Market indexes
Nasdaq-100 index (Nasdaq-100)
An index is a scoreboard, not something you can buy directly. Investors hold it through an index fund or ETF, which tracks it closely. The plays read the index itself.
Your signal
Buy76 / 100
Buy: 76 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−2% from its 1-year high) scores 93 and lifts it; Plays in (66%) scores 66 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | Nasdaq-100 | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 66% | 66 | 40 | 26.4 |
| Off the high | −2% from its 1-year high | 93 | 30 | 27.9 |
| Trend | +10% vs 200-day | 72 | 30 | 21.6 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for Nasdaq-100
| Factor | Nasdaq-100 | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 66% | 66 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −2% from its 1-year high | 93 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +10% vs 200-day | 72 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +24% | 59 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 2/10 · low | 80 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
- 66 of the 100 plays hold Nasdaq-100 right now.
- The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 10% above its 200-day average and 2% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.3× its index and fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in66 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.10×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+10%). Higher than on 71% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about Nasdaq-100 now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn Nasdaq-100: right 11 of 24 · Out since Jan 18, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn Nasdaq-100: right 17 of 38 · In since Oct 2, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn Nasdaq-100: right 13 of 22 · In since Apr 28, 2023Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn Nasdaq-100: right 115 of 188 · Out since Aug 3, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn Nasdaq-100: right 14 of 24 · Out since May 19, 2025Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn Nasdaq-100: right 53 of 99 · Out since Jul 15, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn Nasdaq-100: right 21 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
Nasdaq-100, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on Nasdaq-100
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following26 of 30 inBreakouts & channels12 of 15 inMomentum14 of 17 inMean reversion4 of 15 inVolume & money flow6 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on Nasdaq-100 went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below 30,445 (−0.4%) | 26% 167/636 | +6.1% / +14.5% | −28.3% / −53.7% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +21.7% | Exit below 29,268 (−4.3%) | 34% 31/92 | +11.1% / +14.5% | −25.8% / −53.7% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below 29,949 (−2.0%) | 21% 79/372 | +7.6% / +14.5% | −23.6% / −53.7% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 29,861 (−2.3%) | 20% 32/159 | +2.7% / +14.5% | −21.2% / −53.7% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +21.7% | Exit below 28,751 (−5.9%) | 34% 20/58 | +10.4% / +14.5% | −25.3% / −53.7% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +21.7% | Exit below 29,732 (−2.7%) | 30% 32/106 | +7.2% / +14.5% | −26.8% / −53.7% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +11.4% | Exit below 27,828 (−9.0%) | 32% 13/40 | +10.3% / +14.5% | −28.0% / −53.7% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +22.8% | Exit below 27,686 (−9.4%) | 14% 20/140 | +11.0% / +14.5% | −27.8% / −53.7% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jun 24, 2025 +37.8% | Not on one close | 39% 11/28 | +12.3% / +14.5% | −28.0% / −53.7% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +22.8% | Exit below 27,686 (−9.4%) | 15% 17/110 | +10.1% / +14.5% | −21.9% / −53.7% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | IN | Aug 14, 2026 +1.7% | Exit below 28,619 (−6.4%) | 34% 47/138 | +7.1% / +14.5% | −28.2% / −53.7% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below 30,442 (−0.4%) | 23% 192/834 | +2.2% / +14.5% | −39.7% / −53.7% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 29,049 (−5.0%) | 32% 89/282 | +5.0% / +14.5% | −33.4% / −53.7% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | May 7, 2025 +53.9% | Not on one close | 45% 9/20 | +13.0% / +14.5% | −28.0% / −53.7% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 