Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Triple Flag Precious Metals
TFPM with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TFPM over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +13.9% | +22.7% | +15.9% | +33.7% |
| Total return | +99% | +196% | +109% | +325% |
| Worst drawdown | −23.8% | −35.4% | −23.8% | −35.4% |
| Volatility | 21.3% | 37.0% | 21.8% | 36.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.87 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 11 of 17 closed calls (65%). In calls averaged +7.4%; out calls saw TFPM move +9.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TFPM moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | IN | C$42.92 | now | +2.0% | open |
| Jan 29, 2025 | OUT | C$22.24 | Apr 29, 2026 | +93.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 14, 2024 | IN | C$22.66 | Jan 29, 2025 | −1.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 28, 2024 | OUT | C$21.04 | Nov 14, 2024 | +7.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 17, 2024 | IN | C$20.26 | Aug 28, 2024 | +3.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 12, 2024 | OUT | C$17.64 | Jun 17, 2024 | +14.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 18, 2024 | IN | C$16.33 | Mar 12, 2024 | +8.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 21, 2023 | OUT | C$17.77 | Jan 18, 2024 | −8.1% | ✓ right |
| Jun 1, 2023 | IN | C$18.50 | Jul 21, 2023 | −4.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 6, 2022 | OUT | C$15.37 | Jun 1, 2023 | +20.4% | ✕ wrong |
| May 27, 2022 | IN | C$15.24 | Sep 6, 2022 | +0.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 30, 2022 | OUT | C$17.01 | May 27, 2022 | −10.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 18 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.