Financials

National Bank of Canada (NA)

C$202.31 +2.1% on the day·+38.7% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Hold46 / 100

Hold: 46 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−13% from its 1-year high) scores 55 and lifts it; Plays in (35%) scores 35 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	NA	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	35%	35	40	14.0
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	55	30	16.5
Trend	+2% vs 200-day	50	30	15.0

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for NA

Factor	NA	Points	What it is
Plays in	35%	35	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+11% · 12 analysts	44	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.8 · hold	12	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	16.9×	74	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	14.1×	59	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.31	54	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	5.3×	34	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	2.3×	66	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	2.7%	63	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+26%	56	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+17%	57	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	33%	88	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	14%	58	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	–	–	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0.
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	55	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+2% vs 200-day	50	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+39%	71	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	2/10 · low	80	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on NA

35 of the 100 plays hold NA right now.
The mean-reversion plays mostly say in; the trend-following and breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 2% above its 200-day average and 13% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it carries 2.5× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$223.75, 11% above the close (12 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in35 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.02×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+2%). Higher than on 33% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about NA now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn NA: right 20 of 54 · Out since Jul 29, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn NA: right 15 of 35 · Out since Oct 8, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn NA: right 11 of 26 · In since Dec 29, 2023 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn NA: right 103 of 169 · In since Sep 30, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn NA: right 28 of 46 · Out since Mar 2, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn NA: right 69 of 126 · In since Sep 25, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn NA: right 23 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

NA, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved NA lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Oct 8−2.0% against the S&P/TSX1.8× a normal day

NA −1.7%, the S&P/TSX +0.3% that session.

HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 7, 4:33 pm ET
National Bank of Canada stock falls Wednesday, underperforms market
HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 8, 4:33 pm ETafter that close
National Bank of Canada stock falls Thursday, underperforms market
HeadlineAD HOC NEWS · Oct 8, 4:10 pm ETafter that close
National Bank of Canada stock loses 1.76 percent after-hours to EUR 122.55

Wed Sep 30−1.6% against the S&P/TSX1.4× a normal day

NA −2.3%, the S&P/TSX −0.6% that session; −2.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NA was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NA starts Oct 5, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.6%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.8% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 2+1.4% against the S&P/TSX1.1× a normal day

NA +2.2%, the S&P/TSX +0.7% that session; +0.8% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NA was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NA starts Oct 5, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.7%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Next earnings report

Wed Dec 2, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.36.

Over its last 12 reports, NA's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±3.8% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
NA after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 15 of 22 times (median +2.1%).
NA after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 9 of 10 times (median −0.9%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on NA

