Guide · Momentum
Does Coppock Curve work?
Across 367 stocks, Coppock Curve cut the worst fall on 80%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 42% and on raw return on 37%. A fair trade: smaller falls on most stocks, with risk-adjusted results close to holding.
What it predicts
A monthly momentum line built to spot the end of bear markets. The buy signal is the curve turning up from below zero.
- In at month-end when the curve, below zero, turns up.
- Out when it is below zero and falling.
Momentum plays bet that what has risen most over the past months tends to keep outperforming for a while. The family guide
How to use it
- It trades rarely (about 0.7 switches a year), so it suits someone who checks in occasionally, and a single bad call can last months.
- Expect to be wrong more often than right: only 37% of its calls worked. Its results come from the size of the winners, so following it means sitting through strings of small losses.
- It worked best on Sectors (83% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Healthcare (22%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
Coppock Curve did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+34% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−7%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coppock Curve | +34% | −3% | 0% | −7% | 0% | −4% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Sectors | 83% | +0.07 |
| Software & devices | 61% | +0.04 |
| Media & telecom | 60% | +0.04 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 57% | +0.06 |
| Financials | 54% | +0.00 |
| Semiconductors | 52% | +0.00 |
| Big tech | 50% | -0.01 |
| Energy & power | 47% | -0.03 |
| Industrials & rentals | 44% | -0.06 |
| Real estate | 42% | -0.03 |
| Industrials & materials | 37% | -0.02 |
| Consumer & retail | 29% | -0.04 |
| Metals & mining | 24% | -0.07 |
| Healthcare | 22% | -0.05 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
Coppock Curve holds 297 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
No changes of call in the last two weeks.
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.