Metals & mining

First Quantum Minerals (FM)

C$39.00 −0.2% on the day·+22.8% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Sell32 / 100

Sell: 32 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Trend (−0% vs 200-day) scores 42 and lifts it; Plays in (24%) scores 24 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	FM	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	24%	24	40	9.6
Off the high	−20% from its 1-year high	34	30	10.2
Trend	−0% vs 200-day	42	30	12.6

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for FM

Factor	FM	Points	What it is
Plays in	24%	24	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+27% · 22 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.8 · buy	61	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	loss	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	13.9×	60	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.96	68	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	4.0×	47	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	2.0×	74	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+700%	97	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+24%	69	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	−1%	12	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	−1%	15	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.66×	43	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−20% from its 1-year high	34	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−0% vs 200-day	42	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+23%	59	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	8/10 · very high	20	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on FM

24 of the 100 plays hold FM right now.
The trend-following and breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 0% below its 200-day average and 20% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads very high: it moves about 1.8× its index and fell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$49.69, 27% above the close (22 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in24 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureVery high8 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.00×Price ÷ its 200-day average (0%). Higher than on 36% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about FM now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn FM: right 10 of 30 · Out since Jan 30, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn FM: right 98 of 255 · Out since Sep 10, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn FM: right 10 of 30 · In since Oct 31, 2024 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn FM: right 112 of 173 · In since Sep 30, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn FM: right 28 of 38 · Out since Jun 10, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn FM: right 66 of 118 · Out since Sep 18, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn FM: right 26 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

FM, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved FM lately

Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Wed Sep 30−14.6% against the S&P/TSX5.1× a normal day

FM −15.3%, the S&P/TSX −0.6% that session; −12.0% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FM was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FM starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.6%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.9% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Thu Sep 10−6.1% against the S&P/TSX2.0× a normal day

FM −7.2%, the S&P/TSX −1.1% that session; −7.5% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FM was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FM starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.1%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −4.2% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.19.

Over its last 12 reports, FM's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±2.3% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 7 times.
FM after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 9 of 18 times (median +0.3%).
FM after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 11 of 26 times (median +1.2%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on FM

