Consumer & retail

Costco (COST)

$954.63 −0.5% on the day·+2.6% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold51 / 100

Hold: 51 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−13% from its 1-year high) scores 58 and lifts it; Trend (−1% vs 200-day) scores 41 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	COST	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	54%	54	40	21.6
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	58	30	17.4
Trend	−1% vs 200-day	41	30	12.3

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for COST

Factor	COST	Points	What it is
Plays in	54%	54	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+11% · 35 analysts	44	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.9 · buy	53	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	46.0×	20	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Forward P/E	38.2×	6	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	4.43	10	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	1.4×	80	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Price to book	11.8×	14	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Dividend yield	0.6%	18	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Earnings growth	+14%	43	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Revenue growth	+10%	40	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Profit margin	3%	27	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Return on equity	26%	80	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Debt to equity	0.17×	76	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-30.
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	58	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−1% vs 200-day	41	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+3%	36	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	0/10 · low	100	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on COST

54 of the 100 plays hold COST right now.
The volume plays mostly say in.
It closed 1% below its 200-day average and 13% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $1,060.80, 11% above the close (35 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in54 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.99×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−1%). Higher than on 19% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about COST now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn COST: right 29 of 67 · Out since Feb 6, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn COST: right 13 of 41 · Out since May 29, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn COST: right 10 of 20 · In since Jul 31, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn COST: right 111 of 176 · Out since Sep 25, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn COST: right 25 of 35 · In since Sep 18, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn COST: right 77 of 138 · In since Oct 5, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn COST: right 23 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

COST, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved COST lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Oct 12+1.4% against the S&P 5001.0× a normal day

COST +1.3%, the S&P 500 −0.1% that session.

HeadlineThe Motley Fool · Oct 11, 5:21 am ET
Costco Stock Is 14% Below Its Record. History Says Buyers Have Usually Been Rewarded.

Fri Sep 25+2.4% against the S&P 5001.5× a normal day

COST +2.9%, the S&P 500 +0.5% that session; +2.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Small beatEarnings report · Sep 24, 4:00 pm ET
COST reported earnings per share of 6.75 against 6.53 expected: a 3.4% beat.
After small beats, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 51% of the time (1,404 of 2,760 on 305 stocks; median move +0.1%). Low predictability
COST after small beats: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 13 of 26 times (median 0.0%).
Price target raisedAnalyst rating · Sep 25, 9:54 am ET
DA Davidson raised its price target to $1,040 from $1,000, keeping Neutral.
Came within two sessions of an earnings report, so the report likely drove the move. Kinds of news are scored without these.
Price target cutAnalyst rating · Sep 25, 8:14 am ET
7 firms cut their price targets: Freedom Broker, Raymond James, JP Morgan, Truist Securities and 3 more.
Came within two sessions of an earnings report, so the report likely drove the move. Kinds of news are scored without these.

Mon Sep 14+2.0% against the S&P 5001.2× a normal day

COST +1.6%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; −1.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on COST was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for COST starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on COST

