Semiconductors

ASML Holding (ASML)

$1,717.76 −1.9% on the day·+75.6% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold56 / 100

Hold: 56 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+10% vs 200-day) scores 71 and lifts it; Plays in (46%) scores 46 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	ASML	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	46%	46	40	18.4
Off the high	−14% from its 1-year high	55	30	16.5
Trend	+10% vs 200-day	71	30	21.3

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ASML

Factor	ASML	Points	What it is
Plays in	46%	46	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+23% · 16 analysts	61	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.4 · strong buy	79	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	55.8×	15	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	29.2×	12	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.58	44	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	–	–	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher.
Price to book	–	–	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	0.5%	16	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+28%	57	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+21%	65	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	30%	83	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	54%	94	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.09×	84	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−14% from its 1-year high	55	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+10% vs 200-day	71	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+76%	89	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	5/10 · high	50	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ASML

46 of the 100 plays hold ASML right now.
The breakout and mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 10% above its 200-day average and 14% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 1.5× its index and fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $2,112.65, 23% above the close (16 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in46 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.10×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+10%). Higher than on 48% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ASML now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn ASML: right 8 of 26 · Out since Feb 24, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn ASML: right 37 of 112 · In since Sep 29, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn ASML: right 13 of 29 · In since Oct 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn ASML: right 139 of 206 · Out since Sep 21, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn ASML: right 14 of 33 · In since Feb 18, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn ASML: right 35 of 70 · Out since Oct 6, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn ASML: right 23 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

ASML, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ASML lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 14−6.8% against the S&P 5002.4× a normal day

ASML −7.3%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; −1.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ASML was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ASML starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved −6.4% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 14, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 10.76.

Over its last 12 reports, ASML's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±5.3% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 4 times.
ASML after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 13 of 28 times (median −0.6%).
ASML after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 3 of 5 times (median 0.0%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ASML