27,743 (−9.2%) | 30% 42/140 | +6.8% / +14.5% | −27.9% / −53.7% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Aug 27, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 28,752 (−5.9%) | 31% 37/118 | +6.9% / +14.5% | −33.4% / −53.7% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Aug 4, 2026 +2.8% | Exit below 30,187 (−1.3%) | 39% 68/174 | +10.2% / +14.5% | −18.8% / −53.7% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −0.1% | Not on one close | 43% 144/332 | +7.6% / +14.5% | −22.5% / −53.7% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Enter above 30,466 (−0.3%) | 37% 191/517 | +7.1% / +14.5% | −35.4% / −53.7% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 28,753 (−5.9%) | 40% 76/190 | +9.6% / +14.5% | −27.7% / −53.7% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,372 (−0.6%) | 37% 202/541 | +4.0% / +14.5% | −39.1% / −53.7% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 6, 2026 +4.1% | Not on one close | 31% 46/149 | +3.6% / +14.5% | −16.2% / −53.7% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 26,836 (−12.2%) | 29% 53/184 | +8.0% / +14.5% | −29.0% / −53.7% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | IN | Aug 7, 2026 +2.9% | Exit below 29,648 (−3.0%) | 45% 60/134 | +10.6% / +14.5% | −29.4% / −53.7% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Not on one close | 32% 72/224 | +7.5% / +14.5% | −30.8% / −53.7% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 35% 96/277 | +5.7% / +14.5% | −44.9% / −53.7% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 27,210 (−11.0%) | 31% 49/158 | +7.9% / +14.5% | −31.8% / −53.7% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Aug 6, 2026 +4.1% | Exit below 21,566 (−29.5%) | 28% 30/108 | +6.5% / +14.5% | −29.7% / −53.7% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below 30,204 (−1.2%) | 38% 82/214 | +7.1% / +14.5% | −21.5% / −53.7% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jan 18, 2024 +80.0% | Not on one close | 46% 11/24 | +2.2% / +14.5% | −3.3% / −53.7% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Aug 13, 2026 +1.6% | Exit below 28,753 (−5.9%) | 42% 56/132 | +8.6% / +14.5% | −31.4% / −53.7% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,275 (−1.0%) | 32% 56/174 | +5.6% / +14.5% | −13.9% / −53.7% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 29,622 (−3.1%) | 35% 39/110 | +7.7% / +14.5% | −15.1% / −53.7% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,071 (−1.6%) | 31% 39/124 | +6.5% / +14.5% | −20.2% / −53.7% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | IN | Aug 4, 2026 +2.8% | Exit below 30,081 (−1.6%) | 38% 43/114 | +6.1% / +14.5% | −24.1% / −53.7% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,469 (−0.3%) | 36% 64/180 | +5.9% / +14.5% | −18.8% / −53.7% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,553 (−0.1%) | 30% 61/200 | +3.0% / +14.5% | −24.8% / −53.7% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 30,208 (−1.2%) | 35% 66/186 | +7.8% / +14.5% | −29.5% / −53.7% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,196 (−1.2%) | 37% 63/170 | +9.9% / +14.5% | −27.2% / −53.7% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Exit below 26,859 (−12.1%) | 45% 17/38 | +11.4% / +14.5% | −39.0% / −53.7% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,355 (−0.7%) | 25% 95/380 | +7.1% / +14.5% | −28.9% / −53.7% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −0.5% | Not on one close | 27% 75/282 | +1.8% / +14.5% | −19.3% / −53.7% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −1.0% | Not on one close | 28% 27/98 | +0.0% / +14.5% | −28.3% / −53.7% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above 31,362 (+2.6%) | 32% 256/795 | +0.7% / +14.5% | −41.1% / −53.7% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,553 (−0.1%) | 35% 15/43 | +1.9% / +14.5% | −14.0% / −53.7% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | May 31, 2023 +114.5% | Exit below 26,813 (−12.3%) | 36% 10/28 | +10.9% / +14.5% | −28.0% / −53.7% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +130.8% | Not on one close | 59% 13/22 | +13.5% / +14.5% | −29.0% / −53.7% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2025 +56.2% | Exit below 29,814 (−2.5%) | 33% 11/33 | +10.3% / +14.9% | −31.7% / −53.7% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Oct 1, 2026 +0.2% | Exit below 29,622 (−3.1%) | 21% 41/198 | +5.9% / +14.5% | −26.6% / −53.7% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +130.8% | Exit below 26,541 (−13.2%) | 