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following3 of 30 in Breakouts & channels1 of 15 in Momentum6 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on FM went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$41.40 (+6.1%)	29% 186/649	+9.2% / +12.2%	−68.5% / −91.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$41.87 (+7.4%)	31% 32/103	+13.1% / +12.2%	−60.2% / −91.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$42.19 (+8.2%)	23% 93/401	+3.9% / +12.2%	−76.1% / −91.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$43.70 (+12.1%)	18% 42/231	−0.1% / +12.2%	−65.3% / −91.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.2%	Enter above C$39.88 (+2.3%)	28% 26/93	+7.2% / +12.2%	−70.8% / −91.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$41.06 (+5.3%)	26% 26/99	+9.8% / +12.2%	−69.7% / −91.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$38.91 (−0.2%)	37% 13/35	+12.7% / +12.2%	−79.4% / −91.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +1.2%	Enter above C$39.20 (+0.5%)	16% 31/199	+6.9% / +12.2%	−72.3% / −91.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jun 25, 2024 +113.2%	Not on one close	34% 11/32	+7.1% / +12.2%	−84.2% / −91.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +1.2%	Enter above C$39.20 (+0.5%)	21% 22/107	+13.7% / +12.2%	−53.0% / −91.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$52.56 (+34.8%)	31% 47/151	+0.7% / +12.2%	−89.2% / −91.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$41.21 (+5.7%)	29% 233/795	+13.6% / +12.2%	−58.2% / −91.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −12.5%	Enter above C$58.10 (+49.0%)	34% 95/279	+0.1% / +12.2%	−89.1% / −91.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	May 20, 2025 +97.2%	Not on one close	24% 10/42	+3.0% / +10.6%	−86.3% / −91.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$59.63 (+52.9%)	28% 41/145	+5.3% / +12.2%	−73.0% / −91.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$44.83 (+15.0%)	33% 38/115	+13.6% / +12.2%	−63.8% / −91.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −9.2%	Enter above C$45.98 (+17.9%)	34% 66/197	−1.7% / +12.2%	−92.1% / −91.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −4.0%	Not on one close	36% 132/365	−5.0% / +12.2%	−91.3% / −91.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −13.0%	Enter above C$51.04 (+30.9%)	37% 213/575	+8.2% / +12.2%	−89.5% / −91.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −7.8%	Enter above C$47.11 (+20.8%)	35% 80/227	−3.6% / +12.2%	−91.5% / −91.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$43.93 (+12.6%)	41% 191/465	+4.8% / +12.2%	−87.0% / −91.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −10.3%	Enter above C$47.25 (+21.1%)	25% 43/171	−6.2% / +12.2%	−85.6% / −91.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$57.42 (+47.2%)	27% 56/207	+3.8% / +12.2%	−85.1% / −91.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$40.65 (+4.2%)	37% 129/353	+2.3% / +12.2%	−79.3% / −91.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$127.33 (+226.5%)	30% 74/247	+0.2% / +12.2%	−86.9% / −91.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −16.2%	Exit below C$28.00 (−28.2%)	37% 101/276	−3.9% / +12.2%	−93.0% / −91.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$55.32 (+41.9%)	27% 57/211	+2.7% / +12.2%	−84.1% / −91.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −4.0%	Enter above C$56.46 (+44.8%)	34% 34/101	+13.9% / +12.2%	−58.0% / −91.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −12.5%	Not on one close	37% 76/205	+8.7% / +12.2%	−72.7% / −91.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jan 30, 2026 +1.3%	Not on one close	33% 10/30	+0.4% / +12.2%	−33.1% / −91.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −7.8%	Enter above C$47.11 (+20.8%)	33% 46/139	+0.1% / +12.2%	−89.6% / −91.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −10.3%	Enter above C$47.11 (+20.8%)	25% 40/157	−3.9% / +12.2%	−90.1% / −91.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −10.3%	Enter above C$49.27 (+26.3%)	27% 29/107	−0.8% / +12.2%	−89.1% / −91.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −9.2%	Enter above C$48.69 (+24.8%)	22% 28/127	−6.9% / +12.2%	−92.9% / −91.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$46.10 (+18.2%)	32% 43/133	+3.2% / +12.2%	−77.1% / −91.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −12.0%	Enter above C$48.39 (+24.1%)	22% 44/197	−6.9% / +12.2%	−91.2% / −91.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −12.0%	Enter above C$48.98 (+25.6%)	28% 66/237	−5.1% / +12.2%	−89.0% / −91.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −10.3%	Enter above C$46.54 (+19.3%)	32% 73/227	−5.0% / +12.2%	−93.1% / −91.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −9.2%	Enter above C$45.37 (+16.3%)	36% 79/221	+1.5% / +12.2%	−90.4% / −91.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −9.2%	Enter above C$41.38 (+6.1%)	38% 98/255	+9.9% / +12.2%	−78.1% / −91.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −9.2%	Enter above C$42.35 (+8.6%)	25% 103/415	+2.2% / +12.2%	−79.8% / −91.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −18.3%	Not on one close	26% 62/243	−7.1% / +12.2%	−86.5% / −91.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −12.7%	Not on one close	39% 39/100	+0.9% / +12.2%	−55.2% / −91.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below C$37.58 (−3.6%)	38% 261/678	+20.0% / +12.2%	−59.8% / −91.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −12.0%	Not on one close	26% 11/42	−0.8% / +12.2%	−34.0% / −91.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2024 +116.8%	Exit below C$30.20 (−22.6%)	18% 6/34	+3.2% / +11.9%	−87.4% / −91.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2024 +116.8%	Not on one close	33% 10/30	+7.0% / +11.9%	−81.7% / −91.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +91.8%	Exit below C$33.57 (−13.9%)	30% 9/30	+6.8% / +11.9%	−78.8% / −91.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Not on one close	19% 33/173	+4.6% / +12.2%	−66.1% / −91.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above C$46.26 (+18.6%)	48% 15/31	+4.5% / +12.2%	−42.2% / −91.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$42.10 (+7.9%)	24% 29/119	+10.5% / +12.2%	−74.6% / −91.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$44.41 (+13.9%)	42% 169/401	+8.3% / +12.2%	−71.5% / −91.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$40.44 (+3.7%)	35% 257/741	+14.0% / +12.2%	−60.9% / −91.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −10.3%	Enter above C$66.19 (+69.7%)	36% 116/321	−3.9% / +12.2%	−93.7% / −91.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Aug 30, 2024 +129.8%	Not on one close	37% 7/19	+8.0% / +8.1%	−78.6% / −91.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −15.4%	Enter above C$50.12 (+28.5%)	33% 179/541	+7.0% / +12.2%	−52.9% / −91.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −12.5%	Enter above C$84.59 (+116.9%)	33% 97/291	−7.1% / +12.2%	−97.5% / −91.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$58.06 (+48.9%)	29% 57/199	+4.7% / +12.2%	−82.3% / −91.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$37.16 (−4.7%)	35% 28/81	+15.2% / +11.9%	−77.8% / −91.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2024 +116.8%	Not on one close	29% 8/28	−0.1% / +6.4%	−81.7% / −91.