Oct 13 close Sign in

Metals & mining

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM)

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Sell29 / 100

Sell: 29 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Trend (−4% vs 200-day) scores 32 and lifts it; Off the high (−22% from its 1-year high) scores 27 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightTFPMPointsWeightAdds
Plays in29%294011.6
Off the high−22% from its 1-year high27308.1
Trend−4% vs 200-day32309.6
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for TFPM
FactorTFPMPointsWhat it is
Plays in29%29The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+37% · 8 analysts · capped: below 200-day50How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating1.8 · buy59The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E15.9×79Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E20.3×32Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG––P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales12.9×13Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book2.8×55Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield0.8%23Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth+172%90Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth+37%79Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin84%99Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity20%69Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity0.10×82Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high−22% from its 1-year high27How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend−4% vs 200-day32How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+5%38The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure2/10 · low80The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on TFPM

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in29 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.96×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−4%). Higher than on 18% of days since 2022. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TFPM now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

TFPM, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved TFPM lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 28−3.1% against the S&P/TSX1.4× a normal day

TFPM −4.0%, the S&P/TSX −0.9% that session; −3.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TFPM was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TFPM starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.9%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −4.2% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Mon Sep 14−3.4% against the S&P/TSX1.5× a normal day

TFPM −3.4%, the S&P/TSX +0.0% that session; −1.6% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TFPM was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TFPM starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.0%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −3.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Wed Sep 2+3.4% against the S&P/TSX1.4× a normal day

TFPM +4.1%, the S&P/TSX +0.7% that session; +3.2% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TFPM was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TFPM starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.7%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved +3.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on TFPM