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following5 of 30 in Breakouts & channels0 of 15 in Momentum7 of 17 in Mean reversion12 of 15 in Volume & money flow6 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on NA went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −3.0%	Enter above C$205.37 (+1.5%)	32% 166/513	+12.9% / +14.7%	−33.4% / −58.5%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −4.0%	Enter above C$216.74 (+7.1%)	29% 28/95	+11.9% / +14.7%	−25.4% / −58.5%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$210.40 (+4.0%)	30% 84/281	+14.3% / +14.7%	−37.2% / −58.5%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$213.38 (+5.5%)	29% 23/79	+7.3% / +14.3%	−13.0% / −58.5%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$209.94 (+3.8%)	19% 15/77	+9.1% / +14.7%	−24.3% / −58.5%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$209.94 (+3.8%)	35% 37/105	+8.2% / +14.7%	−25.6% / −58.5%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +56.3%	Exit below C$198.61 (−1.8%)	50% 14/28	+11.8% / +14.7%	−48.2% / −58.5%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below C$198.30 (−2.0%)	16% 24/148	+11.2% / +14.7%	−40.8% / −58.5%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jun 20, 2025 +55.9%	Not on one close	33% 10/30	+8.7% / +14.7%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below C$198.30 (−2.0%)	15% 17/114	+9.8% / +14.7%	−26.9% / −58.5%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −6.8%	Enter above C$226.20 (+11.8%)	41% 54/131	+10.6% / +14.7%	−41.7% / −58.5%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Aug 18, 2026 −9.9%	Enter above C$204.20 (+0.9%)	30% 210/707	+11.8% / +14.7%	−43.3% / −58.5%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −0.4%	Enter above C$204.58 (+1.1%)	42% 98/236	+8.5% / +14.7%	−43.1% / −58.5%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Apr 25, 2025 +77.8%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+11.1% / +14.4%	−38.9% / −58.5%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −6.8%	Enter above C$280.18 (+38.5%)	39% 42/107	+12.9% / +14.7%	−25.3% / −58.5%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −4.5%	Not on one close	33% 35/107	+11.1% / +14.7%	−42.2% / −58.5%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$207.64 (+2.6%)	41% 64/155	+12.1% / +14.7%	−45.7% / −58.5%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 −6.2%	Not on one close	45% 123/273	+8.1% / +14.7%	−40.0% / −58.5%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −2.8%	Enter above C$218.87 (+8.2%)	39% 198/502	+9.2% / +14.7%	−40.1% / −58.5%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 −9.9%	Enter above C$215.86 (+6.7%)	37% 77/209	+8.3% / +14.7%	−40.9% / −58.5%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −2.8%	Enter above C$205.32 (+1.5%)	41% 200/490	+7.7% / +14.7%	−55.6% / −58.5%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 5, 2026 −10.1%	Enter above C$211.76 (+4.7%)	35% 64/183	+5.9% / +14.7%	−21.1% / −58.5%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −6.1%	Enter above C$248.94 (+23.1%)	32% 51/157	+10.2% / +14.7%	−45.3% / −58.5%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −6.8%	Enter above C$205.98 (+1.8%)	35% 50/143	+6.8% / +14.7%	−59.7% / −58.5%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$386.68 (+91.1%)	39% 78/201	+10.2% / +14.7%	−44.4% / −58.5%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Jul 23, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above C$202.42 (+0.1%)	43% 93/217	+11.2% / +14.7%	−34.1% / −58.5%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −6.1%	Enter above C$245.58 (+21.4%)	36% 43/121	+10.1% / +14.7%	−42.4% / −58.5%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −2.8%	Enter above C$296.08 (+46.4%)	34% 29/85	+12.2% / +14.7%	−28.0% / −58.5%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Jul 24, 2026 −10.5%	Not on one close	40% 71/176	+4.5% / +14.7%	−27.3% / −58.5%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 −8.7%	Not on one close	37% 20/54	+2.3% / +14.7%	−10.4% / −58.5%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −6.1%	Enter above C$214.63 (+6.1%)	42% 49/117	+11.7% / +14.7%	−36.1% / −58.5%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 −8.7%	Enter above C$224.05 (+10.7%)	44% 56/127	+11.7% / +14.7%	−13.3% / −58.5%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −6.1%	Enter above C$232.24 (+14.8%)	37% 31/83	+10.9% / +14.7%	−18.9% / −58.5%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$230.26 (+13.8%)	39% 40/103	+9.0% / +14.7%	−19.8% / −58.5%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −6.1%	Not on one close	35% 37/107	+8.2% / +14.7%	−23.4% / −58.5%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 −8.7%	Enter above C$215.83 (+6.7%)	35% 52/149	+8.3% / +14.7%	−16.7% / −58.5%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 23, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above C$217.80 (+7.7%)	35% 68/193	+6.4% / +14.7%	−31.2% / −58.5%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 −8.7%	Enter above C$213.50 (+5.5%)	42% 75/177	+10.5% / +14.7%	−42.4% / −58.5%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$207.06 (+2.3%)	38% 68/177	+10.2% / +14.7%	−45.9% / −58.5%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above C$236.40 (+16.9%)	43% 15/35	+12.9% / +14.7%	−43.9% / −58.5%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$208.18 (+2.9%)	30% 99/331	+9.6% / +14.7%	−50.0% / −58.5%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 −8.8%	Not on one close	32% 70/218	+4.2% / +14.7%	−13.4% / −58.5%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	May 28, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	37% 46/124	+2.1% / +14.7%	−31.6% / −58.5%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +1.8%	Enter above C$203.98 (+0.8%)	38% 245/642	+12.3% / +14.7%	−27.3% / −58.5%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Dec 4, 2024 +58.8%	Not on one close	27% 12/44	+2.1% / +14.7%	−5.2% / −58.5%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +119.0%	Exit below C$158.27 (−21.8%)	33% 8/24	+10.6% / +14.9%	−48.2% / −58.5%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +119.0%	Not on one close	42% 11/26	+12.1% / +14.9%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2025 +77.8%	Exit below C$175.99 (−13.0%)	53% 17/32	+7.5% / +14.9%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −5.1%	Not on one close	26% 30/115	+11.2% / +14.7%	−25.0% / −58.5%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +119.0%	Exit below C$198.78 (−1.7%)	42% 5/12	+10.4% / +14.7%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −6.8%	Enter above C$221.51 (+9.5%)	35% 42/120	+9.3% / +14.7%	−27.0% / −58.5%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −0.4%	Enter above C$203.97 (+0.8%)	39% 161/414	+8.2% / +14.7%	−30.0% / −58.5%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −3.0%	Enter above C$202.99 (+0.3%)	36% 233/654	+12.6% / +14.7%	−34.3% / −58.5%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.2%	Enter above C$223.72 (+10.6%)	41% 117/288	+8.6% / +14.7%	−30.1% / −58.5%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jan 31, 2023 +131.0%	Not on one close	44% 4/9	+13.9% / +14.1%	−48.2% / −58.5%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Aug 18, 2026 −9.9%	Enter above C$218.57 (+8.0%)	31% 185/602	+7.4% / +14.7%	−35.1% / −58.5%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$235.89 (+16.6%)	38% 105/274	+6.7% / +14.7%	−46.0% / −58.5%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −6.1%	Enter above C$250.80 (+24.0%)	34% 52/155	+10.4% / +14.7%	−45.6% / −58.5%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −0.4%	Enter above C$203.74 (+0.7%)	42% 24/57	+14.6% / +14.9%	−26.2% / −58.5%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +119.0%	Not on one close	38% 9/24	+10.2% / +14.5%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +119.0%	Not on one close	40% 12/30	+11.6% / +14.9%	−48.2% / −58.5%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 −2.6%	Enter above C$211.17 (+4.4%)	40% 125/316	+9.4% / +14.7%	−32.2% / −58.5%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	56% 23/41	+5.9% / +14.7%	−58.5% / −58.5%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −0.9%	Not on one close	56% 180/324	+0.3% / +14.7%	−47.3% / −58.5%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 −2.8%	Sell above C$204.22 (+0.9%)	59% 235/397	+0.3% / +14.7%	−51.8% / −58.5%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.4%	Sell above C$205.88 (+1.8%)	61% 103/169	+2.9% / +14.7%	−49.4% / −58.5%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Aug 25, 2026 −8.5%	Not on one close	65% 103/159	+6.2% / +14.7%	−47.5% / −58.5%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Aug 25, 2026 −8.5%	Not on one close	67% 170/253	+10.3% / +14.7%	−45.0% / −58.5%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 −0.2%	Not on one close	60% 49/81	+6.2% / +14.7%	−37.9% / −58.5%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,928.3%	Sell above C$479.29 (+136.9%)	–	+14.7% / +14.7%	−58.5% / −58.5%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jun 2, 2026 +1.7%	Not on one close	40% 4/10	+2.0% / +14.7%	−16.0% / −58.5%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −6.6%	Not on one close	51% 151/295	+9.4% / +14.7%	−58.6% / −58.5%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −0.9%	Exit below C$202.04 (−0.1%)	61% 251/414	+16.4% / +14.7%	−30.2% / −58.5%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Buy below C$202.31 (0.0%)	55% 842/1544	−3.9% / +14.7%	−67.7% / −58.5%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Aug 21, 2026 −6.8%	Sell above C$212.49 (+5.0%)	55% 59/107	+2.6% / +14.7%	−45.0% / −58.5%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	42% 415/999	+12.6% / +14.7%	−45.0% / −58.5%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 −4.3%	Sell above C$207.21 (+2.4%)	56% 79/142	+7.9% / +14.7%	−47.0% / −58.5%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$202.31 (0.0%)	31% 197/639	+9.7% / +14.7%	