APP −4.7%, the S&P 500 +0.7% that session; −1.7% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.
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AppLovin shares fall after court denies request against Unity
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Software & devices
AppLovin (APP)
In the Nasdaq-100.
Your signal
Sell7 / 100
Sell: 7 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (16%) scores 16 and lifts it; Off the high (−63% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | APP | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 16% | 16 | 40 | 6.4 |
| Off the high | −63% from its 1-year high | 0 | 30 | 0.0 |
| Trend | −38% vs 200-day | 2 | 30 | 0.6 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for APP
| Factor | APP | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 16% | 16 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | +78% · 31 analysts · capped: below 200-day | 50 | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | 1.6 · buy | 71 | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | 20.9× | 62 | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Forward P/E | 13.3× | 65 | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| PEG | 0.68 | 80 | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Price to sales | 14.1× | 11 | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Price to book | 29.0× | 4 | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Dividend yield | none | 0 | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Earnings growth | +85% | 78 | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Revenue growth | +22% | 66 | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Profit margin | 68% | 98 | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Return on equity | 139% | 99 | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Debt to equity | 1.11× | 26 | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Off the high | −63% from its 1-year high | 0 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | −38% vs 200-day | 2 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | −54% | 4 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 6/10 · high | 40 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on APP- 16 of the 100 plays hold APP right now.
- The trend-following, breakout, momentum, volume and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 38% below its 200-day average and 63% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 3.1× its index and fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
- Analysts' average 12-month target is $483.79, 78% above the close (31 analysts).
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in16 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureHigh6 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.62×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−38%). Higher than on 19% of days since 2022. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about APP now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn APP: right 4 of 8 · Out since Feb 13, 2025Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn APP: right 31 of 77 · Out since Sep 23, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn APP: right 1 of 2 · Out since Aug 31, 2026Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn APP: right 19 of 36 · In since Sep 30, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn APP: right 8 of 13 · In since Jul 28, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn APP: right 6 of 24 · Out since Sep 16, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn APP: right 4 of 11 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
APP, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
What moved APP lately
No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured
APP −5.0%, the S&P 500 −0.3% that session; −10.7% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.
No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on APP was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for APP starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.3%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.9% on average, so most of the move was its own.
APP +7.2%, the S&P 500 +1.5% that session; −0.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.
No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on APP was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for APP starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.5%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved +3.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on APP