60% 6/10 | +12.4% / +14.5% | −28.0% / −53.7% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 30,460 (−0.4%) | 29% 41/140 | +6.8% / +14.5% | −27.8% / −53.7% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 31,300 (+2.4%) | 35% 155/439 | +6.6% / +14.5% | −32.6% / −53.7% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 30,889 (+1.0%) | 29% 229/783 | +3.9% / +14.5% | −39.6% / −53.7% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 29,417 (−3.8%) | 39% 121/312 | +5.3% / +14.5% | −29.8% / −53.7% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Mar 31, 2023 +131.9% | Not on one close | 75% 3/4 | +15.0% / +14.5% | −33.2% / −53.7% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above 31,287 (+2.3%) | 30% 204/690 | +3.5% / +14.5% | −19.5% / −53.7% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −0.5% | Exit below 27,644 (−9.6%) | 35% 100/286 | +3.8% / +14.5% | −32.9% / −53.7% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 26,645 (−12.8%) | 29% 52/178 | +8.0% / +14.5% | −26.1% / −53.7% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below 29,338 (−4.0%) | 33% 22/66 | +10.1% / +14.5% | −35.7% / −53.7% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +130.8% | Not on one close | 50% 9/18 | +13.3% / +15.5% | −29.0% / −53.7% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Aug 31, 2023 +97.2% | Not on one close | 57% 13/23 | +12.5% / +14.5% | −29.0% / −53.7% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 30,508 (−0.2%) | 30% 111/368 | +4.4% / +14.5% | −33.8% / −53.7% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Apr 28, 2026 +13.1% | Not on one close | 60% 24/40 | +6.1% / +14.5% | −49.6% / −53.7% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Buy 27,686–30,470 (−0.3%) | 58% 216/372 | +5.0% / +14.5% | −13.6% / −53.7% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Sell above 31,225 (+2.1%) | 65% 290/449 | +7.9% / +14.5% | −19.0% / −53.7% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 3, 2026 +6.2% | Buy below 29,553 (−3.3%) | 61% 115/188 | +4.7% / +14.5% | −43.1% / −53.7% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 +3.7% | Not on one close | 61% 91/150 | +6.5% / +14.5% | −48.3% / −53.7% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Not on one close | 61% 179/294 | +6.5% / +14.5% | −52.0% / −53.7% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Jul 27, 2026 +9.0% | Not on one close | 70% 40/57 | +5.8% / +14.5% | −47.1% / −53.7% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +1,849.2% | Sell above 66,917 (+118.9%) | – | +14.5% / +14.5% | −53.7% / −53.7% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jun 11, 2026 +3.8% | Not on one close | 57% 8/14 | +3.0% / +14.5% | −4.6% / −53.7% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Not on one close | 49% 143/294 | +5.5% / +14.5% | −47.1% / −53.7% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −1.0% | Not on one close | 60% 250/414 | +6.9% / +14.5% | −44.6% / −53.7% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Buy below 30,569 (0.0%) | 59% 1013/1724 | +9.9% / +14.5% | −17.9% / −53.7% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Aug 4, 2026 +2.8% | Not on one close | 58% 63/108 | +6.8% / +14.5% | −21.8% / −53.7% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above 31,798 (+4.0%) | 36% 380/1054 | +3.9% / +14.5% | −44.8% / −53.7% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 +3.8% | Buy below 31,022 (+1.5%) | 58% 71/122 | +6.8% / +14.5% | −40.3% / −53.7% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Not on one close | 27% 216/808 | +4.2% / +14.5% | −57.5% / −53.7% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Not on one close | 38% 62/164 | +7.0% / +14.5% | −45.4% / −53.7% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | May 19, 2025 +42.5% | Not on one close | 58% 14/24 | +5.9% / +14.5% | −49.6% / −53.7% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Jun 8, 2023 +111.0% | Not on one close | 26% 13/50 | +12.3% / +14.5% | −32.9% / −53.7% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 30,605 (+0.1%) | 25% 229/909 | +1.8% / +14.5% | −47.2% / −53.7% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 29,582 (−3.2%) | 36% 116/324 | +8.0% / +14.5% | −27.8% / −53.7% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below 30,569 (0.0%) | 31% 187/594 | +3.2% / +14.5% | −47.5% / −53.7% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Apr 23, 2025 +63.5% | Not on one close | 39% 24/62 | +13.9% / +14.5% | −30.0% / −53.7% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy 30,484–30,856 (−0.3%) | 36% 353/968 | +5.7% / +14.5% | −46.5% / −53.7% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Jul 15, 2026 +3.6% | Not on one close | 54% 53/99 | +3.7% / +14.5% | −49.8% / −53.7% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Jan 20, 2026 +22.3% | Enter above 30,947 (+1.2%) | 20% 19/94 | −0.3% / +14.5% | −45.8% / −53.7% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jan 9, 2023 +175.2% | Not on one close | 33% 18/54 | +1.3% / +14.5% | −19.8% / −53.7% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +11.4% | Buys Oct 30 | 49% 21/43 | +7.2% / +14.5% | −33.1% / −53.7% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | May 15, 2026 +5.0% | Enter above 31,642 (+3.5%) | 51% 22/43 | +7.2% / +14.5% | −39.5% / −53.7% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 19, 2026 +6.1% | Window opens Oct 16 | 51% 22/43 | +8.5% / +14.5% | −31.2% / −53.7% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +20.3% | Buys Dec 23 | 34% 15/44 | +1.9% / +14.5% | −8.4% / −53.7% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −1.6% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 247/526 | +3.7% / +14.5% | −24.4% / −53.7% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +0.5% | Sells Jun 30 | 45% 5/11 | +4.8% / +14.5% | −23.4% / −53.7% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +3.5% | Buys Nov 24 | 50% 199/400 | +2.4% / +14.5% | −6.2% / −53.7% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +179.4% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +9.4% / +14.5% | −30.4% / −53.7% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 1150/2284 | +6.6% / +14.5% | −40.4% / −53.7% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +5.6% | Buys Oct 27 | 47% 162/348 | +3.8% / +14.5% | −5.3% / −53.7% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 270/541 | +6.3% / +14.5% | −38.5% / −53.7% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +14.5% | −53.7% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow2 of 10 points
- Market swings1/3
- Past crashes1/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
- It moves about 1.3× its index.
- It fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
- Beta1.29Moves about 1.3× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture109%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 109% as much on average.
- Two-year change+51%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
- From 52-week high−2%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
Who would feel a crash first
All 99 Nasdaq-100 companies, ranked by crash exposure.
| Stock | Exposure | Beta | 2-yr change | Plays in | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLBRocket Lab | Very high 10/10 | 2.51 | +562% | 26 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 562% in |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | Very high 8/10 | 1.90 | +226% | 62 of 100 in | moves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 226% in |
| LITELumentum | Very high 8/10 | 2.32 | +1,348% | 55 of 100 in | moves about 2.3× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 1348% in |
| AMDAMD | Very high 7/10 | 2.04 | +261% | 57 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 261% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| INTCIntel | Very high 7/10 | 2.00 | +336% | 34 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.4×; is up 336% in t |
| MSTRStrategy (MicroStrategy) | Very high 7/10 | 1.50 | −28% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| MUMicron | Very high 7/10 | 2.52 | +796% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 796% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| APPAppLovin | High 6/10 | 3.12 | +85% | 16 of 100 in | moves about 3.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity |
| AXONAxon Enterprise | High 6/10 | 1.52 | −5% | 20 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 1.2× |
| CRWVCoreWeave | High 6/10 | 1.71 | – | 11 of 98 in | moves about 1.7× its index; carries 15.5× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 0.0× |
| LRCXLam Research | High 6/10 | 2.04 | +269% | 43 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 269% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| PLTRPalantir | High 6/10 | 2.48 | +380% | 68 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 380% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| SBUXStarbucks | High 6/10 | 1.13 | +1% | 28 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| STXSeagate Technology | High 6/10 | 1.99 | +601% | 29 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; is up 601% in two year |
