Media & telecom

Netflix (NFLX)

$70.46 −0.2% on the day·−42.2% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Sell14 / 100

Sell: 14 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (24%) scores 24 and lifts it; Off the high (−43% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	NFLX	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	24%	24	40	9.6
Off the high	−43% from its 1-year high	0	30	0.0
Trend	−15% vs 200-day	14	30	4.2

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for NFLX

Factor	NFLX	Points	What it is
Plays in	24%	24	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+31% · 45 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.8 · buy	61	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	loss	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	18.5×	39	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.22	58	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	6.1×	28	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	9.7×	18	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	−139%	1	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+16%	55	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	28%	80	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	45%	92	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.47×	53	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−43% from its 1-year high	0	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−15% vs 200-day	14	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−42%	6	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on NFLX

24 of the 100 plays hold NFLX right now.
The trend-following, breakout, momentum and volume plays mostly say out.
It closed 15% below its 200-day average and 43% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $92.06, 31% above the close (45 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in24 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.85×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−15%). Higher than on 16% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about NFLX now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn NFLX: right 35 of 70 · Out since Jan 3, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn NFLX: right 55 of 148 · In since Aug 19, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn NFLX: right 13 of 30 · Out since Apr 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn NFLX: right 101 of 163 · In since Sep 18, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn NFLX: right 36 of 50 · In since Jun 26, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn NFLX: right 70 of 128 · In since Jan 23, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn NFLX: right 23 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

NFLX, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved NFLX lately

Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Sep 18−4.8% against the S&P 5002.0× a normal day

NFLX −4.7%, the S&P 500 +0.2% that session; −5.6% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

DowngradeAnalyst rating · Sep 18, 7:28 am ET
Wells Fargo downgraded it to Underweight from Equal-Weight. Target $57.00, from $80.00.
After downgrades, stocks did worse than their index at the first close after the news 78% of the time (497 of 636 on 155 stocks; median move −1.4%). High predictability
NFLX after downgrades: behind its index at the first close after the news 11 of 11 times (median −1.2%).

Fri Sep 4−5.0% against the S&P 5002.1× a normal day

NFLX −5.3%, the S&P 500 −0.4% that session; −5.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NFLX was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NFLX starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.4%. The 9 other Media & telecom stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Tue Oct 20, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.82.

Over its last 12 reports, NFLX's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±8.6% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 5 times.
NFLX after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 12 of 26 times (median −1.7%).
NFLX after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 8 of 14 times (median −2.9%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on NFLX

