Consumer & retail

Aritzia (ATZ)

C$146.44 −0.3% on the day·+70.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy63 / 100

Buy: 63 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+10% vs 200-day) scores 73 and lifts it; Off the high (−15% from its 1-year high) scores 48 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	ATZ	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	66%	66	40	26.4
Off the high	−15% from its 1-year high	48	30	14.4
Trend	+10% vs 200-day	73	30	21.9

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ATZ

Factor	ATZ	Points	What it is
Plays in	66%	66	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+25% · 14 analysts	64	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.6 · buy	70	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	29.5×	40	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	22.9×	23	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	–	–	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales	3.8×	49	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	11.2×	15	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+204%	92	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+44%	82	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	14%	56	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	44%	91	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.79×	38	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−15% from its 1-year high	48	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+10% vs 200-day	73	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+70%	85	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	7/10 · very high	30	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ATZ

66 of the 100 plays hold ATZ right now.
The trend-following, breakout, momentum and volume plays mostly say in.
It closed 10% above its 200-day average and 15% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads very high: it moves about 1.6× its index and fell about 2.1× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$182.43, 25% above the close (14 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in66 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureVery high7 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.10×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+10%). Higher than on 50% of days since 2017. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ATZ now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn ATZ: right 9 of 26 · Out since Nov 19, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn ATZ: right 26 of 58 · In since Oct 9, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn ATZ: right 9 of 17 · In since Jul 31, 2024 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn ATZ: right 53 of 80 · Out since Oct 2, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn ATZ: right 19 of 27 · In since Jul 9, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn ATZ: right 34 of 66 · Out since Oct 6, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn ATZ: right 9 of 20 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

ATZ, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ATZ lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 9+19.0% against the S&P/TSX8.6× a normal day

ATZ +20.5%, the S&P/TSX +1.5% that session.

Big beatEarnings report · Oct 8, 4:00 pm ET
ATZ reported earnings per share of 1.31 against 1.05 expected: a 24.4% beat.
After big beats, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 66% of the time (1,907 of 2,878 on 308 stocks; median move +1.9%). High predictability
ATZ after big beats: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 13 of 15 times (median +9.5%).
Guidance raisedFinancial Post · Oct 8, 6:02 pm ET
Aritzia raises 2027 outlook as revenue climbs 44% to $1.17 billion
After guidance-raised headlines, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 45% of the time (9 of 20 on 13 stocks; median move −0.2%). Low predictability Early read
HeadlineYahoo! Finance Canada · Oct 8, 5:27 pm ET
Red Hot: Aritzia Posts Huge Q2 Gains
HeadlineYahoo! Finance Canada · Oct 8, 4:29 pm ET
Aritzia Q2 profit roughly triples to $201.7 million as U.S. revenues grow
HeadlinePR Newswire · Oct 8, 4:01 pm ET
Aritzia Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ATZ

