Consumer & retail

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

$86.03 −0.7% on the day·−16.4% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Sell36 / 100

Sell: 36 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Off the high (−17% from its 1-year high) scores 45 and lifts it; Trend (−5% vs 200-day) scores 30 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	ORLY	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	34%	34	40	13.6
Off the high	−17% from its 1-year high	45	30	13.5
Trend	−5% vs 200-day	30	30	9.0

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ORLY

Factor	ORLY	Points	What it is
Plays in	34%	34	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+25% · 26 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.6 · buy	71	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	loss	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	23.5×	21	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.61	43	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	3.7×	49	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	negative book	0	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	−118%	2	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+8%	34	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	14%	58	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	–	–	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equity	negative equity	0	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−17% from its 1-year high	45	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−5% vs 200-day	30	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−16%	19	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	3/10 · moderate	70	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ORLY

34 of the 100 plays hold ORLY right now.
The volume plays mostly say in; the trend-following and breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 5% below its 200-day average and 17% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it owes more than it owns (negative equity).
Analysts' average 12-month target is $107.35, 25% above the close (26 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in34 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate3 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.95×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−5%). Higher than on 11% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ORLY now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn ORLY: right 8 of 30 · Out since Feb 27, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn ORLY: right 24 of 59 · Out since Sep 8, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn ORLY: right 11 of 21 · Out since Jun 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn ORLY: right 118 of 182 · Out since Sep 28, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn ORLY: right 18 of 29 · In since Feb 19, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn ORLY: right 74 of 148 · In since Oct 6, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn ORLY: right 23 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

ORLY, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ORLY lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Oct 8+2.1% against the S&P 5001.2× a normal day

ORLY +1.7%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session.

HeadlineMarketBeat · Oct 8, 7:47 pm ETafter that close
26,349 O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. $ORLY Shares Sold by Overbrook Management Corp
HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 8, 4:44 pm ETafter that close
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock underperforms Thursday when compared to competitors despite daily gains

Tue Sep 22+3.5% against the S&P 5001.7× a normal day

ORLY +3.5%, the S&P 500 0.0% that session; +5.4% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ORLY was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ORLY starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved 0.0%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 21−3.7% against the S&P 5001.8× a normal day

ORLY −2.2%, the S&P 500 +1.5% that session; +0.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ORLY was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ORLY starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.5%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.93.

Over its last 12 reports, ORLY's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±3.8% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 4 times.
ORLY after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 13 of 17 times (median +4.7%).
ORLY after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 11 of 16 times (median −2.9%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ORLY

