Software & devices

Palantir (PLTR)

$208.67 −0.2% on the day·+17.8% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy86 / 100

Buy: 86 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 99 and lifts it; Plays in (68%) scores 68 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	PLTR	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	68%	68	40	27.2
Off the high	at its 1-year high	99	30	29.7
Trend	+37% vs 200-day	97	30	29.1

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for PLTR

Factor	PLTR	Points	What it is
Plays in	68%	68	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	−2% · 26 analysts	26	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.9 · buy	56	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	178.4×	4	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	88.7×	1	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.85	36	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	87.1×	1	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	54.8×	1	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+290%	95	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+79%	93	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	49%	94	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	31%	84	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.00×	99	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	at its 1-year high	99	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+37% vs 200-day	97	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+18%	53	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	6/10 · high	40	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on PLTR

68 of the 100 plays hold PLTR right now.
The trend-following, breakout, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 37% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 2.5× its index and fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $205.27, 2% below the close (26 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in68 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh6 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.37×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+37%). Higher than on 65% of days since 2021. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about PLTR now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn PLTR: right 8 of 16 · Out since Sep 23, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn PLTR: right 30 of 78 · In since Sep 23, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn PLTR: right 2 of 4 · In since Sep 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn PLTR: right 28 of 44 · Out since May 28, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn PLTR: right 10 of 18 · Out since Jul 17, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn PLTR: right 22 of 34 · Out since Jul 10, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn PLTR: right 4 of 12 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

PLTR, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved PLTR lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 9+4.6% against the S&P 5001.0× a normal day

PLTR +5.2%, the S&P 500 +0.6% that session.

Initiated at BuyAnalyst rating · Oct 9, 9:15 am ET
Barclays started coverage at Overweight. Target $265.
After new coverage at Buy, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 66% of the time (413 of 628 on 158 stocks; median move +0.7%). High predictability
PLTR after new coverage at Buy: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 5 of 8 times (median +1.8%).
HeadlineYahoo Finance · Oct 8, 4:46 pm ET
Palantir stock nears all-time high after Goldman Sachs upgrade highlights next phase of growth
HeadlineThe Motley Fool · Oct 9, 8:56 pm ETafter that close
Why Palantir Stock Powered to a More Than 5% Gain Today
HeadlineYahoo Finance · Oct 9, 4:05 pm ETafter that close
Palantir stock hits all-time high after Wall Street grows bullish on next phase of growth

Thu Sep 3+6.7% against the S&P 5001.3× a normal day

PLTR +7.7%, the S&P 500 +1.1% that session; −1.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on PLTR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for PLTR starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.1%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.9% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 2−6.3% against the S&P 5001.3× a normal day

PLTR −5.8%, the S&P 500 +0.5% that session; −5.8% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on PLTR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for PLTR starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +0.5%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.2% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on PLTR

