Industrials & rentals

Hertz (HTZ)

$1.92 +3.8% on the day·−65.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Your signal

Sell14 / 100

Sell: 14 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (34%) scores 34 and lifts it; Off the high (−75% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	HTZ	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	34%	34	40	13.6
Off the high	−75% from its 1-year high	0	30	0.0
Trend	−52% vs 200-day	1	30	0.3

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for HTZ

Factor	HTZ	Points	What it is
Plays in	34%	34	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+15% · 6 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	3.4 · hold	0	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	loss	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Forward P/E	loss expected	0	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	–	–	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales	0.1×	100	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Price to book	negative book	0	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	–	–	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth	−1%	9	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Profit margin	−7%	9	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Return on equity	–	–	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equity	negative equity	0	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Off the high	−75% from its 1-year high	0	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−52% vs 200-day	1	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−65%	2	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	6/10 · high	40	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on HTZ

34 of the 100 plays hold HTZ right now.
The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say out.
It closed 52% below its 200-day average and 75% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 1.2× its index and fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $2.22, 15% above the close (6 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in34 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh6 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.48×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−52%). Higher than on 9% of days since 2022. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about HTZ now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn HTZ: right 2 of 8 · Out since May 18, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn HTZ: right 28 of 87 · In since Oct 6, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn HTZ: right 3 of 6 · Out since Apr 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn HTZ: right 30 of 46 · Out since Oct 6, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn HTZ: right 6 of 9 · In since Jul 20, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn HTZ: right 23 of 35 · In since Oct 1, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn HTZ: right 6 of 10 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

HTZ, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved HTZ lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Oct 6+14.5% against the S&P 5002.1× a normal day

HTZ +15.1%, the S&P 500 +0.6% that session; +2.9% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

HeadlineAOL.com · Oct 6, 2:04 pm ET
Hertz Rebounds 16% From a Record Low; Avis Climbs 5%, Ryder Ticks Up
HeadlineYahoo Finance · Oct 6, 1:52 pm ET
Ground Transportation Stocks Q2 Results: Benchmarking Hertz (NASDAQ:HTZ)
HeadlineStocksToTrade · Oct 6, 12:33 pm ET
HTZ Stock Firms Up As Q3 2026 Earnings Date Nears
Lawsuit or investigationLaw360 · Oct 6, 6:01 pm ETafter that close
Hertz Brass Sued Over EV Write-Downs, Stock Buybacks
After lawsuit and probe headlines, stocks did worse than their index at the first close after the news 58% of the time (14 of 24 on 17 stocks; median move −0.7%). Low predictability Early read

Next earnings report

Thu Nov 5, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.25.

Over its last 12 reports, HTZ's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±9.2% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
HTZ after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 8 of 9 times (median +6.2%).
HTZ after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 6 of 9 times (median −6.2%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on HTZ