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following5 of 30 in Breakouts & channels1 of 15 in Momentum6 of 17 in Mean reversion8 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns2 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ORLY went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below $85.72 (−0.4%)	24% 161/683	+4.8% / +20.5%	−44.1% / −45.3%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −3.5%	Enter above $88.38 (+2.7%)	30% 29/97	+12.3% / +20.5%	−39.9% / −45.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above $86.89 (+1.0%)	20% 81/401	+5.4% / +20.5%	−56.2% / −45.3%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2025 −16.7%	Not on one close	17% 36/217	+6.6% / +19.9%	−25.0% / −45.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jan 30, 2026 −12.6%	Enter above $109.85 (+27.7%)	22% 18/81	+11.5% / +20.5%	−32.7% / −45.3%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 24, 2025 −11.6%	Enter above $101.15 (+17.6%)	36% 43/119	+10.5% / +20.5%	−37.1% / −45.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	May 29, 2026 −1.0%	Enter above $91.84 (+6.7%)	32% 12/37	+15.8% / +20.5%	−39.7% / −45.3%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 −6.7%	Enter above $90.71 (+5.4%)	16% 23/147	+14.0% / +20.5%	−44.7% / −45.3%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Jan 2, 2026 −4.8%	Enter above $284.46 (+230.7%)	50% 9/18	+16.9% / +20.5%	−42.7% / −45.3%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	May 1, 2026 −11.0%	Enter above $282.73 (+228.6%)	17% 21/125	+13.0% / +20.5%	−41.0% / −45.3%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $89.05 (+3.5%)	43% 58/135	+12.1% / +20.5%	−32.1% / −45.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $86.28 (+0.3%)	22% 178/798	+4.1% / +20.5%	−49.5% / −45.3%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below $81.02 (−5.8%)	34% 92/271	+8.1% / +20.5%	−44.0% / −45.3%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	May 20, 2026 −6.7%	Enter above $153.11 (+78.0%)	54% 7/13	+18.5% / +20.1%	−28.6% / −45.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −2.0%	Enter above $100.97 (+17.4%)	29% 41/141	+9.0% / +20.5%	−29.7% / −45.3%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −1.1%	Enter above $89.01 (+3.5%)	31% 34/109	+10.8% / +20.5%	−39.6% / −45.3%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 +0.6%	Enter above $89.04 (+3.5%)	32% 49/152	+4.9% / +20.5%	−48.9% / −45.3%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 −4.7%	Not on one close	47% 153/325	+10.3% / +20.5%	−40.2% / −45.3%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below $87.20 (+1.4%)	34% 192/567	+7.1% / +20.5%	−37.8% / −45.3%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $82.83 (−3.7%)	41% 91/224	+10.9% / +20.5%	−50.9% / −45.3%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $83.10 (−3.4%)	37% 184/491	+7.3% / +20.5%	−43.5% / −45.3%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Feb 5, 2026 −7.4%	Not on one close	37% 63/170	+5.1% / +20.5%	−27.5% / −45.3%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −2.8%	Enter above $89.50 (+4.0%)	28% 55/199	+8.3% / +20.5%	−48.1% / −45.3%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −3.5%	Enter above $88.10 (+2.4%)	35% 68/196	+6.9% / +20.5%	−38.6% / −45.3%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above $86.74 (+0.8%)	30% 72/237	+8.4% / +20.5%	−41.6% / −45.3%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −3.4%	Not on one close	37% 82/222	+6.0% / +20.5%	−38.2% / −45.3%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −2.0%	Enter above $89.32 (+3.8%)	30% 51/171	+8.7% / +20.5%	−47.1% / −45.3%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −1.1%	Enter above $103.73 (+20.6%)	31% 29/95	+12.6% / +20.5%	−33.7% / −45.3%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −3.5%	Enter above $87.77 (+2.0%)	34% 65/192	+3.8% / +20.5%	−37.3% / −45.3%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 27, 2025 −4.7%	Not on one close	27% 8/30	+2.0% / +20.5%	−20.9% / −45.3%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −1.1%	Enter above $87.77 (+2.0%)	33% 41/123	+8.0% / +20.5%	−40.5% / −45.3%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −3.4%	Enter above $91.33 (+6.2%)	31% 46/150	+6.3% / +20.5%	−28.1% / −45.3%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	May 4, 2026 −8.5%	Enter above $94.12 (+9.4%)	30% 33/109	+4.9% / +20.5%	−30.0% / −45.3%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2025 −15.5%	Enter above $155.66 (+80.9%)	31% 34/110	+6.6% / +20.5%	−28.0% / −45.3%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 −5.5%	Enter above $87.45 (+1.7%)	34% 37/108	+6.5% / +20.5%	−28.5% / −45.3%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	May 8, 2026 −7.5%	Enter above $90.11 (+4.7%)	26% 42/160	+1.7% / +20.5%	−33.5% / −45.3%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −4.7%	