Big tech

Microsoft (MSFT)

$543.45 +0.4% on the day·+6.6% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy84 / 100

Buy: 84 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 100 and lifts it; Plays in (65%) scores 65 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	MSFT	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	65%	65	40	26.0
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	30	30.0
Trend	+25% vs 200-day	94	30	28.2

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for MSFT

Factor	MSFT	Points	What it is
Plays in	65%	65	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+8% · 53 analysts	41	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.3 · strong buy	83	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	30.3×	39	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	23.0×	23	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.62	43	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	12.2×	13	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	9.1×	19	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	0.7%	19	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	+32%	61	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+18%	59	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	40%	92	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	30%	83	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.09×	83	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+25% vs 200-day	94	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+7%	40	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on MSFT

65 of the 100 plays hold MSFT right now.
The trend-following and breakout plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 25% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.1× its index.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $589.60, 8% above the close (53 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in65 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.25×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+25%). Higher than on 98% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MSFT now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn MSFT: right 17 of 56 · Out since Oct 5, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn MSFT: right 19 of 62 · In since Jul 30, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn MSFT: right 12 of 27 · Out since Apr 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn MSFT: right 113 of 178 · Out since Apr 13, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn MSFT: right 16 of 28 · Out since Jul 17, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn MSFT: right 49 of 94 · Out since Dec 31, 2025 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn MSFT: right 17 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

MSFT, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved MSFT lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 9+1.8% against the S&P 5000.8× a normal day

MSFT +2.4%, the S&P 500 +0.6% that session.

HeadlineThe Motley Fool · Oct 8, 8:10 pm ET
Huge Update for Microsoft Stock Investors!

Fri Sep 25+3.2% against the S&P 5001.3× a normal day

MSFT +3.7%, the S&P 500 +0.5% that session; +3.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MSFT was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MSFT starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +0.5%. The 5 other Big tech stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 14+2.5% against the S&P 5000.9× a normal day

MSFT +2.0%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; −0.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MSFT was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MSFT starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 5 other Big tech stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 4.72.

Over its last 12 reports, MSFT's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±4.4% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 5 times.
MSFT after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 23 of 35 times (median +2.4%).
MSFT after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 2 of 3 times (median −0.1%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on MSFT