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following8 of 30 in Breakouts & channels3 of 15 in Momentum4 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow6 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns2 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on HTZ went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2021. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $1.89 (−1.8%)	26% 42/162	−30.5% / −34.6%	−91.3% / −95.7%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 −62.3%	Enter above $2.72 (+41.8%)	15% 4/27	−27.3% / −43.1%	−77.1% / −93.6%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	May 15, 2026 −65.3%	Enter above $2.10 (+9.2%)	20% 20/98	−31.9% / −39.4%	−87.7% / −94.3%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2025 −65.7%	Not on one close	33% 2/6	−1.3% / −39.7%	−47.2% / −93.1%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 −62.3%	Not on one close	18% 4/22	−9.2% / −40.1%	−53.5% / −93.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 −66.4%	Enter above $4.75 (+147.3%)	19% 3/16	−3.1% / −41.0%	−56.4% / −93.1%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −15.2%	Enter above $3.73 (+94.4%)	30% 3/10	−23.6% / −41.4%	−78.5% / −93.1%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 −64.4%	Enter above $3.99 (+107.7%)	8% 3/39	−27.8% / −42.2%	−78.6% / −93.7%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −15.2%	Not on one close	50% 5/10	−19.6% / −42.2%	−71.7% / −93.7%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Nov 14, 2025 −66.0%	Not on one close	17% 2/12	−9.1% / −40.5%	−51.9% / −93.1%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +9.1%	Enter above $2.16 (+12.7%)	17% 6/35	−39.0% / −40.8%	−91.4% / −94.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +11.0%	Exit below $1.84 (−4.0%)	23% 50/220	−38.0% / −34.7%	−96.3% / −95.7%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below $1.18 (−38.7%)	36% 17/47	−16.5% / −39.3%	−72.6% / −93.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Jun 1, 2026 −62.9%	Not on one close	25% 2/8	−21.7% / −43.8%	−66.8% / −92.4%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 −63.1%	Enter above $5.29 (+175.3%)	17% 4/24	−23.0% / −40.5%	−74.1% / −94.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 −63.1%	Enter above $2.21 (+15.0%)	15% 4/27	−20.4% / −40.7%	−76.8% / −95.7%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Exit below $1.66 (−13.7%)	39% 14/36	−17.3% / −35.2%	−81.4% / −95.7%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −0.5%	Not on one close	45% 33/74	−23.5% / −35.2%	−86.3% / −95.7%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $1.58 (−17.7%)	34% 40/117	−18.2% / −34.1%	−77.8% / −95.7%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −2.5%	Enter above $1.63 (−15.1%)	39% 21/54	−14.3% / −34.3%	−86.9% / −95.7%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $2.23 (+16.2%)	37% 44/120	−17.1% / −34.8%	−85.8% / −95.7%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −5.9%	Enter above $5.21 (+171.4%)	40% 16/40	−23.6% / −34.3%	−87.6% / −95.7%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −7.2%	Enter above $2.22 (+15.6%)	24% 12/49	−23.7% / −36.8%	−85.9% / −95.7%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $1.84 (−4.0%)	30% 27/90	−17.8% / −35.2%	−85.8% / −95.7%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −2.5%	Enter above $3.15 (+64.1%)	38% 21/55	−21.8% / −36.8%	−84.1% / −95.7%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Not on one close	35% 13/37	−22.4% / −39.3%	−71.5% / −93.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 −63.1%	Enter above $2.27 (+18.0%)	24% 11/46	−28.2% / −39.4%	−80.6% / −94.3%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	May 27, 2026 −63.5%	Enter above $5.38 (+180.3%)	10% 2/21	−20.2% / −39.4%	−74.8% / −94.3%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $1.81 (−5.7%)	33% 16/49	−21.4% / −39.1%	−76.5% / −93.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 −63.1%	Not on one close	25% 2/8	−7.9% / −36.8%	−36.7% / −95.7%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −2.5%	Enter above $2.24 (+16.7%)	33% 10/30	−23.0% / −35.2%	−86.3% / −95.7%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 −67.5%	Enter above $2.94 (+53.4%)	38% 9/24	−2.2% / −34.7%	−52.4% / −95.7%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 −66.4%	Enter above $2.94 (+53.4%)	25% 4/16	−9.1% / −34.7%	−65.1% / −95.7%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 −67.5%	Not on one close	30% 3/10	−9.7% / −39.4%	−53.4% / −94.3%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 −63.1%	Not on one close	32% 9/28	−17.1% / −35.2%	−72.5% / −95.7%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 18, 2026 −7.7%	Enter above $2.26 (+17.5%)	57% 17/30	−7.6% / −34.7%	−53.4% / −95.7%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −5.9%	Enter above $2.09 (+9.0%)	50% 20/40	−3.2% / −35.6%	−53.3% / −95.7%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −8.1%	Enter above $2.07 (+7.8%)	55% 23/42	+8.4% / −34.1%	