Semiconductors

Texas Instruments (TXN)

$287.85 +2.2% on the day·+68.6% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy68 / 100

Buy: 68 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+15% vs 200-day) scores 82 and lifts it; Off the high (−13% from its 1-year high) scores 57 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	TXN	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	65%	65	40	26.0
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	57	30	17.1
Trend	+15% vs 200-day	82	30	24.6

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for TXN

Factor	TXN	Points	What it is
Plays in	65%	65	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+13% · 31 analysts	47	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.1 · buy	44	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	43.7×	22	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	27.0×	15	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.97	68	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	13.5×	12	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	14.6×	11	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	2.0%	50	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	+20%	50	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+17%	56	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	31%	84	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	34%	88	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.78×	39	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	57	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+15% vs 200-day	82	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+69%	84	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on TXN

65 of the 100 plays hold TXN right now.
The trend-following, breakout, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 15% above its 200-day average and 13% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.3× its index.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $324.71, 13% above the close (31 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in65 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.15×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+15%). Higher than on 77% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TXN now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn TXN: right 5 of 24 · Out since Jun 5, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn TXN: right 29 of 80 · In since Oct 2, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn TXN: right 21 of 45 · In since Feb 27, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn TXN: right 128 of 194 · Out since Sep 11, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn TXN: right 26 of 39 · Out since Oct 8, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn TXN: right 63 of 114 · Out since Oct 9, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn TXN: right 25 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

TXN, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved TXN lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 2+3.7% against the S&P 5002.1× a normal day

TXN +4.4%, the S&P 500 +0.7% that session; +1.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

HeadlineTradingKey · Oct 2, 11:15 am ET
Texas Instruments Inc Stock (TXN) Moved Up by 4.43% on Oct 2: Key Drivers Unveiled
HeadlineStockStory · Oct 2, 10:58 am ET
MACOM, Texas Instruments, Semtech, Amkor, and Teradyne Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 2, 4:30 pm ETafter that close
Texas Instruments Inc. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 21, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.41.

Over its last 12 reports, TXN's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±5.0% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
TXN after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 18 of 36 times (median +0.1%).
TXN after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 4 of 7 times (median −2.5%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on TXN

