Oct 13 close Sign in

Consumer & retail

Starbucks (SBUX)

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Sell34 / 100

Sell: 34 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Off the high (−15% from its 1-year high) scores 49 and lifts it; Trend (−6% vs 200-day) scores 27 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightSBUXPointsWeightAdds
Plays in28%284011.2
Off the high−15% from its 1-year high493014.7
Trend−6% vs 200-day27308.1
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for SBUX
FactorSBUXPointsWhat it is
Plays in28%28The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+21% · 29 analysts · capped: below 200-day50How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating2.3 · buy33The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E53.2×15Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Forward P/E29.4×12Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG1.1162P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales2.7×61Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Price to booknegative book0Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Dividend yield2.7%64Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Earnings growth−25%16Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Revenue growth+4%23Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Profit margin5%35Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Return on equity––Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equitynegative equity0Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-28.
Off the high−15% from its 1-year high49How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend−6% vs 200-day27How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+18%53The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure6/10 · high40The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on SBUX

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in28 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureHigh6 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.94×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−6%). Higher than on 20% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about SBUX now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

SBUX, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved SBUX lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 9−3.2% against the S&P 5002.3× a normal day

SBUX −2.6%, the S&P 500 +0.6% that session.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on SBUX

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on SBUX went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyOUTSep 3, 2026 −13.1%Enter above $95.18 (+3.5%)27% 174/643+1.8% / +10.2%−62.7% / −81.9%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −6.8%Enter above $101.55 (+10.4%)21% 23/107+10.2% / +10.2%−41.1% / −81.9%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −11.9%Enter above $98.41 (+7.0%)22% 76/339+7.7% / +10.2%−50.1% / −81.9%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −11.9%Enter above $100.90 (+9.7%)24% 30/127+6.4% / +10.2%−25.1% / −81.9%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −6.8%Enter above $103.92 (+13.0%)22% 17/77+10.6% / +10.2%−36.7% / −81.9%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −6.8%Enter above $104.47 (+13.5%)20% 14/71+11.8% / +10.2%−27.4% / −81.9%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 −2.1%Enter above $98.33 (+6.9%)28% 11/39+9.0% / +10.2%−34.8% / −81.9%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyOUTSep 17, 2026 −4.8%Enter above $98.27 (+6.8%)12% 22/185+8.0% / +10.2%−41.1% / −81.9%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINJan 20, 2026 +0.0%Not on one close38% 10/26+10.7% / +10.2%−32.5% / −81.9%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTSep 17, 2026 −4.8%Enter above $98.27 (+6.8%)13% 17/131+6.2% / +10.2%−40.6% / −81.9%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −6.8%Enter above $112.23 (+22.0%)40% 53/133+3.4% / +10.2%−55.1% / −81.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −1.7%Enter above $94.41 (+2.6%)24% 190/777+0.5% / +10.2%−56.7% / −81.9%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −13.3%Enter above $95.24 (+3.5%)36% 91/253+3.2% / +10.2%−60.3% / −81.9%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINJan 20, 2026 +0.0%Exit below $87.11 (−5.3%)21% 6/28+9.5% / +11.0%−42.7% / −81.9%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Enter above $144.04 (+56.6%)35% 41/117+9.9% / +10.2%−27.5% / −81.9%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Not on one close31% 32/103+9.4% / +10.2%−39.6% / −81.9%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Enter above $98.41 (+7.0%)42% 59/139+7.9% / +10.2%−59.2% / −81.9%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 −7.3%Not on one close45% 139/309+6.2% / +10.2%−35.9% / −81.9%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −13.3%Enter above $95.26 (+3.5%)35% 212/613+1.7% / +10.2%−53.0% / −81.9%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Enter above $101.67 (+10.5%)44% 93/213+9.5% / +10.2%−38.0% / −81.9%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −1.7%Enter above $95.32 (+3.6%)35% 184/525−2.2% / +10.2%−71.1% / −81.9%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTMay 26, 2026 −8.8%Enter above $98.69 (+7.3%)33% 46/141+1.5% / +10.2%−29.6% / −81.9%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −9.8%Enter above $120.13 (+30.6%)32% 54/171+7.6% / +10.2%−46.3% / −81.9%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −6.8%Enter above $94.38 (+2.6%)34% 70/207+4.6% / +10.2%−60.3% / −81.9%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Enter above $103.17 (+12.1%)37% 75/201+9.2% / +10.2%−47.5% / −81.9%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −11.5%Enter