Software & devices

Shopify (SHOP)

C$251.04 +3.0% on the day·+18.8% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy85 / 100

Buy: 85 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 100 and lifts it; Plays in (65%) scores 65 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	SHOP	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	65%	65	40	26.0
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	30	30.0
Trend	+40% vs 200-day	97	30	29.1

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for SHOP

Factor	SHOP	Points	What it is
Plays in	65%	65	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	−6% · 3 analysts	20	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.7 · buy	65	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	118.0×	8	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	71.7×	3	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.73	40	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	17.2×	8	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	18.0×	7	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	−17%	20	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+33%	75	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	15%	58	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	15%	59	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.01×	92	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+40% vs 200-day	97	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+19%	55	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	5/10 · high	50	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on SHOP

65 of the 100 plays hold SHOP right now.
The trend-following, breakout and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 40% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 2.6× its index and fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$236.63, 6% below the close (3 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in65 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.40×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+40%). Higher than on 79% of days since 2016. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about SHOP now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn SHOP: right 8 of 20 · Out since Jan 10, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn SHOP: right 47 of 129 · In since Sep 22, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn SHOP: right 7 of 9 · Out since Jul 31, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn SHOP: right 41 of 74 · Out since Sep 21, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn SHOP: right 16 of 26 · Out since Jun 5, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn SHOP: right 43 of 70 · Out since Sep 17, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn SHOP: right 10 of 22 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

SHOP, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved SHOP lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Sep 22+6.5% against the S&P/TSX1.7× a normal day

SHOP +7.4%, the S&P/TSX +0.9% that session; +7.0% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on SHOP was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for SHOP starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.9%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.3% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 21+7.3% against the S&P/TSX1.9× a normal day

SHOP +7.8%, the S&P/TSX +0.6% that session; +12.2% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on SHOP was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for SHOP starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.6%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved +3.0% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Tue Sep 8−6.8% against the S&P/TSX1.9× a normal day

SHOP −7.8%, the S&P/TSX −1.1% that session; −5.0% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

Price target raisedAnalyst rating · Sep 8, 1:44 pm ET
Piper Sandler raised its price target to 180 from 172, keeping Overweight.
After price target raises, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 55% of the time (2,637 of 4,768 on 215 stocks; median move +0.2%). This time the stock went the other way. Low predictability
SHOP after price target raises: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 22 of 37 times (median +0.5%).

Next earnings report

Tue Nov 3, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.46.

Over its last 12 reports, SHOP's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±15.5% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
SHOP after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 14 of 25 times (median +6.0%).
SHOP after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 5 of 7 times (median −3.4%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on SHOP