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following1 of 30 inBreakouts & channels0 of 15 inMomentum1 of 17 inMean reversion8 of 15 inVolume & money flow2 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on APP went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2021. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −13.6% | Enter above $293.43 (+7.8%) | 33% 42/129 | +47.3% / +24.3% | −75.4% / −91.9% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Jul 17, 2026 −35.9% | Enter above $386.40 (+41.9%) | 42% 5/12 | +85.8% / +34.5% | −49.1% / −87.7% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Enter above $324.51 (+19.2%) | 25% 16/63 | +75.2% / +31.4% | −53.6% / −91.9% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Jan 14, 2026 −55.9% | Not on one close | 22% 7/32 | +72.2% / +44.8% | −36.2% / −81.2% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Jan 23, 2026 −48.1% | Enter above $981.97 (+260.6%) | 56% 5/9 | +75.8% / +26.2% | −53.3% / −90.3% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Jun 12, 2026 −45.2% | Enter above $525.03 (+92.8%) | 50% 5/10 | +78.6% / +46.0% | −53.3% / −82.1% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 −47.2% | Enter above $431.00 (+58.3%) | 50% 2/4 | +83.0% / +34.7% | −57.0% / −87.7% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | OUT | Jul 7, 2026 −48.4% | Enter above $439.86 (+61.5%) | 21% 3/14 | +88.6% / +37.7% | −57.8% / −87.7% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | OUT | Mar 11, 2026 −41.0% | Not on one close | 67% 2/3 | +87.2% / +37.7% | −57.0% / −87.7% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Jul 7, 2026 −48.4% | Not on one close | 21% 3/14 | +72.7% / +39.9% | −57.8% / −84.6% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 +1.5% | Enter above $298.50 (+9.6%) | 36% 12/33 | +56.8% / +29.3% | −50.4% / −91.9% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −13.6% | Enter above $285.72 (+4.9%) | 28% 50/179 | +35.1% / +25.4% | −69.7% / −91.9% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Aug 28, 2026 −14.3% | Exit below $224.47 (−17.6%) | 38% 20/52 | +2.1% / +21.5% | −84.1% / −90.7% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | OUT | Jul 28, 2026 −34.9% | Not on one close | 50% 2/4 | +77.1% / +56.8% | −58.0% / −77.0% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Enter above $788.62 (+189.6%) | 35% 8/23 | +74.9% / +28.8% | −42.2% / −91.9% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Not on one close | 40% 8/20 | +68.7% / +32.6% | −56.5% / −91.9% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Enter above $310.94 (+14.2%) | 43% 16/37 | +57.5% / +33.5% | −62.1% / −91.9% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Jul 16, 2026 −37.3% | Not on one close | 45% 25/56 | +68.6% / +33.5% | −42.5% / −91.9% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $353.07 (+29.7%) | 36% 41/114 | +52.3% / +33.5% | −69.6% / −91.9% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $338.34 (+24.3%) | 39% 18/46 | +52.0% / +29.3% | −50.9% / −91.9% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −13.6% | Enter above $299.17 (+9.9%) | 42% 50/120 | +30.8% / +32.9% | −78.2% / −91.9% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jun 10, 2026 −44.8% | Enter above $453.35 (+66.5%) | 28% 12/43 | +28.9% / +28.8% | −48.5% / −91.9% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Enter above $452.82 (+66.3%) | 32% 11/34 | +65.6% / +30.0% | −52.8% / −91.9% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −11.6% | Enter above $278.95 (+2.5%) | 40% 33/82 | +49.1% / +31.4% | −79.9% / −91.9% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −11.6% | Enter above $576.27 (+111.6%) | 29% 12/42 | +58.2% / +30.0% | −58.3% / −91.9% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −3.2% | Not on one close | 43% 25/58 | −1.2% / +21.5% | −86.3% / −90.7% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Enter above $450.53 (+65.5%) | 29% 10/34 | +64.0% / +31.4% | −46.8% / −91.9% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Jul 15, 2026 −39.9% | Enter above $842.57 (+209.5%) | 54% 7/13 | +71.4% / +31.4% | −56.2% / −91.9% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $276.95 (+1.7%) | 38% 18/48 | +24.5% / +25.7% | −61.9% / −90.3% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Feb 13, 2025 −42.3% | Not on one close | 50% 4/8 | +11.7% / +30.0% | −15.8% / −91.9% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Jun 25, 2026 −38.9% | Enter above $336.94 (+23.7%) | 54% 14/26 | +68.0% / +33.5% | −53.7% / −91.9% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Jun 10, 2026 −44.8% | Enter above $437.79 (+60.8%) | 41% 13/32 | +49.1% / +30.2% | −42.3% / −91.9% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Jun 10, 2026 −44.8% | Enter above $437.79 (+60.8%) | 35% 7/20 | +48.9% / +30.2% | −49.9% / −91.9% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Jan 2, 2026 −56.0% | Not on one close | 32% 7/22 | +50.4% / +31.4% | −33.0% / −91.9% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Jun 18, 2026 −42.0% | Enter above $303.17 (+11.3%) | 32% 9/28 | +2.7% / +33.5% | −66.4% / −91.9% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Jun 9, 2026 −47.7% | Enter above $331.33 (+21.7%) | 31% 12/39 | +29.6% / +25.4% | −32.2% / −91.9% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −11.6% | Enter above $342.38 (+25.7%) | 42% 20/48 | +55.3% / +37.0% | −35.2% / −91.9% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $334.24 (+22.8%) | 39% 18/46 | +61.2% / +30.7% | −60.0% / −91.9% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Enter above $305.02 (+12.0%) | 37% 17/46 | +41.9% / +33.5% | −69.0% / −91.9% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −13.6% | Enter above $337.64 (+24.0%) | 40% 31/77 | +39.4% / +32.6% | −75.6% / −91.9% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Jul 10, 2026 −46.3% | Enter above $303.92 (+11.6%) | 41% 24/59 | +75.2% / +29.3% | −70.1% / −91.9% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Jun 3, 2026 −52.3% | Not on