Enter above $87.63 (+1.9%)	31% 65/210	+4.1% / +20.5%	−35.2% / −45.3%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −1.1%	Enter above $87.22 (+1.4%)	32% 57/180	+7.1% / +20.5%	−44.9% / −45.3%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −2.2%	Enter above $87.86 (+2.1%)	32% 51/160	+7.5% / +20.5%	−54.1% / −45.3%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +0.2%	Enter above $95.07 (+10.5%)	41% 24/59	+15.4% / +20.5%	−32.4% / −45.3%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −2.0%	Enter above $87.72 (+2.0%)	24% 78/328	+6.4% / +20.5%	−51.6% / −45.3%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jan 29, 2026 −13.0%	Not on one close	23% 43/184	+1.6% / +20.5%	−16.5% / −45.3%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −7.1%	Enter above $90.22 (+4.9%)	34% 57/168	+2.5% / +20.5%	−25.3% / −45.3%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.7%	Exit below $85.58 (−0.5%)	33% 233/701	+7.1% / +20.5%	−51.7% / −45.3%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	May 8, 2026 −7.5%	Not on one close	31% 11/36	+2.9% / +20.5%	−8.3% / −45.3%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	May 29, 2026 −1.0%	Enter above $97.93 (+13.8%)	42% 8/19	+19.0% / +20.4%	−30.6% / −45.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −6.6%	Not on one close	52% 11/21	+18.0% / +20.4%	−47.1% / −45.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Dec 31, 2025 −5.7%	Enter above $108.89 (+26.6%)	51% 19/37	+14.1% / +20.4%	−26.7% / −45.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Oct 23, 2025 −12.5%	Not on one close	17% 29/169	+8.0% / +20.5%	−32.3% / −45.3%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Dec 31, 2025 −5.7%	Enter above $96.62 (+12.3%)	47% 7/15	+14.9% / +20.5%	−38.8% / −45.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Oct 3, 2025 −17.9%	Enter above $92.75 (+7.8%)	36% 46/127	+13.1% / +20.5%	−30.1% / −45.3%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below $82.01 (−4.7%)	32% 142/447	+5.8% / +20.5%	−41.5% / −45.3%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below $85.72 (−0.4%)	28% 222/801	+5.4% / +20.5%	−51.1% / −45.3%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $72.90 (−15.3%)	40% 121/303	+7.2% / +20.5%	−33.8% / −45.3%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −3.1%	Enter above $103.25 (+20.0%)	100% 4/4	+21.7% / +19.4%	−42.0% / −45.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $86.96 (+1.1%)	27% 176/641	+0.9% / +20.5%	−43.8% / −45.3%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.7%	Exit below $68.57 (−20.3%)	40% 108/269	+7.8% / +20.5%	−38.4% / −45.3%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −2.8%	Enter above $89.80 (+4.4%)	28% 55/193	+8.9% / +20.5%	−46.7% / −45.3%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −3.7%	Enter above $87.97 (+2.3%)	37% 27/73	+15.0% / +20.4%	−40.5% / −45.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −6.6%	Not on one close	50% 9/18	+14.2% / +20.2%	−42.0% / −45.3%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −6.6%	Not on one close	48% 11/23	+14.4% / +20.4%	−47.1% / −45.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below $81.65 (−5.1%)	33% 116/349	+5.0% / +20.5%	−46.4% / −45.3%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Mar 23, 2026 −3.0%	Not on one close	55% 17/31	+6.8% / +20.5%	−41.6% / −45.3%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Feb 11, 2026 −8.6%	Not on one close	59% 207/349	+6.7% / +20.5%	−21.9% / −45.3%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Feb 13, 2026 −11.0%	Not on one close	66% 308/469	+11.0% / +20.5%	−23.6% / −45.3%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Buy below $83.24 (−3.2%)	65% 118/182	+8.6% / +20.5%	−34.5% / −45.3%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 −2.1%	Not on one close	63% 90/143	+10.4% / +20.5%	−37.9% / −45.3%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	59% 162/274	+8.7% / +20.5%	−35.2% / −45.3%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Dec 12, 2025 −8.6%	Not on one close	58% 40/69	+11.4% / +20.5%	−40.2% / −45.3%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +5,904.9%	Sell above $219.26 (+154.9%)	–	+20.5% / +20.5%	−45.3% / −45.3%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Feb 12, 2026 −9.6%	Not on one close	50% 6/12	+1.9% / +20.5%	−9.0% / −45.3%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.0%	Not on one close	42% 136/321	+7.0% / +20.5%	−46.5% / −45.3%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +0.7%	Not on one close	55% 243/444	+6.9% / +20.5%	−45.3% / −45.3%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above $86.03 (0.0%)	58% 1052/1805	+11.3% / +20.5%	−20.6% / −45.3%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Nov 21, 2025 −14.3%	Not on one close	57% 57/100	+5.8% / +20.5%	−40.8% / −45.3%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below $85.21 (−1.0%)	37% 405/1105	+0.9% / +20.5%	−62.1% / −45.3%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −3.7%	Sell above $87.13 (+1.3%)	52% 65/124	+5.7% / +20.5%	−44.3% / −45.3%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $86.03 (+0.0%)	27% 209/766	+5.2% / +20.5%	−54.3% / −45.3%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.7%	Not on one close	35% 69/198	+5.3% / +20.5%	−37.4% / −45.3%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Feb 19, 2026 −8.6%	Not on one close	62% 18/29	+6.0% / +20.5%	−45.8% / −45.3%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jul 24, 2026 −1.6%	Not on one close	38% 23/60	+18.0% / +20.6%	−40.5% / −45.