Semiconductors

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

$268.73 +1.1% on the day·+201.1% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy70 / 100

Buy: 70 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+55% vs 200-day) scores 99 and lifts it; Off the high (−15% from its 1-year high) scores 50 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	MRVL	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	63%	63	40	25.2
Off the high	−15% from its 1-year high	50	30	15.0
Trend	+55% vs 200-day	99	30	29.7

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for MRVL

Factor	MRVL	Points	What it is
Plays in	63%	63	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+26% · 44 analysts	65	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.4 · strong buy	82	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	89.0×	10	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Forward P/E	36.9×	7	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.39	50	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	24.9×	4	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Price to book	12.7×	13	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Dividend yield	0.1%	1	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Earnings growth	+50%	72	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+31%	74	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Profit margin	28%	79	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Return on equity	14%	57	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Debt to equity	0.27×	69	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-08-01.
Off the high	−15% from its 1-year high	50	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+55% vs 200-day	99	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+201%	99	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	5/10 · high	50	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on MRVL

63 of the 100 plays hold MRVL right now.
The trend-following, breakout, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 55% above its 200-day average and 15% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 2.2× its index and fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $337.99, 26% above the close (44 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in63 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.55×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+55%). Higher than on 98% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MRVL now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn MRVL: right 15 of 40 · Out since Jul 2, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn MRVL: right 60 of 177 · Out since Oct 12, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn MRVL: right 12 of 34 · In since Mar 31, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn MRVL: right 138 of 206 · Out since Aug 4, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn MRVL: right 23 of 40 · Out since Oct 10, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn MRVL: right 66 of 131 · Out since Mar 11, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn MRVL: right 26 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

MRVL, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved MRVL lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Oct 6+5.2% against the S&P 5001.1× a normal day

MRVL +5.8%, the S&P 500 +0.6% that session; −2.4% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Guidance raisedYahoo Finance · Oct 6, 11:50 am ET
Marvell stock surges after company raises 2028 revenue outlook to $20 billion
After guidance-raised headlines, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 45% of the time (9 of 20 on 13 stocks; median move −0.2%). Low predictability Early read
MRVL after guidance-raised headlines: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 1 of 3 times (median −0.6%).
HeadlineTradingKey · Oct 6, 9:47 am ET
Marvell Technology Inc Stock (MRVL) Opened Up by 9.96% on Oct 6: Drivers Behind the Movement
Guidance raisedReuters · Oct 6, 4:56 pm ETafter that close
Marvell raises 2028 revenue forecast on strong AI data center demand
After guidance-raised headlines, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 45% of the time (9 of 20 on 13 stocks; median move −0.2%). Low predictability Early read
MRVL after guidance-raised headlines: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 1 of 3 times (median −0.6%).
HeadlineBarron's · Oct 6, 4:10 pm ETafter that close
Marvell Stock Rises After CEO Announces Huge Long-Term Revenue Target
HeadlineYahoo Finance · Oct 6, 4:02 pm ETafter that close
Marvell Technology Targets Up to $90B Revenue by 2031 as AI Demand Accelerates

Mon Sep 14−6.8% against the S&P 5001.3× a normal day

MRVL −7.3%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; +3.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MRVL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MRVL starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved −6.4% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Fri Sep 4+7.4% against the S&P 5001.3× a normal day

MRVL +7.0%, the S&P 500 −0.4% that session; +14.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MRVL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MRVL starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.4%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved +3.7% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on MRVL

