Guide · Momentum
Does 13612W Momentum work?
Across 373 stocks, 13612W Momentum cut the worst fall on 85%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 34% and on raw return on 27%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
A fast momentum score that blends the 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns and leans hardest on the most recent. Hold while the score is above zero.
- At each month-end, the score is 12 × the 1-month return + 4 × the 3-month return + 2 × the 6-month return + the 12-month return. Divided by 4, it is the average of the four returns, each scaled to a yearly pace.
- In when the score is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Momentum plays bet that what has risen most over the past months tends to keep outperforming for a while. The family guide
How to use it
- Expect to be wrong more often than right: only 34% of its calls worked. Its results come from the size of the winners, so following it means sitting through strings of small losses.
- It worked best on Real estate (58% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Big tech (17%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
13612W Momentum did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+26% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−21%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13612W Momentum | +26% | −6% | +15% | −21% | +6% | −8% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Real estate | 58% | +0.05 |
| Financials | 50% | +0.02 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 43% | -0.05 |
| Energy & power | 41% | -0.05 |
| Industrials & materials | 33% | -0.08 |
| Software & devices | 32% | -0.08 |
| Metals & mining | 31% | -0.09 |
| Media & telecom | 30% | -0.05 |
| Consumer & retail | 29% | -0.10 |
| Healthcare | 28% | -0.11 |
| Sectors | 25% | -0.08 |
| Semiconductors | 23% | -0.08 |
| Industrials & rentals | 22% | -0.15 |
| Big tech | 17% | -0.12 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
13612W Momentum holds 178 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
No changes of call in the last two weeks.
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.