Semiconductors

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

$226.32 +0.5% on the day·+6.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Sell17 / 100

Sell: 17 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Trend (−7% vs 200-day) scores 25 and lifts it; Off the high (−31% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	NXPI	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	23%	23	40	9.2
Off the high	−31% from its 1-year high	0	30	0.0
Trend	−7% vs 200-day	25	30	7.5

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for NXPI

Factor	NXPI	Points	What it is
Plays in	23%	23	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+35% · 29 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.9 · buy	57	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	21.6×	60	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Forward P/E	12.4×	74	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.47	89	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	4.5×	40	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Price to book	5.2×	31	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Dividend yield	1.8%	47	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Earnings growth	+14%	42	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Revenue growth	+2%	16	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Profit margin	21%	68	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Return on equity	24%	78	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Debt to equity	1.26×	23	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-29.
Off the high	−31% from its 1-year high	0	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−7% vs 200-day	25	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+6%	40	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	5/10 · high	50	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on NXPI

23 of the 100 plays hold NXPI right now.
The trend-following, breakout, momentum and mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 7% below its 200-day average and 31% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 1.5× its index and fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $306.66, 35% above the close (29 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in23 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.93×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−7%). Higher than on 20% of days since 2011. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about NXPI now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn NXPI: right 19 of 34 · Out since Jun 24, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn NXPI: right 39 of 121 · In since Oct 1, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn NXPI: right 10 of 19 · Out since Aug 31, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn NXPI: right 78 of 128 · Out since Sep 4, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn NXPI: right 13 of 26 · Out since Apr 28, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn NXPI: right 48 of 93 · In since Oct 13, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn NXPI: right 19 of 32 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

NXPI, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved NXPI lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Wed Oct 7−3.5% against the S&P 5001.6× a normal day

NXPI −3.7%, the S&P 500 −0.2% that session; −7.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

HeadlineMoomoo · Oct 7, 12:18 pm ET
NXP Semiconductors Falls as Chip Stocks Weaken and Analysts Turn More Cautious
HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 7, 4:30 pm ETafter that close
NXP Semiconductors N.V. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors

Mon Sep 14−4.8% against the S&P 5001.8× a normal day

NXPI −5.2%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; −3.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NXPI was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NXPI starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved −6.5% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Fri Sep 11+3.6% against the S&P 5001.4× a normal day

NXPI +4.5%, the S&P 500 +0.9% that session; +0.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NXPI was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NXPI starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +0.9%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved +2.0% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Tue Oct 27, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 4.10.

Over its last 12 reports, NXPI's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±4.1% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 5 times.
NXPI after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 6 of 7 times (median +1.2%).
NXPI after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 2 of 3 times (median −4.1%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on NXPI

