Big tech

Alphabet (GOOGL)

$353.78 +0.3% on the day·+45.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold59 / 100

Hold: 59 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Plays in (61%) scores 61 and lifts it; Trend (+4% vs 200-day) scores 55 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	GOOGL	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	61%	61	40	24.4
Off the high	−12% from its 1-year high	60	30	18.0
Trend	+4% vs 200-day	55	30	16.5

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for GOOGL

Factor	GOOGL	Points	What it is
Plays in	61%	61	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+22% · 54 analysts	60	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.4 · strong buy	81	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	17.8×	72	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	23.2×	22	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.25	57	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	9.8×	17	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	6.8×	25	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	0.2%	7	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	+112%	84	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+20%	63	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	55%	95	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	38%	89	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.16×	77	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−12% from its 1-year high	60	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+4% vs 200-day	55	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+45%	75	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	2/10 · low	80	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on GOOGL

61 of the 100 plays hold GOOGL right now.
The trend-following and momentum plays mostly say in; the breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 4% above its 200-day average and 12% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.2× its index and is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $430.40, 22% above the close (54 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in61 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.04×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+4%). Higher than on 35% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about GOOGL now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn GOOGL: right 13 of 40 · Out since Oct 10, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn GOOGL: right 28 of 79 · In since Aug 4, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn GOOGL: right 10 of 30 · In since Jul 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn GOOGL: right 111 of 178 · Out since Sep 14, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn GOOGL: right 15 of 30 · Out since Jul 17, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn GOOGL: right 53 of 113 · In since Sep 10, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn GOOGL: right 15 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

GOOGL, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved GOOGL lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Oct 1−1.9% against the S&P 5000.9× a normal day

GOOGL −1.7%, the S&P 500 +0.2% that session; −0.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

HeadlineCNBC · Oct 1, 3:46 pm ET
Alphabet shares slide as Gemini 4 launch disappoints the Street

Wed Sep 23−3.0% against the S&P 5001.5× a normal day

GOOGL −3.8%, the S&P 500 −0.8% that session; −1.7% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on GOOGL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for GOOGL starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.8%. The 5 other Big tech stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.2% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 14+3.7% against the S&P 5001.8× a normal day

GOOGL +3.2%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; +3.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on GOOGL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for GOOGL starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 5 other Big tech stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 3.02.

Over its last 12 reports, GOOGL's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±4.7% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 7 times.
GOOGL after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 23 of 30 times (median +3.2%).
GOOGL after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 8 of 14 times (median −1.5%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on GOOGL

