Media & telecom

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

$153.73 +1.2% on the day·−30.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Sell11 / 100

Sell: 11 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (19%) scores 19 and lifts it; Off the high (−32% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	TMUS	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	19%	19	40	7.6
Off the high	−32% from its 1-year high	0	30	0.0
Trend	−18% vs 200-day	11	30	3.3

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for TMUS

Factor	TMUS	Points	What it is
Plays in	19%	19	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+54% · 25 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.6 · buy	69	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	16.1×	77	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	10.7×	81	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.59	84	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	1.8×	74	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	2.9×	51	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	2.7%	63	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	−10%	23	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+10%	39	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	11%	51	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	19%	67	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	1.62×	13	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−32% from its 1-year high	0	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−18% vs 200-day	11	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−30%	10	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on TMUS

19 of the 100 plays hold TMUS right now.
The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say out.
It closed 18% below its 200-day average and 32% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it carries 2.0× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $236.84, 54% above the close (25 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in19 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.82×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−18%). Higher than on 10% of days since 2008. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TMUS now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn TMUS: right 18 of 40 · Out since Apr 4, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn TMUS: right 33 of 87 · Out since Sep 17, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn TMUS: right 10 of 22 · Out since Nov 28, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn TMUS: right 109 of 171 · In since Oct 9, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn TMUS: right 20 of 32 · Out since Feb 20, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn TMUS: right 63 of 121 · In since Oct 2, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn TMUS: right 25 of 39 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

TMUS, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved TMUS lately

Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 9−13.9% against the S&P 5005.5× a normal day

TMUS −13.3%, the S&P 500 +0.6% that session.

Price target cutAnalyst rating · Oct 9, 8:45 am ET
Scotiabank cut its price target to $212 from $217, keeping Sector Outperform.
After price target cuts, stocks did worse than their index at the first close after the news 53% of the time (1,291 of 2,458 on 197 stocks; median move −0.1%). Low predictability
TMUS after price target cuts: behind its index at the first close after the news 10 of 15 times (median −1.4%).
HeadlineReuters · Oct 9, 1:45 pm ET
US, European telecom stocks slide as SpaceX spectrum deal rattles sector
HeadlineSimply Wall Street · Oct 9, 3:00 am ET
T-Mobile US (NasdaqGS:TMUS) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions
HeadlineMarketBeat · Oct 8, 7:48 pm ET
T-Mobile US, Inc. $TMUS Stock Sold by Overbrook Management Corp

Thu Sep 17−6.7% against the S&P 5002.5× a normal day

TMUS −5.6%, the S&P 500 +1.1% that session; −8.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TMUS was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TMUS starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.1%. The 9 other Media & telecom stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.5% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.91.

Over its last 12 reports, TMUS's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±5.3% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 7 times.
TMUS after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 28 of 40 times (median +2.6%).
TMUS after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 2 of 5 times (median +1.9%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on TMUS

