Consumer & retail
In the Nasdaq-100.
Your signal
Hold: 44 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+2% vs 200-day) scores 51 and lifts it; Off the high (−21% from its 1-year high) scores 32 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | MELI | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 48% | 48 | 40 | 19.2 |
| Off the high | −21% from its 1-year high | 32 | 30 | 9.6 |
| Trend | +2% vs 200-day | 51 | 30 | 15.3 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
| Factor | MELI | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 48% | 48 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | +21% · 26 analysts | 59 | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | 1.6 · buy | 69 | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | 51.0× | 17 | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Forward P/E | 33.3× | 9 | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| PEG | 1.00 | 65 | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Price to sales | 3.9× | 48 | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Price to book | 12.1× | 14 | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Dividend yield | none | 0 | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Earnings growth | −9% | 24 | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Revenue growth | +42% | 81 | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Profit margin | 8% | 42 | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Return on equity | 24% | 76 | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Debt to equity | 1.36× | 21 | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30. |
| Off the high | −21% from its 1-year high | 32 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +2% vs 200-day | 51 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | −14% | 20 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 3/10 · moderate | 70 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on MELIThis analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MELI now.
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured
MELI +9.7%, the S&P 500 +0.7% that session; +10.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.
MercadoLibre MELI Stock Rallies As Street Bets On Margin Upside
MercadoLibre Inc Stock (MELI) Moved Up by 7.74% on Oct 5: A Full Analysis
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
All 100 plays, by family.
Calls right: how often the play's calls on MELI went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2007. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,833.37 (−2.3%) | 29% 146/504 | +13.8% / +22.5% | −57.9% / −89.5% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $1,798.57 (−4.1%) | 26% 25/96 | +10.7% / +22.6% | −55.6% / −82.7% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,835.98 (−2.1%) | 28% 74/264 | +13.3% / +19.9% | −56.9% / −87.2% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2025 −19.7% | Not on one close | 26% 36/138 | +13.9% / +24.9% | −31.7% / −76.1% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Oct 3, 2025 −13.7% | Enter above $1,770.43 (−5.6%) | 29% 20/70 | +14.6% / +22.8% | −48.7% / −85.2% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Oct 3, 2025 −13.7% | Enter above $2,058.84 (+9.7%) | 28% 21/76 | +13.3% / +25.2% | −55.7% / −77.6% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +8.5% | Enter above $1,818.08 (−3.1%) | 33% 13/39 | +11.3% / +22.6% | −52.9% / −82.7% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,833.28 (−2.3%) | 17% 23/132 | +14.9% / +22.8% | −56.9% / −82.7% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Sep 8, 2026 −2.6% | Not on one close | 33% 8/24 | +11.8% / +22.8% | −60.5% / −82.7% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Jan 28, 2026 −17.3% | Enter above $6,299.22 (+235.8%) | 24% 19/78 | +14.8% / +23.9% | −49.9% / −77.6% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 +5.0% | Enter above $1,995.35 (+6.4%) | 44% 51/115 | +15.0% / +20.3% | −57.6% / −89.5% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,812.03 (−3.4%) | 27% 176/660 | +11.4% / +21.9% | −53.1% / −89.5% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Exit below $1,744.21 (−7.0%) | 36% 77/216 | +7.8% / +23.8% | −77.1% / −85.2% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | OUT | Feb 3, 2026 −10.7% | Enter above $2,911.55 (+55.2%) | 25% 5/20 | +19.5% / +29.7% | −54.6% / −69.1% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Sep 17, 2026 +2.8% | Enter above $1,870.51 (−0.3%) | 30% 33/110 | +10.4% / +23.7% | −55.1% / −85.2% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +9.6% | Enter above $1,947.80 (+3.8%) | 37% 31/83 | +15.5% / +22.5% | −69.8% / −89.5% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,742.65 (−7.1%) | 37% 55/148 | +7.7% / +24.6% | −74.4% / −89.5% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 +2.6% | Not on one close | 46% 117/254 | +12.5% / +24.6% | −52.6% / −89.5% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $1,787.54 (−4.7%) | 35% 165/468 | +14.8% / +24.8% | −59.3% / −89.5% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +6.9% | Enter above $1,946.84 (+3.8%) | 37% 66/177 | +10.2% / +24.9% | −62.5% / −89.5% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,758.47 (−6.3%) | 36% 157/434 | +2.7% / +24.5% | −78.7% / −89.5% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 6, 2026 +2.5% | Enter above $2,566.59 (+36.8%) | 39% 55/141 | +4.2% / +23.1% | −66.7% / −89.5% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Exit below $1,796.49 (−4.2%) | 41% 57/138 | +15.8% / +22.0% | −64.9% / −89.5% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $1,814.25 (−3.3%) | 32% 93/288 | −0.3% / +24.6% | −80.0% / −89.5% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Exit below $792.17 (−57.8%) | 37% 68/184 | +12.0% / +22.0% | −64.1% / −89.5% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.2% | Not on one close | 41% 84/207 | +12.3% / +23.8% | −71.5% / −85.2% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Exit below $1,778.10 (−5.2%) | 36% 53/149 | +14.6% / +19.9% | −54.6% / −87.2% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 +7.0% | Enter above $1,880.72 (+0.2%) | 29% 26/91 | +6.8% / +19.9% | −74.2% / −87.2% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $1,904.80 (+1.5%) | 39% 65/168 | +12.2% / +22.5% | −45.0% / −85.2% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Mar 6, 2023 +49.3% | Not on one close | 32% 13/40 | −2.6% / +22.0% | −54.0% / −89.5% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 +5.0% | Enter above $1,924.59 (+2.6%) | 43% 51/118 | +12.5% / +24.6% | −68.3% / −89.5% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $2,066.00 (+10.1%) | 30% 41/136 | +0.7% / +21.9% | −61.4% / −89.5% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 +2.6% | Enter above $2,066.00 (+10.1%) | 32% 30/94 | +4.2% / +21.9% | −53.0% / −89.5% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 +5.0% | Enter above $2,006.60 (+7.0%) | 32% 30/94 | +4.5% / +19.9% | −38.3% / −87.2% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +6.9% | Not on one close | 36% 42/116 | +4.6% / +24.6% | −67.8% / −89.5% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Aug 6, 2026 +2.5% | Enter above $1,955.58 (+4.2%) | 41% 58/142 | +6.3% / +21.9% | −42.5% / −89.5% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $1,956.86 (+4.3%) | 35% 70/200 | +7.1% / +24.6% | −50.0% / −89.5% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 +2.6% | Enter above $1,900.24 (+1.3%) | 37% 64/172 | +13.1% / +24.7% | −55.6% / −89.5% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,742.24 (−7.1%) | 36% 59/163 | +14.4% / +24.6% | −64.3% / −89.5% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +6.9% | Enter above $2,087.68 (+11.3%) | 40% 65/164 | +16.2% / +24.9% | −71.8% / −89.5% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $1,878.66 (+0.1%) | 31% 85/275 | +16.7% / +22.5% | −61.8% / −89.5% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Jul 15, 2026 +1.8% | Not on one close | 29% 54/188 | −0.1% / +24.6% | −44.9% / −89.5% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −2.6% | Not on one close | 42% 51/122 | +6.6% / +21.9% | −29.7% / −89.5% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,679.02 (−10.5%) | 35% 207/599 | +5.1% / +24.4% | −73.5% / −89.5% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 6, 2026 +2.5% | Not on one close | 32% 12/38 | +4.4% / +23.8% | −29.1% / −85.2% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | OUT | Feb 27, 2026 +6.7% | Enter above $2,413.18 (+28.6%) | 29% 6/21 | +8.2% / +26.0% | −70.7% / −73.1% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | OUT | Mar 31, 2026 +8.5% | Not on one close | 21% 4/19 | +7.3% / +26.0% | −74.6% / −73.1% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Jan 30, 2026 −12.7% | Enter above $2,683.31 (+43.0%) | 37% 10/27 | +11.0% / +26.0% | −67.5% / −73.1% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,798.41 (−4.1%) | 22% 23/105 | +9.2% / +19.4% | −48.2% / −87.2% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | Nov 28, 2025 −9.4% | Enter above $2,200.57 (+17.3%) | 26% 9/34 | +3.3% / +24.6% | −60.7% / −77.6% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $1,850.10 (−1.4%) | 22% 23/105 | +7.5% / +23.8% | −66.2% / −85.2% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +1.0% | Exit below $1,616.49 (−13.8%) | 33% 125/380 | +8.5% / +22.0% | −70.8% / −89.5% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,836.73 (−2.1%) | 32% 193/611 | +10.4% / +22.0% | −69.5% / −89.5% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +1.0% | Exit below $1,190.36 (−36.5%) | 39% 107/275 | +9.1% / +22.7% | −65.0% / −89.5% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +4.7% | Enter above $1,887.62 (+0.6%) | 57% 4/7 | +23.9% / +27.5% | −58.4% / −69.1% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $1,900.13 (+1.3%) | 27% 146/538 | −0.8% / +24.6% | −74.5% / −89.5% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Exit below $1,124.10 (−40.1%) | 39% 90/232 | +11.5% / +19.9% | −62.9% / −87.2% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $1,806.55 (−3.7%) | 40% 56/140 | +13.0% / +19.9% | −57.3% / −87.2% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +8.5% | Enter above $1,789.48 (−4.6%) | 39% 27/70 | +15.0% / +26.0% | −51.2% / −73.1% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | OUT | Mar 31, 2026 +8.5% | Not on one close | 17% 3/18 | +7.0% / +23.1% | −74.6% / −69.1% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | Mar 31, 2026 +8.5% | Not on one close | 25% 4/16 | +10.4% / +26.0% | −70.9% / −73.1% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.2% | Exit below $1,623.34 (−13.5%) | 33% 93/286 | +4.6% / +23.8% | −72.3% / −85.2% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jul 15, 2026 +1.8% | Not on one close | 63% 24/38 | +10.2% / +24.9% | −79.9% / −89.5% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 +3.1% | Not on one close | 61% 164/269 | +4.6% / +22.8% | −32.1% / −82.7% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Not on one close | 63% 209/331 | +9.8% / +22.8% | −44.8% / −82.7% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Buy below $1,645.19 (−12.3%) | 59% 95/162 | +2.7% / +24.6% | −79.5% / −89.5% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Not on one close | 60% 83/138 | +5.9% / +24.5% | −83.4% / −89.5% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Exit below $1,873.36 (−0.1%) | 61% 151/249 | +7.7% / +24.8% | −85.1% / −89.5% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +5.0% | Not on one close | 59% 42/71 | +16.1% / +24.3% | −73.3% / −89.5% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | May 27, 2008 +4,355.8% | Sell above $4,431.06 (+136.2%) | – | +22.8% / +22.8% | −82.7% / −82.7% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Feb 15, 2023 +61.8% | Buy below $1,724.23 (−8.1%) | 67% 20/30 | +5.0% / +23.8% | −10.6% / −85.2% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,820.08 (−3.0%) | 47% 127/271 | +11.5% / +21.9% | −87.0% / −89.5% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 +2.7% | Exit below $1,855.57 (−1.1%) | 59% 227/385 | +8.3% / +21.9% | −65.7% / −89.5% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Sell above $1,876.02 (0.0%) | 57% 915/1599 | +1.7% / +24.0% | −52.7% / −89.5% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 27, 2025 −17.8% | Not on one close | 60% 57/95 | +8.3% / +22.8% | −44.0% / −82.7% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,868.38 (−0.4%) | 39% 356/913 | +5.8% / +22.0% | −79.9% / −89.5% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +8.5% | Sell above $1,763.38 (−6.0%) | 50% 56/113 | +10.9% / +23.2% | −81.2% / −89.5% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Not on one close | 28% 184/661 | +12.2% / +24.6% | −68.4% / −89.5% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.2% | Not on one close | 38% 68/178 | +10.2% / +24.6% | −70.5% / −89.5% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Mar 4, 2026 +6.0% | Not on one close | 59% 24/41 | +9.6% / +24.9% | −82.7% / −89.5% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Nov 8, 2024 +0.2% | Not on one close | 33% 27/81 | +14.4% / +24.9% | −69.1% / −74.4% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $1,791.51 (−4.5%) | 29% 160/554 | +9.7% / +23.8% | −67.0% / −89.5% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.2% | Exit below $1,616.46 (−13.8%) | 35% 106/307 | +12.5% / +24.6% | −65.2% / −89.5% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +8.5% | Exit below $1,876.02 (0.0%) | 33% 192/579 | +0.4% / +24.6% | −79.0% / −89.5% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +9.6% | Not on one close | 35% 34/97 | +9.0% / +25.8% | −63.3% / −73.3% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Not on one close | 38% 292/769 | +9.2% / +22.0% | −64.6% / −85.4% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Sep 1, 2026 −4.5% | Exit below $1,875.69 (0.0%) | 42% 45/107 | +1.7% / +24.6% | −74.3% / −89.5% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | IN | May 14, 2026 +16.7% | Exit below $1,840.18 (−1.9%) | 37% 37/101 | +3.6% / +24.8% | −61.5% / −89.5% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Not on one close | 50% 18/36 | +1.9% / +24.6% | −30.9% / −89.5% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +4.7% | Buys Oct 30 | 66% 25/38 | +20.1% / +24.0% | −60.9% / −89.5% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Window opens Apr 1 | 62% 24/39 | +14.6% / +22.0% | −75.1% / −89.5% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 29, 2026 +6.2% | Window opens Oct 16 | 59% 22/37 | +17.8% / +22.0% | −71.9% / −89.5% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 −12.7% | Buys Dec 23 | 42% 16/38 | +3.9% / +24.0% | −12.5% / −89.5% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Buys Oct 29 | 54% 248/460 | +14.0% / +24.0% | −51.5% / −89.5% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +8.5% | Sells Jun 30 | 44% 4/9 | +8.8% / +24.0% | −30.3% / −89.5% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −5.2% | Buys Nov 24 | 48% 169/350 | +1.8% / +24.0% | −17.0% / −89.5% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +121.7% | Not on one close | 39% 7/18 | +6.7% / +19.4% | −75.9% / −88.1% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.9% | Sells Oct 16 | 51% 1013/2001 | +26.3% / +24.0% | −78.6% / −89.5% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +2.0% | Buys Oct 27 | 49% 149/304 | +3.2% / +24.0% | −20.9% / −89.5% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +10.6% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 236/474 | +12.1% / +24.0% | −65.8% / −89.5% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Aug 10, 2007 | Always in | – | +24.7% | −89.5% |
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
Internet Retail · MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to users and other users of its e-commerce platform.
| Size and valuation | ||
| Market cap | $95.1B | What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding. |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $35.2B | Total sales. The market values it at 2.7× sales. |
| P/E ratio | 51.0× | Buyers pay $51 for each $1 of the last year's profit. |
| Forward P/E | 33.3× | Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow. |
| Price to book | 12.1× | Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share. |
| Profit and growth | ||
| Profit margin | 7.6% | Keeps 8¢ of each dollar of sales as profit. |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | +41.7% | The last four quarters' sales against the four before. |
| Earnings growth | −9.2% | Same comparison for profit. |
| Return on equity | 23.8% | Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business. |
| Free cash flow | $353M | Cash left after running and investing in the business. |
| Balance sheet | ||
| Total equity | $6.7B | What it owns minus what it owes. |
|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $13.2B | Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest. |
| Cash | $5.7B | Cash and short-term investments on hand. |
| Debt to equity | 1.96× | Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn. |
| Interest cover | 18.8× | Interest is easily paid from profit. |
| Wall Street | ||
| Average analyst target | $2,270.01 | 21% above the close, from 26 analysts (range $1,750.00 to $2,800.00). |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus rating | Buy | Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare. |
P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.
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