Energy & power

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)

C$74.19 +4.8% on the day·+75.9% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy86 / 100

Buy: 86 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 100 and lifts it; Plays in (72%) scores 72 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	CNQ	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	72%	72	40	28.8
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	30	30.0
Trend	+22% vs 200-day	92	30	27.6

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for CNQ

Factor	CNQ	Points	What it is
Plays in	72%	72	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	−2% · 21 analysts	26	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.3 · buy	37	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	13.2×	86	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	13.3×	64	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	3.42	13	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	3.4×	52	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	3.3×	44	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	3.5%	78	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+84%	77	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+70%	91	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	26%	77	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	27%	81	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.43×	57	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+22% vs 200-day	92	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+76%	89	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	0/10 · low	100	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on CNQ

72 of the 100 plays hold CNQ right now.
The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say in.
It closed 22% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$72.90, 2% below the close (21 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in72 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.22×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+22%). Higher than on 84% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about CNQ now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn CNQ: right 13 of 30 · Out since Apr 8, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn CNQ: right 43 of 123 · In since Aug 14, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn CNQ: right 7 of 22 · In since Dec 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn CNQ: right 106 of 180 · Out since Jul 8, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn CNQ: right 22 of 37 · Out since Jan 15, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn CNQ: right 57 of 109 · Out since Aug 5, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn CNQ: right 28 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

CNQ, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved CNQ lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Sep 1+4.9% against the S&P/TSX2.2× a normal day

CNQ +3.7%, the S&P/TSX −1.2% that session; +1.4% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CNQ was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CNQ starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.2%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.7% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Thu Nov 5, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 1.48.

Over its last 12 reports, CNQ's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±1.5% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 7 times.
CNQ after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 24 of 35 times (median +0.6%).
CNQ after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 6 of 9 times (median −0.3%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on CNQ