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following25 of 30 in Breakouts & channels4 of 15 in Momentum14 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow6 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on GOOGL went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $346.80 (−2.0%)	30% 164/543	+16.4% / +21.6%	−29.0% / −65.3%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $345.24 (−2.4%)	33% 34/102	+12.6% / +20.2%	−41.1% / −65.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $346.16 (−2.2%)	28% 91/328	+15.0% / +21.9%	−45.1% / −65.3%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +4.7%	Enter above $520.28 (+47.1%)	18% 34/194	+7.3% / +20.5%	−35.7% / −65.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $349.76 (−1.1%)	24% 21/88	+14.2% / +22.4%	−34.2% / −65.3%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above $362.31 (+2.4%)	26% 30/115	+6.9% / +20.4%	−47.3% / −65.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +107.0%	Exit below $344.02 (−2.8%)	31% 11/36	+15.8% / +20.1%	−31.3% / −65.3%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $340.20 (−3.8%)	19% 26/138	+14.3% / +20.0%	−34.3% / −65.3%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2025 +86.6%	Not on one close	42% 11/26	+14.5% / +20.0%	−43.8% / −65.3%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $340.20 (−3.8%)	21% 23/108	+11.6% / +20.0%	−43.5% / −65.3%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $338.26 (−4.4%)	45% 54/120	+16.7% / +21.6%	−40.9% / −65.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $346.75 (−2.0%)	27% 206/773	+9.3% / +21.6%	−47.2% / −65.3%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $305.08 (−13.8%)	36% 100/279	+7.8% / +22.5%	−52.4% / −65.3%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jun 2, 2025 +110.3%	Not on one close	38% 9/24	+13.3% / +19.3%	−53.2% / −65.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below $334.70 (−5.4%)	34% 43/126	+15.7% / +22.2%	−35.7% / −65.3%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $349.46 (−1.2%)	32% 34/107	+12.0% / +21.6%	−34.7% / −65.3%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below $331.26 (−6.4%)	40% 66/165	+14.9% / +21.6%	−42.4% / −65.3%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.6%	Not on one close	39% 115/294	+13.0% / +21.6%	−34.1% / −65.3%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $325.33 (−8.0%)	39% 207/535	+14.8% / +21.6%	−41.1% / −65.3%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $327.74 (−7.4%)	41% 86/212	+12.1% / +21.6%	−50.6% / −65.3%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below $337.63 (−4.6%)	40% 190/475	+14.0% / +21.6%	−47.4% / −65.3%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 10, 2026 −0.7%	Not on one close	26% 46/174	+4.0% / +21.6%	−50.5% / −65.3%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.8%	Exit below $324.49 (−8.3%)	33% 56/168	+16.9% / +21.6%	−41.9% / −65.3%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +4.5%	Enter above $352.00 (−0.5%)	36% 74/203	+12.9% / +21.6%	−44.7% / −65.3%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Exit below $331.78 (−6.2%)	33% 77/232	+13.6% / +21.6%	−45.6% / −65.3%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +1.3%	Not on one close	41% 103/253	+17.0% / +22.5%	−32.3% / −65.3%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below $327.30 (−7.5%)	35% 48/139	+16.4% / +21.9%	−46.0% / −65.3%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below $338.98 (−4.2%)	36% 33/92	+14.3% / +21.9%	−33.3% / −65.3%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below $336.02 (−5.0%)	30% 66/217	+3.9% / +21.5%	−44.2% / −65.3%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 10, 2025 +49.9%	Not on one close	32% 13/40	+1.8% / +21.6%	−16.6% / −65.3%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +5.7%	Enter above $364.17 (+2.9%)	36% 51/142	+9.4% / +21.6%	−50.0% / −65.3%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 −6.9%	Enter above $384.23 (+8.6%)	32% 54/170	+6.1% / +21.6%	−36.3% / −65.3%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jun 1, 2026 −5.9%	Enter above $384.23 (+8.6%)	32% 36/114	+7.0% / +21.6%	−26.3% / −65.3%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jun 2, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $362.20 (+2.4%)	39% 42/108	+12.2% / +21.9%	−21.6% / −65.3%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Feb 10, 2026 +11.3%	Enter above $364.17 (+2.9%)	32% 39/122	+3.2% / +21.6%	−32.4% / −65.3%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 11, 2026 +3.0%	Enter above $365.26 (+3.2%)	34% 60/178	+8.7% / +21.6%	−25.2% / −65.3%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +4.7%	Enter above $358.19 (+1.2%)	34% 80/232	+7.1% / +21.6%	−44.1% / −65.3%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $338.79 (−4.2%)	41% 76/185	+15.5% / +21.6%	−42.6% / −65.3%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above $353.84 (+0.0%)	40% 75/188	+15.4% / +21.6%	−32.7% / −65.3%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 −6.3%	Exit below $331.01 (−6.4%)	35% 28/79	+11.4% / +21.6%	−54.0% / −65.3%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $338.72 (−4.3%)	31% 107/349	+16.1% / +21.6%	−52.2% / −65.3%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 5, 2026 −2.3%	Not on one close	27% 67/248	+2.6% / +21.6%	−36.2% / −65.3%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +3.3%	Enter above $366.98 (+3.7%)	36% 44/122	+0.9% / +21.6%	−34.3% / −65.3%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $350.31 (−1.0%)	35% 248/711	+8.8% / +21.6%	−48.3% / −65.3%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 17, 2024 +97.1%	Not on one close	31% 18/58	+2.3% / +22.7%	−22.3% / −65.3%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +85.0%	Exit below $290.81 (−17.8%)	27% 7/26	+12.1% / +20.4%	−60.8% / −65.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +85.0%	Not on one close	33% 10/30	+15.2% / +20.4%	−46.0% / −65.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +66.7%	Exit below $323.37 (−8.6%)	23% 11/48	+6.7% / +20.4%	−58.3% / −65.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 11, 2026 +3.0%	Not on one close	21% 32/150	+11.2% / +21.9%	−40.3% / −65.3%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +4.3%	Enter above $382.02 (+8.0%)	40% 8/20	+12.5% / +20.2%	−37.0% / −65.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Jul 10, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above $370.27 (+4.7%)	32% 41/127	+11.1% / +22.1%	−36.9% / −65.3%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $336.00 (−5.0%)	36% 162/445	+12.9% / +21.6%	−43.1% / −65.3%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $348.18 (−1.6%)	33% 232/713	+10.0% / +21.6%	−52.3% / −65.3%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $311.18 (−12.0%)	38% 120/315	+6.2% / +21.6%	−48.0% / −65.3%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2023 +244.3%	Not on one close	40% 2/5	+18.5% / +19.8%	−36.2% / −65.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $354.88 (+0.3%)	31% 188/601	+7.6% / +21.6%	−24.9% / −65.3%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $281.29 (−20.5%)	38% 109/284	+6.3% / +21.9%	−45.1% / −65.3%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.8%	Exit below $323.83 (−8.5%)	34% 55/160	+16.9% / +21.9%	−43.3% / −65.3%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Exit below $346.18 (−2.1%)	31% 24/78	+12.1% / +20.4%	−45.0% / −65.