Guide · Calendar
Does Pre-Holiday work?
Across 375 stocks, Pre-Holiday cut the worst fall on 100%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 25% and on raw return on 10%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
Own the stock only on the last trading day before each stock-market holiday, a day that has historically paid many times the average daily return.
- In at the close 2 sessions before a regular NYSE holiday, so the stock is held for the last session before the holiday.
- Out at the close of that last session.
- Out on every other day.
Calendar plays bet that some parts of the year and month have been reliably stronger than others. The family guide
How to use it
- It trades often (about 18 switches a year per stock), so costs, spreads and taxes eat into it more than the backtest's 0.05% per switch suggests.
- It sits in cash much of the time (holding on about 4% of days), so judge it on risk-adjusted return rather than on matching a rising market.
- It worked best on Real estate (79% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Semiconductors (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
Pre-Holiday did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+48% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−43%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Holiday | +48% | −15% | +27% | −43% | +18% | −12% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Real estate | 79% | +0.18 |
| Metals & mining | 53% | +0.01 |
| Micro caps | 33% | -0.10 |
| Healthcare | 28% | -0.21 |
| Industrials & materials | 25% | -0.20 |
| Financials | 23% | -0.19 |
| Industrials & rentals | 22% | -0.24 |
| Media & telecom | 20% | -0.27 |
| Energy & power | 17% | -0.22 |
| Sectors | 17% | -0.33 |
| Consumer & retail | 12% | -0.29 |
| Software & devices | 6% | -0.38 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 0% | -0.33 |
| Big tech | 0% | -0.77 |
| Semiconductors | 0% | -0.31 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
Pre-Holiday holds 0 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
No changes of call in the last two weeks.
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.