Guide · 9 plays
Volume & money flow: what it predicts, and when it works
Volume shows conviction. Money-flow plays read whether shares change hands more on up days or down days, betting that heavy buying shows up in volume before it shows up in price.
Why it might work
Large investors can't hide their size: buying a big position takes days of above-normal volume. Volume rising with price confirms a move; falling volume warns it is running out of buyers.
When it fails
Volume is noisy for single stocks, swings around earnings, index rebalances and option expiry, and differs between exchanges. Many money-flow signals end up tracking price anyway.
What the research says
- Joseph Granville's On-Balance Volume (1963) made the idea popular: a running total of volume on up days minus down days.
- Blume, Easley and O'Hara (1994) showed volume carries information about the quality of price signals that price alone doesn't.
- Gervais, Kaniel and Mingelgrin (2001) found stocks with unusually high trading volume tend to rise over the following month.
Every volume & money flow play, ranked
Share of stocks where each play did better than holding, since 2005 or as long as the stock has traded, after costs. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Cut the worst fall | Beat holding on return | Calls right | Switches / yr | Time in | In now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos | 21% | 81% | 19% | 32% | 4.9 | 65% | 219/377 |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart | 17% | 78% | 15% | 34% | 5.0 | 65% | 242/377 |
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville | 16% | 73% | 17% | 27% | 33.3 | 55% | 188/377 |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier | 15% | 80% | 15% | 34% | 16.7 | 56% | 175/377 |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack | 14% | 94% | 13% | 59% | 2.1 | 38% | 173/377 |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder | 14% | 70% | 14% | 28% | 31.7 | 56% | 187/377 |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin | 14% | 79% | 15% | 39% | 9.3 | 56% | 191/377 |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger | 10% | 73% | 13% | 35% | 41.8 | 50% | 238/377 |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin | 6% | 62% | 7% | 35% | 26.5 | 55% | 244/377 |
When it worked
The family did best against holding in the COVID drop (+14% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−26%). Median gap in return against holding (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume & money flow | +12% | −10% | +14% | −26% | +6% | −10% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often the family's plays beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Industrials & rentals | 31% | -0.15 |
| Real estate | 20% | -0.17 |
| Software & devices | 17% | -0.23 |
| Energy & power | 16% | -0.19 |
| Healthcare | 14% | -0.23 |
| Industrials & materials | 13% | -0.21 |
| Financials | 13% | -0.15 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 13% | -0.21 |
| Semiconductors | 12% | -0.26 |
| Media & telecom | 11% | -0.20 |
| Metals & mining | 11% | -0.23 |
| Consumer & retail | 9% | -0.27 |
| Big tech | 6% | -0.23 |
| Sectors | 4% | -0.27 |
How traders use it
- Use volume to confirm a price signal rather than on its own.
- Index and ETF volume is often distorted by fund flows; it reads best on actively traded single stocks.
Right now
The volume & money flow plays hold 55% of the stock-and-play combinations Be The Puck tracks (1,857 of 3,393) as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
See which stocks each family holds · The plays and their rules
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.