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +85.0%	Not on one close	31% 8/26	+12.5% / +18.9%	−51.4% / −65.3%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +85.0%	Not on one close	32% 12/38	+10.7% / +20.4%	−52.0% / −65.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $327.99 (−7.3%)	37% 123/331	+12.0% / +22.5%	−42.1% / −65.3%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +5.0%	Not on one close	61% 23/38	+6.1% / +21.6%	−49.5% / −65.3%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 +2.7%	Not on one close	59% 214/362	+5.3% / +20.0%	−15.4% / −65.3%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	63% 275/438	+7.1% / +20.0%	−48.5% / −65.3%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +1.3%	Buy below $335.25 (−5.2%)	62% 111/178	+7.3% / +21.6%	−37.1% / −65.3%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Aug 24, 2026 +1.7%	Not on one close	57% 92/161	+7.2% / +21.6%	−61.1% / −65.3%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	58% 163/279	+8.4% / +21.6%	−64.2% / −65.3%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Jul 28, 2026 +6.1%	Sell above $348.29 (−1.6%)	59% 36/61	+7.0% / +21.6%	−63.8% / −65.3%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Jun 3, 2005 +4,992.3%	Sell above $822.27 (+132.4%)	–	+20.0% / +20.0%	−65.3% / −65.3%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jun 4, 2026 −4.8%	Buy below $209.26 (−40.8%)	62% 21/34	+4.3% / +22.5%	−7.9% / −65.3%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $347.08 (−1.9%)	46% 149/324	+9.4% / +21.6%	−52.1% / −65.3%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $351.70 (−0.6%)	58% 248/426	+15.6% / +21.6%	−49.6% / −65.3%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +0.6%	Buy below $353.78 (0.0%)	55% 1023/1846	+5.8% / +21.6%	−35.9% / −65.3%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 3, 2026 −5.2%	Not on one close	60% 65/108	+7.2% / +20.0%	−36.7% / −65.3%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.8%	Exit below $352.49 (−0.4%)	40% 414/1029	+14.6% / +21.6%	−42.9% / −65.3%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Buy below $351.02 (−0.8%)	58% 82/141	+11.5% / +21.6%	−48.8% / −65.3%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	25% 187/755	+7.2% / +21.6%	−51.1% / −65.3%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +4.7%	Not on one close	42% 89/214	+11.9% / +21.6%	−34.7% / −65.3%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jul 17, 2025 +93.4%	Not on one close	50% 15/30	+5.8% / +21.6%	−56.7% / −65.3%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jun 6, 2025 +104.7%	Not on one close	33% 31/94	+13.7% / +20.4%	−63.0% / −65.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $349.93 (−1.1%)	30% 205/679	+10.7% / +21.6%	−43.6% / −65.3%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below $325.65 (−8.0%)	37% 124/335	+14.6% / +21.6%	−43.9% / −65.3%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	31% 206/672	+1.0% / +21.6%	−53.0% / −65.3%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	30% 28/92	+12.4% / +20.4%	−44.2% / −65.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.0%	Not on one close	37% 340/925	+13.2% / +22.1%	−52.3% / −65.3%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	47% 53/113	+3.2% / +21.6%	−61.1% / −65.3%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jul 23, 2026 +11.4%	Not on one close	38% 37/98	+10.6% / +21.6%	−30.4% / −65.3%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 21, 2025 +41.6%	Not on one close	36% 18/50	+1.0% / +21.6%	−10.1% / −65.3%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −7.9%	Buys Oct 30	35% 15/43	+6.3% / +21.6%	−46.3% / −65.3%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Window opens Apr 1	51% 23/45	+9.2% / +21.6%	−55.1% / −65.3%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 18, 2026 −10.8%	Window opens Oct 16	43% 19/44	+10.2% / +21.6%	−45.4% / −65.3%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +12.0%	Buys Dec 23	41% 18/44	+2.5% / +21.6%	−7.8% / −65.3%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +2.1%	Buys Oct 29	47% 249/526	+6.1% / +21.6%	−25.3% / −65.3%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.8%	Sells Jun 30	18% 2/11	+2.7% / +21.6%	−40.4% / −65.3%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +4.5%	Buys Nov 24	46% 185/400	+1.5% / +21.6%	−17.7% / −65.3%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +304.8%	Not on one close	50% 10/20	+14.3% / +21.6%	−42.2% / −65.3%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.3%	Sells Oct 16	50% 1144/2284	+13.0% / +21.6%	−43.8% / −65.3%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +3.2%	Buys Oct 27	50% 173/348	+4.9% / +21.6%	−8.8% / −65.3%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.0%	Sells Oct 16	48% 258/541	+9.0% / +21.6%	−43.6% / −65.3%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+21.6%	−65.3%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow2 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up1/2

It moves about 1.2× its index.
It is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Dec 2009

GOOGL−58%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jul 2020

GOOGL−31%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2024

GOOGL−34%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.21Moves about 1.2× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture96%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 96% as much on average.
Two-year change+118%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−12%
Debt to equity0.29×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover216.8×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Internet Content & Information · Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$4.3T	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$446B	Total sales. The market values it at 9.7× sales.
P/E ratio	17.8×	Buyers pay $18 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	23.2×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	6.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	54.8%	Keeps 55¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+20.1%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+112.3%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	38.1%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$22.7B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$415B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$121B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$242B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.29×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	216.8×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$430.40	22% above the close, from 54 analysts (range $340.00 to $515.00).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.24%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

GOOGL: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Big tech: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

Another stock

Email me Test a theory