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following19 of 30 in Breakouts & channels3 of 15 in Momentum11 of 17 in Mean reversion3 of 15 in Volume & money flow5 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ASML went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $1,773.23 (+3.2%)	29% 180/621	+9.4% / +24.5%	−61.3% / −64.1%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Aug 15, 2025 +133.0%	Exit below $1,697.86 (−1.2%)	32% 31/98	+17.3% / +24.5%	−38.9% / −64.1%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,752.74 (+2.0%)	25% 86/349	+11.0% / +24.5%	−54.6% / −64.1%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,743.16 (+1.5%)	19% 46/248	+7.7% / +24.7%	−39.1% / −64.1%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 8, 2025 +139.4%	Exit below $1,661.68 (−3.3%)	31% 19/61	+18.9% / +24.5%	−30.3% / −64.1%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 12, 2025 +112.5%	Exit below $1,661.68 (−3.3%)	32% 23/73	+18.7% / +24.5%	−32.5% / −64.1%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +132.8%	Exit below $1,594.38 (−7.2%)	42% 13/31	+19.4% / +24.5%	−46.7% / −64.1%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Aug 8, 2025 +139.4%	Exit below $1,568.13 (−8.7%)	14% 21/149	+18.7% / +24.5%	−39.7% / −64.1%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jun 25, 2025 +112.6%	Not on one close	57% 12/21	+22.6% / +24.5%	−37.9% / −64.1%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2025 +126.6%	Exit below $1,568.13 (−8.7%)	16% 16/97	+16.2% / +24.5%	−39.2% / −64.1%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −8.0%	Exit below $1,636.82 (−4.7%)	37% 53/144	+7.8% / +24.5%	−51.1% / −64.1%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −4.8%	Enter above $1,794.58 (+4.5%)	26% 208/789	+3.4% / +24.5%	−57.8% / −64.1%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −1.7%	Exit below $1,582.18 (−7.9%)	37% 104/280	+7.9% / +24.5%	−45.3% / −64.1%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2025 +117.2%	Not on one close	38% 10/26	+19.2% / +24.2%	−40.1% / −64.1%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 −6.4%	Exit below $1,672.99 (−2.6%)	28% 40/142	+9.8% / +24.5%	−49.9% / −64.1%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $1,721.92 (+0.2%)	28% 33/118	+13.9% / +24.5%	−44.4% / −64.1%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $1,714.32 (−0.2%)	32% 69/214	+4.3% / +24.5%	−64.0% / −64.1%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −8.0%	Not on one close	44% 135/306	+6.6% / +24.5%	−40.6% / −64.1%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,727.88 (+0.6%)	37% 200/537	+13.5% / +24.5%	−41.3% / −64.1%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 −6.4%	Exit below $1,572.84 (−8.4%)	36% 73/202	+7.9% / +24.5%	−57.0% / −64.1%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,869.67 (+8.8%)	40% 186/470	+9.1% / +24.5%	−52.7% / −64.1%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −1.6%	Not on one close	26% 42/161	−2.0% / +24.5%	−59.9% / −64.1%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $1,603.58 (−6.6%)	32% 61/190	+10.9% / +24.5%	−45.0% / −64.1%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −3.5%	Enter above $1,851.56 (+7.8%)	37% 92/249	+6.8% / +24.5%	−56.5% / −64.1%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $1,789.87 (+4.2%)	32% 74/230	+8.7% / +24.5%	−46.2% / −64.1%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.9%	Not on one close	39% 99/257	+8.2% / +24.5%	−48.5% / −64.1%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $1,636.73 (−4.7%)	34% 58/172	+13.0% / +24.5%	−41.7% / −64.1%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 −6.4%	Exit below $1,396.50 (−18.7%)	30% 29/96	+15.2% / +24.5%	−42.3% / −64.1%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.9%	Enter above $1,725.26 (+0.4%)	38% 96/251	+6.0% / +24.5%	−41.8% / −64.1%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 24, 2026 +15.1%	Not on one close	31% 8/26	+2.0% / +24.5%	−14.5% / −64.1%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 −6.4%	Exit below $1,584.54 (−7.8%)	37% 56/150	+5.7% / +24.5%	−59.4% / −64.1%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 27, 2026 +3.9%	Enter above $1,873.50 (+9.1%)	28% 52/185	+5.3% / +24.5%	−41.8% / −64.1%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 27, 2026 +3.9%	Enter above $1,896.34 (+10.4%)	24% 33/139	+1.9% / +24.5%	−44.9% / −64.1%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 13, 2026 −0.4%	Enter above $1,883.13 (+9.6%)	25% 38/152	+1.8% / +24.5%	−54.2% / −64.1%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +9.1%	Not on one close	36% 44/123	+9.6% / +24.5%	−49.9% / −64.1%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.9%	Enter above $1,909.38 (+11.2%)	32% 67/207	+5.8% / +24.5%	−35.9% / −64.1%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $1,906.77 (+11.0%)	34% 76/225	+4.2% / +24.5%	−41.3% / −64.1%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $1,710.57 (−0.4%)	33% 70/212	+6.1% / +24.5%	−49.5% / −64.1%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,873.98 (+9.1%)	35% 81/233	+7.2% / +24.5%	−50.3% / −64.1%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 −6.4%	Exit below $1,551.19 (−9.7%)	33% 37/112	+7.6% / +24.5%	−47.8% / −64.1%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,740.39 (+1.3%)	27% 108/403	+8.4% / +24.5%	−45.3% / −64.1%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −4.8%	Not on one close	24% 89/364	−1.2% / +24.5%	−48.7% / −64.1%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 +16.8%	Not on one close	32% 29/92	+0.4% / +24.5%	−40.8% / −64.1%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −4.8%	Enter above $1,830.01 (+6.5%)	32% 258/805	+1.6% / +24.5%	−66.0% / −64.1%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jan 24, 2025 +138.0%	Not on one close	25% 8/32	+1.3% / +24.5%	−17.1% / −64.1%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +78.6%	Exit below $1,093.09 (−36.4%)	26% 5/19	+16.2% / +24.3%	−44.9% / −64.1%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +62.9%	Not on one close	45% 13/29	+15.8% / +24.3%	−51.9% / −64.1%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +62.9%	Exit below $1,215.43 (−29.2%)	29% 9/31	+13.0% / +24.3%	−53.2% / −64.1%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −1.5%	Not on one close	21% 38/179	+10.8% / +24.5%	−38.6% / −64.1%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +5.4%	Enter above $1,887.53 (+9.9%)	38% 10/26	+14.0% / +24.5%	−37.9% / −64.1%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $1,764.19 (+2.7%)	29% 34/119	+15.9% / +24.5%	−34.1% / −64.1%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $1,874.64 (+9.1%)	34% 153/451	+9.1% / +24.5%	−47.1% / −64.1%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.9%	Enter above $1,772.46 (+3.2%)	31% 238/773	+3.7% / +24.5%	−63.2% / −64.1%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $1,617.65 (−5.8%)	42% 119/286	+11.4% / +24.5%	−46.2% / −64.1%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +78.6%	Not on one close	56% 5/9	+19.5% / +23.6%	−51.3% / −64.1%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −4.8%	Enter above $1,919.43 (+11.7%)	25% 179/708	−1.2% / +24.5%	−68.0% / −64.1%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below $1,332.00 (−22.5%)	41% 112/272	+9.7% / +24.5%	−38.7% / −64.1%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $1,590.83 (−7.4%)	33% 62/186	+11.2% / +24.5%	