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following26 of 30 in Breakouts & channels13 of 15 in Momentum12 of 17 in Mean reversion3 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on TXN went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below $280.63 (−2.5%)	24% 175/736	−1.1% / +14.6%	−71.4% / −63.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Exit below $272.39 (−5.4%)	23% 24/106	+6.9% / +14.6%	−54.6% / −63.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.3%	Exit below $276.84 (−3.8%)	22% 86/388	+5.3% / +14.6%	−60.0% / −63.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $272.14 (−5.5%)	15% 35/239	−0.1% / +14.8%	−46.7% / −63.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +7.1%	Exit below $273.71 (−4.9%)	20% 18/89	+5.9% / +14.6%	−52.5% / −63.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +7.1%	Exit below $273.71 (−4.9%)	31% 31/99	+9.4% / +14.6%	−30.2% / −63.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +34.9%	Exit below $256.79 (−10.8%)	18% 9/49	+8.0% / +14.6%	−43.8% / −63.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +49.8%	Exit below $251.59 (−12.6%)	11% 22/193	+7.5% / +14.6%	−45.8% / −63.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Feb 2, 2026 +29.2%	Not on one close	35% 11/31	+8.9% / +14.6%	−48.1% / −63.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +49.8%	Exit below $251.59 (−12.6%)	13% 16/121	+5.4% / +14.6%	−46.3% / −63.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $239.63 (−16.8%)	37% 49/134	+7.2% / +14.6%	−43.9% / −63.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above $288.04 (+0.1%)	22% 184/853	−2.9% / +14.6%	−79.6% / −63.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below $204.38 (−29.0%)	38% 98/255	+8.4% / +14.6%	−55.5% / −63.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jan 14, 2026 +51.3%	Not on one close	24% 9/38	+8.7% / +14.4%	−40.5% / −63.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +2.3%	Exit below $248.84 (−13.6%)	30% 41/136	+6.5% / +14.6%	−53.0% / −63.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Exit below $263.34 (−8.5%)	30% 37/122	+7.2% / +14.6%	−47.0% / −63.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $273.98 (−4.8%)	34% 55/162	+4.6% / +14.6%	−52.5% / −63.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	44% 154/352	+7.2% / +14.6%	−31.2% / −63.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below $256.83 (−10.8%)	33% 209/630	+2.4% / +14.6%	−59.6% / −63.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $255.82 (−11.1%)	38% 77/204	+7.2% / +14.6%	−53.5% / −63.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above $295.36 (+2.6%)	35% 183/516	+6.1% / +14.6%	−42.8% / −63.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 24, 2026 −4.5%	Not on one close	28% 41/144	+0.5% / +14.6%	−42.0% / −63.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $223.25 (−22.4%)	32% 58/184	+8.3% / +14.6%	−43.9% / −63.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $282.05 (−2.0%)	31% 67/218	+2.7% / +14.6%	−73.1% / −63.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	32% 75/232	+7.1% / +14.6%	−50.4% / −63.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +7.1%	Not on one close	37% 89/238	+4.5% / +14.6%	−60.6% / −63.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $232.63 (−19.2%)	30% 50/166	+7.9% / +14.6%	−40.5% / −63.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Exit below $209.79 (−27.1%)	26% 27/102	+7.3% / +14.6%	−40.1% / −63.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $266.79 (−7.3%)	43% 88/207	+8.3% / +14.6%	−23.9% / −63.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 +1.5%	Not on one close	21% 5/24	+0.9% / +14.6%	−18.6% / −63.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $257.10 (−10.7%)	38% 49/128	+7.9% / +14.6%	−52.4% / −63.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −3.2%	Exit below $280.72 (−2.5%)	26% 42/164	+0.9% / +14.6%	−54.7% / −63.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −3.2%	Exit below $280.72 (−2.5%)	23% 26/114	+1.8% / +14.6%	−48.7% / −63.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Exit below $270.29 (−6.1%)	18% 23/126	−1.4% / +14.6%	−62.4% / −63.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $256.78 (−10.8%)	31% 35/114	+3.0% / +14.6%	−49.7% / −63.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Exit below $280.98 (−2.4%)	33% 49/148	+2.1% / +14.6%	−45.9% / −63.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.3%	Exit below $280.33 (−2.6%)	30% 71/238	+1.5% / +14.6%	−44.6% / −63.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.3%	Exit below $272.87 (−5.2%)	35% 67/194	+5.7% / +14.6%	−42.5% / −63.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $271.83 (−5.6%)	39% 67/174	+6.0% / +14.6%	−38.8% / −63.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Exit below $245.95 (−14.6%)	36% 29/80	+7.1% / +14.6%	−65.8% / −63.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.3%	Exit below $277.89 (−3.5%)	23% 79/344	+3.0% / +14.6%	−63.9% / −63.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.4%	Not on one close	26% 46/176	+1.2% / +14.6%	−24.2% / −63.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	37% 55/150	+4.4% / +14.6%	−18.9% / −63.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Exit below $280.23 (−2.6%)	30% 214/717	−4.0% / +14.6%	−81.3% / −63.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.3%	Exit below $280.33 (−2.6%)	16% 4/25	+1.3% / +14.6%	−14.9% / −63.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +34.9%	Exit below $164.65 (−42.8%)	22% 9/41	+6.6% / +14.8%	−44.9% / −63.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +37.1%	Not on one close	47% 21/45	+10.9% / +14.8%	−36.8% / −63.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $183.08 (−36.4%)	32% 12/37	+5.0% / +14.8%	−45.6% / −63.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 +3.0%	Not on one close	19% 30/161	+5.5% / +14.6%	−36.6% / −63.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +4.4%	Enter above $314.06 (+9.1%)	27% 8/30	+4.6% / +14.6%	−45.6% / −63.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above $293.74 (+2.0%)	27% 38/139	+7.9% / +14.6%	−36.5% / −63.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below $285.62 (−0.8%)	33% 151/451	+6.6% / +14.6%	−61.5% / −63.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +2.2%	Enter above $290.31 (+0.9%)	27% 224/838	−0.8% / +14.6%	−72.0% / −63.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +7.1%	Exit below $226.44 (−21.3%)	43% 130/305	+7.9% / +14.6%	−49.9% / −63.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +34.9%	Not on one close	20% 3/15	+13.7% / +14.3%	−37.7% / −63.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.4%	Enter above $295.31 (+2.6%)	25% 163/658	−1.5% / +14.6%	−71.3% / −63.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +9.3%	Exit below $146.32 (−49.2%)	42% 116/273	+8.1% / +14.6%	−58.7% / −63.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $220.12 (−23.5%)	33% 59/180	+8.6% / +14.6%	−48.2% / −63.