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following27 of 30 in Breakouts & channels13 of 15 in Momentum13 of 17 in Mean reversion2 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on PLTR went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2020. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +20.4%	Exit below $191.65 (−8.2%)	33% 49/150	+24.9% / +43.2%	−52.9% / −84.6%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +21.3%	Exit below $155.70 (−25.4%)	21% 6/29	+31.4% / +54.0%	−46.1% / −79.1%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $178.28 (−14.6%)	24% 20/85	+22.4% / +47.1%	−53.0% / −79.1%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jan 8, 2026 +18.0%	Enter above $705.67 (+238.2%)	21% 9/42	+29.2% / +53.9%	−46.1% / −77.6%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +12.0%	Exit below $150.92 (−27.7%)	33% 5/15	+63.9% / +50.9%	−40.6% / −79.1%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +17.5%	Exit below $172.65 (−17.3%)	25% 4/16	+65.3% / +49.7%	−40.6% / −77.6%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +12.0%	Exit below $148.76 (−28.7%)	20% 2/10	+44.3% / +50.0%	−42.5% / −79.1%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $152.29 (−27.0%)	7% 2/27	+62.3% / +54.5%	−44.6% / −79.1%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +23.1%	Not on one close	50% 3/6	+75.6% / +54.5%	−40.6% / −79.1%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +17.5%	Exit below $152.29 (−27.0%)	20% 2/10	+62.3% / +51.7%	−40.6% / −79.1%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +21.3%	Exit below $173.20 (−17.0%)	25% 9/36	+6.9% / +42.9%	−63.1% / −79.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +20.4%	Exit below $202.11 (−3.1%)	26% 51/194	+9.3% / +41.3%	−64.1% / −84.6%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below $197.60 (−5.3%)	32% 21/66	+16.4% / +54.6%	−55.0% / −79.1%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 10, 2026 +19.1%	Not on one close	40% 2/5	+62.0% / +64.1%	−48.5% / −68.5%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +31.7%	Exit below $112.59 (−46.0%)	26% 8/31	+31.9% / +49.5%	−46.8% / −79.1%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $147.37 (−29.4%)	22% 8/36	+8.3% / +38.5%	−75.6% / −84.6%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Jul 2, 2026 +61.4%	Exit below $189.45 (−9.2%)	42% 17/40	+55.2% / +64.9%	−53.1% / −84.6%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +12.8%	Not on one close	43% 32/75	+43.1% / +64.9%	−51.6% / −84.6%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +12.8%	Exit below $176.15 (−15.6%)	39% 58/147	+42.0% / +68.9%	−58.3% / −84.6%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +8.8%	Exit below $164.55 (−21.1%)	37% 24/65	+38.8% / +62.4%	−50.5% / −84.6%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +14.0%	Exit below $196.47 (−5.8%)	41% 53/129	+45.4% / +66.6%	−40.8% / −84.6%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +10.0%	Exit below $182.36 (−12.6%)	39% 14/36	+29.4% / +56.8%	−44.9% / −84.6%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $100.02 (−52.1%)	26% 13/50	+12.2% / +43.8%	−66.7% / −84.6%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +17.5%	Exit below $200.69 (−3.8%)	35% 37/106	+25.1% / +65.6%	−73.8% / −84.6%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $143.09 (−31.4%)	26% 16/62	+20.2% / +43.8%	−61.7% / −84.6%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +12.8%	Exit below $188.26 (−9.8%)	37% 21/57	+24.4% / +54.6%	−50.5% / −79.1%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $103.70 (−50.3%)	27% 13/49	+16.7% / +47.1%	−53.0% / −79.1%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +31.7%	Not on one close	23% 6/26	+30.5% / +47.1%	−51.1% / −79.1%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +19.7%	Not on one close	39% 24/62	−4.6% / +49.6%	−61.7% / −79.1%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +8.8%	Not on one close	50% 8/16	+9.6% / +43.8%	−27.1% / −84.6%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $168.96 (−19.0%)	22% 9/41	+16.0% / +64.9%	−70.3% / −84.6%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $186.60 (−10.6%)	29% 12/41	+11.4% / +43.3%	−63.5% / −84.6%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +21.3%	Exit below $168.96 (−19.0%)	24% 7/29	+7.7% / +43.3%	−62.5% / −84.6%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 21, 2026 +16.0%	Exit below $186.70 (−10.5%)	38% 8/21	+38.3% / +47.1%	−24.9% / −79.1%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $165.71 (−20.6%)	30% 8/27	+5.4% / +64.9%	−66.4% / −84.6%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +8.8%	Exit below $192.21 (−7.9%)	24% 13/54	−5.0% / +41.3%	−62.3% / −84.6%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below $191.44 (−8.3%)	30% 20/66	+12.4% / +64.6%	−53.6% / −84.6%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Jul 20, 2026 +54.7%	Exit