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following2 of 30 in Breakouts & channels2 of 15 in Momentum2 of 17 in Mean reversion10 of 15 in Volume & money flow2 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on NFLX went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −9.6%	Enter above $71.44 (+1.4%)	28% 151/533	+24.3% / +31.9%	−53.9% / −82.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above $77.13 (+9.5%)	30% 29/98	+26.2% / +31.9%	−54.3% / −82.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −9.6%	Enter above $73.87 (+4.8%)	28% 74/268	+30.7% / +31.9%	−49.0% / −82.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 22, 2025 −36.9%	Not on one close	17% 35/204	+10.6% / +32.4%	−62.9% / −82.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 24, 2025 −35.6%	Enter above $173.88 (+146.8%)	30% 15/50	+32.3% / +31.9%	−48.5% / −82.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 24, 2025 −35.6%	Enter above $96.42 (+36.8%)	31% 22/70	+27.8% / +31.9%	−52.4% / −82.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −37.0%	Enter above $83.25 (+18.2%)	32% 9/28	+30.4% / +31.9%	−64.7% / −82.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Apr 17, 2026 −27.6%	Enter above $83.17 (+18.0%)	19% 19/102	+32.7% / +31.9%	−55.3% / −82.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Dec 5, 2025 −29.7%	Not on one close	42% 10/24	+26.9% / +31.9%	−59.6% / −82.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Nov 19, 2025 −35.9%	Not on one close	18% 15/84	+23.3% / +31.9%	−55.6% / −82.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −1.0%	Enter above $85.53 (+21.4%)	37% 50/136	+19.2% / +31.9%	−61.5% / −82.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $70.49 (+0.0%)	27% 196/739	+18.7% / +31.9%	−66.9% / −82.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −9.0%	Enter above $79.76 (+13.2%)	35% 89/255	+12.0% / +31.9%	−63.1% / −82.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Dec 17, 2025 −25.7%	Not on one close	35% 9/26	+22.9% / +33.9%	−57.6% / −82.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −6.4%	Enter above $110.98 (+57.5%)	32% 42/130	+23.6% / +31.9%	−51.1% / −82.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −1.9%	Not on one close	36% 37/102	+27.6% / +31.9%	−56.1% / −82.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −7.3%	Enter above $72.38 (+2.7%)	40% 61/153	+24.7% / +31.9%	−47.2% / −82.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −12.3%	Not on one close	42% 115/272	+18.6% / +31.9%	−52.1% / −82.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −8.2%	Enter above $72.79 (+3.3%)	35% 181/523	+16.6% / +31.9%	−58.7% / −82.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $81.02 (+15.0%)	37% 74/201	+20.2% / +31.9%	−67.8% / −82.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −1.6%	Exit below $67.27 (−4.5%)	40% 187/462	+24.4% / +31.9%	−44.0% / −82.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Apr 17, 2026 −27.6%	Enter above $84.11 (+19.4%)	32% 60/186	+18.8% / +31.9%	−52.8% / −82.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −6.4%	Enter above $89.25 (+26.7%)	34% 53/158	+26.5% / +31.9%	−54.6% / −82.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $67.49 (−4.2%)	37% 101/276	+17.5% / +31.9%	−54.9% / −82.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −8.2%	Enter above $73.65 (+4.5%)	36% 66/185	+30.0% / +31.9%	−56.1% / −82.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −8.2%	Enter above $71.62 (+1.6%)	35% 79/227	+16.7% / +31.9%	−61.7% / −82.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −6.4%	Enter above $86.97 (+23.4%)	33% 49/148	+24.3% / +31.9%	−51.3% / −82.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $115.18 (+63.5%)	34% 35/102	+26.4% / +31.9%	−54.9% / −82.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −9.0%	Not on one close	33% 71/217	+3.3% / +31.9%	−78.5% / −82.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jan 3, 2025 −20.0%	Not on one close	50% 35/70	+6.7% / +31.9%	−27.5% / −82.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $77.80 (+10.4%)	36% 45/125	+24.5% / +31.9%	−53.9% / −82.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above $77.80 (+10.4%)	32% 51/160	+11.8% / +31.9%	−47.8% / −82.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −8.2%	Enter above $83.60 (+18.6%)	34% 35/104	+15.1% / +31.9%	−47.4% / −82.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 10, 2025 −43.7%	Enter above $244.86 (+247.5%)	32% 34/106	+14.1% / +31.9%	−51.7% / −82.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Mar 19, 2026 −23.2%	Enter above $73.87 (+4.8%)	34% 40/117	+15.2% / +31.9%	−60.6% / −82.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above $75.76 (+7.5%)	31% 59/190	+8.7% / +31.9%	−50.8% / −82.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above $75.06 (+6.5%)	29% 67/233	+11.9% / +31.9%	−43.7% / −82.