above $96.73 (+5.1%)34% 85/249+1.5% / +10.2%−65.9% / −81.9%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTJun 1, 2026 −4.1%Enter above $118.05 (+28.3%)34% 47/139+7.1% / +10.2%−46.7% / −81.9%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyOUTSep 11, 2026 −6.8%Enter above $153.25 (+66.6%)29% 26/89+11.5% / +10.2%−31.8% / −81.9%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −11.9%Not on one close39% 74/189+3.6% / +10.2%−35.2% / −81.9%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTMar 27, 2026 +7.2%Not on one close40% 12/30+2.0% / +10.2%−18.2% / −81.9%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −9.8%Enter above $98.68 (+7.3%)41% 47/115+8.5% / +10.2%−44.2% / −81.9%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTMay 22, 2026 −10.3%Enter above $107.11 (+16.4%)27% 42/155−1.3% / +10.2%−43.7% / −81.9%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTMay 29, 2026 −6.7%Enter above $109.88 (+19.4%)35% 31/89+6.1% / +10.2%−31.0% / −81.9%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Enter above $151.49 (+64.7%)39% 34/87+7.3% / +10.2%−31.5% / −81.9%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −9.8%Not on one close42% 43/103+7.2% / +10.2%−25.2% / −81.9%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTMay 22, 2026 −10.3%Enter above $102.15 (+11.0%)34% 51/151+2.1% / +10.2%−31.2% / −81.9%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −11.5%Enter above $97.63 (+6.1%)35% 75/215+0.8% / +10.2%−41.5% / −81.9%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −9.8%Enter above $99.07 (+7.7%)36% 66/183+4.2% / +10.2%−48.8% / −81.9%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Enter above $98.39 (+6.9%)40% 61/151+8.9% / +10.2%−50.0% / −81.9%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −1.3%Enter above $111.39 (+21.1%)39% 26/67+6.2% / +10.2%−50.5% / −81.9%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −9.8%Enter above $100.42 (+9.2%)28% 89/319+4.3% / +10.2%−61.5% / −81.9%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTMay 5, 2026 −11.3%Not on one close26% 52/202+0.9% / +10.2%−26.7% / −81.9%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTJul 15, 2026 −12.0%Enter above $100.28 (+9.0%)33% 41/124+0.6% / +10.2%−22.8% / −81.9%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −1.7%Enter above $95.29 (+3.6%)34% 233/683+1.0% / +10.2%−60.7% / −81.9%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −11.5%Not on one close30% 13/43+2.6% / +10.2%−16.2% / −81.9%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINApr 30, 2026 −11.6%Exit below $81.77 (−11.1%)38% 10/26+8.4% / +10.8%−54.7% / −81.9%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINMar 31, 2026 +3.9%Not on one close44% 14/32+9.9% / +10.8%−42.4% / −81.9%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 −2.1%Enter above $90.92 (−1.2%)27% 9/33+4.6% / +10.8%−67.2% / −81.9%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −9.8%Not on one close14% 21/149+5.8% / +10.2%−53.1% / −81.9%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endINApr 30, 2026 −11.6%Exit below $92.22 (+0.2%)35% 7/20+6.6% / +10.2%−35.8% / −81.9%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyOUTSep 4, 2026 −11.9%Enter above $105.66 (+14.9%)36% 31/85+12.7% / +10.2%−23.6% / −81.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −2.9%Exit below $91.33 (−0.7%)30% 145/479−3.7% / +10.2%−78.4% / −81.9%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −1.7%Enter above $93.84 (+2.0%)29% 230/789−0.8% / +10.2%−63.2% / −81.9%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −4.3%Exit below $83.80 (−8.9%)39% 128/329+1.3% / +10.2%−61.5% / −81.9%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINFeb 27, 2026 −5.0%Exit below $23.30 (−74.7%)23% 3/13+12.4% / +10.6%−50.6% / −81.9%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTAug 18, 2026 −13.2%Enter above $98.09 (+6.6%)26% 168/653−3.6% / +10.2%−67.4% / −81.9%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyOUTSep 2, 2026 −13.8%Enter above $93.44 (+1.6%)37% 98/262+4.7% / +10.2%−64.9% / −81.9%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −9.8%Enter above $121.37 (+31.9%)31% 53/171+6.6% / +10.2%−50.2% / −81.9%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 −2.1%Enter above $96.04 (+4.4%)35% 26/74+12.6% / +10.8%−37.2% / −81.9%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINMar 31, 2026 +3.9%Not on one close43% 12/28+7.5% / +10.6%−42.4% / −79.1%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −2.1%Not on one close33% 10/30+6.7% / +10.8%−45.0% / −81.9%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −13.4%Enter above $95.10 (+3.4%)33% 111/337+2.1% / +10.2%−56.9% / −81.9%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINJun 5, 2026 −2.9%Not on one close68% 28/41+3.2% / +10.2%−79.5% / −81.9%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 −3.0%Not on one close60% 178/298+4.5% / +10.2%−19.6% / −81.9%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −3.6%Not on one close69% 265/386+9.2% / +10.2%−37.7% / −81.9%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyINOct 9, 2026 +1.4%Sell above $94.30 (+2.5%)64% 123/193+4.7% / +10.2%−56.1% / −81.9%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyINSep 14, 2026 −7.1%Not on one close56% 77/137+5.2% / +10.2%−68.4% / −81.9%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyINSep 28, 2026 −3.4%Not on one close61% 177/291+5.5% / +10.2%−68.5% / −81.9%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyINJun 3, 2026 −3.5%Not on one close49% 33/67+1.6% / +10.2%−77.3% / −81.9%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINNov 22, 2004 +788.1%Sell above $237.51 (+158.2%)–+10.2% / +10.2%−81.9% / −81.9%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTApr 9, 2025 +7.8%Not on one close59% 13/22+2.1% / +10.2%−23.2% / −81.9%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −4.3%Not on one close42% 144/342+2.4% / +10.2%−58.0% / −81.9%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Not on one close58% 250/430+7.4% / +10.2%−56.7% / −81.9%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Buy below $92.00 (0.0%)56% 1053/1874+1.9% / +10.2%−50.8% / −81.9%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINSep 9, 2026 −8.0%Sell above $96.15 (+4.5%)52% 39/75+3.6% / +10.2%−25.0% / −81.9%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −1.3%Enter above $93.25 (+1.4%)35% 385/1101−2.4% / +10.2%−70.4% / −81.9%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINAug 31, 2026 −13.4%Sell above $95.85 (+4.2%)55% 61/111+4.8% / +10.2%−49.6% / −81.9%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −13.4%Not on one close24% 188/781−0.4% / +10.2%−62.1% / −81.9%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Not on one close40% 82/204+1.0% / +10.2%−74.0% / −81.9%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyINMar 24, 2025 −0.1%Not on one close55% 16/29−0.5% / +10.2%−80.2% / −81.9%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyOUTApr 20, 2026 −5.9%Enter above $101.98 (+10.9%)31% 21/67+8.4% / +10.3%−45.5% / −81.9%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −1.7%Enter above $94.80 (+3.0%)25% 189/755+0.0% / +10.2%−65.7% / −81.9%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −11.9%Enter above $112.17 (+21.9%)31% 117/375+0.4% / +10.2%−59.4% / −81.9%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 1, 2026 −3.0%Not on one close33% 201/606−4.5% / +10.2%−76.1% / −81.9%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 −7.3%Not on one close41% 40/97+12.6% / +10.7%−29.8% / −81.9%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyINOct 9, 2026 +1.4%Not on one close32% 327/1023−2.7% / +10.2%−72.1% / −81.9%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −1.7%Enter above $92.33 (+0.4%)46% 60/130+8.2% / +10.2%−74.5% / −81.9%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTSep 18, 2026 −4.0%Not on one close34% 43/127+2.3% / +10.2%−40.9% / −81.9%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTMar 26, 2026 +2.0%Not on one close40% 24/60+2.0% / +10.2%−8.1% / −81.9%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 −11.6%Buys Oct 3047% 20/43+7.4% / +10.2%−73.1% / −81.9%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 27, 2026 −4.9%Not on one close53% 23/43+8.7% / +10.2%−63.8% / −81.9%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTMay 20, 2026 −13.1%Window opens Oct 1649% 21/43+4.7% / +10.2%−67.8% / −81.9%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +8.2%Buys Dec 2345% 20/44+2.1% / +10.2%−12.4% / −81.9%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −2.6%Buys Oct 2945% 237/526−1.3% / +10.2%−47.1% / −81.9%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −2.1%Sells Jun 3045% 5/11+6.6% / +10.2%−35.2% / −81.9%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −11.9%Buys Nov 2447% 189/400+2.1% / +10.2%−9.3% / −81.9%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +1.5%Not on one close30% 6/20+2.6% / +10.2%−55.4% / −81.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Sells Oct 1652% 1183/2284+11.1% / +10.2%−76.4% / −81.9%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −5.5%Buys Oct 2749% 170/348+2.5% / +10.2%−27.2% / −81.9%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −2.9%Sells Oct 1648% 259/541+4.9% / +10.2%−60.3% / −81.9%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 3, 2005Always in–+10.2%−81.9%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureHigh6 of 10 points
  • Market swings2/3
  • Past crashes1/2
  • Debt3/3
  • Run-up0/2
  • It moves about 1.1× its index.
  • It fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
  • It owes more than it owns (negative equity).

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Apr 2010

SBUX−73%
S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Oct 2020

SBUX−38%
S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Apr 2023

SBUX−40%
S&P 500−25%
  • Beta1.13Moves about 1.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
  • Downside capture213%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 213% as much on average.
  • Two-year change+1%
  • From 52-week high−15%
  • EquityNegativeOwes more than it owns.
  • Net debt / EBITDA3.3×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
  • Interest cover5.6×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Restaurants · Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items.

Size and valuation
Market cap$105BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$38.3BTotal sales. The market values it at 2.7× sales.
P/E ratio53.2×Buyers pay $53 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E29.4×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Profit and growth
Profit margin5.2%Keeps 5¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+4.5%The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth−25.4%Same comparison for profit.
Free cash flow$3.1BCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equity−$8.1BNegative: it owes more than it owns.
Total debt$22.5BLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$3.6BCash and short-term investments on hand.
Interest cover5.6×Interest is easily paid from profit.
Wall Street
Average analyst target$110.9721% above the close, from 29 analysts (range $82.00 to $143.00).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield2.70%Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-28; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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