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following27 of 30 in Breakouts & channels11 of 15 in Momentum12 of 17 in Mean reversion2 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on MRVL went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +17.0%	Exit below $261.53 (−2.7%)	28% 169/594	+8.2% / +14.3%	−61.7% / −86.5%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +22.9%	Exit below $224.45 (−16.5%)	37% 34/92	+17.0% / +14.3%	−49.2% / −86.5%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +17.0%	Exit below $245.57 (−8.6%)	23% 81/352	+9.2% / +14.3%	−71.9% / −86.5%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +11.6%	Exit below $239.94 (−10.7%)	26% 41/158	+13.1% / +14.3%	−40.0% / −86.5%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +229.3%	Exit below $211.23 (−21.4%)	34% 23/68	+15.2% / +14.3%	−61.1% / −86.5%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +229.3%	Exit below $211.23 (−21.4%)	22% 20/90	+11.2% / +14.3%	−65.0% / −86.5%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +220.4%	Exit below $176.71 (−34.2%)	40% 12/30	+11.6% / +14.3%	−76.7% / −86.5%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Mar 6, 2026 +200.3%	Exit below $173.94 (−35.3%)	15% 23/152	+12.0% / +14.3%	−55.9% / −86.5%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Oct 24, 2025 +220.0%	Not on one close	54% 13/24	+12.0% / +14.3%	−69.8% / −86.5%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Mar 6, 2026 +200.3%	Exit below $173.94 (−35.3%)	17% 16/92	+9.9% / +14.3%	−51.8% / −86.5%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +24.1%	Exit below $193.35 (−28.0%)	37% 49/132	+16.3% / +14.3%	−64.1% / −86.5%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +21.2%	Exit below $262.64 (−2.3%)	24% 199/822	−3.3% / +14.3%	−84.9% / −86.5%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Aug 12, 2026 +23.8%	Exit below $214.38 (−20.2%)	39% 98/250	+4.6% / +14.3%	−81.2% / −86.5%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2025 +221.1%	Not on one close	36% 10/28	+11.7% / +14.2%	−58.5% / −86.5%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +14.4%	Exit below $173.05 (−35.6%)	30% 42/138	+10.7% / +14.3%	−49.9% / −86.5%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Exit below $221.80 (−17.5%)	32% 36/112	+12.1% / +14.3%	−48.3% / −86.5%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +14.7%	Exit below $240.72 (−10.4%)	40% 57/144	+12.8% / +14.3%	−63.1% / −86.5%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Not on one close	40% 117/290	+10.2% / +14.3%	−66.6% / −86.5%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $247.95 (−7.7%)	37% 230/615	+2.7% / +14.3%	−72.1% / −86.5%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Exit below $213.58 (−20.5%)	39% 80/206	+10.6% / +14.3%	−55.7% / −86.5%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $295.25 (+9.9%)	40% 196/489	+7.5% / +14.3%	−75.1% / −86.5%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −5.6%	Exit below $243.61 (−9.3%)	31% 50/160	+0.9% / +14.3%	−60.1% / −86.5%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +14.4%	Exit below $142.66 (−46.9%)	34% 57/168	+12.3% / +14.3%	−54.9% / −86.5%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +13.8%	Exit below $264.27 (−1.7%)	36% 105/288	+10.3% / +14.3%	−64.7% / −86.5%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +17.0%	Not on one close	33% 72/218	+13.4% / +14.3%	−65.2% / −86.5%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below $260.80 (−3.0%)	37% 95/259	0.0% / +14.3%	−77.5% / −86.5%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +14.4%	Exit below $154.91 (−42.4%)	32% 55/170	+11.3% / +14.3%	−61.0% / −86.5%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 +13.3%	Not on one close	38% 36/94	+15.7% / +14.3%	−47.9% / −86.5%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +17.0%	Exit below $220.87 (−17.8%)	34% 74/218	+6.3% / +14.3%	−67.3% / −86.5%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jul 2, 2026 +9.6%	Not on one close	38% 15/40	0.0% / +14.3%	−34.0% / −86.5%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +14.7%	Exit below $224.53 (−16.4%)	34% 45/132	+6.5% / +14.3%	−71.8% / −86.5%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.5%	Exit below $248.45 (−7.5%)	32% 43/134	+8.1% / +14.3%	−52.7% / −86.5%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.5%	Exit below $231.75 (−13.8%)	36% 33/92	+9.9% / +14.3%	−43.7% / −86.5%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Exit below $239.02 (−11.1%)	29% 28/96	+7.6% / +14.3%	−54.9% / −86.5%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Exit below $200.58 (−25.4%)	47% 46/98	+13.2% / +14.3%	−43.6% / −86.5%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.5%	Exit below $262.31 (−2.4%)	30% 49/163	+2.0% / +14.3%	−59.7% / −86.5%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Exit below $264.89 (−1.4%)	36% 75/206	+3.9% / +14.3%	−61.4% / −86.5%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +14.7%	Exit below $255.21 (−5.0%)	33% 65/198	+5.9% / +14.3%	−74.7% / −86.5%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +23.0%	Exit below $238.22 (−11.4%)	37% 63/172	+9.4% / +14.3%	