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following26 of 30 in Breakouts & channels13 of 15 in Momentum10 of 17 in Mean reversion3 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on SHOP went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2015. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$217.29 (−13.4%)	29% 85/290	+21.3% / +44.2%	−63.9% / −83.5%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +18.8%	Exit below C$185.66 (−26.0%)	32% 16/50	+37.0% / +49.9%	−42.8% / −83.5%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$203.32 (−19.0%)	23% 38/168	+27.4% / +44.6%	−50.1% / −83.5%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jan 14, 2026 +14.8%	Not on one close	18% 20/110	+18.1% / +51.5%	−51.7% / −83.5%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +18.2%	Exit below C$176.60 (−29.7%)	24% 12/51	+31.8% / +52.0%	−42.5% / −83.5%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +16.3%	Exit below C$205.93 (−18.0%)	22% 12/55	+28.9% / +51.6%	−43.0% / −83.5%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +22.9%	Exit below C$175.48 (−30.1%)	27% 4/15	+42.5% / +51.8%	−62.6% / −83.5%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$179.32 (−28.6%)	15% 11/73	+37.9% / +49.6%	−46.0% / −83.5%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +18.2%	Not on one close	54% 7/13	+53.3% / +49.6%	−48.6% / −83.5%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Jan 30, 2026 +40.5%	Enter above C$473.99 (+88.8%)	21% 11/52	+39.4% / +49.0%	−46.0% / −83.5%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below C$176.84 (−29.6%)	34% 23/68	+19.9% / +43.4%	−61.4% / −83.5%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$238.13 (−5.1%)	26% 104/396	+10.0% / +43.7%	−82.9% / −83.5%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +19.0%	Exit below C$137.64 (−45.2%)	30% 43/142	+7.5% / +48.8%	−77.3% / −83.5%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +24.3%	Not on one close	30% 3/10	+44.8% / +49.0%	−60.6% / −83.5%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +22.3%	Exit below C$112.54 (−55.2%)	34% 20/59	+34.9% / +46.9%	−40.9% / −83.5%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +25.2%	Exit below C$186.42 (−25.7%)	29% 19/65	+23.3% / +47.3%	−57.8% / −83.5%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +20.9%	Exit below C$223.07 (−11.1%)	34% 29/86	+22.0% / +43.4%	−64.3% / −83.5%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +19.0%	Not on one close	43% 74/172	+19.4% / +43.4%	−49.6% / −83.5%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +22.9%	Exit below C$160.14 (−36.2%)	37% 107/286	+19.6% / +45.1%	−62.7% / −83.5%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +18.4%	Exit below C$171.35 (−31.7%)	35% 36/104	+23.8% / +44.1%	−55.1% / −83.5%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$228.39 (−9.0%)	38% 99/263	+16.4% / +46.3%	−79.2% / −83.5%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 +27.7%	Enter above C$245.02 (−2.4%)	31% 33/105	+1.6% / +43.8%	−53.3% / −83.5%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +22.3%	Exit below C$76.59 (−69.5%)	25% 22/88	+20.8% / +44.4%	−49.3% / −83.5%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +24.8%	Exit below C$234.08 (−6.8%)	33% 59/178	+13.1% / +42.8%	−74.6% / −83.5%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +20.9%	Not on one close	29% 34/118	+15.0% / +44.4%	−62.9% / −83.5%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +24.3%	Not on one close	41% 48/117	+27.4% / +48.8%	−59.5% / −83.5%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +25.2%	Exit below C$86.73 (−65.5%)	27% 23/85	+24.5% / +44.7%	−51.9% / −83.5%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Jul 2, 2026 +48.0%	Not on one close	37% 17/46	+33.8% / +44.7%	−48.1% / −83.5%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below C$233.33 (−7.1%)	32% 38/119	+8.6% / +50.3%	−55.4% / −83.5%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jan 10, 2025 +67.7%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+2.8% / +44.4%	−16.9% / −83.5%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below C$177.05 (−29.5%)	31% 22/71	+14.6% / +43.4%	−59.4% / −83.5%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below C$209.51 (−16.5%)	36% 26/73	+23.5% / +43.3%	−47.4% / −83.5%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below C$209.51 (−16.5%)	35% 15/43	+22.5% / +43.3%	−48.1% / −83.5%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below C$220.30 (−12.2%)	35% 20/57	+22.2% / +44.7%	−29.4% / −83.5%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +20.9%	Exit below C$171.35 (−31.7%)	31% 20/65	+8.3% / +43.4%	−63.1% / −83.5%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below C$218.09 (−13.1%)	26% 24/93	+11.2% / +43.7%	−63.2% / −83.5%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below C$212.10 (−15.5%)	27% 35/130	+5.5% / +43.3%	−77.7% / −83.5%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +18.4%	