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +67.5%	Not on one close	43% 10/23	+3.9% / +11.9%	−78.2% / −91.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −10.3%	Enter above C$49.47 (+26.8%)	36% 123/337	+1.3% / +12.2%	−84.3% / −91.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 −2.5%	Not on one close	59% 20/34	+3.1% / +12.2%	−91.4% / −91.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −15.1%	Not on one close	57% 186/328	+3.6% / +12.2%	−47.9% / −91.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 −13.8%	Not on one close	60% 225/374	+7.1% / +12.2%	−77.1% / −91.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Sell above C$42.01 (+7.7%)	65% 112/173	+3.7% / +12.2%	−85.4% / −91.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 −11.3%	Not on one close	68% 120/177	+7.0% / +12.2%	−85.8% / −91.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −13.7%	Not on one close	64% 195/306	+16.2% / +12.2%	−68.8% / −91.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Jun 3, 2026 −13.9%	Not on one close	63% 52/82	+6.9% / +12.2%	−87.4% / −91.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,099.9%	Sell above C$94.74 (+142.9%)	–	+12.2% / +12.2%	−91.0% / −91.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Dec 13, 2023 +267.9%	Not on one close	57% 17/30	+1.8% / +12.2%	−33.8% / −91.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$40.07 (+2.8%)	55% 193/351	+18.0% / +12.2%	−84.8% / −91.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 −4.0%	Not on one close	56% 230/409	+9.0% / +12.2%	−77.3% / −91.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Buy below C$39.00 (0.0%)	54% 966/1794	−9.9% / +12.2%	−97.2% / −91.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 −7.7%	Sell above C$45.88 (+17.6%)	61% 60/99	+4.2% / +12.2%	−70.6% / −91.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$36.81 (−5.6%)	40% 413/1044	+13.9% / +12.2%	−58.7% / −91.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Sell above C$39.00 (+0.0%)	65% 99/153	+9.4% / +12.2%	−87.5% / −91.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +1.2%	Enter above C$39.00 (+0.0%)	29% 209/729	+15.9% / +12.2%	−81.6% / −91.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Not on one close	32% 76/236	−8.4% / +12.2%	−99.0% / −91.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jun 10, 2025 +82.2%	Not on one close	74% 28/38	+16.2% / +12.2%	−83.2% / −91.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Nov 21, 2025 +36.2%	Not on one close	39% 49/126	+9.1% / +12.3%	−70.1% / −91.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$44.36 (+13.7%)	31% 227/723	+14.3% / +12.2%	−66.3% / −91.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$51.95 (+33.2%)	37% 142/385	+0.7% / +12.2%	−89.4% / −91.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$39.00 (+0.0%)	41% 245/594	+5.9% / +12.2%	−87.1% / −91.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 25, 2025 +65.4%	Not on one close	31% 41/132	+4.1% / +12.5%	−89.7% / −91.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.0%	Buy C$38.66–C$40.10 (−0.9%)	37% 353/955	+9.3% / +12.2%	−75.9% / −91.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −10.5%	Not on one close	56% 66/118	+10.3% / +12.2%	−87.2% / −91.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Jun 24, 2025 +72.9%	Exit below C$21.02 (−46.1%)	38% 45/118	+11.1% / +12.2%	−75.3% / −91.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Mar 13, 2025 +91.7%	Not on one close	40% 19/48	+1.6% / +12.2%	−25.7% / −91.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +17.3%	Buys Oct 30	60% 26/43	+20.1% / +12.2%	−71.8% / −91.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 +5.9%	Enter above C$40.26 (+3.2%)	56% 24/43	+16.9% / +12.2%	−78.4% / −91.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 +8.8%	Window opens Oct 16	53% 23/43	+14.0% / +12.2%	−81.2% / −91.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −1.4%	Buys Dec 23	59% 26/44	+6.7% / +12.2%	−18.6% / −91.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −4.0%	Buys Oct 29	51% 267/526	+15.5% / +12.2%	−43.2% / −91.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.0%	Sells Jun 30	55% 6/11	+6.2% / +12.2%	−49.5% / −91.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −12.5%	Buys Nov 24	51% 197/386	+7.3% / +12.2%	−19.3% / −91.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +38.7%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+0.5% / +12.2%	−92.3% / −91.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	52% 1190/2284	+17.2% / +12.2%	−79.9% / −91.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −7.7%	Buys Oct 27	51% 176/348	+6.2% / +12.2%	−19.8% / −91.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −0.9%	Sells Oct 16	52% 281/541	+4.8% / +12.2%	−87.3% / −91.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+12.2%	−91.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureVery high8 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt3/3
Run-up1/2

It moves about 1.8× its index.
It fell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes.
It operating profit covers interest only 1.7×.
It is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Dec 2008 · back to its old high Jan 2010

FM−86%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jul 2020

FM−58%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2022

FM−37%

TSX−14%

Beta1.79Moves about 1.8× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture79%In months the TSX fell, this fell 79% as much on average.
Two-year change+113%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−20%
Debt to equity0.69×
Net debt / EBITDA4.2×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover1.7×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Copper · First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc products. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Kansanshi project located in the northwestern Province of Zambia. The company was formerly known as First Quantum Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in July 1996. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$32.5B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$5.7B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	n/a	Lost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Forward P/E	13.9×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	2.0×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	−1.4%	Spends more than it brings in.
Revenue growth	+24.1%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+700.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	−1.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	−$91.1M	Burning cash: needs savings or new money to keep going.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$11.2B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$7.7B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$779M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.69×	Moderate.
Interest cover	1.7×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$49.69	27% above the close, from 22 analysts (range C$41.11 to C$59.77).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

FM: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Metals & mining: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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