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −7.3%	Enter above $80.32 (+14.0%)	34% 72/209	+17.4% / +31.9%	−51.4% / −82.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −6.4%	Enter above $71.68 (+1.7%)	36% 66/181	+19.7% / +31.9%	−57.4% / −82.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 −12.2%	Exit below $65.26 (−7.4%)	37% 55/148	+27.5% / +31.9%	−60.2% / −82.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −7.8%	Enter above $76.93 (+9.2%)	28% 96/342	+21.7% / +31.9%	−54.1% / −82.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −11.5%	Not on one close	25% 60/244	+0.3% / +31.9%	−38.3% / −82.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Jul 9, 2025 −45.3%	Not on one close	35% 46/132	+6.1% / +31.9%	−33.7% / −82.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −1.6%	Exit below $69.51 (−1.3%)	32% 222/688	+20.6% / +31.9%	−58.3% / −82.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2025 −41.5%	Not on one close	29% 15/52	+4.5% / +31.9%	−29.4% / −82.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Jan 30, 2026 −15.6%	Enter above $116.02 (+64.7%)	50% 11/22	+27.4% / +32.3%	−64.7% / −82.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −24.7%	Not on one close	43% 13/30	+23.0% / +32.3%	−74.5% / −82.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Dec 31, 2025 −24.9%	Enter above $129.00 (+83.1%)	40% 8/20	+27.9% / +32.3%	−64.7% / −82.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	May 4, 2026 −22.6%	Not on one close	22% 26/118	+11.3% / +31.9%	−43.9% / −82.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −37.0%	Enter above $109.96 (+56.1%)	36% 10/28	+18.5% / +31.9%	−48.0% / −82.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Apr 17, 2026 −27.6%	Enter above $82.24 (+16.7%)	35% 31/88	+33.0% / +31.9%	−43.8% / −82.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −1.6%	Exit below $64.97 (−7.8%)	32% 143/442	+7.9% / +31.9%	−67.8% / −82.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −1.6%	Exit below $69.83 (−0.9%)	32% 213/674	+23.5% / +31.9%	−53.8% / −82.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −7.3%	Enter above $69.63 (−1.2%)	37% 112/305	+8.1% / +31.9%	−69.6% / −82.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $92.03 (+30.6%)	62% 5/8	+31.7% / +28.6%	−78.6% / −82.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above $74.27 (+5.4%)	31% 177/570	+12.5% / +31.9%	−32.2% / −82.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −7.3%	Enter above $83.51 (+18.5%)	39% 104/265	+11.2% / +31.9%	−65.3% / −82.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −6.4%	Enter above $90.36 (+28.2%)	35% 54/156	+26.6% / +31.9%	−54.6% / −82.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +1.3%	Enter above $73.49 (+4.3%)	39% 21/54	+33.9% / +32.3%	−62.8% / −82.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −24.7%	Not on one close	46% 12/26	+16.7% / +31.5%	−74.5% / −82.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −24.7%	Not on one close	42% 15/36	+16.1% / +32.3%	−69.1% / −82.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −7.3%	Enter above $70.36 (−0.1%)	31% 110/351	+6.6% / +31.9%	−67.6% / −82.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jun 5, 2026 −14.3%	Not on one close	58% 22/38	+2.0% / +31.9%	−74.1% / −82.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −37.0%	Not on one close	56% 192/340	+4.7% / +31.9%	−45.2% / −82.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −37.0%	Not on one close	62% 243/392	+15.4% / +31.9%	−50.6% / −82.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 −1.9%	Sell above $70.51 (+0.1%)	62% 101/163	+4.0% / +31.9%	−69.2% / −82.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 −9.0%	Not on one close	63% 100/158	+12.4% / +31.9%	−75.5% / −82.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 −9.0%	Not on one close	61% 159/261	+9.3% / +31.9%	−84.4% / −82.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +0.2%	Not on one close	58% 45/77	+5.3% / +31.9%	−76.3% / −82.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +43,509.3%	Sell above $201.01 (+185.3%)	–	+31.9% / +31.9%	−82.0% / −82.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jul 22, 2024 +8.8%	Buy below $54.01 (−23.4%)	52% 30/58	+2.2% / +31.9%	−36.0% / −82.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 −12.3%	Exit below $69.41 (−1.5%)	51% 168/331	+18.3% / +31.9%	−64.3% / −82.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +0.2%	Not on one close	57% 248/436	+25.0% / +31.9%	−56.5% / −82.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.2%	Sell above $70.46 (0.0%)	56% 1033/1847	+3.2% / +31.9%	−75.7% / −82.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2025 −42.8%	Not on one close	49% 42/86	−0.5% / +31.9%	−78.0% / −82.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below $67.56 (−4.1%)	39% 401/1031	+21.8% / +31.9%	−65.1% / −82.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +1.3%	Sell above $70.98 (+0.7%)	59% 74/125	+3.9% / +31.9%	−78.7% / −82.