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following26 of 30 in Breakouts & channels15 of 15 in Momentum10 of 17 in Mean reversion4 of 15 in Volume & money flow6 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on MSFT went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +9.2%	Exit below $517.74 (−4.7%)	25% 163/644	+2.6% / +16.9%	−62.7% / −57.9%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Exit below $453.53 (−16.5%)	23% 25/108	+11.1% / +16.9%	−32.8% / −57.9%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +20.7%	Exit below $495.24 (−8.9%)	24% 83/352	+6.6% / +16.9%	−36.9% / −57.9%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $503.10 (−7.4%)	18% 37/207	+3.4% / +16.9%	−35.8% / −57.9%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 21, 2026 +12.5%	Exit below $436.94 (−19.6%)	25% 15/60	+10.0% / +16.9%	−29.4% / −57.9%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $486.92 (−10.4%)	28% 22/78	+9.9% / +16.9%	−35.2% / −57.9%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Exit below $433.25 (−20.3%)	22% 10/46	+12.1% / +16.9%	−39.6% / −57.9%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +20.7%	Exit below $433.03 (−20.3%)	11% 19/166	+10.6% / +16.9%	−40.3% / −57.9%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	33% 10/30	+11.4% / +16.9%	−33.5% / −57.9%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +10.8%	Exit below $433.03 (−20.3%)	12% 16/136	+8.7% / +16.9%	−40.3% / −57.9%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Exit below $509.10 (−6.3%)	42% 49/118	+12.5% / +16.9%	−35.0% / −57.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +8.3%	Exit below $527.17 (−3.0%)	23% 191/819	+0.7% / +16.9%	−52.0% / −57.9%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +8.5%	Enter above $550.12 (+1.2%)	35% 95/269	+5.4% / +16.9%	−36.2% / −57.9%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 10, 2026 +7.6%	Not on one close	25% 6/24	+13.0% / +17.4%	−33.0% / −57.9%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Exit below $393.27 (−27.6%)	30% 36/122	+10.3% / +16.9%	−26.5% / −57.9%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +20.7%	Exit below $433.16 (−20.3%)	24% 31/130	+8.9% / +16.9%	−29.9% / −57.9%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Jul 15, 2026 +37.6%	Exit below $513.00 (−5.6%)	34% 55/160	+7.9% / +16.9%	−34.1% / −57.9%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +11.7%	Not on one close	39% 119/306	+6.1% / +16.9%	−26.9% / −57.9%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.3%	Exit below $447.31 (−17.7%)	36% 204/566	+6.4% / +16.9%	−60.4% / −57.9%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +38.3%	Exit below $486.00 (−10.6%)	41% 80/196	+9.9% / +16.9%	−33.0% / −57.9%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $526.05 (−3.2%)	36% 184/505	+3.6% / +16.9%	−50.0% / −57.9%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Aug 6, 2026 +8.9%	Exit below $508.06 (−6.5%)	32% 47/148	+8.3% / +16.9%	−20.1% / −57.9%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +20.7%	Exit below $382.21 (−29.7%)	29% 51/174	+9.9% / +16.9%	−31.8% / −57.9%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Jul 2, 2026 +39.4%	Exit below $513.67 (−5.5%)	32% 58/182	+6.2% / +16.9%	−64.4% / −57.9%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Jul 16, 2026 +35.7%	Not on one close	31% 66/214	+8.7% / +16.9%	−39.7% / −57.9%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +10.0%	Not on one close	38% 95/251	+2.5% / +16.9%	−53.8% / −57.9%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +20.7%	Exit below $385.58 (−29.0%)	32% 46/146	+11.5% / +16.9%	−29.1% / −57.9%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Not on one close	28% 29/102	+10.0% / +16.9%	−31.8% / −57.9%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +8.8%	Not on one close	34% 72/212	+5.2% / +16.9%	−28.2% / −57.9%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +3.5%	Not on one close	30% 17/56	+0.9% / +16.9%	−19.6% / −57.9%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Jul 16, 2026 +35.7%	Exit below $487.23 (−10.3%)	41% 48/118	+10.9% / +16.9%	−31.5% / −57.9%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 3, 2026 +11.7%	Exit below $510.31 (−6.1%)	36% 53/148	+8.4% / +16.9%	−29.7% / −57.9%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 3, 2026 +11.7%	Exit below $487.23 (−10.3%)	34% 32/94	+8.1% / +16.9%	−20.5% / −57.9%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 6, 2026 +8.9%	Exit below $504.75 (−7.1%)	39% 37/94	+9.4% / +16.9%	−23.5% / −57.9%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Jul 20, 2026 +35.3%	Exit below $486.00 (−10.6%)	31% 38/121	+4.8% / +16.9%	−31.3% / −57.9%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.4%	Exit below $518.57 (−4.6%)	36% 54/148	+6.3% / +16.9%	−29.0% / −57.9%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.3%	Exit below $515.46 (−5.1%)	32% 68/212	+5.9% / +16.9%	−34.3% / −57.9%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Jul 16, 2026 +35.7%	Exit below $516.41 (−5.0%)	40% 69/174	+11.3% / +16.9%	