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following25 of 30 in Breakouts & channels12 of 15 in Momentum16 of 17 in Mean reversion7 of 15 in Volume & money flow6 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on CNQ went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below C$69.14 (−6.8%)	31% 194/632	+8.9% / +15.5%	−49.8% / −76.2%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jul 24, 2026 +14.3%	Exit below C$64.52 (−13.0%)	23% 29/124	+6.3% / +15.5%	−58.5% / −76.2%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +9.0%	Exit below C$67.71 (−8.7%)	25% 100/396	+7.9% / +15.5%	−50.5% / −76.2%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +9.0%	Exit below C$68.24 (−8.0%)	19% 32/170	+6.9% / +15.5%	−47.2% / −76.2%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jul 10, 2026 +26.7%	Exit below C$63.91 (−13.9%)	27% 20/74	+10.0% / +15.5%	−49.4% / −76.2%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jul 10, 2026 +26.7%	Exit below C$63.91 (−13.9%)	34% 27/80	+10.5% / +15.5%	−44.8% / −76.2%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +83.1%	Exit below C$61.82 (−16.7%)	33% 16/48	+10.1% / +15.5%	−54.2% / −76.2%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Jan 8, 2026 +74.7%	Exit below C$60.79 (−18.1%)	13% 27/210	+6.7% / +15.5%	−61.9% / −76.2%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2025 +83.9%	Not on one close	30% 12/40	+5.4% / +15.5%	−86.4% / −76.2%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Jan 8, 2026 +74.7%	Exit below C$60.79 (−18.1%)	13% 20/152	+5.9% / +15.5%	−65.6% / −76.2%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.8%	Exit below C$70.21 (−5.4%)	37% 53/145	+5.5% / +15.5%	−58.1% / −76.2%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below C$69.80 (−5.9%)	26% 210/806	+8.0% / +15.5%	−56.3% / −76.2%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 +7.0%	Enter above C$71.62 (−3.5%)	39% 97/250	+10.1% / +15.5%	−69.7% / −76.2%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2025 +77.5%	Not on one close	24% 10/42	+4.3% / +13.9%	−81.9% / −76.2%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Jul 22, 2026 +16.1%	Exit below C$60.18 (−18.9%)	28% 39/139	+6.5% / +15.5%	−51.7% / −76.2%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Jul 22, 2026 +16.1%	Exit below C$63.15 (−14.9%)	28% 34/122	+10.8% / +15.5%	−44.1% / −76.2%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 +22.8%	Exit below C$67.42 (−9.1%)	36% 62/173	+8.4% / +15.5%	−55.1% / −76.2%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +10.5%	Flips at next check	43% 147/340	+4.4% / +15.5%	−59.0% / −76.2%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.8%	Exit below C$61.92 (−16.5%)	37% 198/537	+11.8% / +15.5%	−51.0% / −76.2%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$66.05 (−11.0%)	36% 76/213	+5.9% / +15.5%	−62.4% / −76.2%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +9.4%	Exit below C$67.19 (−9.4%)	42% 213/502	+9.7% / +15.5%	−69.1% / −76.2%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Apr 14, 2026 +20.5%	Not on one close	27% 41/154	−1.0% / +15.5%	−80.1% / −76.2%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +7.6%	Exit below C$61.19 (−17.5%)	30% 59/195	+6.9% / +15.5%	−48.8% / −76.2%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.8%	Exit below C$67.97 (−8.4%)	34% 90/266	+6.8% / +15.5%	−69.9% / −76.2%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below C$47.29 (−36.3%)	27% 71/261	+0.8% / +15.5%	−75.2% / −76.2%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.8%	Not on one close	37% 97/261	+6.9% / +15.5%	−61.5% / −76.2%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +7.4%	Exit below C$60.62 (−18.3%)	32% 56/177	+6.7% / +15.5%	−53.5% / −76.2%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +13.1%	Exit below C$43.89 (−40.8%)	27% 28/104	+8.1% / +15.5%	−52.0% / −76.2%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +6.9%	Not on one close	36% 81/228	+4.9% / +15.5%	−48.1% / −76.2%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Apr 8, 2026 +18.0%	Not on one close	43% 13/30	+2.7% / +15.5%	−11.5% / −76.2%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +21.9%	Exit below C$66.05 (−11.0%)	35% 46/133	+7.3% / +15.5%	−57.6% / −76.2%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$70.65 (−4.8%)	29% 45/153	+3.4% / +15.5%	−61.0% / −76.2%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +9.5%	Exit below C$66.05 (−11.0%)	31% 29/95	+5.8% / +15.5%	−51.4% / −76.2%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +12.1%	Exit below C$68.25 (−8.0%)	27% 29/107	+4.7% / +15.5%	−47.3% / −76.2%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +9.5%	Exit below C$66.24 (−10.7%)	31% 39/126	−0.7% / +15.5%	−84.7% / −76.2%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$69.18 (−6.8%)	27% 53/193	+1.1% / +15.5%	−71.3% / −76.2%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$68.73 (−7.4%)	31% 71/229	+4.4% / +15.5%	−57.6% / −76.2%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$68.99 (−7.0%)	