Semiconductors

Micron (MU)

$953.19 −3.6% on the day·+395.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold54 / 100

Hold: 54 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+35% vs 200-day) scores 97 and lifts it; Off the high (−21% from its 1-year high) scores 29 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	MU	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	40%	40	40	16.0
Off the high	−21% from its 1-year high	29	30	8.7
Trend	+35% vs 200-day	97	30	29.1

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for MU

Factor	MU	Points	What it is
Plays in	40%	40	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+64% · 46 analysts	100	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.4 · strong buy	82	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	12.8×	88	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Forward P/E	4.6×	98	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.16	97	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	8.1×	19	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Price to book	7.8×	22	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Dividend yield	0.1%	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Earnings growth	+879%	99	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Revenue growth	+256%	99	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Profit margin	64%	97	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Return on equity	61%	95	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Debt to equity	0.02×	91	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-09-03.
Off the high	−21% from its 1-year high	29	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+35% vs 200-day	97	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+395%	99	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	7/10 · very high	30	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on MU

40 of the 100 plays hold MU right now.
The breakout and mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 35% above its 200-day average and 21% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads very high: it moves about 2.5× its index and fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $1,560.57, 64% above the close (46 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in40 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureVery high7 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.35×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+35%). Higher than on 80% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MU now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn MU: right 24 of 48 · Out since Jun 18, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn MU: right 67 of 205 · Out since Oct 12, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn MU: right 13 of 29 · In since Jul 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn MU: right 111 of 176 · Out since Aug 12, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn MU: right 16 of 29 · Out since May 21, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn MU: right 45 of 95 · In since Jun 29, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn MU: right 26 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

MU, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved MU lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Oct 8−4.3% against the S&P 5000.9× a normal day

MU −4.8%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MU was found for this session. Headlines that day were commentary or previews rather than news. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved −3.6% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Tue Sep 22+5.0% against the S&P 5001.0× a normal day

MU +5.0%, the S&P 500 0.0% that session; +2.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MU was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MU starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved 0.0%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved +2.9% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Fri Sep 4+6.5% against the S&P 5001.1× a normal day

MU +6.1%, the S&P 500 −0.4% that session; +3.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MU was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MU starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.4%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved +3.7% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on MU

