Guide · Breakouts & channels
Does TTM Squeeze work?
Across 375 stocks, TTM Squeeze cut the worst fall on 99%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 10% and on raw return on 12%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
When the Bollinger Bands shrink inside the Keltner Channel, the market is coiled. Buy when that squeeze releases with momentum positive and rising; sell when momentum fades for two days.
- The squeeze is on while the Bollinger Bands (20 days, 2 standard deviations) sit inside the Keltner Channel (20 days, 1.5 × average true range). It fires on the first day it turns off.
- In on the firing day if the momentum histogram is above zero and rising.
- Out after two days in a row of falling momentum, or when momentum drops below zero.
Breakouts & channels plays bet that when price escapes the range it has held for weeks, the move that follows tends to run. The family guide
How to use it
- Expect to be wrong more often than right: only 36% of its calls worked. Its results come from the size of the winners, so following it means sitting through strings of small losses.
- It sits in cash much of the time (holding on about 10% of days), so judge it on risk-adjusted return rather than on matching a rising market.
- It worked best on Industrials & rentals (22% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Big tech (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
TTM Squeeze did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+38% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−42%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM Squeeze | +38% | −16% | +26% | −42% | +18% | −13% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Industrials & rentals | 22% | -0.27 |
| Media & telecom | 20% | -0.28 |
| Micro caps | 17% | -0.32 |
| Energy & power | 15% | -0.37 |
| Software & devices | 12% | -0.56 |
| Metals & mining | 12% | -0.33 |
| Financials | 12% | -0.42 |
| Healthcare | 11% | -0.35 |
| Consumer & retail | 9% | -0.42 |
| Real estate | 5% | -0.25 |
| Semiconductors | 4% | -0.47 |
| Industrials & materials | 4% | -0.45 |
| Sectors | 0% | -0.56 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 0% | -0.41 |
| Big tech | 0% | -0.64 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
TTM Squeeze holds 43 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.