Exit below C$227.27 (−9.5%)	30% 32/107	+16.8% / +43.4%	−64.4% / −83.5%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +20.9%	Exit below C$223.31 (−11.0%)	32% 32/100	+18.2% / +43.4%	−61.0% / −83.5%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +20.9%	Exit below C$190.13 (−24.3%)	36% 47/129	+23.1% / +46.2%	−60.5% / −83.5%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +22.3%	Exit below C$228.60 (−8.9%)	27% 50/187	+22.1% / +44.8%	−61.7% / −83.5%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +7.4%	Exit below C$235.01 (−6.4%)	27% 37/139	+3.7% / +43.4%	−25.2% / −83.5%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 +23.9%	Not on one close	29% 20/70	−0.1% / +43.7%	−50.1% / −83.5%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$214.24 (−14.7%)	35% 142/405	+12.0% / +46.6%	−84.4% / −83.5%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2025 +25.5%	Not on one close	23% 7/30	+1.5% / +48.7%	−39.1% / −83.5%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +19.0%	Enter above C$252.86 (+0.7%)	46% 6/13	+44.5% / +49.2%	−51.4% / −83.5%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +52.9%	Not on one close	78% 7/9	+43.3% / +49.2%	−62.7% / −83.5%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +52.3%	Enter above C$281.17 (+12.0%)	46% 6/13	+49.3% / +49.2%	−40.4% / −83.5%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jan 16, 2026 +15.7%	Not on one close	17% 13/76	+10.1% / +44.9%	−54.5% / −83.5%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jan 30, 2026 +40.5%	Enter above C$238.49 (−5.0%)	29% 7/24	+14.8% / +49.1%	−42.2% / −83.5%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +40.0%	Exit below C$185.91 (−25.9%)	21% 14/67	+24.5% / +46.9%	−60.3% / −83.5%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +20.9%	Exit below C$181.81 (−27.6%)	33% 82/245	+7.0% / +44.4%	−78.8% / −83.5%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$225.43 (−10.2%)	34% 119/353	+20.3% / +44.4%	−77.4% / −83.5%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +22.9%	Not on one close	35% 58/164	+10.3% / +42.9%	−75.3% / −83.5%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jan 31, 2023 +282.9%	Exit below C$129.70 (−48.3%)	0% 0/1	+16.4% / +37.8%	−47.7% / −83.5%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +19.5%	Exit below C$233.37 (−7.0%)	30% 108/357	+3.1% / +43.4%	−58.4% / −83.5%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +19.5%	Not on one close	37% 49/134	+12.2% / +44.7%	−65.6% / −83.5%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +22.3%	Exit below C$72.35 (−71.2%)	26% 22/86	+23.3% / +44.7%	−49.6% / −83.5%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +22.9%	Exit below C$194.89 (−22.4%)	35% 9/26	+45.8% / +49.2%	−43.9% / −83.5%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +52.9%	Not on one close	86% 6/7	+34.3% / +35.9%	−62.7% / −83.5%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Feb 27, 2026 +52.5%	Not on one close	62% 8/13	+40.2% / +49.2%	−66.0% / −83.5%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +22.3%	Exit below C$143.61 (−42.8%)	31% 54/176	+8.8% / +48.8%	−73.2% / −83.5%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 11, 2026 +18.2%	Not on one close	60% 12/20	+9.1% / +43.9%	−83.5% / −83.5%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +34.8%	Buy C$179.32–C$191.91 (−23.6%)	55% 94/170	+6.0% / +49.6%	−32.9% / −83.5%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Buy C$179.32–C$228.17 (−9.1%)	64% 135/212	+18.8% / +49.6%	−48.9% / −83.5%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Buy below C$164.37 (−34.5%)	55% 41/74	+4.5% / +43.3%	−71.8% / −83.5%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	64% 51/80	+21.5% / +42.3%	−78.7% / −83.5%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +25.2%	Not on one close	67% 100/150	+25.8% / +45.1%	−77.5% / −83.5%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.0%	Not on one close	61% 23/38	+23.2% / +46.4%	−74.5% / −83.5%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Mar 7, 2016 +7,231.8%	Sell above C$433.41 (+72.6%)	–	+49.6% / +49.6%	−83.5% / −83.5%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	May 22, 2024 +212.2%	Buy below C$124.04 (−50.6%)	50% 14/28	+4.8% / +48.8%	−13.2% / −83.5%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$224.06 (−10.7%)	43% 69/162	+14.6% / +43.7%	−71.4% / −83.5%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +25.2%	Not on one close	60% 136/228	+27.6% / +43.7%	−67.2% / −83.5%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.0%	Buy below C$251.04 (0.0%)	56% 523/940	+2.5% / +45.8%	−43.0% / −83.5%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Mar 4, 2026 +42.0%	Not on one close	63% 33/52	+12.6% / +49.6%	−65.9% / −83.5%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$249.52 (−0.6%)	38% 205/545	+10.3% / +44.4%	−85.4% / −83.5%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +52.9%	Buy below