−54.0% / −95.7%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Exit below $1.62 (−15.5%)	36% 16/45	−20.9% / −35.2%	−86.8% / −95.7%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Exit below $1.61 (−16.2%)	32% 28/87	−26.8% / −36.6%	−86.4% / −95.7%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.0%	Enter above $2.02 (+5.3%)	36% 26/72	−9.2% / −34.1%	−67.2% / −95.7%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 −73.2%	Not on one close	37% 11/30	+5.7% / −35.2%	−23.4% / −95.7%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Apr 22, 2026 −70.9%	Not on one close	77% 20/26	+37.6% / −34.7%	−27.2% / −95.7%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below $1.68 (−12.5%)	31% 58/185	−24.8% / −35.5%	−91.2% / −95.7%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Dec 31, 2025 −62.6%	Not on one close	60% 6/10	+0.8% / −38.1%	−19.8% / −93.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −69.8%	Enter above $5.32 (+177.1%)	20% 1/5	−6.9% / −43.9%	−56.5% / −93.1%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −69.8%	Not on one close	50% 3/6	−8.9% / −43.9%	−62.5% / −93.1%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Feb 27, 2026 −57.7%	Enter above $5.91 (+208.1%)	40% 2/5	−11.7% / −43.9%	−44.6% / −93.1%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jun 10, 2026 −61.4%	Not on one close	14% 3/22	−16.1% / −39.7%	−59.3% / −94.3%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2022 −87.9%	Enter above $7.42 (+286.4%)	–	+4.4% / −39.7%	0.0% / −93.1%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	May 15, 2026 −65.3%	Enter above $3.57 (+86.1%)	21% 4/19	−8.5% / −41.6%	−56.0% / −93.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +7.3%	Exit below $1.49 (−22.4%)	35% 33/94	−21.2% / −36.8%	−85.6% / −95.7%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +3.8%	Enter above $1.95 (+1.6%)	26% 50/191	−43.1% / −36.8%	−96.1% / −95.7%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $0.678 (−64.7%)	53% 33/62	−5.1% / −34.4%	−73.1% / −95.7%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +21.1%	Enter above $4.53 (+136.1%)	33% 1/3	−34.8% / −49.1%	−81.7% / −91.5%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.0%	Enter above $2.00 (+4.2%)	36% 37/102	+5.1% / −35.2%	−47.1% / −95.7%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −2.0%	Not on one close	53% 30/57	−13.0% / −39.4%	−63.1% / −94.3%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −7.2%	Enter above $2.24 (+16.7%)	23% 11/48	−26.0% / −39.4%	−78.4% / −94.3%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +15.0%	Enter above $1.86 (−3.2%)	22% 5/23	−38.7% / −43.9%	−87.4% / −93.1%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −69.8%	Not on one close	0% 0/2	+1.0% / −26.6%	−51.2% / −82.5%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −63.4%	Not on one close	75% 3/4	+3.2% / −43.9%	−27.9% / −93.1%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Exit below $1.46 (−24.2%)	39% 27/69	−9.6% / −39.3%	−59.5% / −93.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jul 27, 2026 −4.0%	Not on one close	56% 5/9	−17.5% / −32.7%	−88.3% / −95.7%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −69.8%	Not on one close	62% 15/24	+3.9% / −42.2%	−22.2% / −93.7%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	May 28, 2026 −65.0%	Not on one close	62% 26/42	+3.5% / −42.2%	−49.0% / −93.7%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Buy below $1.56 (−18.7%)	65% 30/46	−12.7% / −35.6%	−72.7% / −95.7%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Apr 30, 2026 −69.8%	Not on one close	74% 29/39	−10.7% / −34.9%	−78.9% / −95.7%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −7.2%	Not on one close	64% 42/66	−13.8% / −34.1%	−83.4% / −95.7%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Jul 7, 2026 −8.6%	Not on one close	62% 8/13	−16.1% / −36.9%	−82.6% / −95.7%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Apr 14, 2022 −91.4%	Not on one close	–	−42.2% / −42.2%	−93.7% / −93.7%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jul 9, 2026 −11.5%	Not on one close	68% 15/22	+1.3% / −39.3%	−21.9% / −93.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +7.3%	Exit below $1.88 (−2.3%)	38% 29/77	−32.7% / −34.7%	−94.8% / −95.7%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.0%	Not on one close	58% 59/102	−4.7% / −34.7%	−66.2% / −95.7%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +15.0%	Buy below $1.92 (0.0%)	60% 323/534	+4.6% / −38.1%	−75.5% / −95.7%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Nov 4, 2025 −71.5%	Not on one close	75% 3/4	+6.3% / −42.2%	−20.3% / −93.7%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +3.8%	Enter above $1.96 (+2.3%)	37% 96/257	−29.7% / −36.8%	−92.9% / −95.7%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +15.0%	Sell above $1.70 (−11.3%)	74% 25/34	−10.2% / −34.6%	−80.3% / −95.7%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Not on one close	29% 49/171	−20.2% / −35.6%	−85.6% / −95.7%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	May 6, 2026 −70.4%	Not on one close	38% 