Volume & money flow · daily rule · Big tech
Money Flow Index on Microsoft
MSFT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding MSFT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.0% | +16.9% | +11.2% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +188% | +2,869% | +70% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −45.2% | −57.9% | −33.9% | −37.1% |
| Volatility | 17.7% | 27.4% | 20.9% | 28.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.26 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| Time invested | 34% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 16 of 28 closed calls (57%). In calls averaged +7.5%; out calls saw MSFT move +32.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | MSFT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | OUT | $393.08 | now | +38.3% | open |
| Jun 26, 2026 | IN | $372.27 | Jul 17, 2026 | +5.6% | ✓ right |
| Apr 20, 2026 | OUT | $416.38 | Jun 26, 2026 | −10.6% | ✓ right |
| Sep 3, 2025 | IN | $501.23 | Apr 20, 2026 | −16.9% | ✕ wrong |
| May 16, 2025 | OUT | $449.82 | Sep 3, 2025 | +11.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 14, 2025 | IN | $410.02 | May 16, 2025 | +9.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 21, 2023 | OUT | $365.27 | Jan 14, 2025 | +12.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 9, 2022 | IN | $255.94 | Nov 21, 2023 | +42.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2022 | OUT | $297.05 | Sep 9, 2022 | −13.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 19, 2022 | IN | $291.65 | Mar 31, 2022 | +1.9% | ✓ right |
| Nov 1, 2021 | OUT | $316.11 | Jan 19, 2022 | −7.7% | ✓ right |
| Sep 14, 2021 | IN | $287.72 | Nov 1, 2021 | +9.9% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 29 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.