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following5 of 30 in Breakouts & channels4 of 15 in Momentum4 of 17 in Mean reversion2 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on NXPI went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2010. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $232.70 (+2.8%)	25% 130/517	+4.9% / +21.3%	−70.2% / −60.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $254.02 (+12.2%)	27% 18/66	+5.9% / +16.0%	−40.5% / −53.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $236.67 (+4.6%)	25% 67/271	+5.1% / +17.4%	−55.5% / −60.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jun 26, 2026 −17.9%	Not on one close	22% 28/128	+4.2% / +20.7%	−31.4% / −53.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $254.35 (+12.4%)	20% 12/59	−0.8% / +14.6%	−67.3% / −60.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $259.19 (+14.5%)	19% 17/88	−0.4% / +18.6%	−60.0% / −53.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $246.86 (+9.1%)	26% 7/27	+8.1% / +15.8%	−53.3% / −53.3%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $244.23 (+7.9%)	14% 18/129	+3.9% / +15.7%	−44.8% / −53.3%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +3.4%	Not on one close	47% 7/15	+7.7% / +15.7%	−60.9% / −53.3%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $244.23 (+7.9%)	15% 14/95	+3.2% / +17.0%	−55.6% / −53.3%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −4.9%	Exit below $208.80 (−7.7%)	33% 38/114	+3.4% / +18.1%	−57.9% / −60.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $233.80 (+3.3%)	23% 134/587	+0.5% / +20.9%	−73.8% / −60.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Aug 25, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $184.94 (−18.3%)	40% 70/175	+9.2% / +16.0%	−51.8% / −60.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above $297.93 (+31.6%)	18% 5/28	+6.1% / +19.8%	−62.9% / −53.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Jul 1, 2026 −18.6%	Enter above $294.72 (+30.2%)	29% 26/89	+9.1% / +16.2%	−59.7% / −60.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.3%	Enter above $261.17 (+15.4%)	27% 22/83	+11.6% / +20.9%	−52.1% / −60.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −7.1%	Exit below $223.91 (−1.1%)	42% 47/112	+8.8% / +21.0%	−70.7% / −60.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	41% 109/266	+7.8% / +21.0%	−50.3% / −60.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $235.85 (+4.2%)	33% 148/444	+4.6% / +21.6%	−56.6% / −60.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 −0.7%	Exit below $216.66 (−4.3%)	33% 52/157	+6.6% / +20.9%	−62.2% / −60.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $243.33 (+7.5%)	35% 125/362	+2.8% / +21.7%	−56.0% / −60.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 23, 2026 −23.9%	Not on one close	30% 34/113	+2.9% / +21.1%	−46.3% / −60.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $237.61 (+5.0%)	29% 38/129	+9.1% / +20.5%	−51.2% / −60.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.5%	Enter above $236.62 (+4.6%)	38% 75/197	+4.5% / +21.0%	−60.2% / −60.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $250.29 (+10.6%)	34% 56/165	+6.7% / +20.5%	−60.9% / −60.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 2, 2026 −0.5%	Exit below $224.17 (−0.9%)	35% 62/177	+0.5% / +16.0%	−54.8% / −60.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $243.14 (+7.4%)	33% 35/106	+4.0% / +17.4%	−46.8% / −60.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Jul 21, 2026 −16.8%	Enter above $301.04 (+33.0%)	38% 23/61	+10.6% / +17.4%	−47.6% / −60.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.5%	Enter above $228.78 (+1.1%)	34% 50/148	+1.9% / +14.7%	−54.0% / −60.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 24, 2026 −22.7%	Not on one close	56% 19/34	+3.6% / +20.5%	−10.2% / −60.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −4.7%	Exit below $216.66 (−4.3%)	39% 33/85	+9.9% / +21.0%	−55.9% / −60.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 −22.9%	Enter above $264.98 (+17.1%)	27% 32/118	−1.8% / +21.1%	−62.5% / −60.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jun 26, 2026 −17.9%	Enter above $264.98 (+17.1%)	30% 20/66	+10.5% / +21.1%	−45.4% / −60.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jun 10, 2026 −20.1%	Enter above $554.36 (+144.9%)	28% 23/81	+3.0% / +17.4%	−43.0% / −60.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Dec 29, 2025 +4.0%	Enter above $279.20 (+23.4%)	47% 34/72	+11.2% / +21.0%	−54.2% / −60.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 −22.9%	Enter above $253.85 (+12.2%)	28% 40/144	−5.6% / +20.9%	−79.5% / −60.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $247.65 (+9.4%)	29% 50/170	−3.6% / +21.1%	−75.3% / −60.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 −3.9%	Exit below $224.97 (−0.6%)	31% 45/147	+2.2% / +21.1%	−65.5% / −60.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −7.1%	Exit below $221.50 (−2.1%)	38% 50/133	+5.6% / +21.0%	−64.3% / −60.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 −5.4%	Exit below $214.11 (−5.4%)	32% 39/121	+3.1% / +21.5%	−79.0% / −60.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.5%	Enter above $238.85 (+5.5%)	26% 74/282	+3.8% / +21.0%	−65.6% / −60.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	May 15, 2026 −21.7%	Not on one close	23% 38/164	−1.0% / +21.0%	−50.1% / −60.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −2.1%	Not on one close	31% 28/90	−0.4% / +20.9%	−43.1% / −60.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $243.23 (+7.5%)	30% 162/532	−1.7% / +21.6%	−79.7% / −60.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +1.4%	Not on one close	25% 4/16	+0.6% / +14.5%	−20.1% / −60.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −4.7%	Exit below $213.08 (−5.9%)	38% 6/16	+13.2% / +20.0%	−53.3% / −53.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.2%	Flips at next check	53% 10/19	+13.7% / +20.0%	−60.1% / −53.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $236.93 (+4.7%)	44% 11/25	+9.5% / +20.0%	−54.1% / −53.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Mar 3, 2026 +6.5%	Not on one close	19% 19/102	+7.0% / +17.4%	−39.0% / −60.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −19.1%	Enter above $313.56 (+38.5%)	39% 7/18	+9.3% / +18.6%	−44.5% / −53.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $271.60 (+20.0%)	18% 19/103	−1.0% / +15.7%	−72.1% / −60.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.5%	Enter above $248.10 (+9.6%)	32% 102/321	+4.5% / +20.5%	−55.7% / −60.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $232.54 (+2.7%)	27% 164/608	−0.2% / +20.5%	−78.4% / −60.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $252.92 (+11.8%)	39% 89/228	+9.5% / +21.1%	−43.4% / −60.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +18.1%	Not on one close	40% 4/10	+14.2% / +18.8%	−57.2% / −53.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $249.65 (+10.3%)	26% 124/472	−1.3% / +21.0%	−54.7% / −60.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $214.80 (−5.1%)	35% 69/198	+3.3% / +17.4%	−49.2% / −60.