−63.7% / −86.5%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above $288.17 (+7.2%)	34% 60/177	+3.1% / +14.3%	−68.5% / −86.5%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +20.2%	Exit below $261.02 (−2.9%)	28% 94/336	+8.2% / +14.3%	−65.1% / −86.5%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Not on one close	24% 41/174	+0.3% / +14.3%	−37.0% / −86.5%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Jun 10, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	40% 52/131	+2.1% / +14.3%	−41.8% / −86.5%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 +28.7%	Exit below $256.83 (−4.4%)	35% 241/694	+1.7% / +14.3%	−83.5% / −86.5%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 15, 2025 +253.5%	Not on one close	31% 10/32	+2.0% / +14.3%	−30.6% / −86.5%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +171.6%	Exit below $97.04 (−63.9%)	54% 13/24	+11.1% / +14.5%	−66.0% / −86.5%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +171.6%	Not on one close	35% 12/34	+8.1% / +14.5%	−66.2% / −86.5%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +171.6%	Exit below $107.90 (−59.8%)	42% 10/24	+9.6% / +14.5%	−66.5% / −86.5%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jan 14, 2026 +231.2%	Buy $289.66–$309.04 (+7.8%)	25% 36/143	+10.1% / +14.3%	−40.6% / −86.5%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +43.3%	Enter above $300.47 (+11.8%)	37% 10/27	+8.2% / +14.3%	−48.3% / −86.5%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Mar 6, 2026 +200.3%	Exit below $231.81 (−13.7%)	31% 32/104	+14.5% / +14.3%	−49.1% / −86.5%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above $288.88 (+7.5%)	35% 158/449	+0.7% / +14.3%	−79.5% / −86.5%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above $276.32 (+2.8%)	29% 232/789	−1.3% / +14.3%	−83.7% / −86.5%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Exit below $280.31 (+4.3%)	39% 120/306	+3.5% / +14.3%	−80.9% / −86.5%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +229.3%	Not on one close	59% 10/17	+12.9% / +11.4%	−64.4% / −86.1%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $284.12 (+5.7%)	26% 159/601	−2.4% / +14.3%	−73.0% / −86.5%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +11.6%	Exit below $211.55 (−21.3%)	39% 104/270	+3.0% / +14.3%	−82.9% / −86.5%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +19.2%	Exit below $136.32 (−49.3%)	33% 55/168	+11.9% / +14.3%	−54.9% / −86.5%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +229.3%	Exit below $212.15 (−21.1%)	41% 32/78	+14.4% / +14.5%	−63.7% / −86.5%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +171.6%	Not on one close	34% 10/29	+8.9% / +15.6%	−63.7% / −76.7%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +171.6%	Not on one close	50% 17/34	+8.6% / +14.5%	−63.7% / −86.5%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +11.6%	Exit below $273.07 (+1.6%)	37% 128/344	+4.6% / +14.3%	−71.4% / −86.5%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2025 +226.9%	Not on one close	40% 12/30	+2.2% / +14.3%	−71.3% / −86.5%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +20.2%	Buy below $255.62 (−4.9%)	62% 182/292	+7.1% / +14.3%	−31.4% / −86.5%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Sell above $286.95 (+6.8%)	64% 234/367	+8.1% / +14.3%	−63.1% / −86.5%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 4, 2026 +23.0%	Buy below $238.35 (−11.3%)	67% 138/206	+8.8% / +14.3%	−66.0% / −86.5%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +3.8%	Not on one close	60% 101/168	+2.4% / +14.3%	−78.1% / −86.5%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	60% 172/288	+2.7% / +14.3%	−77.1% / −86.5%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −2.4%	Not on one close	52% 34/65	+1.7% / +14.3%	−82.5% / −86.5%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Jul 1, 2026 −1.2%	Sell above $420.42 (+56.4%)	100% 6/6	+15.6% / +14.3%	−86.5% / −86.5%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 +46.6%	Not on one close	74% 25/34	+5.5% / +14.3%	−21.8% / −86.5%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +22.8%	Not on one close	48% 163/341	+4.7% / +14.3%	−65.6% / −86.5%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +22.8%	Enter above $271.74 (+1.1%)	60% 259/434	+12.5% / +14.3%	−64.4% / −86.5%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.9%	Buy below $268.73 (0.0%)	57% 1103/1950	+9.3% / +14.3%	−50.4% / −86.5%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 7, 2026 +22.9%	Not on one close	60% 56/94	+5.6% / +14.3%	−58.5% / −86.5%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −5.6%	Not on one close	38% 391/1023	+0.7% / +14.3%	−84.4% / −86.5%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +27.0%	Buy below $269.48 (+0.3%)	65% 87/134	+6.1% / +14.3%	−78.8% / −86.5%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +17.0%	Not on one close	27% 196/722	+0.9% / +14.3%	−71.0% / −86.5%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	40% 89/225	+11.0% / +14.3%	−64.8% / −86.5%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Oct 10, 2025 +214.4%	Not on one close	57% 23/40	+6.5% / +14.3%	−53.1% / −86.5%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jan 