−49.0% / −58.5%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 −5.2%	Not on one close	41% 77/188	+8.1% / +14.7%	−29.6% / −58.5%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Mar 2, 2026 +8.1%	Not on one close	61% 28/46	+8.5% / +14.7%	−25.7% / −58.5%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Mar 17, 2025 +80.7%	Exit below C$190.01 (−6.1%)	43% 46/108	+10.9% / +14.9%	−60.9% / −58.5%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$201.86 (−0.2%)	32% 201/630	+12.4% / +14.7%	−39.7% / −58.5%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 −8.3%	Enter above C$239.81 (+18.5%)	39% 126/321	+9.4% / +14.7%	−42.7% / −58.5%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	41% 218/533	+11.5% / +14.7%	−39.9% / −58.5%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	May 15, 2025 +65.4%	Not on one close	24% 22/90	+8.7% / +14.8%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −0.4%	Buy C$200.37–C$229.74 (−1.0%)	36% 322/900	+9.3% / +14.7%	−51.1% / −58.5%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −4.1%	Not on one close	55% 69/126	+11.0% / +14.7%	−20.1% / −58.5%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −4.5%	Not on one close	37% 30/82	+7.5% / +14.7%	−27.6% / −58.5%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 +13.8%	Not on one close	37% 17/46	0.0% / +14.7%	−25.7% / −58.5%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −0.1%	Buys Oct 30	53% 23/43	+7.8% / +14.7%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above C$200.22 (−1.0%)	49% 21/43	+7.4% / +14.7%	−48.2% / −58.5%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 29, 2026 +1.8%	Window opens Oct 16	60% 26/43	+8.2% / +14.7%	−48.8% / −58.5%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +17.5%	Buys Dec 23	41% 18/44	+2.5% / +14.7%	−6.3% / −58.5%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.2%	Buys Oct 29	45% 236/526	+1.1% / +14.7%	−30.4% / −58.5%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.4%	Sells Jun 30	27% 3/11	+3.0% / +14.7%	−23.2% / −58.5%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −6.6%	Buys Nov 24	49% 191/386	+2.0% / +14.7%	−10.3% / −58.5%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +153.1%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+7.5% / +14.7%	−29.4% / −58.5%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1160/2284	+5.8% / +14.7%	−58.2% / −58.5%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −3.0%	Buys Oct 27	49% 169/348	+2.9% / +14.7%	−6.0% / −58.5%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −0.1%	Sells Oct 16	47% 253/541	+7.2% / +14.7%	−33.9% / −58.5%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+14.7%	−58.5%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow2 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt1/3
Run-up0/2

It carries 2.5× as much debt as equity.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Dec 2008 · back to its old high Jun 2009

NA−52%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Sep 2020

NA−48%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2022

NA−13%

TSX−14%

Beta0.85Moves about 0.9× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture151%In months the TSX fell, this fell 151% as much on average.
Two-year change+65%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−13%
Debt to equity2.47×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Banks - Diversified · National Bank of Canada provides financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional clients, and governments in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management, Financial Markets, and U.S. Specialty Finance and International. The Personal and Commercial segment offers banking, financing, and investing services to individuals, advisors, and businesses, as well as insurance operations.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$77.5B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$14.6B	Total sales. The market values it at 5.3× sales.
P/E ratio	16.9×	Buyers pay C$17 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	14.1×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	2.3×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	33.3%	Keeps 33¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+17.3%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+26.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	14.3%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$33.8B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$83.5B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$232B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	2.47×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$223.75	11% above the close, from 12 analysts (range C$168.00 to C$248.00).
Consensus rating	Hold	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	2.67%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

NA: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Financials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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