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on TFPM went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2021. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −4.4%Enter above C$44.45 (+1.5%)27% 42/156+7.4% / +25.8%−30.5% / −35.4%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 −3.4%Exit below C$43.38 (−0.9%)32% 7/22+8.3% / +24.7%−36.0% / −35.4%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Enter above C$44.62 (+1.9%)23% 20/88+11.7% / +34.1%−37.1% / −35.4%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTMay 14, 2026 −6.4%Not on one close26% 13/50+12.0% / +28.1%−22.6% / −33.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTApr 24, 2026 −4.7%Enter above C$65.95 (+50.6%)46% 6/13+18.4% / +27.1%−40.4% / −35.4%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTApr 24, 2026 −4.7%Enter above C$49.76 (+13.6%)20% 5/25+8.4% / +28.1%−29.6% / −33.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$45.60 (+4.1%)20% 3/15+13.6% / +26.5%−35.4% / −35.4%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −4.4%Enter above C$45.75 (+4.5%)8% 4/53+10.8% / +23.9%−37.2% / −35.4%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyOUTJun 11, 2026 +12.3%Enter above C$74.81 (+70.8%)20% 1/5+10.5% / +23.9%−38.6% / −35.4%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −4.4%Enter above C$79.33 (+81.2%)4% 2/47+5.1% / +22.9%−43.1% / −35.4%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 +0.4%Enter above C$50.05 (+14.3%)24% 9/38−2.4% / +33.3%−49.7% / −35.4%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 −3.3%Enter above C$44.46 (+1.5%)24% 48/202+3.0% / +25.3%−57.7% / −35.4%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 −4.0%Enter above C$55.24 (+26.2%)34% 21/62+4.4% / +28.7%−51.0% / −35.4%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +4.4%Not on one close13% 2/15+14.7% / +32.6%−37.5% / −33.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −0.6%Enter above C$50.35 (+15.0%)28% 9/32+10.2% / +29.5%−31.4% / −35.4%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 +1.2%Not on one close29% 8/28+16.6% / +29.5%−37.1% / −35.4%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Enter above C$46.59 (+6.4%)29% 13/45+1.7% / +21.9%−46.3% / −35.4%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −0.6%Not on one close32% 25/77−5.2% / +21.9%−39.7% / −35.4%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −4.4%Enter above C$48.11 (+9.9%)40% 52/130+13.3% / +22.7%−37.2% / −35.4%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 −3.3%Enter above C$47.96 (+9.5%)31% 18/59+0.6% / +23.0%−44.0% / −35.4%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Enter above C$45.01 (+2.8%)45% 54/119+19.7% / +22.8%−32.7% / −35.4%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Not on one close29% 10/34+4.8% / +22.4%−27.4% / −35.4%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −0.6%Enter above C$50.02 (+14.2%)23% 13/56+5.4% / +28.5%−36.4% / −35.4%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 +0.4%Enter above C$45.34 (+3.5%)38% 26/69+7.9% / +21.9%−28.2% / −35.4%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 −3.7%Enter above C$71.92 (+64.2%)29% 20/70−3.2% / +28.5%−47.1% / −35.4%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −2.0%Enter above C$47.87 (+9.3%)29% 17/58+6.5% / +28.7%−36.6% / −35.4%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −0.6%Enter above C$48.87 (+11.6%)26% 13/50+9.5% / +34.1%−37.2% / −35.4%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +1.9%Enter above C$46.28 (+5.7%)18% 4/22+9.3% / +34.1%−43.7% / −35.4%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 18, 2026 −5.4%Not on one close26% 14/54+2.0% / +26.8%−36.4% / −35.4%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTSep 29, 2025 +8.4%Not on one close30% 3/10+4.7% / +28.5%−7.0% / −35.4%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Enter above C$47.87 (+9.3%)27% 9/33+1.7% / +21.9%−38.7% / −35.4%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Enter above C$47.87 (+9.3%)18% 8/44−7.1% / +27.1%−34.5% / −35.4%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Enter above C$49.75 (+13.6%)19% 6/32−2.2% / +27.1%−31.3% / −35.4%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTMar 13, 2026 −10.8%Enter above C$49.30 (+12.6%)31% 8/26+6.5% / +34.1%−22.6% / −35.4%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −2.0%Enter above C$47.87 (+9.3%)36% 8/22+11.3% / +21.9%−25.1% / −35.4%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −3.4%Enter above C$47.81 (+9.2%)34% 15/44+6.0% / +25.3%−29.0% / −35.4%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −3.4%Enter above C$47.47 (+8.4%)37% 20/54+9.2% / +22.2%−23.6% / −35.4%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −2.0%Enter above C$47.54 (+8.6%)31% 18/58+0.3% / +22.6%−40.1% / −35.4%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −2.0%Enter above C$46.65 (+6.5%)36% 17/47+7.3% / +21.9%−41.7% / −35.4%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Enter above C$48.49 (+10.7%)30% 9/30+8.6% / +25.3%−38.2% / −35.4%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 −3.3%Enter above C$45.48 (+3.9%)30% 27/89+8.6% / +24.7%−42.1% / −35.4%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −7.1%Not on one close25% 13/52+1.5% / +21.9%−19.8% / −35.4%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTJan 28, 2026 −17.9%Not on one close46% 13/28+10.0% / +25.3%−12.5% / −35.4%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −1.5%Exit below C$43.22 (−1.3%)29% 52/179+4.2% / +22.5%−32.1% / −35.4%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −3.4%Not on one close30% 3/10+3.5% / +30.7%−8.1% / −35.4%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINMay 31, 2024 +98.7%Exit below C$40.12 (−8.4%)75% 3/4+20.9% / +27.1%−33.3% / −33.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINMay 31, 2024 +98.7%Not on one close75% 3/4+22.9% / +27.1%−33.3% / −33.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$44.61 (+1.9%)71% 5/7+23.1% / +27.1%−33.3% / −33.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.6%Exit below C$43.18 (−1.4%)15% 5/33+16.5% / +33.8%−29.9% / −35.4%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTApr 30, 2026 +1.4%Enter above C$53.32 (+21.8%)12% 1/8+7.6% / +23.5%−25.5% / −33.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyOUTSep 25, 2026 −3.7%Enter above C$45.53 (+4.0%)25% 8/32+7.5% / +27.5%−37.9% / −35.4%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −3.4%Enter above C$44.79 (+2.3%)43% 38/88+19.5% / +28.5%−28.4% / −35.4%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −1.5%Exit below C$43.27 (−1.2%)33% 57/173+11.5% / +28.5%−38.1% / −35.4%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −6.6%Enter above C$53.11 (+21.3%)36% 28/78+2.6% / +26.2%−40.9% / −35.4%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endOUTMay 31, 2023 +135.3%Not on one close–+4.5% / +29.3%0.0% / −33.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −7.1%Enter above C$47.55 (+8.6%)30% 41/137+9.1% / +21.9%−21.9% / −35.4%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −6.6%Enter above C$65.90 (+50.5%)31% 22/72+3.4% / +34.1%−42.3% / −35.4%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −0.6%Enter above C$50.31 (+14.9%)21% 12/56+6.4% / +34.1%−38.0% / −35.4%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$42.63 (−2.6%)31% 5/16+17.2% / +27.1%−25.5% / −33.