one close | 30% 17/56 | +11.8% / +33.5% | −24.3% / −91.9% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Jun 5, 2026 −51.1% | Not on one close | 46% 11/24 | +19.4% / +25.4% | −26.3% / −91.9% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −13.6% | Enter above $283.76 (+4.2%) | 39% 62/158 | +18.5% / +32.6% | −71.0% / −91.9% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −11.6% | Not on one close | 62% 5/8 | +20.3% / +22.7% | −19.7% / −91.9% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 −31.2% | Enter above $660.86 (+142.7%) | 50% 1/2 | +67.1% / +54.6% | −57.0% / −78.7% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −12.7% | Not on one close | 50% 1/2 | +58.2% / +54.6% | −59.3% / −78.7% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 −31.2% | Enter above $734.83 (+169.9%) | 50% 1/2 | +67.1% / +54.6% | −57.0% / −78.7% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Not on one close | 32% 6/19 | +48.5% / +29.2% | −27.6% / −91.9% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | Nov 28, 2025 −54.6% | Enter above $696.92 (+156.0%) | 33% 2/6 | +38.5% / +43.6% | −39.8% / −83.9% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Jul 10, 2026 −46.3% | Enter above $431.65 (+58.5%) | 24% 5/21 | +68.8% / +24.4% | −52.9% / −91.9% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $285.72 (+4.9%) | 44% 44/100 | +16.6% / +30.0% | −87.2% / −91.9% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −13.6% | Enter above $285.07 (+4.7%) | 36% 58/162 | +37.2% / +30.0% | −72.9% / −91.9% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $402.72 (+47.9%) | 42% 31/74 | +8.1% / +27.7% | −88.0% / −91.9% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +1,501.6% | Exit below $253.66 (−6.8%) | – | +124.6% / +124.6% | −63.4% / −63.4% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −13.6% | Enter above $354.96 (+30.4%) | 27% 42/158 | +8.1% / +33.5% | −49.4% / −91.9% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Oct 6, 2026 −2.3% | Enter above $413.16 (+51.7%) | 36% 25/69 | −11.1% / +31.4% | −89.2% / −91.9% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −38.5% | Enter above $458.29 (+68.3%) | 33% 11/33 | +70.8% / +31.4% | −52.8% / −91.9% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 −47.2% | Enter above $330.60 (+21.4%) | 100% 4/4 | +125.1% / +54.6% | −57.0% / −78.7% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −12.7% | Not on one close | 100% 1/1 | +85.3% / +74.9% | −59.3% / −63.4% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −12.7% | Not on one close | 50% 1/2 | +58.2% / +54.6% | −59.3% / −78.7% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $297.20 (+9.2%) | 33% 26/79 | −1.1% / +21.5% | −85.5% / −90.7% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Aug 7, 2026 −21.5% | Not on one close | 56% 5/9 | −14.2% / +33.4% | −87.7% / −91.9% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Jun 15, 2026 −47.7% | Not on one close | 64% 36/56 | +14.3% / +37.7% | −42.7% / −87.7% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Jun 29, 2026 −45.4% | Not on one close | 54% 39/72 | +30.4% / +37.7% | −42.0% / −87.7% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −6.2% | Sell above $295.96 (+8.7%) | 53% 19/36 | −3.7% / +37.0% | −58.8% / −91.9% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Jun 15, 2026 −47.7% | Not on one close | 55% 18/33 | −24.5% / +35.8% | −88.1% / −91.9% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 −3.4% | Not on one close | 61% 38/62 | −3.5% / +33.5% | −74.2% / −91.9% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Mar 20, 2026 −38.5% | Not on one close | 53% 9/17 | −3.4% / +32.6% | −85.3% / −91.9% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Feb 20, 2025 −39.5% | Sell above $1,063.13 (+290.5%) | 83% 5/6 | +32.3% / +37.7% | −87.7% / −87.7% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jan 29, 2026 −52.2% | Not on one close | 67% 8/12 | +8.8% / +21.5% | −22.5% / −90.7% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −12.7% | Enter above $281.84 (+3.5%) | 55% 36/66 | +8.4% / +25.4% | −75.3% / −91.9% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 −3.4% | Not on one close | 54% 58/107 | −2.3% / +25.4% | −79.0% / −91.9% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy below $272.28 (0.0%) | 59% 282/476 | +25.8% / +31.4% | −58.3% / −91.9% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Mar 4, 2026 −43.6% | Not on one close | 75% 18/24 | +25.6% / +37.7% | −45.1% / −87.7% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $273.97 (+0.6%) | 36% 100/275 | −6.5% / +30.0% | −82.8% / −91.9% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2026 −47.2% | Sell above $296.29 (+8.8%) | 33% 7/21 | −34.1% / +29.3% | −90.6% / −91.9% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −17.9% | Not on one close | 34% 48/140 | +45.4% / +37.0% | −71.6% / −91.9% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Jul 24, 2026 −30.5% | Not on one close | 50% 21/42 | +36.8% / +33.5% | −70.0% / −91.9% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Jul 28, 2026 −34.9% | Not on one close | 62% 8/13 | −0.2% / +33.4% | −87.7% / −91.9% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Aug 22, 2023 +589.7% | Not on one close | 18% 2/11 | +36.2% / +48.7% | −63.4% / −78.7% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 