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following16 of 30 in Breakouts & channels2 of 15 in Momentum9 of 17 in Mean reversion4 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns2 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on MU went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,028.38 (+7.9%)	24% 153/632	+10.3% / +22.4%	−73.4% / −90.9%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	May 16, 2025 +875.1%	Exit below $914.76 (−4.0%)	33% 27/83	+28.6% / +22.4%	−54.3% / −90.9%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above $1,011.82 (+6.2%)	23% 79/346	+15.1% / +22.4%	−61.7% / −90.9%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $983.80 (+3.2%)	21% 37/174	+20.9% / +22.7%	−40.0% / −90.9%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jun 20, 2025 +673.2%	Exit below $842.49 (−11.6%)	36% 14/39	+29.4% / +22.4%	−48.5% / −90.9%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 8, 2025 +703.0%	Exit below $842.49 (−11.6%)	25% 15/59	+25.1% / +22.4%	−57.4% / −90.9%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +911.7%	Exit below $739.27 (−22.4%)	52% 13/25	+33.5% / +22.4%	−54.4% / −90.9%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Jun 2, 2025 +873.3%	Exit below $710.60 (−25.4%)	17% 22/127	+25.3% / +22.4%	−56.3% / −90.9%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jun 27, 2025 +666.0%	Not on one close	44% 11/25	+26.4% / +22.4%	−65.0% / −90.9%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Jun 11, 2025 +723.6%	Exit below $710.60 (−25.4%)	16% 14/87	+21.2% / +22.4%	−59.9% / −90.9%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Sep 4, 2026 −6.2%	Exit below $929.66 (−2.5%)	37% 52/139	+13.0% / +22.4%	−77.4% / −90.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,028.00 (+7.8%)	24% 193/800	+7.4% / +22.4%	−65.4% / −90.9%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,123.47 (+17.9%)	32% 93/293	+2.5% / +22.4%	−76.2% / −90.9%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jun 9, 2025 +761.3%	Not on one close	27% 9/33	+20.9% / +23.6%	−61.9% / −90.9%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Aug 18, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $935.35 (−1.9%)	30% 39/129	+20.0% / +22.4%	−55.5% / −90.9%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −0.5%	Exit below $939.78 (−1.4%)	30% 35/115	+20.1% / +22.4%	−59.6% / −90.9%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,081.81 (+13.5%)	33% 60/181	+6.2% / +22.4%	−75.4% / −90.9%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 −11.8%	Not on one close	40% 130/323	+9.4% / +22.4%	−54.8% / −90.9%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −7.4%	Enter above $1,093.38 (+14.7%)	33% 188/570	+4.0% / +22.4%	−76.3% / −90.9%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 −5.8%	Exit below $902.60 (−5.3%)	37% 79/216	+14.1% / +22.4%	−63.3% / −90.9%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −12.4%	Enter above $1,087.88 (+14.1%)	39% 191/490	+9.3% / +22.4%	−85.2% / −90.9%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 24, 2026 −9.1%	Not on one close	34% 55/160	+4.9% / +22.4%	−64.5% / −90.9%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 −5.8%	Exit below $941.85 (−1.2%)	28% 51/183	+12.4% / +22.4%	−64.8% / −90.9%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −7.4%	Enter above $1,070.16 (+12.3%)	33% 110/332	+8.2% / +22.4%	−80.5% / −90.9%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $2,015.97 (+111.5%)	30% 74/246	+4.4% / +22.4%	−75.9% / −90.9%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Not on one close	40% 103/258	+13.9% / +22.4%	−65.7% / −90.9%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 −5.8%	Exit below $954.48 (+0.1%)	28% 49/175	+13.0% / +22.4%	−62.7% / −90.9%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	May 15, 2025 +901.2%	Exit below $437.05 (−54.1%)	33% 29/87	+26.1% / +22.4%	−54.6% / −90.9%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −7.4%	Not on one close	33% 78/234	+3.1% / +22.4%	−63.7% / −90.9%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 18, 2026 −15.9%	Not on one close	50% 24/48	+4.6% / +22.4%	−23.6% / −90.9%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 −8.7%	Exit below $917.63 (−3.7%)	37% 44/118	+16.7% / +22.4%	−60.8% / −90.9%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above $1,108.72 (+16.3%)	34% 45/134	+10.0% / +22.4%	−60.0% / −90.9%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,108.72 (+16.3%)	36% 32/90	+13.9% / +22.4%	−57.7% / −90.9%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 −8.7%	Exit below $956.36 (+0.3%)	33% 31/95	+12.1% / +22.4%	−47.9% / −90.9%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Not on one close	38% 49/128	+7.1% / +22.4%	−70.7% / −90.9%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,167.45 (+22.5%)	33% 57/174	+9.7% / +22.4%	−50.6% / −90.9%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −7.4%	Enter above $1,140.29 (+19.6%)	35% 77/218	+7.3% / +22.4%	−57.3% / −90.9%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,097.39 (+15.1%)	33% 70/212	+4.4% / +22.4%	−66.9% / −90.9%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,096.01 (+15.0%)	33% 69/211	