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below $85.38 (−0.8%)	25% 192/773	+6.7% / +20.5%	−46.1% / −45.3%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.7%	Exit below $81.27 (−5.5%)	35% 127/359	+9.2% / +20.5%	−40.2% / −45.3%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.0%	Exit below $86.03 (0.0%)	31% 194/625	+4.7% / +20.5%	−46.0% / −45.3%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Dec 18, 2025 −6.3%	Not on one close	35% 27/77	+14.6% / +20.4%	−25.2% / −45.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	33% 336/1007	+1.0% / +20.5%	−57.8% / −45.3%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	50% 74/148	+8.8% / +20.5%	−30.1% / −45.3%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $82.83 (−3.7%)	38% 42/111	+8.3% / +20.5%	−32.3% / −45.3%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +0.7%	Not on one close	40% 23/58	+1.5% / +20.5%	−24.1% / −45.3%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −13.5%	Buys Oct 30	53% 23/43	+13.8% / +20.5%	−44.0% / −45.3%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.0%	Window opens Apr 1	52% 23/44	+13.3% / +20.5%	−42.0% / −45.3%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 27, 2026 −6.5%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+13.7% / +20.5%	−42.0% / −45.3%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −5.0%	Buys Dec 23	32% 14/44	+1.7% / +20.5%	−12.4% / −45.3%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +2.5%	Buys Oct 29	46% 240/526	+2.8% / +20.5%	−39.5% / −45.3%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.7%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+6.5% / +20.5%	−13.7% / −45.3%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −2.1%	Buys Nov 24	48% 193/400	+2.6% / +20.5%	−6.0% / −45.3%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +52.9%	Not on one close	20% 4/20	+6.5% / +20.5%	−40.1% / −45.3%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.7%	Sells Oct 16	50% 1148/2284	+11.3% / +20.5%	−46.2% / −45.3%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.8%	Buys Oct 27	42% 147/348	+1.0% / +20.5%	−21.3% / −45.3%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +1.3%	Sells Oct 16	52% 280/541	+10.3% / +20.5%	−44.2% / −45.3%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+20.5%	−45.3%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate3 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It owes more than it owns (negative equity).

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Mar 2009

ORLY−40%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high May 2020

ORLY−33%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Jul 2022

ORLY−18%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.21Moves about 0.2× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture99%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 99% as much on average.
Two-year change+9%
From 52-week high−16%
EquityNegativeOwes more than it owns.
Net debt / EBITDA2.2×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover14.8×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Auto Parts · O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$69.6B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$18.6B	Total sales. The market values it at 3.7× sales.
P/E ratio	n/a	Lost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Forward P/E	23.5×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	14.3%	Keeps 14¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+8.5%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−118.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Free cash flow	$1.6B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	−$763M	Negative: it owes more than it owns.
Total debt	$9.6B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$262M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Interest cover	14.8×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$107.35	25% above the close, from 26 analysts (range $91.00 to $120.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

ORLY: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Consumer & retail: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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