−45.2% / −64.1%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +132.8%	Exit below $1,663.82 (−3.1%)	41% 29/70	+20.7% / +24.3%	−40.3% / −64.1%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +62.9%	Not on one close	36% 8/22	+13.3% / +24.3%	−60.2% / −64.1%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +62.9%	Not on one close	44% 20/45	+13.4% / +24.3%	−40.6% / −64.1%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,787.26 (+4.0%)	34% 120/355	+6.6% / +24.5%	−41.6% / −64.1%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	May 15, 2025 +128.6%	Not on one close	50% 15/30	+6.0% / +24.5%	−56.5% / −64.1%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −2.9%	Sell above $1,754.54 (+2.1%)	58% 195/339	+7.6% / +24.5%	−29.6% / −64.1%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −4.8%	Sell above $1,834.10 (+6.8%)	61% 258/423	+14.7% / +24.5%	−30.2% / −64.1%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +0.4%	Buy below $1,629.02 (−5.2%)	67% 139/206	+13.3% / +24.5%	−48.1% / −64.1%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 −5.0%	Not on one close	60% 113/188	+14.1% / +24.5%	−52.1% / −64.1%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above $1,720.31 (+0.1%)	59% 170/288	+9.2% / +24.5%	−59.8% / −64.1%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −5.2%	Not on one close	64% 55/86	+13.6% / +24.5%	−56.6% / −64.1%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +11,677.7%	Sell above $3,790.22 (+120.6%)	–	+24.5% / +24.5%	−64.1% / −64.1%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2025 +75.6%	Buy below $651.50 (−62.1%)	56% 10/18	+3.2% / +24.5%	−5.7% / −64.1%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.9%	Enter above $1,788.24 (+4.1%)	48% 147/309	+4.6% / +24.5%	−53.1% / −64.1%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −6.3%	Enter above $1,747.81 (+1.7%)	51% 227/442	+1.8% / +24.5%	−69.8% / −64.1%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Buy below $1,717.74 (0.0%)	57% 991/1752	+12.7% / +24.5%	−35.9% / −64.1%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Not on one close	60% 73/122	+11.5% / +24.5%	−34.7% / −64.1%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −6.3%	Enter above $1,914.79 (+11.5%)	39% 427/1104	+9.7% / +24.5%	−59.4% / −64.1%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.3%	Buy below $1,848.21 (+7.6%)	59% 79/134	+11.7% / +24.5%	−49.4% / −64.1%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −4.8%	Not on one close	27% 205/747	+9.2% / +24.5%	−45.9% / −64.1%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 −1.5%	Not on one close	41% 79/194	+9.1% / +24.5%	−62.2% / −64.1%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Feb 18, 2026 +17.4%	Not on one close	42% 14/33	+3.9% / +24.5%	−65.9% / −64.1%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Apr 5, 2024 +79.0%	Exit below $1,477.18 (−14.0%)	38% 42/110	+20.5% / +24.9%	−53.7% / −64.1%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.9%	Enter above $1,778.03 (+3.5%)	31% 220/699	+8.3% / +24.5%	−48.8% / −64.1%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $1,830.29 (+6.6%)	37% 121/328	+14.3% / +24.5%	−48.9% / −64.1%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −3.5%	Not on one close	37% 209/563	+4.1% / +24.5%	−56.3% / −64.1%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	May 13, 2025 +126.9%	Not on one close	36% 34/95	+21.6% / +24.7%	−38.0% / −64.1%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −7.6%	Not on one close	35% 340/960	+5.9% / +24.5%	−53.2% / −64.1%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −6.3%	Not on one close	50% 35/70	+11.4% / +24.5%	−61.2% / −64.1%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $1,700.88 (−1.0%)	34% 37/109	+6.1% / +24.5%	−36.6% / −64.1%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +4.3%	Not on one close	40% 24/60	+1.3% / +24.5%	−36.5% / −64.1%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +19.5%	Buys Oct 30	53% 23/43	+15.7% / +24.5%	−40.6% / −64.1%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 22, 2026 +19.4%	Enter above $1,917.96 (+11.7%)	60% 26/43	+18.3% / +24.5%	−44.4% / −64.1%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 27, 2026 +20.1%	Window opens Oct 16	60% 26/43	+17.1% / +24.5%	−37.9% / −64.1%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +40.5%	Buys Dec 23	34% 15/44	+2.1% / +24.5%	−12.3% / −64.1%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −7.6%	Buys Oct 29	51% 266/526	+4.7% / +24.5%	−36.4% / −64.1%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −5.2%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+6.5% / +24.5%	−31.3% / −64.1%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.2%	Buys Nov 24	47% 187/400	+2.7% / +24.5%	−12.9% / −64.1%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +224.7%	Not on one close	45% 9/20	+14.6% / +24.5%	−48.2% / −64.1%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −1.9%	Sells Oct 16	50% 1152/2284	+14.6% / +24.5%	−58.6% / −64.1%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +7.2%	Buys Oct 27	49% 170/348	+5.6% / +24.5%	−8.8% / −64.1%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −8.0%	Sells Oct 16	49% 267/541	+7.4% / +24.5%	−52.7% / −64.1%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+24.5%	−64.1%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh5 of 10 points

Market swings3/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt0/3
Run-up1/2

It moves about 1.5× its index.
It fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 108% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Oct 2009

ASML−60%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high May 2020

ASML−38%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2024

ASML−50%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.52Moves about 1.5× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture134%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 134% as much on average.
Two-year change+108%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−14%
Debt to equity0.10×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover97.4×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$660B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	€35.3B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	55.8×	Buyers pay $56 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	29.2×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	1,504.9×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	30.1%	Keeps 30¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+21.3%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+28.5%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	53.9%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	€8.4B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	€19.6B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	€2.0B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	€7.6B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.10×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	97.4×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$2,112.65	23% above the close, from 16 analysts (range $867.02 to $2,899.97).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.52%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

ASML: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Semiconductors: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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