Guides
Which predictions actually work?
Every trading play is a prediction about what a price will do next. They come in seven kinds: trends continue, breakouts run, strength persists, dips snap back, volume leads price, patterns warn of a turn, and the calendar matters. Be The Puck runs all 100 plays on 377 stocks, funds and coins every night. Here is what the record says about each kind of bet, with a guide to every family and every play.
NewPick your plays and build your own signalEvery play ranked by how often its calls were right, weights for P/E, growth, debt, trend and analysts, and your own Buy and Sell lines on every page.
NewPlanning an account, not just picking stocksWhat 1 to 30 stocks, an index core with a slice of picks, and a cap on any one name did since 2006, from thousands of portfolios. Then check your own mix on the watchlist.
NewWays to invest, by countryCanada, the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: who can advise you, what each must promise by law, what it costs, and how professional funds did against their index.
NewNews that moves stocksEarnings beats and misses, upgrades, downgrades, filings and headlines: which kinds of news moved stocks the way you'd expect, how often, and how much.
Five things 37,458 backtests say
Each play against simply holding the same stock over the same dates since 2005, after costs, as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
- Protection is common; beating the market isn't. Across 37,458 play-and-stock tests, 85% cut the worst fall, 18% beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and only 16% made more money than holding.
- Candles & chart patterns cut the worst fall most often (93% of tests); Momentum beat holding on risk-adjusted return most often (23%), and Candles & chart patterns least often (12%).
- Being right often isn't the same as making money. Mean reversion plays were right on 53% of calls, the highest hit rate of any family, yet beat holding on risk-adjusted return on 16% of tests.
- Trading more didn't help. Plays that switch more often tended to beat holding less often.
- The market decides which bet pays. Calendar plays did best in the 2008 crash; Candles & chart patterns plays lagged most in the long 2009–19 recovery. No family won every kind of market.
The seven bets
Open a family for what it predicts, the research behind it, when it works and when it fails.
30 playsTrend followingPrices that have been rising tend to keep rising for a while, and falls tend to keep falling. A trend play doesn't try to call tops or bottoms: it holds while price stays on the right side of an average or trend line and steps aside when it breaks.Cut the worst fall 84%Beat holding, risk-adjusted 20%Calls right 30%15 playsBreakouts & channelsWhen price escapes the range it has held for weeks, the move that follows tends to run. A breakout play buys new highs (or a close above a band) and sells on a break the other way or a trailing stop.Cut the worst fall 88%Beat holding, risk-adjusted 15%Calls right 32%17 playsMomentumWhat has risen most over the past months tends to keep outperforming for a while. Momentum plays measure the rate of change, or strength against the market, and hold only while it is positive.Cut the worst fall 83%Beat holding, risk-adjusted 23%Calls right 32%15 playsMean reversionShort, sharp moves tend to snap back. Mean-reversion plays buy a stock after a quick drop or an oversold reading and sell into the bounce, often only when the longer trend is still up.Cut the worst fall 85%Beat holding, risk-adjusted 16%Calls right 53%9 playsVolume & money flowVolume shows conviction. Money-flow plays read whether shares change hands more on up days or down days, betting that heavy buying shows up in volume before it shows up in price.Cut the worst fall 77%Beat holding, risk-adjusted 14%Calls right 32%3 playsCandles & chart patternsA short pattern of bars can show a move running out of steam. Pattern plays look for a turn in the last day or few days, like a candle that swallows the one before it or a breakout that fails and snaps back, and trade the reversal.Cut the worst fall 93%Beat holding, risk-adjusted 12%Calls right 44%11 playsCalendarSome parts of the year and month have been reliably stronger than others. Calendar plays hold only through those windows and sit in cash the rest of the time.Cut the worst fall 91%Beat holding, risk-adjusted 20%Calls right 49%
The scorecard
Share of play-and-stock tests where the family's plays did better than holding. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Family | Plays | Cut the worst fall | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Beat holding on return | Calls right | Switches / yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | 30 | 84% | 20% | 17% | 30% | 7.4 |
| Breakouts & channels | 15 | 88% | 15% | 14% | 32% | 6.5 |
| Momentum | 17 | 83% | 23% | 19% | 32% | 5.5 |
| Mean reversion | 15 | 85% | 16% | 13% | 53% | 8.5 |
| Volume & money flow | 9 | 77% | 14% | 14% | 32% | 16.7 |
| Candles & chart patterns | 3 | 93% | 12% | 12% | 44% | 4.4 |
| Calendar | 11 | 91% | 20% | 16% | 49% | 2.0 |
Market by market
Median gap in return between each family's plays and holding the same stock through each stretch (crypto excluded): per year over stretches longer than 18 months, for the whole stretch otherwise. Positive means the play did better.
| Family | 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | +23% | −10% | +19% | −27% | +8% | −10% |
| Breakouts & channels | +27% | −12% | +23% | −34% | +11% | −12% |
| Momentum | +24% | −9% | +16% | −25% | +7% | −9% |
| Mean reversion | +20% | −10% | +9% | −27% | +9% | −8% |
| Volume & money flow | +12% | −10% | +14% | −26% | +6% | −10% |
| Candles & chart patterns | +26% | −12% | +21% | −34% | +11% | −10% |
| Calendar | +30% | −10% | +20% | −33% | +16% | −10% |
Most often beat holding, risk-adjusted
- Coppock Curve · Momentum42%
- 13612W Momentum · Momentum34%
- Halloween Indicator · Calendar33%
- 12-Month Momentum · Momentum33%
- 12-1 Momentum · Momentum33%
- 10-Month SMA · Trend following33%
- Granville 200-Day · Trend following29%
- Santa Claus Rally · Calendar29%
- Stage Analysis · Trend following28%
- Golden Cross · Trend following28%
Most often cut the worst fall
- Holy Grail · Trend following100%
- Bollinger Squeeze · Breakouts & channels100%
- ConnorsRSI Pullback · Mean reversion100%
- Turtle Soup Plus One · Candles & chart patterns100%
- Santa Claus Rally · Calendar100%
- Pre-Holiday · Calendar100%
- Pre-FOMC Drift · Calendar100%
- Presidential Sweet Spot · Calendar99%
- TTM Squeeze · Breakouts & channels99%
- RSI(2) Pullback · Mean reversion98%
Putting them together
No single kind of prediction wins in every market, which is why Be The Puck makes one call on each stock, your signal: the share of the plays you count that hold it, weighted with whatever else you think matters. You can get an email when it flips on your stocks. Every play also has a guide: browse all 100.
Further reading
- Brock, Lakonishok & LeBaron (1992), Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. Journal of Finance.
- Sullivan, Timmermann & White (1999), Data-snooping, technical trading rule performance, and the bootstrap. Journal of Finance.
- Jegadeesh & Titman (1993), Returns to buying winners and selling losers. Journal of Finance.
- Moskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen (2012), Time series momentum. Journal of Financial Economics.
- Faber (2007), A quantitative approach to tactical asset allocation. Journal of Wealth Management.
- Bouman & Jacobsen (2002), The Halloween indicator, 'Sell in May and go away': another puzzle. American Economic Review.
- McLean & Pontiff (2016), Does academic research destroy stock return predictability?. Journal of Finance.
- Lo, Mamaysky & Wang (2000), Foundations of technical analysis. Journal of Finance.
- Marshall, Young & Rose (2006), Candlestick technical trading strategies: can they create value for investors?. Journal of Banking & Finance.
- Lucca & Moench (2015), The pre-FOMC announcement drift. Journal of Finance.
Backtests flatter: they use stocks still listed today, can't feel fear, and with 100 plays some will look good by luck. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.