Guide · Mean reversion
Does ConnorsRSI Pullback work?
Across 375 stocks, ConnorsRSI Pullback cut the worst fall on 100%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 11% and on raw return on 9%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
Buy a stock in a strong trend after a sharp one-day sell-off pushes ConnorsRSI below 10, and sell when it recovers above 70.
- ConnorsRSI averages three 0 to 100 readings: a 3-day RSI of the close, a 2-day RSI of the current up or down streak, and where today's 1-day return ranks among the previous 100.
- In at the close when the 10-day ADX (a gauge of trend strength) is above 30, the day's low is at least 4% below the prior close, the close is in the bottom 25% of the day's range, and ConnorsRSI is below 10.
- Out at the close when ConnorsRSI is above 70.
Mean reversion plays bet that short, sharp moves tend to snap back. The family guide
How to use it
- It trades rarely (about 1.1 switches a year), so it suits someone who checks in occasionally, and a single bad call can last months.
- It sits in cash much of the time (holding on about 1% of days), so judge it on risk-adjusted return rather than on matching a rising market.
- It worked best on Micro caps (33% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Big tech (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
ConnorsRSI Pullback did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+49% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−44%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ConnorsRSI Pullback | +49% | −15% | +26% | −44% | +19% | −13% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Micro caps | 33% | -0.20 |
| Media & telecom | 20% | -0.19 |
| Metals & mining | 20% | -0.21 |
| Sectors | 17% | -0.27 |
| Software & devices | 12% | -0.32 |
| Industrials & materials | 12% | -0.32 |
| Healthcare | 11% | -0.24 |
| Industrials & rentals | 11% | -0.34 |
| Energy & power | 10% | -0.34 |
| Consumer & retail | 9% | -0.29 |
| Real estate | 5% | -0.42 |
| Semiconductors | 4% | -0.32 |
| Financials | 4% | -0.34 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 0% | -0.34 |
| Big tech | 0% | -0.49 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
ConnorsRSI Pullback holds 6 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.