−26.5% / −57.9%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 +39.3%	Exit below $509.62 (−6.2%)	35% 61/172	+8.5% / +16.9%	−40.9% / −57.9%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +20.7%	Exit below $472.78 (−13.0%)	31% 19/62	+7.9% / +16.9%	−44.9% / −57.9%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Aug 24, 2026 +11.5%	Exit below $517.96 (−4.7%)	27% 92/342	+6.6% / +16.9%	−46.2% / −57.9%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $542.42 (−0.2%)	23% 55/237	−0.4% / +16.9%	−24.9% / −57.9%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.0%	Exit below $357.93 (−34.1%)	30% 46/153	+0.1% / +16.9%	−36.0% / −57.9%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.4%	Exit below $528.78 (−2.7%)	33% 230/689	+3.6% / +16.9%	−62.5% / −57.9%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.3%	Exit below $515.46 (−5.1%)	32% 17/53	+4.6% / +16.9%	−12.6% / −57.9%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	May 29, 2026 +20.9%	Enter above $532.55 (−2.0%)	24% 7/29	+8.2% / +17.0%	−49.1% / −57.9%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +33.8%	Not on one close	44% 12/27	+9.5% / +17.0%	−41.2% / −57.9%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Dec 31, 2025 +13.1%	Enter above $592.15 (+9.0%)	20% 7/35	+5.8% / +17.0%	−48.3% / −57.9%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 21, 2026 +36.9%	Not on one close	20% 31/155	+7.5% / +16.9%	−32.3% / −57.9%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +6.0%	Exit below $461.93 (−15.0%)	44% 8/18	+10.5% / +16.9%	−33.1% / −57.9%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Exit below $462.98 (−14.8%)	35% 41/116	+10.3% / +16.9%	−28.4% / −57.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +6.0%	Exit below $510.44 (−6.1%)	33% 144/442	+2.6% / +16.9%	−49.7% / −57.9%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +9.2%	Exit below $525.01 (−3.4%)	30% 237/787	+1.9% / +16.9%	−68.7% / −57.9%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below $401.64 (−26.1%)	37% 120/326	+2.4% / +16.9%	−52.8% / −57.9%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Enter above $494.70 (−9.0%)	80% 8/10	+17.3% / +17.5%	−34.5% / −57.9%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.3%	Exit below $533.65 (−1.8%)	29% 192/671	+3.8% / +16.9%	−34.7% / −57.9%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +4.0%	Exit below $432.55 (−20.4%)	37% 103/280	+5.4% / +16.9%	−47.8% / −57.9%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +20.7%	Exit below $377.81 (−30.5%)	29% 49/168	+10.3% / +16.9%	−28.3% / −57.9%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Exit below $488.54 (−10.1%)	32% 26/82	+12.3% / +17.0%	−39.6% / −57.9%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +33.8%	Not on one close	41% 7/17	+10.7% / +17.9%	−41.2% / −57.9%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +33.8%	Not on one close	50% 15/30	+10.9% / +17.0%	−41.2% / −57.9%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below $518.63 (−4.6%)	32% 122/378	+1.4% / +16.9%	−60.9% / −57.9%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 +13.3%	Not on one close	63% 24/38	+7.0% / +16.9%	−45.2% / −57.9%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 +12.5%	Buy $433.03–$504.38 (−7.2%)	59% 183/311	+4.8% / +16.9%	−21.2% / −57.9%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +5.3%	Buy $433.03–$522.61 (−3.8%)	62% 249/403	+8.3% / +16.9%	−30.4% / −57.9%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Apr 13, 2026 +42.0%	Buy below $480.81 (−11.5%)	63% 113/178	+10.5% / +16.9%	−21.6% / −57.9%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Jul 17, 2026 +38.3%	Not on one close	62% 92/148	+5.3% / +16.9%	−45.4% / −57.9%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	58% 159/276	+4.0% / +16.9%	−48.4% / −57.9%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Aug 7, 2026 +8.9%	Not on one close	67% 43/64	+8.3% / +16.9%	−54.8% / −57.9%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +2,879.0%	Sell above $1,046.63 (+92.6%)	–	+16.9% / +16.9%	−57.9% / −57.9%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2020 +170.5%	Buy below $464.29 (−14.6%)	50% 5/10	+2.2% / +16.9%	−7.8% / −57.9%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +7.5%	Exit below $524.40 (−3.5%)	46% 151/325	+3.8% / +16.9%	−52.3% / −57.9%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	53% 254/476	+10.8% / +16.9%	−36.3% / −57.9%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above $543.44 (0.0%)	58% 1024/1753	+13.4% / +16.9%	−21.9% / −57.9%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Mar 5, 2026 +32.9%	Not on one close	50% 44/88	+4.2% / +16.9%	−24.5% / −57.9%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.4%	Exit below $546.42 (+0.5%)	37% 403/1079	+2.5% / +16.9%	−54.1% / −57.9%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +17.2%	Buy below $523.24 (−3.7%)	60% 76/126	+10.2% / +16.9%	−43.4% / −57.9%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.0%	Not on one close	25% 196/785	+3.0% / +16.9%	−53.4% / −57.9%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	40% 82/203	