Consumer & retail

Marriott (MAR)

$371.50 +0.6% on the day·+42.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy68 / 100

Buy: 68 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−8% from its 1-year high) scores 75 and lifts it; Trend (+6% vs 200-day) scores 61 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	MAR	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	67%	67	40	26.8
Off the high	−8% from its 1-year high	75	30	22.5
Trend	+6% vs 200-day	61	30	18.3

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for MAR

Factor	MAR	Points	What it is
Plays in	67%	67	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+3% · 25 analysts	32	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.2 · buy	39	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	38.4×	27	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	28.2×	13	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.76	40	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	3.6×	50	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	negative book	0	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	0.6%	17	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	+9%	36	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+5%	24	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	10%	47	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	–	–	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equity	negative equity	0	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−8% from its 1-year high	75	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+6% vs 200-day	61	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+42%	72	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	4/10 · moderate	60	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on MAR

67 of the 100 plays hold MAR right now.
The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 6% above its 200-day average and 8% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes and owes more than it owns (negative equity).
Analysts' average 12-month target is $380.96, 3% above the close (25 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in67 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.06×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+6%). Higher than on 46% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MAR now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn MAR: right 13 of 36 · Out since Mar 2, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn MAR: right 34 of 93 · Out since Sep 1, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn MAR: right 14 of 28 · In since Dec 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn MAR: right 124 of 190 · Out since Sep 21, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn MAR: right 20 of 36 · Out since May 14, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn MAR: right 73 of 117 · Out since Aug 25, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn MAR: right 27 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

MAR, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved MAR lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 28+2.6% against the S&P 5001.4× a normal day

MAR +1.9%, the S&P 500 −0.8% that session; +2.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MAR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MAR starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.8%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 23+1.8% against the S&P 5000.9× a normal day

MAR +1.0%, the S&P 500 −0.8% that session; +5.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Mon Sep 14+2.2% against the S&P 5001.2× a normal day

MAR +1.7%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; +1.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MAR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MAR starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Next earnings report

Mon Nov 2, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.83.

Over its last 12 reports, MAR's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±3.9% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 4 times.
MAR after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 11 of 25 times (median −0.2%).
MAR after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 5 of 8 times (median −1.0%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on MAR