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Exit below $268.23 (−6.8%)	28% 24/85	+5.5% / +14.8%	−51.5% / −63.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +37.1%	Not on one close	46% 16/35	+9.3% / +14.7%	−43.9% / −63.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +37.1%	Not on one close	39% 13/33	+9.6% / +14.8%	−33.4% / −63.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +7.1%	Exit below $258.25 (−10.3%)	35% 121/345	+7.3% / +14.6%	−49.7% / −63.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Dec 4, 2025 +62.5%	Not on one close	69% 27/39	+7.6% / +14.6%	−54.9% / −63.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	62% 190/306	+4.8% / +14.6%	−28.7% / −63.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +2.2%	Sell above $297.23 (+3.3%)	66% 259/393	+9.2% / +14.6%	−33.7% / −63.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 +7.1%	Buy below $257.23 (−10.6%)	66% 128/194	+7.7% / +14.6%	−25.2% / −63.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Not on one close	59% 96/162	+3.6% / +14.6%	−56.6% / −63.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +9.3%	Not on one close	58% 172/296	+4.4% / +14.6%	−53.4% / −63.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Not on one close	64% 48/75	+4.7% / +14.6%	−53.1% / −63.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,815.3%	Sell above $608.09 (+111.3%)	–	+14.6% / +14.6%	−63.8% / −63.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Mar 10, 2020 +207.5%	Not on one close	57% 8/14	+2.7% / +14.6%	−4.2% / −63.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +9.3%	Not on one close	45% 145/324	+7.6% / +14.6%	−52.0% / −63.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	54% 227/422	+0.2% / +14.6%	−51.2% / −63.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +8.0%	Buy below $287.85 (0.0%)	60% 1101/1822	+16.2% / +14.6%	−21.4% / −63.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +8.0%	Not on one close	64% 67/104	+7.4% / +14.6%	−20.7% / −63.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.4%	Enter above $298.80 (+3.8%)	36% 404/1136	−0.4% / +14.6%	−67.8% / −63.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Buy below $285.74 (−0.7%)	58% 81/139	+9.4% / +14.6%	−43.9% / −63.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +8.0%	Not on one close	22% 197/884	−2.6% / +14.6%	−76.0% / −63.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.3%	Not on one close	41% 82/198	+4.4% / +14.6%	−53.6% / −63.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	67% 26/39	+10.5% / +14.6%	−46.2% / −63.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Sep 2, 2026 +13.0%	Exit below $275.06 (−4.4%)	37% 22/60	+11.7% / +14.9%	−58.8% / −63.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below $281.88 (−2.1%)	25% 196/776	+1.1% / +14.6%	−68.9% / −63.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +9.3%	Exit below $239.83 (−16.7%)	37% 134/366	+5.8% / +14.6%	−49.9% / −63.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +8.0%	Not on one close	30% 190/630	−0.7% / +14.6%	−74.6% / −63.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Mar 23, 2026 +54.2%	Not on one close	25% 28/113	+8.8% / +15.1%	−43.4% / −63.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.4%	Not on one close	35% 347/1000	+2.1% / +14.6%	−42.2% / −63.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.4%	Not on one close	55% 63/114	+9.9% / +14.6%	−57.7% / −63.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 18, 2026 +5.7%	Not on one close	33% 38/116	+2.1% / +14.6%	−42.5% / −63.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Nov 20, 2025 +90.9%	Not on one close	39% 26/66	−0.2% / +14.6%	−39.7% / −63.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +3.5%	Buys Oct 30	58% 25/43	+11.6% / +14.6%	−38.6% / −63.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	May 8, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $298.91 (+3.8%)	56% 24/43	+11.2% / +14.6%	−32.8% / −63.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 19, 2026 −4.3%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+10.0% / +14.6%	−40.5% / −63.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +65.2%	Buys Dec 23	45% 20/44	+2.1% / +14.6%	−11.7% / −63.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −2.4%	Buys Oct 29	49% 257/526	+3.9% / +14.6%	−37.3% / −63.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Sells Jun 30	55% 6/11	+4.7% / +14.6%	−26.8% / −63.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +11.4%	Buys Nov 24	50% 200/400	+3.3% / +14.6%	−12.9% / −63.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +94.0%	Not on one close	30% 6/20	+6.5% / +14.6%	−47.6% / −63.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +2.2%	Sells Oct 16	52% 1185/2284	+5.3% / +14.6%	−64.6% / −63.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +10.4%	Buys Oct 27	49% 170/348	+3.6% / +14.6%	−12.6% / −63.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −2.0%	Sells Oct 16	48% 257/541	+5.1% / +14.6%	−39.3% / −63.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+14.6%	−63.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.3× its index.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Jan 2011

TXN−61%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jun 2020

TXN−30%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · back to its old high Feb 2023

TXN−21%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.26Moves about 1.3× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture120%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 120% as much on average.
Two-year change+48%
From 52-week high−13%
Debt to equity0.86×
Net debt / EBITDA0.7×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover11.5×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Semiconductors · Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$263B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$19.5B	Total sales. The market values it at 13.5× sales.
P/E ratio	43.7×	Buyers pay $44 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	27.0×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	14.6×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	31.1%	Keeps 31¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+16.7%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+20.3%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	33.6%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$3.5B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$16.3B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$14.1B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$7.0B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.86×	Moderate.
Interest cover	11.5×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$324.71	13% above the close, from 31 analysts (range $225.00 to $400.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	1.95%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

TXN: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Semiconductors: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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