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINMay 31, 2024 +98.7%Not on one close–+34.1% / +34.1%−33.3% / −33.3%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINMay 31, 2024 +98.7%Not on one close0% 0/3+16.7% / +27.1%−33.3% / −33.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −6.6%Enter above C$48.64 (+11.1%)30% 22/74+8.6% / +28.7%−38.9% / −35.4%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTAug 26, 2026 −9.8%Not on one close62% 5/8+9.4% / +22.7%−24.8% / −35.4%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTMay 6, 2026 −1.2%Not on one close58% 44/76+8.4% / +23.9%−19.5% / −35.4%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTMay 6, 2026 −1.2%Not on one close60% 49/82+10.6% / +23.9%−23.6% / −35.4%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyINSep 28, 2026 +0.3%Sell above C$44.59 (+1.8%)69% 31/45+15.2% / +22.2%−31.7% / −35.4%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyINSep 17, 2026 −4.8%Not on one close80% 36/45+39.5% / +23.0%−25.7% / −35.4%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyINSep 11, 2026 −6.7%Not on one close68% 48/71+25.6% / +22.7%−32.8% / −35.4%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyINMay 1, 2026 +2.7%Not on one close71% 15/21+17.4% / +22.3%−23.0% / −35.4%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINMar 8, 2022 +171.1%Sell above C$110.59 (+152.5%)–+23.9% / +23.9%−35.4% / −35.4%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTJun 18, 2024 +112.2%Not on one close17% 1/6+2.3% / +28.7%−9.6% / −35.4%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINSep 11, 2026 −6.7%Not on one close55% 38/69+24.3% / +25.3%−23.6% / −35.4%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINSep 25, 2026 −3.7%Not on one close52% 51/99+12.4% / +25.3%−32.1% / −35.4%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Sell above C$43.79 (0.0%)60% 291/484+21.0% / +22.8%−23.9% / −35.4%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTJul 2, 2026 −1.5%Not on one close54% 13/24+17.9% / +23.9%−24.8% / −35.4%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.6%Not on one close33% 83/249+14.4% / +28.5%−41.0% / −35.4%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINSep 30, 2026 0.0%Sell above C$44.67 (+2.0%)59% 20/34+21.6% / +24.7%−31.0% / −35.4%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −3.4%Not on one close25% 48/194−0.2% / +22.2%−50.7% / −35.4%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.6%Not on one close33% 18/55+1.4% / +21.9%−40.1% / −35.4%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyINApr 29, 2026 +2.0%Not on one close65% 11/17+13.9% / +22.7%−23.8% / −35.4%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINMay 26, 2025 +47.1%Exit below C$38.02 (−13.2%)24% 7/29+17.2% / +27.0%−33.3% / −33.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −4.4%Enter above C$44.73 (+2.1%)26% 49/186−4.0% / +23.4%−34.9% / −35.4%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −3.4%Enter above C$49.65 (+13.4%)39% 35/89+8.5% / +22.2%−37.4% / −35.4%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$43.79 (+0.0%)35% 53/152−4.5% / +21.9%−46.6% / −35.4%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −3.4%Not on one close47% 7/15+22.4% / +27.0%−36.8% / −33.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyINSep 30, 2026 0.0%Sell C$40.23–C$44.24 (+1.0%)41% 77/186+23.9% / +34.1%−29.7% / −35.4%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.6%Not on one close52% 17/33+15.5% / +22.5%−32.8% / −35.4%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTJun 5, 2026 +11.3%Not on one close22% 8/36−4.2% / +23.2%−47.9% / −35.4%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +1.9%Not on one close50% 11/22+0.6% / +22.4%−14.4% / −35.4%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +1.4%Buys Oct 3080% 8/10+33.0% / +22.8%−25.5% / −35.4%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −1.5%Window opens Apr 182% 9/11+33.2% / +28.5%−25.5% / −35.4%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTApr 22, 2026 −6.6%Window opens Oct 1680% 8/10+33.4% / +28.5%−25.5% / −35.4%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 −4.1%Buys Dec 2340% 4/10+5.3% / +22.8%−6.1% / −35.4%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 +0.8%Buys Oct 2954% 70/130+15.1% / +22.8%−14.0% / −35.4%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 0.0%Sells Jun 3033% 1/3+3.9% / +22.8%−24.4% / −35.4%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −6.8%Buys Nov 2451% 51/100+6.4% / +22.8%−9.7% / −35.4%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +144.0%Not on one close0% 0/2+20.4% / +25.9%−33.3% / −35.4%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Sells Oct 1652% 290/563+17.2% / +22.8%−38.7% / −35.4%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −2.0%Buys Oct 2744% 38/86+1.3% / +22.8%−9.3% / −35.4%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +0.4%Sells Oct 1647% 62/133+6.6% / +22.8%−29.0% / −35.4%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINMay 20, 2021Always in–+22.7%−35.4%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureLow2 of 10 points
  • Market swings2/3
  • Past crashes0/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up0/2
  • It moves about 1.6× its index.

Past crashes, peak to low

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · back to its old high Aug 2022

TFPM−12%
TSX−14%
  • Beta1.61Moves about 1.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
  • Downside capture−16%In months the TSX fell, this fell -16% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
  • Two-year change+97%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
  • From 52-week high−22%
  • Debt to equity0.12×
  • Net debt / EBITDA0.5×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
  • Interest cover64.9×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Other Precious Metals & Mining · Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Size and valuation
Market capC$9.0BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$489MTotal sales.
P/E ratio15.9×Buyers pay C$16 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E20.3×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book2.8×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin84.3%Keeps 84¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+37.3%Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth+172.2%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity20.1%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow−$395MBurning cash: needs savings or new money to keep going.
Balance sheet
Total equity$2.0BWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt$236MLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$35.1MCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.12×Comfortable.
Interest cover64.9×Interest is easily paid from profit.
Wall Street
Average analyst targetC$59.8437% above the close, from 8 analysts (range C$50.41 to C$74.22).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield0.75%Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Read more

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

Email meTest a theory

Free account

Know the moment the light flips on your stocks.

Follow your stocks and get an email with the analysis the evening a light flips. Member tools are free until January 1, 2027.