Volume & money flow · daily rule · Software & devices
Money Flow Index on Shopify
SHOP with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SHOP over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +14.7% | +43.9% | −0.5% | +7.6% |
| Total return | +369% | +5,956% | −2% | +44% |
| Worst drawdown | −70.3% | −83.5% | −70.3% | −83.5% |
| Volatility | 39.9% | 57.7% | 54.9% | 64.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.49 | 0.88 | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| Time invested | 36% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 16 of 26 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +14.9%; out calls saw SHOP move +45.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SHOP moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | OUT | C$152.79 | now | +64.3% | open |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IN | C$138.84 | Jun 5, 2026 | +10.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 27, 2024 | OUT | C$100.21 | Mar 12, 2025 | +38.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2024 | IN | C$84.56 | Aug 27, 2024 | +18.5% | ✓ right |
| Jun 18, 2024 | OUT | C$88.14 | Jul 31, 2024 | −4.1% | ✓ right |
| Apr 17, 2024 | IN | C$95.62 | Jun 18, 2024 | −7.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 21, 2023 | OUT | C$95.54 | Apr 17, 2024 | +0.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 2, 2023 | IN | C$78.25 | Nov 21, 2023 | +22.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 3, 2023 | OUT | C$70.93 | Jun 2, 2023 | +10.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 28, 2022 | IN | C$56.81 | Feb 3, 2023 | +24.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 5, 2022 | OUT | C$87.85 | Apr 28, 2022 | −35.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 22, 2021 | IN | C$177.67 | Apr 5, 2022 | −50.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 27 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.