40% 72/181	+11.7% / +15.5%	−40.7% / −76.2%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$68.27 (−8.0%)	37% 75/201	+7.6% / +15.5%	−51.5% / −76.2%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Aug 14, 2026 +12.7%	Exit below C$65.26 (−12.0%)	35% 43/123	+4.1% / +15.5%	−68.4% / −76.2%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.8%	Exit below C$68.60 (−7.5%)	28% 102/367	+9.8% / +15.5%	−39.9% / −76.2%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +6.1%	Enter above C$72.79 (−1.9%)	26% 64/242	+0.0% / +15.5%	−45.1% / −76.2%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Jun 24, 2025 +81.1%	Not on one close	40% 40/100	+2.9% / +15.5%	−29.8% / −76.2%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +9.0%	Exit below C$66.58 (−10.3%)	32% 236/730	+7.6% / +15.5%	−60.9% / −76.2%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jan 16, 2020 +428.4%	Not on one close	38% 9/24	+2.0% / +15.5%	−20.8% / −76.2%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +63.5%	Exit below C$44.63 (−39.8%)	36% 10/28	+10.1% / +14.9%	−50.0% / −76.2%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +64.2%	Not on one close	32% 7/22	+7.2% / +14.9%	−83.2% / −76.2%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +50.8%	Exit below C$49.63 (−33.1%)	53% 17/32	+10.9% / +14.9%	−40.4% / −76.2%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 14, 2026 +12.7%	Sell above C$85.32 (+15.0%)	23% 39/166	+5.5% / +15.5%	−40.6% / −76.2%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +12.1%	Exit below C$63.06 (−15.0%)	39% 11/28	+7.7% / +15.5%	−50.1% / −76.2%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Aug 21, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below C$66.30 (−10.6%)	27% 39/146	+4.9% / +15.5%	−55.5% / −76.2%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below C$64.69 (−12.8%)	35% 161/457	+8.1% / +15.5%	−77.6% / −76.2%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below C$69.56 (−6.2%)	35% 255/728	+8.1% / +15.5%	−73.1% / −76.2%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$65.50 (−11.7%)	41% 127/311	+6.4% / +15.5%	−78.3% / −76.2%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +73.8%	Not on one close	53% 8/15	+8.2% / +10.6%	−81.8% / −76.2%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.8%	Exit below C$69.05 (−6.9%)	32% 174/549	+6.1% / +15.5%	−41.3% / −76.2%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +6.7%	Enter above C$69.70 (−6.0%)	39% 107/274	+4.7% / +15.5%	−85.1% / −76.2%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +7.6%	Exit below C$61.16 (−17.6%)	30% 57/191	+6.3% / +15.5%	−51.7% / −76.2%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +12.1%	Exit below C$64.54 (−13.0%)	46% 33/72	+13.7% / +14.9%	−54.1% / −76.2%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +64.2%	Not on one close	32% 6/19	+3.8% / +12.1%	−83.6% / −76.2%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +64.2%	Not on one close	25% 6/24	+6.0% / +14.9%	−77.1% / −76.2%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$66.96 (−9.7%)	37% 121/329	+7.8% / +15.5%	−73.0% / −76.2%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 16, 2025 +73.2%	Not on one close	70% 32/46	+9.0% / +15.5%	−72.8% / −76.2%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +10.1%	Not on one close	59% 192/324	−2.2% / +15.5%	−76.3% / −76.2%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +9.0%	Buy C$60.79–C$67.80 (−8.6%)	60% 217/362	+1.2% / +15.5%	−80.7% / −76.2%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 +24.6%	Buy below C$64.61 (−12.9%)	59% 106/180	+4.9% / +15.5%	−74.4% / −76.2%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +9.4%	Sell C$67.50–C$71.47 (−3.7%)	67% 129/192	+11.7% / +15.5%	−75.8% / −76.2%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +9.4%	Exit below C$72.63 (−2.1%)	64% 190/296	+13.3% / +15.5%	−73.3% / −76.2%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Jul 13, 2026 +22.8%	Not on one close	65% 46/71	+4.6% / +15.5%	−80.0% / −76.2%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +2,210.1%	Sell above C$146.93 (+98.0%)	–	+15.5% / +15.5%	−76.2% / −76.2%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 6, 2026 +12.5%	Not on one close	50% 13/26	+1.7% / +15.5%	−42.3% / −76.2%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +9.0%	Exit below C$72.99 (−1.6%)	47% 161/340	+9.4% / +15.5%	−50.7% / −76.2%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below C$73.14 (−1.4%)	58% 237/408	+8.4% / +15.5%	−54.5% / −76.2%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Buy below C$74.19 (0.0%)	55% 1017/1858	−4.7% / +15.5%	−78.5% / −76.2%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +4.8%	Not on one close	62% 60/97	+6.4% / +15.5%	−30.4% / −76.2%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +9.0%	Exit below C$70.25 (−5.3%)	39% 406/1028	+14.4% / +15.5%	−42.6% / −76.2%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +10.8%	Sell above C$68.28 (−8.0%)	59% 79/134	+10.7% / +15.5%	−57.0% / −76.2%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Not