+2.9% / +22.4%	−81.2% / −90.9%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above $1,107.80 (+16.2%)	33% 67/205	+8.8% / +22.4%	−77.3% / −90.9%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above $1,034.73 (+8.6%)	27% 96/360	+9.6% / +22.4%	−68.7% / −90.9%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −11.9%	Not on one close	25% 60/242	+3.4% / +22.4%	−43.7% / −90.9%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −7.4%	Not on one close	35% 40/114	+1.2% / +22.4%	−36.6% / −90.9%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,074.87 (+12.8%)	36% 243/684	+12.6% / +22.4%	−83.3% / −90.9%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −7.4%	Not on one close	35% 14/40	+2.0% / +22.4%	−36.6% / −90.9%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +702.2%	Not on one close	45% 13/29	+23.1% / +23.2%	−76.2% / −90.9%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +774.8%	Not on one close	45% 13/29	+20.5% / +23.2%	−79.1% / −90.9%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +702.2%	Exit below $257.75 (−73.0%)	56% 14/25	+23.0% / +23.2%	−57.5% / −90.9%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	May 8, 2026 +27.7%	Not on one close	23% 31/132	+23.3% / +22.4%	−44.5% / −90.9%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +15.8%	Enter above $1,152.70 (+20.9%)	42% 11/26	+15.1% / +22.4%	−62.6% / −90.9%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	May 16, 2025 +875.1%	Exit below $931.53 (−2.3%)	38% 31/81	+27.3% / +22.4%	−64.7% / −90.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −8.8%	Enter above $1,222.15 (+28.2%)	36% 153/430	+9.4% / +22.4%	−75.3% / −90.9%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,029.09 (+8.0%)	32% 232/728	+11.5% / +22.4%	−73.9% / −90.9%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,456.22 (+52.8%)	35% 112/319	+4.1% / +22.4%	−74.7% / −90.9%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +470.6%	Not on one close	60% 9/15	+25.6% / +22.4%	−66.4% / −90.9%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −9.6%	Enter above $1,165.98 (+22.3%)	28% 166/586	+1.9% / +22.4%	−72.8% / −90.9%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above $1,557.62 (+63.4%)	34% 93/273	+2.5% / +22.4%	−78.3% / −90.9%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 −5.8%	Exit below $929.97 (−2.4%)	29% 53/181	+11.7% / +22.4%	−69.7% / −90.9%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +911.7%	Exit below $776.53 (−18.5%)	38% 26/69	+25.9% / +23.2%	−77.8% / −90.9%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +774.8%	Not on one close	48% 10/21	+22.1% / +24.6%	−64.5% / −87.9%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +774.8%	Not on one close	32% 8/25	+14.4% / +23.2%	−75.1% / −90.9%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,230.07 (+29.0%)	34% 119/351	+6.1% / +22.4%	−73.3% / −90.9%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	May 14, 2025 +902.5%	Not on one close	55% 16/29	−1.6% / +22.4%	−80.1% / −90.9%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Sell above $1,001.77 (+5.1%)	59% 156/263	+9.4% / +22.4%	−24.9% / −90.9%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −8.8%	Sell above $1,087.99 (+14.1%)	57% 170/297	+13.8% / +22.4%	−39.0% / −90.9%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 12, 2026 +4.6%	Buy below $957.52 (+0.5%)	63% 111/176	+10.7% / +22.4%	−45.5% / −90.9%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Aug 18, 2026 +1.3%	Buy $971.97–$1,050.49 (+2.0%)	69% 127/184	+14.8% / +22.4%	−73.1% / −90.9%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −9.6%	Enter above $964.97 (+1.2%)	67% 214/320	+23.6% / +22.4%	−60.3% / −90.9%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2025 +605.9%	Not on one close	61% 42/69	+2.3% / +22.4%	−88.7% / −90.9%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Jul 1, 2026 −7.6%	Sell above $1,717.53 (+80.2%)	83% 10/12	+23.1% / +22.4%	−90.9% / −90.9%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2024 +753.7%	Buy below $726.53 (−23.8%)	65% 31/48	+3.3% / +22.4%	−26.7% / −90.9%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −4.7%	Enter above $1,014.60 (+6.4%)	49% 165/338	+12.5% / +22.4%	−72.9% / −90.9%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −12.4%	Not on one close	57% 241/423	+16.3% / +22.4%	−56.6% / −90.9%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −7.4%	Buy below $953.18 (0.0%)	57% 1084/1894	+7.4% / +22.4%	−59.9% / −90.9%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 −1.9%	Not on one close	61% 45/74	+7.6% / +22.4%	−49.5% / −90.9%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −10.4%	Enter above $993.03 (+4.2%)	39% 403/1046	+13.6% / +22.4%	−82.8% / −90.9%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −0.6%	Buy below $1,086.59 (+14.0%)	60% 80/133	+6.9% / +22.4%	−81.9% / −90.9%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Not on one close	28% 209/742	+12.1% / +22.4%	−64.1% / −90.9%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Aug 31, 2026 −0.6%	Not on one close	35% 72/208	+12.7% / +22.4%	−76.4% / −90.9%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	May 21, 2025 +897.1%	Not on one close	55% 16/29	+1.3% / +22.4%	