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following23 of 30 in Breakouts & channels12 of 15 in Momentum13 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ATZ went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2016. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$127.15 (−13.2%)	30% 72/239	+22.4% / +24.4%	−60.4% / −64.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$134.38 (−8.2%)	33% 14/43	+20.9% / +30.0%	−38.5% / −64.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$127.91 (−12.7%)	27% 33/123	+23.9% / +26.1%	−46.9% / −64.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jul 13, 2026 −2.1%	Not on one close	28% 16/58	+15.7% / +31.1%	−28.0% / −64.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$139.64 (−4.6%)	26% 6/23	+15.5% / +27.7%	−51.2% / −64.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$139.64 (−4.6%)	19% 7/37	+12.1% / +29.2%	−66.1% / −64.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +22.2%	Enter above C$131.98 (−9.9%)	28% 5/18	+14.2% / +30.2%	−59.5% / −64.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$132.64 (−9.4%)	16% 12/73	+14.9% / +29.6%	−50.7% / −64.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +19.5%	Enter above C$331.81 (+126.6%)	38% 6/16	+18.3% / +29.6%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$132.64 (−9.4%)	18% 9/49	+13.8% / +30.4%	−51.0% / −64.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$110.52 (−24.5%)	47% 24/51	+28.1% / +25.5%	−39.6% / −64.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$132.64 (−9.4%)	24% 80/335	+15.5% / +24.1%	−53.1% / −64.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +16.7%	Exit below C$53.86 (−63.2%)	33% 38/116	+10.1% / +27.2%	−69.3% / −64.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	May 2, 2025 +159.6%	Not on one close	27% 4/15	+12.9% / +32.0%	−65.6% / −64.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 +0.9%	Enter above C$160.38 (+9.5%)	42% 17/40	+28.1% / +26.8%	−32.0% / −64.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$133.33 (−9.0%)	41% 16/39	+27.1% / +25.2%	−27.0% / −64.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$122.96 (−16.0%)	44% 30/68	+21.9% / +24.0%	−45.5% / −64.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Jun 29, 2026 −4.7%	Not on one close	45% 60/133	+15.6% / +24.0%	−36.2% / −64.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +17.4%	Exit below C$119.66 (−18.3%)	33% 78/236	+16.4% / +23.1%	−63.0% / −64.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$114.90 (−21.5%)	38% 35/92	+22.8% / +24.0%	−42.6% / −64.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$116.20 (−20.7%)	40% 80/200	+22.9% / +22.9%	−38.1% / −64.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$119.72 (−18.2%)	35% 31/89	+8.0% / +24.1%	−54.9% / −64.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$107.89 (−26.3%)	40% 25/63	+21.1% / +24.4%	−41.7% / −64.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +19.4%	Exit below C$141.03 (−3.7%)	43% 45/105	+22.0% / +23.9%	−50.5% / −64.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	40% 32/81	+26.5% / +24.4%	−40.4% / −64.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +16.7%	Exit below C$114.90 (−21.5%)	34% 34/100	+16.9% / +27.2%	−35.1% / −64.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$109.92 (−24.9%)	42% 23/55	+23.1% / +26.1%	−46.8% / −64.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Jul 23, 2026 +10.2%	Enter above C$174.13 (+18.9%)	42% 15/36	+22.3% / +26.1%	−32.2% / −64.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$119.98 (−18.1%)	29% 28/97	−1.3% / +27.4%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Nov 19, 2025 +44.3%	Not on one close	35% 9/26	+0.3% / +24.4%	−25.9% / −64.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$114.90 (−21.5%)	43% 27/63	+13.1% / +24.0%	−54.2% / −64.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$135.70 (−7.3%)	37% 24/65	+13.2% / +24.4%	−30.5% / −64.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$148.29 (+1.3%)	39% 17/44	+14.5% / +24.4%	−24.7% / −64.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jun 24, 2026 −4.7%	Enter above C$281.25 (+92.1%)	39% 15/38	+16.9% / +26.1%	−26.1% / −64.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Jul 6, 2026 −2.5%	Not on one close	35% 18/52	+11.5% / +24.0%	−38.7% / −64.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$127.20 (−13.1%)	34% 28/83	+8.0% / +24.1%	−31.7% / −64.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$123.91 (−15.4%)	34% 38/113	+6.3% / +23.7%	−58.7% / −64.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$130.47 (−10.9%)	40% 36/89	+13.8% / +24.2%	−61.5% / −64.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$124.49 (−15.0%)	46% 34/74	+26.0% / +24.0%	−46.6% / −64.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$113.62 (−22.4%)	45% 26/58	+18.9% / +23.0%	−44.6% / −64.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$129.69 (−11.4%)	27% 41/153	+19.1% / +24.0%	−51.5% / −64.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$137.56 (−6.1%)	36% 34/95	+5.6% / +24.0%	−21.4% / −64.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$72.38 (−50.6%)	42% 25/59	+5.3% / +24.1%	−27.7% / −64.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +22.1%	Exit below C$120.66 (−17.6%)	38% 108/286	+20.6% / +23.0%	−58.5% / −64.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$123.91 (−15.4%)	16% 3/19	+4.5% / +27.5%	−16.0% / −64.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jun 28, 2024 +278.2%	Exit below C$101.59 (−30.6%)	31% 4/13	+18.5% / +34.1%	−59.5% / −64.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +223.1%	Not on one close	53% 9/17	+23.7% / +34.1%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +223.1%	Exit below C$112.96 (−22.9%)	29% 5/17	+10.0% / +34.1%	−66.6% / −64.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 12, 2026 +4.5%	Not on one close	14% 9/64	+17.2% / +26.0%	−38.0% / −64.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +4.8%	Enter above C$164.54 (+12.4%)	50% 6/12	+19.5% / +29.2%	−31.0% / −64.