| TERTeradyne | High 6/10 | 1.70 | +190% | 45 of 100 in | moves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 190% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| WDCWestern Digital | High 6/10 | 2.19 | +680% | 28 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 680% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| ASMLASML Holding | High 5/10 | 1.52 | +108% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 108% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| BKNGBooking Holdings | High 5/10 | 1.14 | −7% | 23 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology | High 5/10 | 2.00 | +0% | 31 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| MRVLMarvell Technology | High 5/10 | 2.20 | +265% | 63 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 265% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| NBISNebius Group | High 5/10 | 2.73 | – | 30 of 98 in | moves about 2.7× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.2× |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors | High 5/10 | 1.53 | −1% | 23 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| SHOPShopify | High 5/10 | 2.63 | +119% | 65 of 100 in | moves about 2.6× its index; fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 119% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| TSLATesla | High 5/10 | 1.82 | +72% | 45 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ALABAstera Labs | Moderate 4/10 | 2.78 | +388% | 46 of 99 in | moves about 2.8× its index; is up 388% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals | Moderate 4/10 | 0.96 | −21% | 13 of 100 in | carries 3.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| AMATApplied Materials | Moderate 4/10 | 1.69 | +130% | 42 of 100 in | moves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| AVGOBroadcom | Moderate 4/10 | 2.49 | +100% | 36 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 100% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| CEGConstellation Energy | Moderate 4/10 | 1.51 | +12% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity |
| DASHDoorDash | Moderate 4/10 | 1.77 | +29% | 41 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| DDOGDatadog | Moderate 4/10 | 1.39 | +118% | 68 of 100 in | moves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| KLACKLA | Moderate 4/10 | 1.86 | +132% | 42 of 100 in | moves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 132% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| MARMarriott | Moderate 4/10 | 0.96 | +44% | 67 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| METAMeta Platforms | Moderate 4/10 | 1.47 | +30% | 57 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| NVDANvidia | Moderate 4/10 | 2.15 | +70% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 2.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ABNBAirbnb | Moderate 3/10 | 1.29 | +23% | 48 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index; fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes |
| AMGNAmgen | Moderate 3/10 | 0.41 | +34% | 62 of 100 in | carries 6.6× as much debt as equity |
| AMZNAmazon | Moderate 3/10 | 1.47 | +37% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ARMArm Holdings | Moderate 3/10 | 2.82 | +69% | 30 of 100 in | moves about 2.8× its index |
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical | Moderate 3/10 | 1.22 | −13% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes |
| MELIMercadoLibre | Moderate 3/10 | 1.02 | −10% | 48 of 100 in | fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 2.0× as much debt as equity |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems | Moderate 3/10 | 2.20 | +43% | 48 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive | Moderate 3/10 | 0.21 | +9% | 34 of 100 in | owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| PYPLPayPal | Moderate 3/10 | 1.13 | −29% | 56 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| QCOMQualcomm | Moderate 3/10 | 1.79 | +9% | 32 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index |
| SNPSSynopsys | Moderate 3/10 | 1.61 | −8% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index |