−71.4% / −90.9%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jun 2, 2025 +873.3%	Exit below $645.84 (−32.2%)	34% 42/125	+9.1% / +22.7%	−91.5% / −90.9%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $1,020.30 (+7.0%)	28% 190/676	+16.4% / +22.4%	−64.7% / −90.9%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above $1,311.71 (+37.6%)	31% 115/369	+1.9% / +22.4%	−85.6% / −90.9%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above $953.18 (0.0%)	34% 214/634	+3.6% / +22.4%	−81.8% / −90.9%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 12, 2026 +4.6%	Not on one close	33% 31/93	+23.1% / +22.9%	−67.8% / −90.9%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −8.8%	Not on one close	36% 338/928	+10.4% / +22.4%	−72.7% / −90.9%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Jun 29, 2026 −16.8%	Not on one close	47% 45/95	+5.0% / +22.4%	−81.5% / −90.9%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Aug 12, 2026 +4.6%	Exit below $844.61 (−11.4%)	35% 31/89	+19.4% / +22.4%	−51.4% / −90.9%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 1, 2024 +844.9%	Not on one close	44% 32/72	+1.5% / +22.4%	−34.5% / −90.9%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +84.3%	Buys Oct 30	60% 26/43	+16.5% / +22.4%	−79.3% / −90.9%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 +39.9%	Enter above $1,185.78 (+24.4%)	56% 24/43	+16.9% / +22.4%	−78.3% / −90.9%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 20, 2026 +30.2%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+17.8% / +22.4%	−74.6% / −90.9%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +205.5%	Buys Dec 23	55% 24/44	+5.9% / +22.4%	−13.4% / −90.9%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −10.4%	Buys Oct 29	53% 278/526	+14.1% / +22.4%	−48.2% / −90.9%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −10.5%	Sells Jun 30	27% 3/11	−2.9% / +22.4%	−77.1% / −90.9%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −6.2%	Buys Nov 24	48% 193/400	+4.2% / +22.4%	−20.7% / −90.9%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +1,836.0%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+19.2% / +22.4%	−76.1% / −90.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −3.6%	Sells Oct 16	52% 1178/2284	+18.5% / +22.4%	−76.1% / −90.9%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.9%	Buys Oct 27	48% 166/348	+4.4% / +22.4%	−17.0% / −90.9%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −11.3%	Sells Oct 16	49% 265/541	+4.9% / +22.4%	−75.9% / −90.9%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+22.4%	−90.9%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureVery high7 of 10 points

Market swings3/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up2/2

It moves about 2.5× its index.
It fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 796% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Dec 2009

MU−84%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Nov 2020

MU−43%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · back to its old high Mar 2024

MU−49%

S&P 500−25%

Beta2.52Moves about 2.5× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture148%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 148% as much on average.
Two-year change+796%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−21%
Debt to equity0.10×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover21.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Semiconductors · Micron Technology, Inc. engages in the provision of semiconductor memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Mainland China, other Asia Pacific countries, Japan, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Cloud Memory Business Unit, Core Data Center Business Unit, Mobile and Client Business Unit, and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$1.1T	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$133B	Total sales. The market values it at 8.1× sales.
P/E ratio	12.8×	Buyers pay $13 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	4.6×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	7.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	63.8%	Keeps 64¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+256.3%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+879.3%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	61.4%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$29.1B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$54.2B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$5.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$43.4B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.10×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	21.2×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$1,560.57	64% above the close, from 46 analysts (range $361.00 to $3,000.00).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.06%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-09-03; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

MU: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Semiconductors: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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