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following1 of 30 in Breakouts & channels0 of 15 in Momentum0 of 17 in Mean reversion9 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on TMUS went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2007. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $164.59 (+7.1%)	25% 144/572	−4.9% / +5.7%	−77.9% / −86.3%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Apr 2, 2026 −22.8%	Enter above $177.37 (+15.4%)	23% 20/86	+8.7% / +10.1%	−58.0% / −74.7%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −14.8%	Enter above $171.23 (+11.4%)	21% 66/320	+0.6% / +7.2%	−48.2% / −80.1%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Apr 25, 2025 −32.1%	Not on one close	18% 28/156	+4.5% / +9.1%	−35.4% / −73.2%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Sep 12, 2025 −35.1%	Enter above $377.27 (+145.4%)	18% 12/68	+5.1% / +9.5%	−57.8% / −74.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jun 13, 2025 −30.9%	Enter above $210.98 (+37.2%)	21% 18/86	+1.7% / +9.4%	−57.8% / −74.7%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2025 −34.4%	Enter above $186.47 (+21.3%)	39% 11/28	+13.4% / +9.3%	−52.3% / −74.7%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Mar 9, 2026 −28.5%	Enter above $188.18 (+22.4%)	17% 21/124	+7.6% / +9.3%	−48.4% / −74.7%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Oct 17, 2025 −31.5%	Not on one close	36% 8/22	+10.5% / +9.3%	−52.3% / −74.7%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2025 −34.5%	Not on one close	21% 15/72	+8.8% / +10.4%	−49.6% / −74.7%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −8.6%	Enter above $199.16 (+29.6%)	33% 39/118	+3.0% / +6.6%	−68.1% / −80.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $164.11 (+6.8%)	24% 174/725	−6.3% / +5.4%	−73.0% / −86.3%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $188.12 (+22.4%)	32% 74/230	−1.2% / +10.3%	−62.5% / −74.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Nov 3, 2025 −22.8%	Enter above $591.87 (+285.0%)	40% 8/20	+11.0% / +10.0%	−52.3% / −70.5%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Apr 1, 2026 −23.9%	Enter above $271.59 (+76.7%)	28% 32/116	+6.6% / +7.5%	−41.9% / −77.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Not on one close	24% 24/102	+6.5% / +6.7%	−43.8% / −82.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Jul 23, 2026 −9.3%	Enter above $169.00 (+9.9%)	39% 53/137	+4.4% / +5.2%	−43.2% / −86.3%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −15.9%	Not on one close	42% 124/295	+4.1% / +5.2%	−64.4% / −86.3%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $158.24 (+2.9%)	34% 186/547	−1.3% / +6.2%	−79.0% / −86.3%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $185.58 (+20.7%)	40% 74/187	+6.1% / +5.4%	−49.0% / −86.3%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $170.85 (+11.1%)	37% 161/437	−2.2% / +6.5%	−86.2% / −86.3%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Mar 12, 2026 −27.5%	Enter above $171.92 (+11.8%)	26% 37/141	−1.2% / +5.3%	−55.1% / −86.3%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $221.12 (+43.8%)	27% 47/173	+3.3% / +4.7%	−61.2% / −86.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −8.6%	Enter above $154.52 (+0.5%)	28% 58/205	−0.3% / +5.5%	−78.7% / −86.3%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Enter above $501.69 (+226.3%)	33% 67/205	+3.9% / +4.7%	−70.1% / −86.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −8.3%	Exit below $147.90 (−3.8%)	32% 72/225	−7.9% / +10.3%	−84.2% / −74.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $216.78 (+41.0%)	28% 44/160	+6.1% / +7.2%	−57.1% / −80.1%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Apr 7, 2026 −22.5%	Enter above $283.94 (+84.7%)	34% 26/76	+9.3% / +7.2%	−51.3% / −80.1%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Not on one close	36% 64/178	+3.7% / +8.8%	−34.4% / −74.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Apr 4, 2025 −36.3%	Not on one close	45% 18/40	+1.9% / +4.7%	−20.9% / −86.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Enter above $180.93 (+17.7%)	33% 36/109	+0.9% / +5.2%	−63.5% / −86.3%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −13.3%	Enter above $180.93 (+17.7%)	32% 41/128	−0.2% / +5.4%	−52.6% / −86.3%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Mar 18, 2026 −24.8%	Enter above $189.87 (+23.5%)	26% 23/88	+1.6% / +5.4%	−53.4% / −86.3%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2025 −35.3%	Enter above $496.62 (+223.0%)	29% 24/82	+5.5% / +7.2%	−31.2% / −80.1%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Mar 18, 2026 −24.8%	Not on one close	36% 34/94	+2.2% / +5.2%	−61.1% / −86.3%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Mar 11, 2026 −27.2%	Enter above $181.32 (+17.9%)	30% 38/128	−0.2% / +5.4%	−49.2% / −86.3%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −13.3%	Enter above $176.11 (+14.6%)	30% 