on one close	27% 216/807	+3.9% / +15.5%	−83.0% / −76.2%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +6.7%	Enter above C$74.19 (+0.0%)	45% 103/230	+9.9% / +15.5%	−75.1% / −76.2%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jan 15, 2025 +78.3%	Not on one close	59% 22/37	+2.9% / +15.5%	−74.8% / −76.2%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Feb 19, 2026 +31.1%	Not on one close	34% 44/128	+8.3% / +15.5%	−73.5% / −76.2%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +9.0%	Exit below C$69.54 (−6.3%)	30% 226/761	+7.3% / +15.5%	−70.3% / −76.2%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below C$59.24 (−20.2%)	35% 128/361	+5.0% / +15.5%	−77.0% / −76.2%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.3%	Not on one close	34% 212/628	+2.3% / +15.5%	−81.8% / −76.2%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +9.4%	Enter above C$72.76 (−1.9%)	30% 35/115	+4.8% / +15.3%	−88.5% / −76.2%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +10.1%	Not on one close	37% 345/942	+11.8% / +15.5%	−68.8% / −76.2%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Aug 5, 2026 +19.1%	Not on one close	52% 57/109	+4.0% / +15.5%	−75.9% / −76.2%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 +22.8%	Exit below C$58.04 (−21.8%)	44% 42/96	+9.6% / +15.5%	−52.3% / −76.2%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jan 16, 2026 +59.7%	Not on one close	61% 34/56	+3.0% / +15.5%	−34.0% / −76.2%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +16.7%	Buys Oct 30	65% 28/43	+15.3% / +15.5%	−73.9% / −76.2%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +7.4%	Window opens Apr 1	70% 31/44	+17.0% / +15.5%	−73.9% / −76.2%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +28.2%	Window opens Oct 16	65% 28/43	+14.9% / +15.5%	−73.9% / −76.2%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +72.4%	Buys Dec 23	50% 22/44	+5.4% / +15.5%	−8.7% / −76.2%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +7.6%	Buys Oct 29	48% 252/526	+5.8% / +15.5%	−38.9% / −76.2%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +10.8%	Sells Jun 30	27% 3/11	+3.1% / +15.5%	−51.9% / −76.2%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +7.3%	Buys Nov 24	52% 202/386	+3.0% / +15.5%	−12.5% / −76.2%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +135.1%	Not on one close	35% 7/20	+4.1% / +15.5%	−61.0% / −76.2%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1155/2284	+13.0% / +15.5%	−59.9% / −76.2%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +5.9%	Buys Oct 27	48% 168/348	+4.2% / +15.5%	−9.9% / −76.2%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +7.4%	Sells Oct 16	54% 291/541	+15.8% / +15.5%	−56.0% / −76.2%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+15.5%	−76.2%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow0 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Sep 2009

CNQ−51%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Mar 2021

CNQ−73%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jan 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2022

CNQ2%

TSX−14%

Beta0.39Moves about 0.4× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture38%In months the TSX fell, this fell 38% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+58%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high0%
Debt to equity0.45×
Net debt / EBITDA0.9×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover13.7×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Oil & Gas E&P · Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), mining bitumen, light and medium crude oil and NGLs, thermal bitumen, primary heavy crude oil and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$153B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$44.7B	Total sales. The market values it at 3.4× sales.
P/E ratio	13.2×	Buyers pay C$13 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	13.3×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	3.3×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	26.3%	Keeps 26¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+69.5%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+83.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	26.7%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$7.4B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$44.4B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$20.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$2.6B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.45×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	13.7×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$72.90	2% below the close, from 21 analysts (range C$62.00 to C$84.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	3.53%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

CNQ: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Energy & power: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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