Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & rentals
Money Flow Index on Hertz
HTZ with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding HTZ over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −12.5% | −32.7% | −21.6% | −41.2% |
| Total return | −50% | −87% | −70% | −93% |
| Worst drawdown | −85.4% | −95.7% | −85.4% | −95.7% |
| Volatility | 56.8% | 82.0% | 56.7% | 82.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.29 |
| Time invested | 64% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 6 of 9 closed calls (67%). In calls averaged −6.0%; out calls saw HTZ move −14.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | HTZ moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | IN | $1.76 | now | +9.1% | open |
| Apr 15, 2026 | OUT | $6.56 | Jul 20, 2026 | −73.2% | ✓ right |
| Jun 18, 2025 | IN | $5.88 | Apr 15, 2026 | +11.6% | ✓ right |
| Nov 19, 2024 | OUT | $4.00 | Jun 18, 2025 | +47.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 18, 2024 | IN | $8.99 | Nov 19, 2024 | −55.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 18, 2023 | OUT | $9.98 | Jan 18, 2024 | −9.9% | ✓ right |
| Sep 8, 2022 | IN | $18.91 | Dec 18, 2023 | −47.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 13, 2021 | OUT | $26.95 | Sep 8, 2022 | −29.8% | ✓ right |
| Aug 24, 2021 | IN | $16.11 | Oct 13, 2021 | +67.3% | ✓ right |
| Jul 23, 2021 | OUT | $16.77 | Aug 24, 2021 | −3.9% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 10 of 10 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.