57/189	−0.2% / +5.2%	−48.5% / −86.3%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Enter above $182.90 (+19.0%)	35% 56/162	+2.2% / +5.6%	−57.1% / −86.3%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Enter above $166.10 (+8.0%)	36% 55/151	+3.0% / +5.2%	−69.2% / −86.3%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Enter above $190.13 (+23.7%)	38% 33/87	+8.6% / +6.2%	−57.3% / −86.3%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −13.3%	Enter above $172.81 (+12.4%)	25% 73/287	+0.4% / +5.3%	−75.8% / −86.3%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Feb 25, 2026 −28.6%	Not on one close	27% 36/133	−0.8% / +5.2%	−25.1% / −86.3%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −15.4%	Not on one close	32% 38/118	−0.6% / +5.4%	−45.7% / −86.3%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $166.58 (+8.4%)	32% 200/629	−5.6% / +6.4%	−77.2% / −86.3%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Mar 14, 2024 −1.5%	Not on one close	38% 15/40	+2.6% / +10.2%	−18.9% / −74.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −25.3%	Enter above $213.30 (+38.7%)	25% 5/20	+8.3% / +9.0%	−64.4% / −74.7%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −25.3%	Not on one close	45% 10/22	+8.6% / +9.0%	−65.2% / −74.7%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −25.3%	Enter above $237.17 (+54.3%)	40% 8/20	+9.0% / +9.0%	−63.9% / −74.7%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Apr 1, 2026 −23.9%	Not on one close	24% 24/98	+7.1% / +7.0%	−35.8% / −80.1%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −25.3%	Enter above $208.16 (+35.4%)	50% 8/16	+7.7% / +9.8%	−52.3% / −74.7%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Apr 2, 2026 −22.8%	Enter above $187.63 (+22.1%)	33% 29/88	+4.9% / +8.6%	−54.9% / −75.4%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $167.76 (+9.1%)	31% 127/409	−7.2% / +4.7%	−86.3% / −86.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $161.44 (+5.0%)	30% 205/691	−6.1% / +4.7%	−70.3% / −86.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $174.12 (+13.3%)	34% 99/292	−4.7% / +5.6%	−78.2% / −86.3%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 −26.0%	Enter above $178.71 (+16.2%)	67% 6/9	+14.2% / +10.5%	−59.8% / −70.1%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −15.3%	Enter above $176.97 (+15.1%)	27% 149/550	−4.4% / +5.2%	−74.5% / −86.3%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Enter above $212.91 (+38.5%)	34% 79/231	−1.3% / +7.2%	−75.0% / −80.1%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $223.40 (+45.3%)	28% 47/168	+5.0% / +7.2%	−49.5% / −80.1%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 −26.0%	Enter above $169.52 (+10.3%)	44% 25/57	+11.1% / +9.0%	−52.3% / −74.7%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −25.3%	Not on one close	35% 7/20	+7.1% / +16.5%	−65.2% / −70.1%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −25.3%	Not on one close	42% 11/26	+7.1% / +9.0%	−68.0% / −74.7%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $174.09 (+13.2%)	32% 97/300	−0.4% / +10.3%	−72.1% / −74.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Apr 16, 2026 −21.1%	Not on one close	56% 15/27	−0.8% / +6.1%	−75.4% / −86.3%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2025 −34.5%	Not on one close	57% 128/226	+2.3% / +9.3%	−51.4% / −74.7%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 14, 2025 −31.6%	Not on one close	70% 232/332	+13.4% / +9.3%	−50.7% / −74.7%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Sell above $163.18 (+6.1%)	64% 109/171	+6.3% / +5.2%	−58.9% / −86.3%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 −12.7%	Not on one close	64% 79/123	+2.9% / +5.5%	−65.6% / −86.3%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	61% 154/253	−0.8% / +6.2%	−77.8% / −86.3%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Jul 16, 2026 −19.8%	Not on one close	58% 30/52	+4.0% / +6.6%	−70.8% / −86.3%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Feb 1, 2008 +427.1%	Sell above $454.83 (+195.9%)	–	+9.3% / +9.3%	−74.7% / −74.7%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Sell above $157.13 (+2.2%)	53% 10/19	+2.1% / +10.3%	−27.2% / −74.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Not on one close	43% 130/300	−4.4% / +5.4%	−81.3% / −86.3%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	55% 227/414	+0.8% / +5.4%	−76.8% / −86.3%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Buy below $153.73 (0.0%)	56% 866/1538	+6.1% / +6.5%	−57.6% / −86.3%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Feb 4, 2026 −22.6%	Not on one close	62% 48/78	+5.0% / +9.3%	−45.3% / −74.7%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $165.10 (+7.4%)	36% 345/959	−6.9% / +4.7%	−83.4% / −86.