Industrials & materials

ADP (ADP)

$275.90 +0.8% on the day·−0.2% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy76 / 100

Buy: 76 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−3% from its 1-year high) scores 89 and lifts it; Plays in (59%) scores 59 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	ADP	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	59%	59	40	23.6
Off the high	−3% from its 1-year high	89	30	26.7
Trend	+17% vs 200-day	87	30	26.1

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ADP

Factor	ADP	Points	What it is
Plays in	59%	59	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+4% · 15 analysts	34	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.7 · hold	14	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	25.2×	49	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	20.6×	31	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	2.50	22	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	5.0×	37	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	18.2×	7	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	2.5%	60	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+10%	37	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+7%	30	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	20%	65	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	72%	96	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.91×	32	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−3% from its 1-year high	89	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+17% vs 200-day	87	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−0%	33	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	0/10 · low	100	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ADP

59 of the 100 plays hold ADP right now.
The trend-following and volume plays mostly say in; the breakout and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 17% above its 200-day average and 3% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $286.40, 4% above the close (15 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in59 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.17×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+17%). Higher than on 95% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ADP now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn ADP: right 28 of 62 · Out since Dec 11, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn ADP: right 18 of 44 · In since May 19, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn ADP: right 9 of 17 · Out since Nov 28, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn ADP: right 134 of 200 · Out since Apr 20, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn ADP: right 22 of 33 · In since Nov 18, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn ADP: right 55 of 116 · Out since Sep 1, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn ADP: right 20 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

ADP, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ADP lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Oct 8+3.0% against the S&P 5001.6× a normal day

ADP +2.5%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session.

HeadlineYahoo Finance · Oct 8, 9:59 am ET
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Has a Hidden Earnings Advantage From Higher Interest Rates

Fri Oct 2−3.1% against the S&P 5001.6× a normal day

ADP −2.4%, the S&P 500 +0.7% that session; +1.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ADP was found for this session. Headlines that day were commentary or previews rather than news. The S&P 500 moved +0.7%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 14+3.6% against the S&P 5001.6× a normal day

ADP +3.1%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; +1.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ADP was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ADP starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.77.

Over its last 12 reports, ADP's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±2.3% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 9 times.
ADP after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 10 of 17 times (median +2.0%).
ADP after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 2 of 3 times (median −0.2%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ADP