17, 2026 −15.3% | Enter above $287.66 (+5.6%) | 37% 48/129 | +45.5% / +28.7% | −74.7% / −91.9% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −11.7% | Enter above $374.29 (+37.5%) | 39% 29/74 | +58.1% / +37.0% | −67.9% / −91.9% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −12.4% | Enter above $272.28 (+0.0%) | 42% 60/142 | +15.1% / +33.5% | −81.9% / −91.9% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Mar 18, 2026 −38.5% | Not on one close | 50% 3/6 | +96.2% / +55.2% | −57.0% / −78.7% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −16.6% | Buy $271.98–$350.62 (−0.1%) | 37% 71/192 | +7.3% / +29.8% | −81.2% / −91.9% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −16.6% | Not on one close | 25% 6/24 | −31.9% / +32.1% | −92.1% / −91.9% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −6.2% | Not on one close | 46% 12/26 | +65.4% / +31.2% | −35.3% / −91.9% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jul 7, 2026 −48.4% | Not on one close | 62% 5/8 | +11.9% / +31.4% | −9.4% / −91.9% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −39.0% | Buys Oct 30 | 36% 4/11 | −2.3% / +31.4% | −81.6% / −91.9% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 9, 2026 −28.2% | Enter above $276.17 (+1.4%) | 30% 3/10 | +2.6% / +30.0% | −76.9% / −91.9% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 13, 2026 −40.0% | Window opens Oct 16 | 30% 3/10 | −3.1% / +30.0% | −79.5% / −91.9% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 −57.0% | Buys Dec 23 | 30% 3/10 | −0.3% / +31.4% | −16.5% / −91.9% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −3.4% | Buys Oct 29 | 53% 70/132 | +0.8% / +31.4% | −41.0% / −91.9% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −6.2% | Sells Jun 30 | 67% 2/3 | +6.9% / +31.4% | −56.2% / −91.9% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −15.1% | Buys Nov 24 | 49% 51/104 | +8.6% / +31.4% | −11.8% / −91.9% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +2,485.8% | Not on one close | 50% 1/2 | +83.6% / +25.0% | −63.4% / −89.5% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.5% | Sells Oct 16 | 49% 281/573 | +25.5% / +31.4% | −81.2% / −91.9% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −16.6% | Buys Oct 27 | 44% 39/88 | +11.0% / +31.4% | −18.9% / −91.9% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.5% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 68/136 | +9.1% / +31.4% | −70.4% / −91.9% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Apr 15, 2021 | Always in | – | +29.8% | −91.9% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureHigh6 of 10 points
- Market swings3/3
- Past crashes2/2
- Debt1/3
- Run-up0/2
- It moves about 3.1× its index.
- It fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
- It carries 1.6× as much debt as equity.
- Beta3.12Moves about 3.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture220%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 220% as much on average.
- Two-year change+85%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
- From 52-week high−63%
- Debt to equity1.65×
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
- Interest cover20.1×
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
The business behind the price
How to judge these numbersAdvertising Agencies · AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps.
| Size and valuation | ||
| Market cap | $91.5B | What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding. |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $6.8B | Total sales. The market values it at 13.4× sales. |
| P/E ratio | 20.9× | Buyers pay $21 for each $1 of the last year's profit. |
| Forward P/E | 13.3× | Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow. |
| Price to book | 29.0× | Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share. |
| Profit and growth | ||
| Profit margin | 67.8% | Keeps 68¢ of each dollar of sales as profit. |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | +22.4% | The last four quarters' sales against the four before. |
| Earnings growth | +85.1% | Same comparison for profit. |
| Return on equity | 139.4% | Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business. |
| Free cash flow | $3.2B | Cash left after running and investing in the business. |
| Balance sheet | ||
| Total equity | $2.1B | What it owns minus what it owes. |
|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $3.5B | Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest. |
| Cash | $3.1B | Cash and short-term investments on hand. |
| Debt to equity | 1.65× | Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn. |
| Interest cover | 20.1× | Interest is easily paid from profit. |
| Wall Street | ||
| Average analyst target | $483.79 | 78% above the close, from 31 analysts (range $325.00 to $790.00). |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus rating | Buy | Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare. |
P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.
Read more
Reports for Be The Puck Members.
APP: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.MembersSoftware & devices: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.MembersDebt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.MembersIs this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members