+8.5% / +16.9%	−33.1% / −57.9%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jul 17, 2026 +38.3%	Not on one close	57% 16/28	+5.0% / +16.9%	−45.2% / −57.9%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.4%	Exit below $541.99 (−0.3%)	35% 31/88	+12.7% / +16.9%	−55.1% / −57.9%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +8.3%	Exit below $524.38 (−3.5%)	27% 208/760	+2.7% / +16.9%	−58.0% / −57.9%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.3%	Exit below $415.40 (−23.6%)	33% 114/348	+4.4% / +16.9%	−51.6% / −57.9%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +5.0%	Not on one close	31% 189/604	−0.6% / +16.9%	−68.0% / −57.9%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +10.5%	Not on one close	37% 39/106	+12.1% / +17.0%	−32.2% / −57.9%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.8%	Not on one close	34% 328/959	+1.5% / +16.9%	−60.3% / −57.9%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Dec 31, 2025 +13.1%	Not on one close	52% 49/94	+7.8% / +16.9%	−46.4% / −57.9%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jun 9, 2026 +35.0%	Not on one close	28% 30/106	+2.0% / +16.9%	−36.3% / −57.9%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2025 +7.6%	Not on one close	35% 16/46	+0.6% / +16.9%	−30.8% / −57.9%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +33.8%	Buys Oct 30	40% 17/43	+6.3% / +16.9%	−49.0% / −57.9%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +33.8%	Not on one close	47% 20/43	+6.7% / +16.9%	−50.4% / −57.9%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 4, 2026 +31.9%	Window opens Oct 16	51% 22/43	+7.3% / +16.9%	−51.4% / −57.9%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +15.7%	Buys Dec 23	25% 11/44	+1.2% / +16.9%	−9.5% / −57.9%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +3.5%	Buys Oct 29	44% 233/526	+1.2% / +16.9%	−34.3% / −57.9%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +6.0%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+4.9% / +16.9%	−24.9% / −57.9%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +8.8%	Buys Nov 24	49% 195/400	+1.5% / +16.9%	−15.3% / −57.9%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +133.5%	Not on one close	30% 6/20	+10.6% / +16.9%	−37.6% / −57.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.4%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1162/2284	+9.4% / +16.9%	−47.4% / −57.9%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +10.8%	Buys Oct 27	46% 160/348	+2.6% / +16.9%	−9.2% / −57.9%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.0%	Sells Oct 16	50% 273/541	+7.6% / +16.9%	−41.6% / −57.9%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+16.9%	−57.9%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.1× its index.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Nov 2009

MSFT−48%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jun 2020

MSFT−28%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high May 2023

MSFT−32%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.14Moves about 1.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture109%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 109% as much on average.
Two-year change+33%
From 52-week high0%
Debt to equity0.29×
Net debt / EBITDA0.3×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover55.4×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Software - Infrastructure · Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. Its products include operating systems, server applications, business solution applications, software development tools, desktop and server management tools, and video games; and devices, such as PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other intelligent devices, and related accessories.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$4.0T	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$332B	Total sales. The market values it at 12.2× sales.
P/E ratio	30.3×	Buyers pay $30 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	23.0×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	9.1×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	40.3%	Keeps 40¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+17.8%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+31.6%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	30.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$16.5B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$442B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$129B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$76.8B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.29×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	55.4×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$589.60	8% above the close, from 53 analysts (range $440.00 to $870.00).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.67%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

MSFT: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Big tech: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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