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following22 of 30 in Breakouts & channels4 of 15 in Momentum11 of 17 in Mean reversion8 of 15 in Volume & money flow9 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ADP went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $267.87 (−2.9%)	23% 160/690	+0.9% / +12.6%	−56.5% / −40.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	May 22, 2026 +24.2%	Exit below $255.38 (−7.4%)	18% 27/150	+2.0% / +12.6%	−54.7% / −40.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $265.16 (−3.9%)	21% 88/422	+3.0% / +12.6%	−48.4% / −40.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $271.15 (−1.7%)	20% 26/129	+1.4% / +12.6%	−33.2% / −40.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +2.3%	Exit below $238.10 (−13.7%)	22% 22/98	+4.4% / +12.6%	−33.5% / −40.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $261.64 (−5.2%)	31% 46/147	+1.6% / +12.6%	−42.9% / −40.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +4.2%	Exit below $234.32 (−15.1%)	25% 11/44	+6.2% / +12.6%	−40.6% / −40.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Jul 2, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below $235.39 (−14.7%)	17% 25/148	+6.4% / +12.6%	−36.8% / −40.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +5.2%	Not on one close	29% 10/34	+5.9% / +12.6%	−45.7% / −40.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Aug 24, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $235.39 (−14.7%)	17% 18/108	+5.2% / +12.6%	−36.0% / −40.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above $294.20 (+6.6%)	42% 57/137	+9.2% / +12.6%	−21.1% / −40.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +5.2%	Exit below $264.80 (−4.0%)	22% 173/792	−0.7% / +12.6%	−57.1% / −40.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $282.11 (+2.2%)	40% 100/249	+8.9% / +12.6%	−26.2% / −40.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jul 29, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	36% 8/22	+9.2% / +12.7%	−36.3% / −40.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $253.37 (−8.2%)	27% 41/150	+5.5% / +12.6%	−30.8% / −40.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	May 18, 2026 +25.5%	Exit below $250.42 (−9.2%)	23% 31/132	+5.2% / +12.6%	−32.3% / −40.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.6%	Enter above $275.94 (+0.0%)	34% 53/157	+5.6% / +12.6%	−24.9% / −40.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	41% 135/327	+6.4% / +12.6%	−30.3% / −40.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $253.33 (−8.2%)	33% 196/598	+4.2% / +12.6%	−31.4% / −40.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 +3.9%	Enter above $278.52 (+0.9%)	38% 82/217	+7.2% / +12.6%	−23.5% / −40.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $260.94 (−5.4%)	35% 182/525	+4.5% / +12.6%	−35.2% / −40.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	31% 48/155	+2.6% / +12.6%	−27.5% / −40.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $264.50 (−4.1%)	27% 59/220	+4.3% / +12.6%	−33.7% / −40.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $260.04 (−5.7%)	36% 55/152	+7.0% / +12.6%	−29.8% / −40.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $262.08 (−5.0%)	33% 76/228	+6.4% / +12.6%	−24.7% / −40.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	39% 85/220	+5.1% / +12.6%	−37.2% / −40.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $260.17 (−5.7%)	27% 45/166	+3.2% / +12.6%	−36.5% / −40.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	May 20, 2026 +26.8%	Exit below $221.54 (−19.7%)	26% 29/110	+5.7% / +12.6%	−30.7% / −40.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.0%	Not on one close	38% 76/199	+6.0% / +12.6%	−20.9% / −40.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Dec 11, 2025 +7.3%	Not on one close	45% 28/62	+1.9% / +12.6%	−15.0% / −40.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +4.7%	Enter above $277.62 (+0.6%)	36% 44/121	+7.0% / +12.6%	−21.8% / −40.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.6%	Enter above $277.62 (+0.6%)	35% 46/133	+5.1% / +12.6%	−22.1% / −40.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +4.7%	Enter above $286.17 (+3.7%)	29% 30/105	+3.6% / +12.6%	−25.3% / −40.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +4.7%	Enter above $285.65 (+3.5%)	31% 33/107	+4.1% / +12.6%	−23.2% / −40.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +4.9%	Not on one close	33% 38/115	+5.6% / +12.6%	−28.0% / −40.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.0%	Enter above $278.80 (+1.1%)	30% 43/143	+3.2% / +12.6%	−27.5% / −40.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.0%	Enter above $278.37 (+0.9%)	32% 74/228	+3.6% / +12.6%	−31.3% / −40.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.6%	Enter above $276.63 (+0.3%)	35% 63/179	+6.3% / +12.6%	−24.0% / −40.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $260.92 (−5.4%)	33% 55/168	+6.2% / +12.6%	−27.5% / −40.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	May 19, 2026 +26.9%	Exit below $255.89 (−7.3%)	41% 18/44	+8.2% / +12.6%	−33.4% / −40.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $268.76 (−2.6%)	27% 85/312	+5.4% / +12.6%	−30.6% / −40.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 +5.2%	Not on one close	31% 52/166	+2.3% / +12.6%	−14.2% / −40.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −1.2%	Not on one close	39% 69/178	+4.1% / +12.6%	−19.4% / −40.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $271.96 (−1.4%)	34% 224/665	+3.9% / +12.6%	−42.2% / −40.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Dec 4, 2024 −4.5%	Not on one close	18% 8/44	+1.0% / +12.6%	−17.4% / −40.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 +9.1%	Enter above $262.30 (−4.9%)	44% 12/27	+9.5% / +12.7%	−39.5% / −40.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 +11.2%	Flips at next check	53% 9/17	+9.9% / +12.7%	−39.5% / −40.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 −6.1%	Enter above $291.65 (+5.7%)	35% 17/48	+4.8% / +12.7%	−20.9% / −40.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Jun 10, 2026 +21.1%	Exit below $253.14 (−8.3%)	14% 27/200	+1.4% / +12.6%	−33.4% / −40.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 −3.0%	Exit below $242.80 (−12.0%)	33% 4/12	+8.9% / +12.6%	−39.5% / −40.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Jul 2, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below $252.76 (−8.4%)	29% 44/150	+2.9% / +12.6%	−46.2% / −40.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $249.15 (−9.7%)	33% 148/449	+5.4% / +12.6%	−32.5% / −40.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $268.06 (−2.8%)	26% 212/812	+0.6% / +12.6%	−57.6% / −40.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $234.05 (−15.2%)	40% 122/302	+8.5% / +12.6%	−27.7% / −40.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +4.2%	Exit below $217.76 (−21.1%)	29% 2/7	+10.7% / +13.2%	−39.5% / −40.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $272.29 (−1.3%)	27% 176/645	+1.8% / +12.6%	−25.5% / −40.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 +4.4%	Enter above $250.40 (−9.2%)	43% 108/253	+8.9% / +12.6%	−22.5% / −40.