Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on Aritzia
ATZ with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2016
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ATZ over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2016 | Hold, since 2016 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +19.8% | +23.0% | +21.0% | +29.4% |
| Total return | +502% | +681% | +158% | +261% |
| Worst drawdown | −35.6% | −64.8% | −35.6% | −64.8% |
| Volatility | 27.2% | 43.4% | 33.0% | 48.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 19 of 27 closed calls (70%). In calls averaged +15.7%; out calls saw ATZ move +9.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ATZ moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | IN | C$148.98 | now | −1.7% | open |
| Feb 23, 2026 | OUT | C$123.97 | Jul 9, 2026 | +20.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 3, 2026 | IN | C$114.41 | Feb 23, 2026 | +8.4% | ✓ right |
| May 15, 2025 | OUT | C$66.29 | Feb 3, 2026 | +72.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IN | C$52.92 | May 15, 2025 | +25.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OUT | C$57.04 | Mar 12, 2025 | −7.2% | ✓ right |
| Oct 18, 2024 | IN | C$45.10 | Jan 8, 2025 | +26.5% | ✓ right |
| Sep 27, 2024 | OUT | C$48.99 | Oct 18, 2024 | −7.9% | ✓ right |
| Aug 8, 2024 | IN | C$42.51 | Sep 27, 2024 | +15.2% | ✓ right |
| Jun 21, 2024 | OUT | C$37.25 | Aug 8, 2024 | +14.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 4, 2024 | IN | C$36.40 | Jun 21, 2024 | +2.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 30, 2024 | OUT | C$33.83 | Mar 4, 2024 | +7.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 28 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.