16/42	−2.8% / −35.2%	−76.4% / −95.7%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Jul 20, 2026 +9.1%	Not on one close	67% 6/9	−12.5% / −32.7%	−85.4% / −95.7%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Apr 15, 2025 −47.4%	Not on one close	33% 6/18	−7.8% / −40.2%	−41.5% / −93.1%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below $1.70 (−11.7%)	29% 46/159	−22.3% / −34.4%	−86.3% / −95.7%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Exit below $1.72 (−10.6%)	35% 31/89	−20.3% / −35.6%	−83.0% / −95.7%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −6.8%	Exit below $1.92 (0.0%)	40% 52/131	−5.7% / −35.2%	−72.8% / −95.7%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Jun 25, 2026 −28.4%	Not on one close	31% 8/26	−25.4% / −40.1%	−76.7% / −93.1%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +9.1%	Sell $1.77–$1.89 (−1.6%)	33% 72/216	−21.1% / −42.0%	−73.4% / −94.2%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +11.0%	Not on one close	66% 23/35	−14.1% / −36.2%	−77.0% / −95.7%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Aug 6, 2026 −5.0%	Exit below $1.45 (−24.5%)	52% 14/27	−8.6% / −35.5%	−68.3% / −95.7%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 30, 2024 −36.8%	Not on one close	44% 7/16	−2.5% / −34.8%	−23.2% / −95.7%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −69.8%	Buys Oct 30	60% 6/10	+1.1% / −38.1%	−71.8% / −95.7%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +9.1%	Window opens Apr 1	55% 6/11	−8.3% / −36.8%	−69.9% / −95.7%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 −67.5%	Window opens Oct 16	40% 4/10	−3.3% / −36.8%	−69.2% / −95.7%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −63.4%	Buys Dec 23	70% 7/10	+4.6% / −38.1%	−9.5% / −95.7%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +7.3%	Buys Oct 29	48% 61/126	−8.0% / −38.1%	−71.0% / −95.7%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +15.0%	Sells Jun 30	100% 3/3	+8.2% / −38.1%	−24.4% / −95.7%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −16.5%	Buys Nov 24	50% 50/101	+10.1% / −38.1%	−22.8% / −95.7%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 −87.5%	Not on one close	50% 1/2	−38.5% / −41.6%	−92.4% / −93.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +3.8%	Sells Oct 16	50% 277/551	−32.6% / −38.1%	−93.6% / −95.7%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.1%	Buys Oct 27	57% 48/84	+4.1% / −38.1%	−14.1% / −95.7%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +9.1%	Sells Oct 16	47% 61/130	−21.4% / −38.1%	−82.5% / −95.7%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jul 1, 2021	Always in	–	−39.5%	−95.7%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh6 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.2× its index.
It fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes.
It owes more than it owns (negative equity).
It operating profit covers interest only 0.2×.

Past crashes, peak to low

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · never got back

HTZ−36%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.20Moves about 1.2× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture589%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 589% as much on average.
Two-year change−37%
From 52-week high−75%
EquityNegativeOwes more than it owns.
Net debt / EBITDA55.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover0.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Rental & Leasing Services · Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a vehicle rental company. It operates through two segments: Americas RAC and International RAC. The company offers vehicle rental services under the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands from company-operated, licensee, and franchisee locations in the United States, Africa, Asia, Australia, Canada, the Caribbean, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and New Zealand. It also sells vehicles and value-added services.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$684M	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$8.9B	Total sales. The market values it at 0.1× sales.
P/E ratio	n/a	Lost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	−7.3%	Spends more than it brings in.
Revenue growth	−1.0%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Free cash flow	$1.5B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	−$459M	Negative: it owes more than it owns.
Total debt	$21.1B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$635M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Interest cover	0.2×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$2.22	15% above the close, from 6 analysts (range $1.00 to $3.00).
Consensus rating	Hold	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-03-31; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

HTZ: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Industrials & rentals: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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