Momentum | Momentum | 37% | 9,232 | 344 |
| Fisher Transform | Mean reversion | 37% | 302,549 | 351 |
| P&F Double Top Top in family | Breakouts & channels | 37% | 36,314 | 351 |
| Schaff Trend Cycle | Trend following | 37% | 67,322 | 349 |
| Coppock Curve | Momentum | 36% | 4,334 | 325 |
| Four-Week Rule | Breakouts & channels | 36% | 35,756 | 350 |
| TTM Squeeze | Breakouts & channels | 36% | 39,031 | 350 |
| Hull Moving Average | Trend following | 36% | 40,137 | 349 |
| TEMA Crossover | Trend following | 36% | 73,285 | 349 |
| Golden Cross | Trend following | 36% | 8,644 | 344 |
| Chandelier Exit | Breakouts & channels | 35% | 55,125 | 350 |
| Supertrend | Trend following | 35% | 45,338 | 350 |
| Wilder Volatility System | Breakouts & channels | 35% | 52,529 | 350 |
| 12-Month Momentum | Momentum | 35% | 8,026 | 343 |
| Zweig 4% Model | Trend following | 35% | 67,277 | 350 |
| Klinger Oscillator | Volume & money flow | 35% | 255,522 | 349 |
| Vortex Indicator | Trend following | 35% | 162,033 | 351 |
| Darvas Box | Breakouts & channels | 35% | 32,998 | 350 |
| Chaikin Oscillator | Volume & money flow | 35% | 163,973 | 351 |
| Hikkake | Candles & chart patterns | 35% | 27,518 | 351 |
| 52-Week High | Momentum | 35% | 6,137 | 344 |
| Negative Volume Index | Volume & money flow | 34% | 32,013 | 341 |
| 13612W Momentum | Momentum | 34% | 22,527 | 347 |
| Elder Triple Screen | Trend following | 34% | 57,938 | 349 |
| Buff Averages | Volume & money flow | 34% | 105,328 | 351 |
| MACD Signal Cross | Momentum | 34% | 125,978 | 350 |
| PMO Signal Cross | Momentum | 33% | 96,144 | 349 |
| Bollinger Breakout | Breakouts & channels | 33% | 62,870 | 350 |
| NR7 Breakout | Breakouts & channels | 33% | 193,125 | 351 |
| ADX Trend | Trend following | 32% | 45,817 | 350 |
| Bollinger Squeeze | Breakouts & channels | 32% | 11,085 | 346 |
| Keltner Channel | Breakouts & channels | 32% | 44,641 | 350 |
| Volume Flow Indicator | Volume & money flow | 32% | 29,551 | 344 |
| MAMA/FAMA Cross | Trend following | 31% | 65,853 | 350 |
| Turtle System 1 | Breakouts & channels | 31% | 40,031 | 350 |
| 10-Month SMA | Trend following | 30% | 11,575 | 344 |
| Clenow Trend | Breakouts & channels | 30% | 28,096 | 348 |
| Turtle System 2 | Breakouts & channels | 30% | 27,536 | 350 |
| Zero Lag EC Cross | Trend following | 29% | 47,309 | 349 |
| Elder Impulse | Momentum | 29% | 219,119 | 351 |
| TSI Zero Line | Momentum | 29% | 52,415 | 349 |
| DP Trend Model | Trend following | 29% | 29,344 | 349 |
| MACD Zero Line | Trend following | 29% | 53,654 | 349 |
| CCI +100 | Momentum | 28% | 171,377 | 351 |
| Levy Relative Strength | Momentum | 28% | 34,073 | 349 |
| Guppy Multiple MAs | Trend following | 28% | 38,635 | 349 |
| Ichimoku Cloud | Trend following | 28% | 34,275 | 350 |
| Force Index | Volume & money flow | 28% | 195,685 | 351 |
| Acceleration Bands | Breakouts & channels | 28% | 53,401 | 350 |
| On-Balance Volume | Volume & money flow | 27% | 203,203 | 351 |
| Chande Kroll Stop | Breakouts & channels | 27% | 97,135 | 351 |
| Bull Market Support Band | Trend following | 26% | 31,505 | 348 |
| PB EMA | Trend following | 26% | 181,808 | 351 |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RS | Trend following | 26% | 26,308 | 347 |
| Seykota 15/150 | Trend following | 25% | 8,615 | 342 |
| Kaufman Adaptive MA | Trend following | 24% | 225,324 | 350 |
| Stage Analysis | Trend following | 23% | 21,866 | 347 |
| Ripster EMA Cloud | Trend following | 22% | 107,045 | 349 |
| Stocks on the Move | Momentum | 20% | 41,445 | 342 |
| Trend Template | Trend following | 18% | 44,574 | 346 |
| Granville 200-Day | Trend following | 15% | 33,606 | 345 |
| 200-Day Rule | Trend following | 14% | 49,733 | 346 |
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.