below $192.76 (−7.6%)	38% 21/55	+46.3% / +65.6%	−47.9% / −84.6%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jul 1, 2026 +66.0%	Exit below $189.34 (−9.3%)	33% 17/52	+35.8% / +64.9%	−65.5% / −84.6%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +8.8%	Exit below $162.27 (−22.2%)	38% 30/78	+36.1% / +64.6%	−56.0% / −84.6%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +14.0%	Exit below $194.08 (−7.0%)	31% 30/96	+28.5% / +58.1%	−69.0% / −84.6%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below $206.37 (−1.1%)	22% 13/59	+8.7% / +64.9%	−50.9% / −84.6%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +20.8%	Not on one close	43% 13/30	+3.3% / +41.3%	−23.9% / −84.6%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +20.4%	Exit below $182.03 (−12.8%)	34% 62/183	+36.8% / +67.8%	−78.4% / −84.6%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 +54.0%	Not on one close	50% 8/16	+4.4% / +49.0%	−30.7% / −79.1%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +11.6%	Enter above $207.87 (−0.4%)	60% 3/5	+47.8% / +53.6%	−49.6% / −77.6%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +11.6%	Flips at next check	50% 2/4	+51.4% / +53.6%	−48.2% / −77.6%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +50.0%	Enter above $231.14 (+10.8%)	67% 2/3	+53.2% / +53.6%	−40.6% / −77.6%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jan 15, 2026 +17.8%	Not on one close	15% 4/26	−0.7% / +44.5%	−42.2% / −79.1%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 +23.9%	Enter above $198.60 (−4.8%)	40% 4/10	+31.8% / +50.3%	−37.3% / −79.1%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +21.3%	Exit below $158.28 (−24.1%)	20% 5/25	+31.4% / +48.7%	−55.4% / −79.1%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.6%	Exit below $184.63 (−11.5%)	34% 40/119	+8.1% / +43.8%	−75.9% / −84.6%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +20.4%	Exit below $196.63 (−5.8%)	32% 61/191	+15.4% / +43.8%	−69.3% / −84.6%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below $151.97 (−27.2%)	40% 32/81	+17.1% / +42.8%	−46.9% / −84.6%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jan 31, 2023 +2,582.1%	Not on one close	100% 1/1	+127.9% / +124.0%	−48.2% / −48.2%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.0%	Exit below $198.68 (−4.8%)	29% 48/167	+20.1% / +64.9%	−55.8% / −84.6%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.0%	Exit below $135.65 (−35.0%)	41% 29/71	+18.1% / +47.1%	−48.5% / −79.1%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $96.91 (−53.6%)	24% 12/49	+11.9% / +47.1%	−61.3% / −79.1%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +12.0%	Exit below $163.76 (−21.5%)	33% 6/18	+31.1% / +53.6%	−54.8% / −77.6%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +11.6%	Flips at next check	50% 1/2	+104.8% / +134.9%	−48.2% / −48.2%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +11.6%	Not on one close	56% 5/9	+43.1% / +53.6%	−48.2% / −77.6%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below $189.27 (−9.3%)	34% 29/85	+13.4% / +54.6%	−51.3% / −79.1%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 5, 2026 +31.7%	Not on one close	50% 3/6	−6.9% / +67.6%	−70.4% / −84.6%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +14.3%	Buy $152.29–$193.62 (−7.2%)	55% 35/64	+16.2% / +54.5%	−20.5% / −79.1%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +19.7%	Buy $152.29–$192.07 (−8.0%)	62% 47/76	+27.8% / +54.5%	−33.6% / −79.1%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	May 28, 2026 +45.6%	Buy below $170.37 (−18.4%)	64% 28/44	+16.6% / +64.6%	−64.2% / −84.6%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +10.0%	Not on one close	57% 25/44	+12.3% / +64.3%	−73.8% / −84.6%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +11.3%	Not on one close	63% 48/76	+15.9% / +68.9%	−75.4% / −84.6%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 +16.6%	Not on one close	70% 14/20	+37.5% / +66.1%	−40.8% / −84.6%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Feb 19, 2025 +86.2%	Sell above $368.10 (+76.4%)	75% 3/4	+55.0% / +54.5%	−79.1% / −79.1%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Feb 3, 2026 +32.2%	Buy below $192.80 (−7.6%)	75% 9/12	+10.1% / +54.6%	−8.1% / −79.1%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +19.7%	Exit below $194.99 (−6.6%)	53% 46/87	+36.2% / +41.3%	−41.5% / −84.6%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +11.3%	Not on one close	54% 59/110	+9.6% / +41.3%	−78.2% / −84.6%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +10.2%	Buy below $208.67 (0.0%)	53% 264/497	+4.7% / +67.4%	−69.9% / −84.6%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +12.8%	Not on one close	71% 17/24	+28.6% / +54.5%	−29.1% / −79.1%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $209.20 (+0.3%)	36% 103/285	+26.0% / +43.8%	−74.8% / −84.6%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +69.6%	Buy