| SPCXSpaceX | Moderate 3/10 | – | – | 35 of 59 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive | Moderate 3/10 | 0.86 | +29% | 22 of 100 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| WDAYWorkday | Moderate 3/10 | 1.08 | −23% | 41 of 100 in | fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ADBEAdobe | Low 2/10 | 1.05 | −52% | 25 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ADIAnalog Devices | Low 2/10 | 1.56 | +83% | 64 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index |
| ADSKAutodesk | Low 2/10 | 1.05 | −18% | 48 of 100 in | fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power | Low 2/10 | −0.03 | +37% | 51 of 100 in | carries 1.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.8× |
| BKRBaker Hughes | Low 2/10 | 0.64 | +55% | 30 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners | Low 2/10 | 0.41 | +43% | 57 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems | Low 2/10 | 1.49 | +18% | 52 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| EXCExelon | Low 2/10 | −0.09 | +15% | 38 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.5× |
| FERFerrovial | Low 2/10 | 0.70 | +28% | 23 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.4× |
| GEHCGE HealthCare | Low 2/10 | 1.25 | −24% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index |
| GOOGLAlphabet | Low 2/10 | 1.21 | +118% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| HONAHoneywell Aerospace | Low 2/10 | – | – | 21 of 59 in | carries 1.9× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.9× |
| IDXXIDEXX Laboratories | Low 2/10 | 1.01 | +9% | 31 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| INTUIntuit | Low 2/10 | 0.68 | −50% | 33 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper | Low 2/10 | 0.18 | −5% | 67 of 100 in | |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | Low 2/10 | 1.30 | +113% | 66 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index; is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| SNDKSandisk | Low 2/10 | 2.54 | – | 28 of 98 in | moves about 2.5× its index |
| XELXcel Energy | Low 2/10 | 0.11 | +28% | 45 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| CMCSAComcast | Low 1/10 | 0.50 | −41% | 21 of 100 in | fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| CPRTCopart | Low 1/10 | 0.89 | −53% | 16 of 100 in | |
| CSCOCisco | Low 1/10 | 0.81 | +122% | 67 of 100 in | is up 122% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| DXCMDexCom | Low 1/10 | 1.06 | +23% | 44 of 100 in | fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FANGDiamondback Energy | Low 1/10 | 0.31 | +7% | 51 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FTNTFortinet | Low 1/10 | 1.03 | +130% | 74 of 100 in | is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| HONHoneywell | Low 1/10 | 0.76 | +1% | 31 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| MSFTMicrosoft | Low 1/10 | 1.14 | +33% | 65 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index |
| NFLXNetflix | Low 1/10 | 1.07 | −3% | 24 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line | Low 1/10 | 0.99 | −7% | 43 of 100 in | |
| PDDPDD Holdings | Low 1/10 | 0.81 | −43% | 45 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| PEPPepsiCo | Low 1/10 | 0.14 | −21% | 28 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| ROSTRoss Stores | Low 1/10 | 0.66 | +61% | 29 of 100 in | fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| TMUST-Mobile US | Low 1/10 | 0.35 | −25% | 19 of 100 in | carries 2.0× as much debt as equity |
| TXNTexas Instruments | Low 1/10 | 1.26 | +48% | 65 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index |
| AAPLApple | Low 0/10 | 1.04 | +51% | 66 of 100 in | |
| ADPADP | Low 0/10 | 0.52 | +1% | 59 of 100 in | |
| COSTCostco | Low 0/10 | 0.48 | +9% | 54 of 100 in | |
| CSXCSX | Low 0/10 | 0.64 | +41% | 46 of 100 in | |
| CTASCintas | Low 0/10 | 0.70 | +1% | 62 of 100 in | |
| FASTFastenal | Low 0/10 | 0.61 | +40% | 63 of 100 in | |
| GILDGilead Sciences | Low 0/10 | 0.34 | +84% | 56 of 100 in | |
| LINLinde | Low 0/10 | 0.35 | +7% | 59 of 100 in | |
| MDLZMondelez | Low 0/10 | 0.06 | −7% | 46 of 100 in | |
| MNSTMonster Beverage | Low 0/10 | 0.40 | +69% | 43 of 100 in | |
| PAYXPaychex | Low 0/10 | 0.46 | −18% | 37 of 100 in | |
| PCARPaccar | Low 0/10 | 0.75 | +8% | 29 of 100 in | |
| REGNRegeneron | Low 0/10 | 0.63 | −25% | 37 of 100 in | |
| ROPRoper Technologies | Low 0/10 | 0.55 | −32% | 37 of 100 in | |
| TRIThomson Reuters | Low 0/10 | 0.54 | −34% | 52 of 100 in | |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals | Low 0/10 | 0.58 | +1% | 33 of 100 in | |
| WMTWalmart | Low 0/10 | 0.55 | +43% | 55 of 100 in |
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.