Guide · Mean reversion
Does IBS Reversion work?
Across 375 stocks, IBS Reversion cut the worst fall on 92%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 26% and on raw return on 19%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
Internal bar strength is where the close lands in the day's range. A close near the low has tended to bounce the next day, so buy those closes and hold for one day.
- IBS = (close − low) ÷ (high − low). 0 means it closed at the low, 1 at the high.
- In at the close when IBS is below 0.2.
- Out at the next close unless IBS is below 0.2 again.
Mean reversion plays bet that short, sharp moves tend to snap back. The family guide
How to use it
- It trades often (about 83 switches a year per stock), so costs, spreads and taxes eat into it more than the backtest's 0.05% per switch suggests.
- It sits in cash much of the time (holding on about 21% of days), so judge it on risk-adjusted return rather than on matching a rising market.
- It worked best on Metals & mining (65% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Software & devices (9%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
IBS Reversion did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+53% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−36%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBS Reversion | +53% | −13% | +26% | −36% | +9% | −12% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Metals & mining | 65% | +0.16 |
| Micro caps | 50% | +0.03 |
| Semiconductors | 35% | -0.09 |
| Industrials & rentals | 33% | -0.15 |
| Media & telecom | 30% | -0.30 |
| Sectors | 25% | -0.21 |
| Consumer & retail | 24% | -0.21 |
| Industrials & materials | 20% | -0.25 |
| Energy & power | 19% | -0.40 |
| Big tech | 17% | -0.27 |
| Financials | 15% | -0.40 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 14% | -0.44 |
| Healthcare | 11% | -0.24 |
| Real estate | 11% | -0.32 |
| Software & devices | 9% | -0.29 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
IBS Reversion holds 61 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.