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following16 of 30 in Breakouts & channels9 of 15 in Momentum9 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow9 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on COST went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.7%	Exit below $930.48 (−2.5%)	27% 170/638	+6.0% / +16.9%	−52.4% / −48.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $939.56 (−1.6%)	27% 29/106	+9.4% / +16.9%	−38.7% / −48.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below $929.31 (−2.7%)	23% 85/376	+5.6% / +16.9%	−53.5% / −48.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jun 13, 2025 −2.9%	Enter above $3,343.15 (+250.2%)	18% 30/169	+2.4% / +16.9%	−34.6% / −48.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jun 18, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $1,187.20 (+24.4%)	24% 17/71	+10.3% / +16.9%	−29.3% / −48.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Apr 10, 2026 −4.1%	Enter above $1,044.33 (+9.4%)	30% 28/93	+8.2% / +16.9%	−29.5% / −48.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above $960.54 (+0.6%)	24% 12/51	+9.7% / +16.9%	−41.7% / −48.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −0.2%	Enter above $963.01 (+0.9%)	11% 24/219	+7.0% / +16.9%	−35.8% / −48.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Aug 4, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above $3,037.81 (+218.2%)	33% 11/33	+12.1% / +16.9%	−33.7% / −48.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −0.2%	Enter above $963.01 (+0.9%)	11% 22/205	+5.5% / +16.9%	−35.8% / −48.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $909.48 (−4.7%)	37% 55/148	+6.1% / +16.9%	−30.6% / −48.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $933.96 (−2.2%)	24% 195/804	+5.6% / +16.9%	−49.3% / −48.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below $778.93 (−18.4%)	37% 100/269	+7.1% / +16.9%	−45.6% / −48.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above $1,185.63 (+24.2%)	18% 6/33	+12.6% / +17.3%	−41.8% / −48.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $937.05 (−1.8%)	30% 39/129	+8.1% / +16.9%	−33.0% / −48.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.5%	Exit below $938.84 (−1.7%)	34% 36/106	+10.4% / +16.9%	−28.6% / −48.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below $917.40 (−3.9%)	38% 55/144	+10.4% / +16.9%	−37.6% / −48.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +1.6%	Flips at next check	46% 157/341	+7.9% / +16.9%	−25.2% / −48.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below $851.17 (−10.8%)	37% 210/565	+8.0% / +16.9%	−29.3% / −48.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.7%	Exit below $883.10 (−7.5%)	43% 87/204	+10.6% / +16.9%	−24.5% / −48.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below $915.20 (−4.1%)	36% 181/499	+7.4% / +16.9%	−54.4% / −48.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Mar 5, 2026 −2.5%	Not on one close	31% 49/157	+3.8% / +16.9%	−18.5% / −48.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $848.24 (−11.1%)	31% 58/188	+6.9% / +16.9%	−33.2% / −48.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $909.04 (−4.8%)	40% 62/156	+8.8% / +16.9%	−42.1% / −48.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below $300.36 (−68.5%)	32% 76/236	+7.1% / +16.9%	−35.9% / −48.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Jul 8, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	39% 93/237	+9.3% / +16.9%	−26.7% / −48.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Aug 13, 2026 −0.8%	Exit below $858.71 (−10.0%)	31% 50/161	+6.7% / +16.9%	−34.7% / −48.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Jun 3, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above $949.44 (−0.5%)	34% 30/89	+10.4% / +16.9%	−30.5% / −48.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +4.2%	Enter above $966.01 (+1.2%)	31% 65/212	+2.5% / +16.9%	−24.1% / −48.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 6, 2026 −4.4%	Not on one close	43% 29/67	+2.8% / +16.9%	−10.5% / −48.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below $883.10 (−7.5%)	41% 49/120	+8.9% / +16.9%	−30.1% / −48.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	May 28, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above $987.55 (+3.4%)	35% 49/140	+5.8% / +16.9%	−24.7% / −48.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $987.55 (+3.4%)	34% 34/99	+6.2% / +16.9%	−25.0% / −48.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	May 22, 2026 −7.0%	Enter above $1,454.94 (+52.4%)	29% 33/115	+5.5% / +16.9%	−26.7% / −48.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	37% 45/121	+6.6% / +16.9%	−28.8% / −48.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.5%	Exit below $930.85 (−2.5%)	34% 54/157	+4.4% / +16.9%	−24.7% / −48.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below $921.84 (−3.4%)	34% 77/227	+5.2% / +16.9%	−31.6% / −48.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below $920.48 (−3.6%)	37% 71/193	+7.7% / +16.9%	−40.3% / −48.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $918.01 (−3.8%)	42% 67/158	+11.3% / +16.9%	−37.3% / −48.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,003.37 (+5.1%)	32% 13/41	+9.5% / +16.9%	−34.6% / −48.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below $924.93 (−3.1%)	29% 91/318	+8.4% / +16.9%	−43.0% / −48.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $955.74 (+0.1%)	29% 67/231	+1.9% / +16.9%	−17.8% / −48.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below $656.17 (−31.3%)	32% 51/159	+2.5% / +16.9%	−13.0% / −48.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +5.5%	Exit below $942.54 (−1.3%)	33% 215/655	+5.3% / +16.9%	−34.5% / −48.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2025 −4.9%	Not on one close	25% 9/36	+2.2% / +16.9%	−8.4% / −48.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −5.6%	Enter above $940.96 (−1.4%)	63% 12/19	+16.4% / +17.1%	−31.6% / −48.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	50% 10/20	+15.8% / +17.1%	−31.6% / −48.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2025 +2.3%	Enter above $1,046.27 (+9.6%)	48% 16/33	+10.5% / +17.1%	−31.6% / −48.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	20% 31/155	+7.5% / +16.9%	−31.3% / −48.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $1,037.94 (+8.7%)	38% 5/13	+13.3% / +16.9%	−31.4% / −48.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	May 22, 2026 −7.0%	Enter above $996.10 (+4.3%)	31% 40/129	+6.8% / +16.9%	−31.2% / −48.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $869.64 (−8.9%)	34% 146/427	+8.3% / +16.9%	−33.6% / −48.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.7%	Exit below $935.84 (−2.0%)	29% 225/786	+4.8% / +16.9%	−45.5% / −48.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $689.84 (−27.7%)	44% 128/291	+10.4% / +16.9%	−45.0% / −48.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $912.46 (−4.4%)	33% 2/6	+16.9% / +17.6%	−31.4% / −48.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below $945.32 (−1.0%)	30% 188/633	+4.7% / +16.9%	−14.1% / −48.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +4.9%	Exit below $497.06 (−47.9%)	40% 104/259	+9.8% / +16.9%	−31.0% / −48.