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $236.49 (+4.5%)	30% 38/125	+6.5% / +17.4%	−50.0% / −60.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −4.7%	Exit below $238.14 (+5.2%)	28% 16/57	+6.0% / +20.0%	−66.1% / −53.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.2%	Flips at next check	59% 10/17	+12.1% / +15.8%	−60.1% / −53.3%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	58% 11/19	+16.0% / +20.0%	−53.3% / −53.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $233.90 (+3.3%)	33% 77/234	+5.2% / +16.0%	−49.5% / −60.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 −4.3%	Not on one close	61% 19/31	+14.0% / +21.6%	−58.2% / −60.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 4, 2026 −4.3%	Not on one close	61% 136/222	+4.8% / +15.7%	−26.0% / −53.3%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −0.5%	Not on one close	68% 204/300	+12.4% / +15.7%	−46.1% / −53.3%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −0.2%	Buy below $221.24 (−2.2%)	61% 78/128	+8.1% / +21.1%	−49.0% / −60.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 −5.4%	Buy $227.10–$240.64 (+0.3%)	62% 76/122	+12.9% / +21.1%	−46.5% / −60.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −1.7%	Enter above $227.29 (+0.4%)	58% 125/215	+5.0% / +21.6%	−51.4% / −60.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	62% 31/50	+8.4% / +21.1%	−48.5% / −60.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	May 20, 2011 +794.1%	Sell above $590.31 (+160.8%)	–	+15.7% / +15.7%	−53.3% / −53.3%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Mar 24, 2026 +16.7%	Not on one close	50% 6/12	+2.8% / +16.0%	−3.4% / −60.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $236.11 (+4.3%)	50% 117/236	+3.6% / +20.9%	−54.9% / −60.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above $228.43 (+0.9%)	54% 166/306	+1.2% / +20.9%	−71.5% / −60.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −6.5%	Buy below $226.32 (0.0%)	56% 780/1386	+8.8% / +19.8%	−48.5% / −60.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −3.9%	Not on one close	58% 38/66	+6.1% / +15.7%	−46.5% / −53.3%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −6.5%	Enter above $240.26 (+6.2%)	35% 280/789	+3.8% / +20.5%	−60.8% / −60.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −4.7%	Buy below $242.32 (+7.1%)	66% 69/104	+18.1% / +20.9%	−53.3% / −60.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.5%	Enter above $226.32 (+0.0%)	24% 137/560	+0.8% / +21.1%	−76.2% / −60.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 −3.9%	Not on one close	38% 52/136	+7.3% / +21.0%	−76.9% / −60.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 −1.0%	Not on one close	50% 13/26	+7.2% / +21.6%	−50.3% / −60.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +0.4%	Not on one close	39% 22/56	+12.5% / +19.0%	−53.5% / −53.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $232.33 (+2.7%)	23% 129/559	−4.1% / +20.8%	−83.1% / −60.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $262.00 (+15.8%)	33% 89/270	+4.1% / +21.1%	−48.3% / −60.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 −0.7%	Not on one close	30% 146/485	−6.7% / +21.0%	−89.7% / −60.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Jun 24, 2026 −22.7%	Not on one close	42% 31/74	+17.5% / +19.4%	−53.3% / −53.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −3.8%	Not on one close	34% 218/642	+4.4% / +16.5%	−46.6% / −60.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	52% 48/93	+8.9% / +20.8%	−60.6% / −60.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.5%	Not on one close	29% 20/70	+0.6% / +20.7%	−45.6% / −60.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2026 +10.9%	Not on one close	50% 15/30	+2.8% / +20.9%	−18.3% / −60.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −22.3%	Buys Oct 30	59% 19/32	+22.9% / +19.8%	−53.3% / −60.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	May 12, 2026 −22.5%	Enter above $250.70 (+10.8%)	53% 17/32	+22.8% / +20.5%	−53.3% / −60.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 15, 2026 −21.7%	Window opens Oct 16	48% 15/31	+20.5% / +20.5%	−53.3% / −60.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +2.4%	Buys Dec 23	38% 12/32	+2.4% / +19.8%	−8.1% / −60.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −6.5%	Buys Oct 29	47% 184/388	+8.6% / +19.8%	−33.8% / −60.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −4.7%	Sells Jun 30	67% 6/9	+11.5% / +19.8%	−38.4% / −60.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −0.2%	Buys Nov 24	48% 143/296	+3.9% / +19.8%	−9.7% / −60.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +53.5%	Not on one close	42% 5/12	+9.0% / +17.1%	−60.0% / −60.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.5%	Sells Oct 16	51% 868/1689	+15.3% / +19.8%	−58.3% / −60.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +3.4%	Buys Oct 27	47% 121/258	+3.5% / +19.8%	−20.9% / −60.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −7.1%	Sells Oct 16	48% 191/400	+4.1% / +19.8%	−66.6% / −60.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Aug 6, 2010	Always in	–	+19.8%	−60.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh5 of 10 points

Market swings3/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.5× its index.
It fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Oct 2020

NXPI−52%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Dec 2023

NXPI−38%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.53Moves about 1.5× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture189%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 189% as much on average.
Two-year change−1%
From 52-week high−31%
Debt to equity1.09×
Net debt / EBITDA1.5×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover6.7×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Semiconductors · NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$57.1B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$13.2B	Total sales. The market values it at 4.3× sales.
P/E ratio	21.6×	Buyers pay $22 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	12.4×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	5.2×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	21.0%	Keeps 21¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+2.4%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+13.9%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	24.3%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$3.6B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$10.1B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$11.0B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$3.2B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	1.09×	Moderate.
Interest cover	6.7×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$306.66	35% above the close, from 29 analysts (range $190.00 to $400.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	1.79%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-03-29; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

NXPI: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Semiconductors: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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