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −5.7%	Sell above $166.37 (+8.2%)	54% 57/105	+0.5% / +5.2%	−82.5% / −86.3%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	28% 187/676	−1.5% / +5.2%	−75.0% / −86.3%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −15.3%	Not on one close	37% 64/175	−0.6% / +5.2%	−75.8% / −86.3%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Feb 20, 2026 −27.5%	Not on one close	62% 20/32	+6.0% / +6.1%	−53.2% / −86.3%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Feb 1, 2022 +47.6%	Not on one close	41% 24/59	+8.8% / +9.0%	−44.0% / −74.7%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above $190.19 (+23.7%)	25% 169/675	−7.7% / +5.6%	−80.2% / −86.3%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −13.2%	Enter above $241.08 (+56.8%)	33% 110/333	+0.1% / +5.2%	−72.5% / −86.3%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +3.5%	Not on one close	34% 179/531	−6.7% / +5.2%	−80.8% / −86.3%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −14.7%	Not on one close	27% 29/107	+3.5% / +9.1%	−65.8% / −74.7%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −6.1%	Not on one close	35% 284/810	−1.6% / +7.0%	−75.9% / −80.1%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −6.1%	Not on one close	52% 63/121	−1.1% / +6.6%	−84.0% / −86.3%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.6%	Not on one close	38% 33/86	+2.7% / +6.5%	−61.2% / −86.3%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	May 6, 2026 −19.5%	Not on one close	44% 24/54	+1.0% / +5.5%	−43.6% / −86.3%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −20.5%	Buys Oct 30	64% 25/39	+10.6% / +6.5%	−44.5% / −86.3%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 −6.6%	Window opens Apr 1	59% 23/39	+5.7% / +4.7%	−59.5% / −86.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 −21.6%	Window opens Oct 16	61% 23/38	+9.1% / +4.7%	−40.3% / −86.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −22.2%	Buys Dec 23	58% 22/38	+2.7% / +6.5%	−11.2% / −86.3%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −6.6%	Buys Oct 29	51% 239/468	+4.1% / +6.5%	−57.4% / −86.3%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −5.7%	Sells Jun 30	60% 6/10	+6.3% / +6.5%	−21.6% / −86.3%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −15.3%	Buys Nov 24	51% 179/354	+3.4% / +6.5%	−16.8% / −86.3%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +15.5%	Not on one close	44% 8/18	+2.5% / +9.2%	−75.0% / −74.7%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1032/2033	+2.2% / +6.5%	−89.2% / −86.3%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −12.8%	Buys Oct 27	48% 150/310	+3.5% / +6.5%	−19.1% / −86.3%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −6.1%	Sells Oct 16	53% 256/482	+4.4% / +6.5%	−71.3% / −86.3%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Apr 19, 2007	Always in	–	+6.7%	−86.3%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt1/3
Run-up0/2

It carries 2.0× as much debt as equity.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Aug 2015

TMUS−58%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high May 2020

TMUS−26%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jan 2022 · back to its old high Feb 2022

TMUS−11%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.35Moves about 0.3× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture30%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 30% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change−25%
From 52-week high−32%
Debt to equity2.03×
Net debt / EBITDA3.4×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover4.8×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Telecom Services · T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale and other services customers.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$165B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$92.2B	Total sales. The market values it at 1.8× sales.
P/E ratio	16.1×	Buyers pay $16 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	10.7×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	2.9×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	11.5%	Keeps 11¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+9.7%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−9.7%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	18.8%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$11.3B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$59.2B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$120B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$2.8B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	2.03×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	4.8×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$236.84	54% above the close, from 25 analysts (range $169.00 to $296.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	2.65%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

TMUS: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Media & telecom: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

Another stock

Email me Test a theory