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $846.91 (−11.3%)	30% 56/184	+6.8% / +16.9%	−38.5% / −48.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above $928.49 (−2.7%)	35% 25/71	+11.2% / +17.1%	−35.1% / −48.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	50% 9/18	+15.8% / +17.7%	−31.4% / −48.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 +5.0%	Not on one close	52% 15/29	+13.9% / +17.1%	−31.6% / −48.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below $825.85 (−13.5%)	36% 119/333	+9.1% / +16.9%	−46.5% / −48.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jan 13, 2026 +1.8%	Not on one close	59% 19/32	+7.5% / +16.9%	−35.0% / −48.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jun 4, 2026 −1.7%	Not on one close	58% 193/330	+3.5% / +16.9%	−18.2% / −48.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	64% 279/439	+7.1% / +16.9%	−33.8% / −48.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Buy below $874.24 (−8.4%)	63% 111/176	+6.1% / +16.9%	−31.6% / −48.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	63% 98/156	+8.0% / +16.9%	−47.3% / −48.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +4.9%	Not on one close	63% 175/279	+7.3% / +16.9%	−43.4% / −48.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	60% 40/67	+9.2% / +16.9%	−30.6% / −48.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +2,814.0%	Sell above $2,327.59 (+143.8%)	–	+16.9% / +16.9%	−48.0% / −48.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Mar 17, 2025 +5.0%	Buy below $875.82 (−8.3%)	50% 4/8	+2.1% / +16.9%	−3.5% / −48.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +5.5%	Exit below $933.80 (−2.2%)	46% 139/305	+7.6% / +16.9%	−40.8% / −48.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +6.5%	Not on one close	53% 225/421	+2.8% / +16.9%	−44.2% / −48.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above $954.62 (0.0%)	56% 934/1655	+5.2% / +16.9%	−18.3% / −48.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 27, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	55% 62/112	+4.8% / +16.9%	−25.9% / −48.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.1%	Exit below $960.95 (+0.7%)	36% 383/1055	+2.1% / +16.9%	−57.8% / −48.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +1.1%	Sell above $928.70 (−2.7%)	59% 75/128	+10.7% / +16.9%	−19.5% / −48.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.1%	Not on one close	24% 191/790	+5.9% / +16.9%	−44.6% / −48.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	38% 73/194	+7.7% / +16.9%	−44.2% / −48.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +6.6%	Not on one close	71% 25/35	+11.1% / +16.9%	−31.4% / −48.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jun 16, 2026 −3.1%	Not on one close	36% 33/92	+13.4% / +17.0%	−31.9% / −48.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $935.83 (−2.0%)	26% 186/720	+5.4% / +16.9%	−40.7% / −48.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below $799.16 (−16.3%)	36% 123/342	+9.1% / +16.9%	−44.0% / −48.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.1%	Not on one close	32% 195/602	+3.1% / +16.9%	−60.6% / −48.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.4%	Not on one close	28% 34/122	+8.6% / +16.9%	−34.0% / −48.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +6.6%	Not on one close	33% 330/1001	+1.9% / +16.9%	−52.6% / −48.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.4%	Not on one close	56% 77/138	+9.1% / +16.9%	−41.6% / −48.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	31% 38/121	+3.1% / +16.9%	−44.7% / −48.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2024 +11.9%	Not on one close	32% 16/50	+1.3% / +16.9%	−18.5% / −48.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −5.6%	Buys Oct 30	53% 23/43	+8.7% / +16.9%	−32.2% / −48.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 13, 2026 −2.4%	Not on one close	49% 21/43	+7.2% / +16.9%	−37.6% / −48.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 −4.0%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+8.6% / +16.9%	−33.4% / −48.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +9.5%	Buys Dec 23	34% 15/44	+1.8% / +16.9%	−6.9% / −48.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +3.4%	Buys Oct 29	49% 260/526	+5.3% / +16.9%	−21.0% / −48.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +4.9%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+5.3% / +16.9%	−26.5% / −48.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +4.2%	Buys Nov 24	48% 192/400	+2.0% / +16.9%	−13.8% / −48.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +118.8%	Not on one close	30% 6/20	+9.7% / +16.9%	−23.3% / −48.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.5%	Sells Oct 16	52% 1191/2284	+8.0% / +16.9%	−31.9% / −48.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +6.8%	Buys Oct 27	44% 153/348	+2.0% / +16.9%	−10.8% / −48.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.7%	Sells Oct 16	48% 258/541	+8.7% / +16.9%	−20.7% / −48.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+16.9%	−48.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow0 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Mar 2010

COST−38%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jul 2020

COST−13%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Jul 2023

COST−26%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.48Moves about 0.5× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture39%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 39% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+9%
From 52-week high−13%
Debt to equity0.35×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover71.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Discount Stores · Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Sweden, Iceland, and New Zealand.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$423B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$303B	Total sales. The market values it at 1.4× sales.
P/E ratio	46.0×	Buyers pay $46 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	38.2×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	11.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	3.0%	Keeps 3¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+10.1%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+14.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	25.8%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$6.8B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$29.2B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$10.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$21.3B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.35×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	71.2×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$1,060.80	11% above the close, from 35 analysts (range $770.00 to $1,315.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.58%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-08-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

COST: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Consumer & retail: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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