Volume & money flow · daily rule · Semiconductors
Money Flow Index on NXP Semiconductors
NXPI with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2010
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding NXPI over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2010 | Hold, since 2010 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +7.2% | +21.6% | +10.0% | +6.3% |
| Total return | +208% | +2,225% | +61% | +36% |
| Worst drawdown | −50.3% | −60.0% | −46.5% | −46.5% |
| Volatility | 29.1% | 43.0% | 33.4% | 42.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| Time invested | 37% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 13 of 26 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +11.5%; out calls saw NXPI move +23.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | NXPI moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | OUT | $228.58 | now | −1.0% | open |
| Mar 17, 2026 | IN | $191.50 | Apr 28, 2026 | +19.4% | ✓ right |
| Dec 17, 2025 | OUT | $220.34 | Mar 17, 2026 | −13.1% | ✓ right |
| Apr 22, 2024 | IN | $209.21 | Dec 17, 2025 | +5.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 19, 2023 | OUT | $218.52 | Apr 22, 2024 | −4.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 21, 2023 | IN | $190.24 | Dec 19, 2023 | +14.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 30, 2023 | OUT | $167.47 | Aug 21, 2023 | +13.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 31, 2022 | IN | $187.88 | Jan 30, 2023 | −10.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 9, 2021 | OUT | $201.64 | Jan 31, 2022 | −6.8% | ✓ right |
| Oct 14, 2021 | IN | $172.50 | Nov 9, 2021 | +16.9% | ✓ right |
| Nov 14, 2018 | OUT | $72.19 | Oct 14, 2021 | +139.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 15, 2018 | IN | $102.55 | Nov 14, 2018 | −29.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 27 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.