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $265.65 (−3.7%)	28% 60/214	+4.9% / +12.6%	−32.1% / −40.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +26.1%	Exit below $252.89 (−8.3%)	30% 27/91	+7.0% / +12.7%	−30.4% / −40.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 +11.2%	Flips at next check	40% 6/15	+8.8% / +13.3%	−39.5% / −40.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 +11.2%	Not on one close	47% 14/30	+9.7% / +12.7%	−39.5% / −40.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $261.57 (−5.2%)	35% 113/324	+7.4% / +12.6%	−30.1% / −40.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 14, 2026 +12.7%	Not on one close	71% 30/42	+11.3% / +12.6%	−33.2% / −40.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +4.5%	Buy $235.39–$254.93 (−7.6%)	60% 194/324	+2.3% / +12.6%	−23.5% / −40.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.5%	Buy $235.39–$262.36 (−4.9%)	66% 303/460	+4.5% / +12.6%	−43.2% / −40.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +38.2%	Buy below $253.72 (−8.0%)	67% 134/200	+5.2% / +12.6%	−34.4% / −40.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +2.8%	Exit below $274.16 (−0.6%)	62% 92/149	+5.9% / +12.6%	−33.2% / −40.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +2.8%	Exit below $273.19 (−1.0%)	57% 168/297	+4.5% / +12.6%	−34.5% / −40.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +6.9%	Not on one close	63% 46/73	+10.4% / +12.6%	−24.5% / −40.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,190.2%	Sell above $568.95 (+106.2%)	–	+12.6% / +12.6%	−40.8% / −40.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 13, 2026 +43.2%	Not on one close	50% 8/16	+1.8% / +12.6%	−6.1% / −40.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 −0.3%	Exit below $264.81 (−4.0%)	44% 144/327	+5.3% / +12.6%	−38.9% / −40.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +2.8%	Exit below $272.46 (−1.2%)	55% 242/438	+4.5% / +12.6%	−38.2% / −40.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +6.0%	Buy below $275.90 (0.0%)	59% 994/1682	+8.9% / +12.6%	−25.4% / −40.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	58% 59/102	+3.3% / +12.6%	−29.0% / −40.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +5.2%	Exit below $264.66 (−4.1%)	36% 386/1065	+2.6% / +12.6%	−38.7% / −40.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +6.9%	Sell above $263.26 (−4.6%)	54% 79/145	+6.2% / +12.6%	−33.2% / −40.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	25% 224/892	−0.3% / +12.6%	−46.3% / −40.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.9%	Not on one close	34% 66/196	+5.7% / +12.6%	−26.6% / −40.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Nov 18, 2025 +13.7%	Not on one close	67% 22/33	+7.8% / +12.6%	−29.0% / −40.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jun 29, 2026 +23.4%	Not on one close	27% 25/93	+9.7% / +12.8%	−39.5% / −40.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $271.77 (−1.5%)	25% 208/826	−0.2% / +12.6%	−53.4% / −40.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $245.05 (−11.2%)	36% 135/372	+4.8% / +12.6%	−43.6% / −40.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $275.90 (0.0%)	33% 191/580	+3.5% / +12.6%	−51.2% / −40.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	27% 28/104	+4.6% / +13.0%	−49.3% / −40.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +4.5%	Not on one close	33% 318/955	+4.8% / +12.6%	−41.4% / −40.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −2.1%	Not on one close	47% 55/116	+5.0% / +12.6%	−44.4% / −40.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +4.7%	Not on one close	26% 28/107	+1.7% / +12.6%	−26.0% / −40.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +1.7%	Not on one close	36% 21/58	+0.9% / +12.6%	−17.5% / −40.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +32.0%	Buys Oct 30	47% 20/43	+5.0% / +12.6%	−39.5% / −40.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +4.5%	Window opens Apr 1	45% 20/44	+4.2% / +12.6%	−39.5% / −40.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Jun 11, 2026 +23.9%	Window opens Oct 16	47% 20/43	+6.9% / +12.6%	−39.5% / −40.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +9.6%	Buys Dec 23	34% 15/44	+1.4% / +12.6%	−7.0% / −40.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +6.0%	Buys Oct 29	47% 248/526	+3.5% / +12.6%	−24.3% / −40.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +6.9%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+4.5% / +12.6%	−24.9% / −40.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.0%	Buys Nov 24	51% 205/400	+2.8% / +12.6%	−6.3% / −40.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +26.2%	Not on one close	20% 4/20	+5.0% / +12.6%	−40.8% / −40.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.8%	Sells Oct 16	52% 1182/2284	+7.8% / +12.6%	−37.7% / −40.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +1.0%	Buys Oct 27	46% 159/348	+1.1% / +12.6%	−29.0% / −40.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +7.1%	Sells Oct 16	49% 264/541	+6.1% / +12.6%	−30.4% / −40.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+12.6%	−40.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow0 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Mar 2010

ADP−34%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Dec 2020

ADP−39%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Feb 2022 · back to its old high Aug 2022

ADP−20%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.52Moves about 0.5× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture33%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 33% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+1%
From 52-week high−3%
Debt to equity0.91×
Net debt / EBITDA0.2×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover13.5×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Software - Application · Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$109B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$21.9B	Total sales. The market values it at 5.0× sales.
P/E ratio	25.2×	Buyers pay $25 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	20.6×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	18.2×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	20.1%	Keeps 20¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+6.8%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+9.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	72.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$5.2B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$6.0B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$5.5B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$4.2B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.91×	Moderate.
Interest cover	13.5×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$286.40	4% above the close, from 15 analysts (range $225.00 to $322.00).
Consensus rating	Hold	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	2.48%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

ADP: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Industrials & materials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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