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Jul 24, 2026 +8.9%	Enter above C$148.03 (+1.1%)	37% 14/38	+16.1% / +27.1%	−55.9% / −64.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +22.1%	Exit below C$90.47 (−38.2%)	35% 64/184	+17.0% / +24.4%	−51.3% / −64.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$128.60 (−12.2%)	31% 98/314	+15.9% / +24.4%	−65.2% / −64.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +22.2%	Exit below C$45.66 (−68.8%)	39% 56/145	+14.8% / +24.5%	−59.7% / −64.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jan 31, 2024 +347.7%	Not on one close	33% 1/3	+19.1% / +29.1%	−46.8% / −64.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$124.29 (−15.1%)	31% 80/261	+12.8% / +24.0%	−38.1% / −64.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +22.2%	Not on one close	34% 41/120	+13.8% / +26.1%	−68.0% / −64.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$108.41 (−26.0%)	44% 26/59	+24.0% / +26.1%	−41.7% / −64.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +10.9%	Enter above C$124.27 (−15.1%)	33% 10/30	+22.6% / +34.1%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +223.1%	Not on one close	53% 8/15	+30.4% / +34.5%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Apr 30, 2025 +202.0%	Not on one close	27% 4/15	+17.7% / +34.1%	−59.5% / −64.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +19.5%	Exit below C$67.55 (−53.9%)	36% 48/134	+20.2% / +27.2%	−59.6% / −64.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	May 21, 2025 +130.8%	Not on one close	36% 5/14	+0.3% / +23.0%	−65.4% / −64.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 +6.1%	Not on one close	63% 82/130	+4.6% / +29.6%	−56.7% / −64.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +16.7%	Not on one close	58% 91/156	+2.9% / +29.6%	−58.5% / −64.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +19.4%	Buy below C$104.92 (−28.4%)	66% 53/80	−0.7% / +23.7%	−59.4% / −64.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Jun 26, 2026 −7.4%	Not on one close	60% 39/65	+8.2% / +23.4%	−53.8% / −64.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Jul 20, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below C$141.16 (−3.6%)	61% 78/127	+12.6% / +23.1%	−53.4% / −64.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Jun 29, 2026 −4.7%	Not on one close	64% 21/33	+6.2% / +23.1%	−58.4% / −64.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Jul 19, 2017 +992.8%	Sell above C$320.59 (+118.9%)	–	+29.6% / +29.6%	−64.8% / −64.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Oct 18, 2024 +224.7%	Not on one close	56% 9/16	−2.3% / +27.2%	−45.9% / −64.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +20.8%	Not on one close	50% 70/140	+10.1% / +24.1%	−51.7% / −64.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +22.2%	Not on one close	54% 96/178	+8.3% / +24.1%	−60.5% / −64.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +18.8%	Buy below C$146.44 (0.0%)	55% 456/823	−1.6% / +24.3%	−67.8% / −64.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	50% 19/38	+0.7% / +29.6%	−59.4% / −64.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +19.5%	Exit below C$121.72 (−16.9%)	36% 172/481	+12.7% / +24.4%	−70.4% / −64.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +4.8%	Sell above C$122.30 (−16.5%)	57% 31/54	+11.5% / +24.2%	−64.2% / −64.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +21.3%	Not on one close	30% 94/312	+19.9% / +23.7%	−58.8% / −64.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	45% 38/85	+22.4% / +24.0%	−51.6% / −64.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Jul 9, 2026 −1.7%	Not on one close	70% 19/27	+19.8% / +23.0%	−35.6% / −64.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +20.1%	Enter above C$146.95 (+0.3%)	34% 22/64	+8.8% / +31.1%	−54.7% / −64.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below C$95.56 (−34.7%)	32% 80/247	+24.9% / +24.0%	−43.5% / −64.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +17.4%	Not on one close	36% 55/152	+18.1% / +23.7%	−64.7% / −64.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +18.8%	Not on one close	35% 91/261	+10.8% / +24.0%	−47.2% / −64.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 +8.8%	Not on one close	43% 13/30	+28.4% / +32.6%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	33% 131/400	+9.5% / +26.9%	−65.6% / −64.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +20.8%	Not on one close	52% 34/66	+10.4% / +22.8%	−59.5% / −64.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Apr 8, 2026 +17.2%	Exit below C$119.98 (−18.1%)	37% 18/49	+0.2% / +23.8%	−50.7% / −64.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +17.4%	Not on one close	53% 19/36	+4.9% / +23.9%	−8.7% / −64.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +2.1%	Buys Oct 30	45% 9/20	+10.8% / +24.3%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 +5.4%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+9.7% / +24.4%	−59.5% / −64.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 5, 2026 +3.7%	Window opens Oct 16	47% 9/19	+9.2% / +24.4%	−60.6% / −64.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +24.9%	Buys Dec 23	35% 7/20	+2.0% / +24.3%	−7.9% / −64.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +17.4%	Buys Oct 29	48% 115/240	+0.9% / +24.3%	−37.8% / −64.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +22.2%	Sells Jun 30	20% 1/5	+1.6% / +24.3%	−37.0% / −64.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +13.8%	Buys Nov 24	49% 90/182	+6.2% / +24.3%	−5.0% / −64.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +209.3%	Not on one close	67% 4/6	+18.6% / +24.5%	−59.0% / −64.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	52% 543/1045	+23.7% / +24.3%	−53.5% / −64.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +22.7%	Buys Oct 27	41% 64/158	−1.9% / +24.3%	−22.6% / −64.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +19.4%	Sells Oct 16	50% 124/248	+18.7% / +24.3%	−37.2% / −64.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Oct 3, 2016	Always in	–	+23.6%	−64.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureVery high7 of 10 points