C$215.17 (−14.3%)	65% 40/62	+8.3% / +44.8%	−80.2% / −83.5%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +19.5%	Not on one close	26% 106/404	+14.2% / +43.3%	−60.1% / −83.5%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +7.2%	Not on one close	31% 36/117	+15.5% / +43.4%	−73.3% / −83.5%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 +64.3%	Not on one close	62% 16/26	+14.7% / +43.9%	−70.3% / −83.5%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Mar 4, 2026 +42.0%	Not on one close	33% 17/51	+41.2% / +50.3%	−53.5% / −83.5%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below C$226.46 (−9.8%)	29% 101/348	+16.5% / +44.9%	−61.0% / −83.5%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +22.3%	Not on one close	34% 63/184	+14.1% / +43.3%	−76.9% / −83.5%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +20.9%	Not on one close	32% 95/297	+10.4% / +43.4%	−85.4% / −83.5%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 10, 2026 +16.2%	Not on one close	29% 11/38	+39.5% / +49.7%	−59.3% / −83.5%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +19.5%	Not on one close	34% 165/487	+6.7% / +45.6%	−84.3% / −83.5%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 +39.5%	Not on one close	61% 43/70	+19.2% / +46.2%	−81.6% / −83.5%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	May 27, 2026 +70.2%	Exit below C$141.30 (−43.7%)	38% 20/53	+25.0% / +46.0%	−40.4% / −83.5%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 24, 2023 +352.9%	Not on one close	56% 10/18	+6.2% / +42.8%	−7.2% / −83.5%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +52.3%	Buys Oct 30	45% 10/22	+17.5% / +45.8%	−78.6% / −83.5%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 10, 2026 +63.5%	Not on one close	45% 10/22	+18.1% / +44.4%	−72.7% / −83.5%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 29, 2026 +51.2%	Window opens Oct 16	55% 12/22	+21.8% / +44.4%	−72.3% / −83.5%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +9.6%	Buys Dec 23	36% 8/22	+0.2% / +45.8%	−35.2% / −83.5%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +10.0%	Buys Oct 29	45% 122/274	+12.0% / +45.8%	−43.9% / −83.5%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +19.0%	Sells Jun 30	67% 4/6	+19.4% / +45.8%	−30.8% / −83.5%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +25.0%	Buys Nov 24	46% 94/203	+5.1% / +45.8%	−13.8% / −83.5%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +434.0%	Not on one close	25% 2/8	+39.7% / +48.6%	−47.7% / −83.5%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	50% 590/1189	+28.7% / +45.8%	−78.1% / −83.5%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +38.1%	Buys Oct 27	56% 100/180	+11.6% / +45.8%	−10.4% / −83.5%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +16.3%	Sells Oct 16	49% 137/282	+24.8% / +45.8%	−64.0% / −83.5%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	May 21, 2015	Always in	–	+47.2%	−83.5%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh5 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up1/2

It moves about 2.6× its index.
It fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 119% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Apr 2020

SHOP−36%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Feb 2025

SHOP−80%

TSX−14%

Beta2.63Moves about 2.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture123%In months the TSX fell, this fell 123% as much on average.
Two-year change+119%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high0%
Debt to equity0.01×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover1,639.1×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Software - Application · Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$326B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$13.3B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	118.0×	Buyers pay C$118 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	71.7×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	18.0×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	14.5%	Keeps 15¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+32.5%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−16.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	15.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$1.6B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$13.5B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$178M	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$4.9B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.01×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	1,639.1×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$236.63	6% below the close, from 3 analysts (range C$206.77 to C$263.54).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

SHOP: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Software & devices: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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