21, 2026 +225.9%	Not on one close	29% 48/163	+2.6% / +14.3%	−76.7% / −86.5%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +11.6%	Exit below $261.33 (−2.8%)	29% 202/696	+1.2% / +14.3%	−75.0% / −86.5%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +11.6%	Exit below $241.74 (−10.0%)	34% 124/370	+4.2% / +14.3%	−62.8% / −86.5%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +4.4%	Not on one close	34% 221/650	−1.0% / +14.3%	−84.5% / −86.5%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2025 +248.8%	Not on one close	29% 38/130	+9.6% / +14.3%	−78.4% / −86.5%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −5.6%	Not on one close	35% 334/965	−3.7% / +14.3%	−80.6% / −86.5%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Mar 11, 2026 +197.4%	Not on one close	50% 66/131	+1.9% / +14.3%	−88.4% / −86.5%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 +328.4%	Enter above $283.78 (+5.6%)	34% 30/87	+4.7% / +14.3%	−56.3% / −86.5%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Nov 20, 2025 +251.0%	Not on one close	44% 16/36	+4.1% / +14.3%	−10.6% / −86.5%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +62.8%	Buys Oct 30	60% 26/43	+14.0% / +14.3%	−63.0% / −86.5%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 +75.5%	Enter above $298.35 (+11.0%)	58% 25/43	+10.7% / +14.3%	−71.8% / −86.5%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 7, 2026 +68.0%	Window opens Oct 16	60% 26/43	+10.3% / +14.3%	−61.0% / −86.5%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +198.3%	Buys Dec 23	50% 22/44	+1.7% / +14.3%	−18.8% / −86.5%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −0.9%	Buys Oct 29	54% 284/526	+10.3% / +14.3%	−35.6% / −86.5%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +1.7%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+2.9% / +14.3%	−48.5% / −86.5%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +20.2%	Buys Nov 24	52% 210/400	+5.0% / +14.3%	−18.7% / −86.5%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +635.5%	Not on one close	45% 9/20	+6.8% / +14.3%	−87.8% / −86.5%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Sells Oct 16	52% 1196/2284	+16.8% / +14.3%	−70.4% / −86.5%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +17.0%	Buys Oct 27	51% 176/348	+5.5% / +14.3%	−11.2% / −86.5%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.3%	Sells Oct 16	45% 244/541	+1.4% / +14.3%	−83.8% / −86.5%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+14.3%	−86.5%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh5 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt0/3
Run-up2/2

It moves about 2.2× its index.
It fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 265% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Dec 2009

MRVL−71%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Apr 2020

MRVL−32%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2024

MRVL−57%

S&P 500−25%

Beta2.20Moves about 2.2× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture−85%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -85% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+265%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−15%
Debt to equity0.37×
Net debt / EBITDA0.5×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover16.0×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Semiconductors · Marvell Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides data infrastructure semiconductor solutions and spanning the data center core to network edge in the United States, Argentina, China, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and internationally. The company develops and scales system-on-a-chip architectures, integrating analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing functionality.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$242B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$9.5B	Total sales. The market values it at 25.6× sales.
P/E ratio	89.0×	Buyers pay $89 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	36.9×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	12.7×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	27.9%	Keeps 28¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+30.6%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+50.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	14.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$2.4B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$14.3B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$5.3B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$3.9B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.37×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	16.0×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$337.99	26% above the close, from 44 analysts (range $210.00 to $450.00).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.09%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-08-01; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

MRVL: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Semiconductors: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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