Market swings3/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up2/2

It moves about 1.6× its index.
It fell about 2.1× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 210% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Dec 2020

ATZ−59%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Oct 2022

ATZ−37%

TSX−14%

Beta1.60Moves about 1.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture140%In months the TSX fell, this fell 140% as much on average.
Two-year change+210%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−15%
Debt to equity0.87×
Net debt / EBITDA0.8×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover10.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Apparel Retail · Aritzia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and sells apparels and accessories for women in the United States and Canada. The company offers activewear, blazers and vests, dresses, intimates and shapewear, jackets and coats, jeans, lounge wears, pants, bodysuits, tanks, shirts and blouses, shorts, skirts, sweaters and cardigans, sweatpants, sweatshirts and hoodies, denim, and sweat suits, as well as t-shirts, and tops.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$16.6B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$4.3B	Total sales. The market values it at 3.8× sales.
P/E ratio	29.5×	Buyers pay C$30 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	22.9×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	11.2×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	13.6%	Keeps 14¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+44.1%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+203.6%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	44.0%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$541M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$1.4B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$1.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$528M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.87×	Moderate.
Interest cover	10.2×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$182.43	25% above the close, from 14 analysts (range C$135.00 to C$228.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

ATZ: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Consumer & retail: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

Another stock

Email me Test a theory