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following26 of 30 in Breakouts & channels10 of 15 in Momentum15 of 17 in Mean reversion4 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on MAR went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +8.4%	Exit below $356.58 (−4.0%)	26% 160/624	+5.6% / +13.5%	−55.6% / −75.6%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below $355.23 (−4.4%)	28% 35/124	+7.4% / +13.5%	−38.0% / −75.6%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below $354.55 (−4.6%)	22% 83/382	+5.3% / +13.5%	−48.7% / −75.6%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above $912.01 (+145.5%)	17% 34/201	+2.3% / +13.5%	−56.9% / −75.6%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $361.03 (−2.8%)	36% 25/70	+12.1% / +13.5%	−33.3% / −75.6%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Aug 7, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above $371.02 (−0.1%)	30% 29/97	+8.6% / +13.5%	−47.1% / −75.6%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +22.6%	Exit below $350.44 (−5.7%)	32% 12/38	+10.2% / +13.5%	−41.1% / −75.6%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $350.35 (−5.7%)	17% 25/148	+10.5% / +13.5%	−40.2% / −75.6%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $351.82 (−5.3%)	42% 11/26	+9.7% / +13.5%	−63.3% / −75.6%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $350.35 (−5.7%)	22% 19/88	+9.7% / +13.5%	−37.8% / −75.6%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $318.59 (−14.2%)	35% 49/140	+6.6% / +13.5%	−55.6% / −75.6%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +9.6%	Exit below $356.85 (−3.9%)	25% 198/791	+4.2% / +13.5%	−58.2% / −75.6%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +11.2%	Exit below $265.84 (−28.4%)	39% 103/267	+7.3% / +13.5%	−59.5% / −75.6%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	May 14, 2025 +38.1%	Not on one close	22% 7/32	+7.9% / +13.3%	−48.6% / −75.6%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below $324.65 (−12.6%)	27% 44/162	+1.3% / +13.5%	−62.6% / −75.6%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below $345.47 (−7.0%)	30% 36/120	+2.4% / +13.5%	−56.4% / −75.6%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below $349.62 (−5.9%)	33% 58/174	+5.4% / +13.5%	−52.3% / −75.6%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.5%	Not on one close	39% 134/340	+0.7% / +13.5%	−66.4% / −75.6%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $332.80 (−10.4%)	32% 179/566	+3.5% / +13.5%	−53.6% / −75.6%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +2.7%	Exit below $320.91 (−13.6%)	35% 77/218	+4.4% / +13.5%	−48.8% / −75.6%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below $356.30 (−4.1%)	36% 184/511	+3.0% / +13.5%	−57.6% / −75.6%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 25, 2026 −1.8%	Enter above $375.37 (+1.0%)	34% 57/167	+4.5% / +13.5%	−23.0% / −75.6%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.6%	Exit below $297.69 (−19.9%)	25% 53/208	+3.6% / +13.5%	−58.7% / −75.6%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.5%	Exit below $351.25 (−5.5%)	37% 80/214	+7.0% / +13.5%	−58.1% / −75.6%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.5%	Not on one close	28% 69/246	+3.9% / +13.5%	−58.3% / −75.6%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +8.4%	Not on one close	38% 86/227	+8.3% / +13.5%	−51.5% / −75.6%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.6%	Exit below $306.18 (−17.6%)	28% 51/184	+5.2% / +13.5%	−53.8% / −75.6%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below $318.98 (−14.1%)	31% 37/118	+5.3% / +13.5%	−49.6% / −75.6%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $352.29 (−5.2%)	34% 66/195	+3.4% / +13.5%	−58.3% / −75.6%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Mar 2, 2026 +12.9%	Not on one close	36% 13/36	+1.5% / +13.5%	−19.2% / −75.6%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.6%	Exit below $332.35 (−10.5%)	36% 49/136	+3.3% / +13.5%	−52.4% / −75.6%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jun 22, 2026 −3.1%	Enter above $383.45 (+3.2%)	26% 43/164	+0.8% / +13.5%	−44.0% / −75.6%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 13, 2026 +2.6%	Enter above $383.45 (+3.2%)	26% 26/101	+2.1% / +13.5%	−48.3% / −75.6%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $347.63 (−6.4%)	26% 30/116	+2.8% / +13.5%	−40.7% / −75.6%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +8.4%	Exit below $352.29 (−5.2%)	26% 36/136	−3.5% / +13.5%	−75.2% / −75.6%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $356.91 (−3.9%)	34% 55/163	+3.3% / +13.5%	−36.0% / −75.6%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.6%	Exit below $355.26 (−4.4%)	36% 76/213	+4.6% / +13.5%	−33.8% / −75.6%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +2.7%	Exit below $351.33 (−5.4%)	33% 70/209	+2.3% / +13.5%	−54.0% / −75.6%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below $351.55 (−5.4%)	31% 64/204	+2.7% / +13.5%	−55.6% / −75.6%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +11.0%	Enter above $411.57 (+10.8%)	37% 34/93	+6.0% / +13.5%	−54.5% / −75.6%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $353.70 (−4.8%)	29% 99/338	+5.6% / +13.5%	−52.3% / −75.6%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $371.17 (−0.1%)	29% 68/231	+1.0% / +13.5%	−33.3% / −75.6%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 4, 2026 +7.8%	Not on one close	33% 38/116	−0.2% / +13.5%	−25.4% / −75.6%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.8%	Exit below $356.36 (−4.1%)	33% 227/698	+1.8% / +13.5%	−71.8% / −75.6%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Apr 2, 2024 +53.5%	Not on one close	32% 9/28	+1.8% / +13.5%	−19.8% / −75.6%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +22.6%	Exit below $267.97 (−27.9%)	21% 7/34	+6.1% / +13.5%	−48.1% / −75.6%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +20.5%	Not on one close	50% 14/28	+9.1% / +13.5%	−62.2% / −75.6%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below $297.96 (−19.8%)	38% 16/42	+6.1% / +13.5%	−58.7% / −75.6%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 3, 2026 +7.3%	Not on one close	19% 34/177	+5.4% / +13.5%	−33.0% / −75.6%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +22.6%	Exit below $341.47 (−8.1%)	33% 6/18	+8.7% / +13.5%	−38.1% / −75.6%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −0.2%	Enter above $378.80 (+2.0%)	34% 45/133	+7.0% / +13.5%	−40.5% / −75.6%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +10.2%	Exit below $340.13 (−8.4%)	37% 160/433	+7.1% / +13.5%	−58.3% / −75.6%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below $360.20 (−3.0%)	32% 227/716	+6.6% / +13.5%	−58.3% / −75.6%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $297.38 (−20.0%)	41% 133/321	+7.2% / +13.5%	−47.2% / −75.6%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Nov 30, 2020 +205.4%	Not on one close	44% 4/9	+12.0% / +13.8%	−63.3% / −75.6%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below $363.64 (−2.1%)	30% 188/631	+1.9% / +13.5%	−53.1% / −75.6%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $171.90 (−53.7%)	38% 106/279	+3.0% / +13.5%	−61.2% / −75.6%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.6%	Exit below $295.42 (−20.5%)	27% 55/206	+3.6% / +13.5%	−56.6% / −75.6%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $352.43 (−5.1%)	26% 21/80	+8.6% / +13.5%	−46.0% / −75.6%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +20.5%	Not on one close	39% 11/28	+5.1% / +12.4%	−62.2% / −75.6%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +8.7%	Not on one close	44% 16/36	+8.4% / +13.5%	−62.2% / −75.6%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +8.4%	Exit below $311.49 (−16.2%)	36% 119/331	+6.4% / +13.5%	−56.8% / −75.6%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 +10.5%	Not on one close	55% 18/33	+4.9% / +13.5%	−73.6% / −75.6%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +10.4%	Not on one close	64% 223/346	+6.0% / +13.5%	−21.3% / −75.6%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +9.1%	Not on one close	65% 258/397	+4.9% / +13.5%	−66.2% / −75.6%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +8.4%	Buy below $333.55 (−10.2%)	65% 124/190	+5.9% / +13.5%	−59.2% / −75.6%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +5.5%	Not on one close	67% 122/182	+9.9% / +13.5%	−66.4% / −75.6%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +4.5%	Not on one close	60% 166/278	+4.6% / +13.5%	−69.0% / −75.6%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +4.7%	Not on one close	62% 47/76	+10.5% / +13.5%	−50.1% / −75.6%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,637.2%	Sell above $846.78 (+127.9%)	–	+13.5% / +13.5%	−75.6% / −75.6%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2025 +61.3%	Buy below $331.73 (−10.7%)	61% 11/18	+3.6% / +13.5%	−8.6% / −75.6%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below $360.93 (−2.8%)	47% 148/316	+6.0% / +13.5%	−62.7% / −75.6%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 +10.2%	Not on one close	55% 235/425	+1.3% / +13.5%	−68.2% / −75.6%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Buy below $371.50 (0.0%)	56% 997/1790	−0.1% / +13.5%	−38.3% / −75.6%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +5.6%	Not on one close	69% 73/106	+10.7% / +13.5%	−25.0% / −75.6%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below $366.80 (−1.3%)	37% 405/1101	+2.0% / +13.5%	−70.5% / −75.6%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +4.5%	Buy below $362.84 (−2.3%)	60% 77/129	+6.0% / +13.5%	−61.6% / −75.6%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +9.6%	Not on one close	25% 192/757	+4.9% / +13.5%	−67.1% / −75.6%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.6%	Not on one close	39% 79/202	+4.4% / +13.5%	−58.3% / −75.6%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	May 14, 2025 +38.1%	Not on one close	56% 20/36	+4.6% / +13.5%	−73.6% / −75.6%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jul 10, 2026 −1.0%	Not on one close	42% 28/66	+10.0% / +13.6%	−67.7% / −75.6%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +9.6%	Exit below $362.70 (−2.4%)	27% 187/702	+6.9% / +13.5%	−60.4% / −75.6%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $310.83 (−16.3%)	35% 120/346	+5.0% / +13.5%	−57.8% / −75.6%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +9.6%	Not on one close	36% 213/596	+6.9% / +13.5%	−59.9% / −75.6%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $369.01 (−0.7%)	33% 31/94	+7.5% / +13.6%	−62.2% / −75.6%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $369.94 (−0.4%)	35% 336/953	+2.5% / +13.5%	−56.4% / −75.6%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +3.8%	Not on one close	62% 73/117	+16.2% / +13.5%	−50.5% / −75.6%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 3, 2026 +7.3%	Not on one close	44% 43/98	+9.4% / +13.5%	−32.5% / −75.6%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 25, 2025 +41.2%	Not on one close	45% 27/60	+1.8% / +13.5%	−26.6% / −75.6%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +3.1%	Buys Oct 30	63% 27/43	+14.2% / +13.5%	−61.3% / −75.6%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	58% 25/43	+12.3% / +13.5%	−61.3% / −75.6%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 +4.1%	Window opens Oct 16	63% 27/43	+13.8% / +13.5%	−61.3% / −75.6%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +20.2%	Buys Dec 23	34% 15/44	+1.6% / +13.5%	−11.1% / −75.6%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.4%	Buys Oct 29	48% 252/526	+0.7% / +13.5%	−51.4% / −75.6%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +4.5%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+4.1% / +13.5%	−30.8% / −75.6%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +10.4%	Buys Nov 24	50% 201/400	+3.4% / +13.5%	−8.9% / −75.6%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +158.7%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+6.8% / +13.5%	−64.1% / −75.6%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.6%	Sells Oct 16	54% 1224/2284	+11.6% / +13.5%	−66.4% / −75.6%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +10.9%	Buys Oct 27	49% 169/348	+4.4% / +13.5%	−12.4% / −75.6%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.5%	Sells Oct 16	49% 267/541	+4.9% / +13.5%	−64.4% / −75.6%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+13.5%	−75.6%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate4 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
It owes more than it owns (negative equity).

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Dec 2010

MAR−70%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Feb 2021

MAR−57%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Aug 2022

MAR−19%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.96Moves about 1.0× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture61%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 61% as much on average.
Two-year change+44%
From 52-week high−8%
EquityNegativeOwes more than it owns.
Net debt / EBITDA3.6×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover5.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Lodging · Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchising, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company operates properties under the JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$96.9B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$7.4B	Total sales. The market values it at 13.1× sales.
P/E ratio	38.4×	Buyers pay $38 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	28.2×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	9.6%	Keeps 10¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+4.7%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+8.9%	Same comparison for profit.
Free cash flow	$2.1B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	−$3.8B	Negative: it owes more than it owns.
Total debt	$17.8B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$462M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Interest cover	5.2×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$380.96	3% above the close, from 25 analysts (range $280.00 to $425.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.56%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

MAR: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Consumer & retail: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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