below $190.82 (−8.6%)	80% 32/40	+52.8% / +65.6%	−58.2% / −84.6%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +18.4%	Not on one close	33% 60/184	+43.5% / +64.6%	−54.9% / −84.6%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +18.4%	Not on one close	49% 22/45	+56.8% / +64.9%	−49.1% / −84.6%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jul 17, 2026 +57.6%	Not on one close	56% 10/18	+18.7% / +67.6%	−47.4% / −84.6%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.2%	Not on one close	14% 1/7	+34.0% / +54.7%	−48.2% / −77.6%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +24.8%	Exit below $190.44 (−8.7%)	32% 53/168	+35.1% / +58.3%	−66.4% / −84.6%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +14.0%	Exit below $88.25 (−57.7%)	37% 33/90	+29.6% / +64.6%	−73.2% / −84.6%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.2%	Not on one close	38% 57/152	+39.9% / +64.9%	−70.5% / −84.6%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +28.3%	Not on one close	23% 5/22	+37.7% / +54.8%	−54.5% / −77.6%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.6%	Sell $175.86–$208.43 (−0.1%)	35% 77/222	+26.5% / +44.6%	−66.0% / −79.1%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Jul 10, 2026 +64.6%	Not on one close	65% 22/34	+32.6% / +66.3%	−79.1% / −84.6%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 +25.8%	Not on one close	50% 13/26	+49.5% / +66.3%	−48.5% / −84.6%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	May 22, 2026 +52.4%	Not on one close	50% 8/16	+5.5% / +66.6%	−19.6% / −84.6%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +50.0%	Buys Oct 30	33% 4/12	+17.3% / +67.4%	−83.6% / −84.6%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.5%	Window opens Apr 1	31% 4/13	+3.2% / +43.8%	−78.1% / −84.6%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +50.0%	Window opens Oct 16	25% 3/12	−0.6% / +43.8%	−78.5% / −84.6%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +19.9%	Buys Dec 23	25% 3/12	−3.0% / +67.4%	−22.0% / −84.6%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +10.2%	Buys Oct 29	47% 67/144	+14.5% / +67.4%	−51.3% / −84.6%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +11.6%	Sells Jun 30	67% 2/3	+16.1% / +67.4%	−31.7% / −84.6%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +19.7%	Buys Nov 24	53% 62/116	+4.9% / +67.4%	−18.0% / −84.6%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +3,150.3%	Not on one close	75% 3/4	+87.7% / +46.3%	−48.2% / −84.6%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.2%	Sells Oct 16	48% 305/629	+40.1% / +67.4%	−74.9% / −84.6%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +19.7%	Buys Oct 27	49% 47/96	+9.9% / +67.4%	−9.6% / −84.6%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +10.6%	Sells Oct 16	47% 70/149	+27.7% / +67.4%	−62.9% / −84.6%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Sep 30, 2020	Always in	–	+67.2%	−84.6%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh6 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up2/2

It moves about 2.5× its index.
It fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 380% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Jul 2023

PLTR−64%

S&P 500−25%

Beta2.48Moves about 2.5× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture−210%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -210% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+380%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−0%
Debt to equity0.03×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover407.5×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Software - Infrastructure · Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$501B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$6.2B	Total sales. The market values it at 81.5× sales.
P/E ratio	178.4×	Buyers pay $178 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	88.7×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	54.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	49.0%	Keeps 49¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+78.9%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+290.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	30.9%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$2.2B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$7.4B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$211M	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$9.4B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.03×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	407.5×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$205.27	2% below the close, from 26 analysts (range $80.00 to $265.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

PLTR: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Software & devices: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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