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $70.46 (+0.0%)	28% 191/685	+26.7% / +31.9%	−49.6% / −82.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −7.3%	Not on one close	32% 74/230	+10.0% / +31.9%	−63.4% / −82.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Jun 26, 2026 −4.5%	Not on one close	72% 36/50	+9.7% / +31.9%	−74.1% / −82.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 −25.7%	Not on one close	41% 63/154	+13.8% / +32.4%	−39.4% / −82.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +0.2%	Enter above $70.73 (+0.4%)	29% 168/581	+21.4% / +31.9%	−57.6% / −82.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −7.3%	Enter above $69.19 (−1.8%)	35% 121/349	+20.6% / +31.9%	−64.7% / −82.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $70.46 (+0.0%)	32% 196/616	+5.9% / +31.9%	−80.1% / −82.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Not on one close	29% 26/90	+24.3% / +32.6%	−80.3% / −82.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.1%	Sell $70.44–$70.48 (0.0%)	36% 319/896	+13.1% / +31.9%	−64.4% / −82.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Jan 23, 2026 −18.2%	Not on one close	55% 70/128	+20.3% / +31.9%	−78.6% / −82.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Enter above $71.55 (+1.5%)	33% 44/134	+8.4% / +31.9%	−64.1% / −82.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +3.8%	Not on one close	45% 28/62	+3.0% / +31.9%	−19.7% / −82.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −24.7%	Buys Oct 30	53% 23/43	+17.8% / +31.9%	−78.7% / −82.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.1%	Window opens Apr 1	52% 23/44	+22.8% / +31.9%	−53.4% / −82.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 −25.7%	Window opens Oct 16	49% 21/43	+20.4% / +31.9%	−70.7% / −82.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −23.0%	Buys Dec 23	27% 12/44	+1.1% / +31.9%	−17.3% / −82.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.4%	Buys Oct 29	49% 260/526	+9.6% / +31.9%	−30.1% / −82.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +1.3%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+7.7% / +31.9%	−38.7% / −82.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −10.0%	Buys Nov 24	48% 194/400	+3.2% / +31.9%	−13.0% / −82.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +138.9%	Not on one close	35% 7/20	+13.1% / +31.9%	−82.0% / −82.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.2%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1163/2284	+20.3% / +31.9%	−78.9% / −82.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −7.8%	Buys Oct 27	48% 167/348	+2.7% / +31.9%	−19.6% / −82.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.1%	Sells Oct 16	50% 269/541	+13.2% / +31.9%	−66.4% / −82.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+31.9%	−82.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Oct 2008

NFLX−21%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Apr 2020

NFLX−23%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Feb 2024

NFLX−72%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.07Moves about 1.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture59%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 59% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change−3%
From 52-week high−43%
Debt to equity0.63×
Net debt / EBITDA0.5×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover17.4×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Entertainment · Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, games, and live programming across various genres and languages. It also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$293B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$48.4B	Total sales. The market values it at 6.1× sales.
P/E ratio	n/a	Lost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Forward P/E	18.5×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	9.7×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	28.2%	Keeps 28¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+16.0%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−139.4%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	45.3%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$25.4B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$26.6B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$16.7B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$9.1B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.63×	Moderate.
Interest cover	17.4×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$92.06	31% above the close, from 45 analysts (range $57.00 to $135.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

NFLX: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Media & telecom: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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