Oct 13 close Sign in

Semiconductors

Astera Labs (ALAB)

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold47 / 100

Hold: 47 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+31% vs 200-day) scores 95 and lifts it; Off the high (−33% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightALABPointsWeightAdds
Plays in46%464018.4
Off the high−33% from its 1-year high0300.0
Trend+31% vs 200-day953028.5
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ALAB
FactorALABPointsWhat it is
Plays in46%46The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+20% · 22 analysts58How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating1.9 · buy56The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E161.1×5Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E50.9×3Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG––P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales47.0×2Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book32.7×3Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yieldnone0Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth+22%52Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth+98%96Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin31%84Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity21%71Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity0.03×90Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high−33% from its 1-year high0How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+31% vs 200-day95How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+63%83The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure4/10 · moderate60The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ALAB

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in46 / 99Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.31×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+31%). Higher than on 57% of days since 2025. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ALAB now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

ALAB, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ALAB lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 21+10.9% against the S&P 5001.7× a normal day

ALAB +12.4%, the S&P 500 +1.5% that session; +19.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ALAB was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ALAB starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.5%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved +4.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 14−11.3% against the S&P 5001.8× a normal day

ALAB −11.7%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; +4.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ALAB was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ALAB starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved −6.2% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Fri Sep 4+10.1% against the S&P 5001.6× a normal day

ALAB +9.8%, the S&P 500 −0.4% that session; +4.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ALAB was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ALAB starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.4%. The 22 other Semiconductors stocks Be The Puck covers moved +3.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ALAB

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ALAB went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2024. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Enter above $345.26 (+6.1%)30% 15/50+131.8% / +87.0%−60.4% / −63.7%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINSep 25, 2026 −10.8%Exit below $308.24 (−5.3%)20% 2/10+12.3% / +71.5%−64.1% / −60.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Enter above $332.47 (+2.2%)29% 8/28+142.3% / +168.6%−63.7% / −63.7%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −10.5%Exit below $316.91 (−2.6%)20% 1/5+0.7% / +160.2%−51.9% / −60.2%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyINMay 15, 2026 +39.9%Exit below $291.78 (−10.3%)0% 0/10−14.3% / +97.3%−69.3% / −63.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyINApr 17, 2026 +87.0%Exit below $291.78 (−10.3%)11% 1/9+71.5% / +161.0%−51.3% / −60.2%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINApr 30, 2026 +67.1%Exit below $262.65 (−19.3%)25% 1/4+12.3% / +64.8%−52.8% / −63.1%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINApr 13, 2026 +95.1%Exit below $248.32 (−23.7%)17% 1/6+30.1% / +59.2%−51.5% / −60.4%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINMay 22, 2026 +6.0%Not on one close25% 1/4−26.3% / +59.2%−60.4% / −60.4%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyINApr 13, 2026 +95.1%Exit below $248.32 (−23.7%)17% 1/6+57.3% / +94.5%−51.5% / −60.2%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyINSep 25, 2026 −10.8%Exit below $244.22 (−25.0%)73% 8/11+224.7% / +151.1%−43.8% / −63.7%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −6.2%Enter above $347.20 (+6.7%)24% 23/94+51.8% / +87.5%−55.5% / −63.7%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyINSep 4, 2026 +4.8%Exit below $259.83 (−20.2%)45% 9/20+133.9% / +119.2%−51.5% / −63.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINApr 16, 2026 +90.5%Not on one close50% 1/2+87.1% / +147.6%−56.4% / −60.2%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyINSep 23, 2026 −9.7%Exit below $281.93 (−13.4%)27% 3/11+71.3% / +170.7%−57.6% / −63.7%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −16.5%Exit below $303.60 (−6.7%)44% 4/9+63.5% / +119.4%−54.9% / −63.7%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyINAug 4, 2026 −10.0%Exit below $318.34 (−2.2%)50% 6/12+136.9% / +92.7%−49.3% / −63.7%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyINSep 29, 2026 −9.1%Not on one close59% 16/27+134.0% / +92.7%−48.4% / −63.7%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Enter above $403.84 (+24.1%)33% 19/57+98.9% / +79.6%−63.8% / −63.7%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −10.5%Exit below $251.63 (−22.7%)55% 11/20+111.3% / +73.0%−45.2% / −63.7%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Enter above $391.24 (+20.2%)30% 17/57+10.7% / +83.1%−72.5% / −63.7%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTJul 13, 2026 −10.1%Not on one close47% 9/19+117.0% / +73.5%−33.7% / −63.7%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −10.5%Exit below $242.04 (−25.6%)38% 5/13+92.8% / +101.0%−61.3% / −63.7%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Enter above $355.90 (+9.4%)32% 13/40+87.3% / +91.3%−64.9% / −63.7%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −10.5%Not on one close35% 6/17+127.7% / +101.0%−54.9% / −63.7%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTSep 15, 2026 +28.9%Not on one close33% 6/18+63.4% / +119.2%−56.5% / −63.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −10.5%Exit below $261.24 (−19.7%)31% 4/13+101.0% / +168.6%−61.5% / −63.7%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyINSep 24, 2026 −9.7%Exit below $115.22 (−64.6%)31% 4/13+74.4% / +168.6%−59.0% / −63.7%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTJun 26, 2026 −16.9%Enter above $326.85 (+0.4%)50% 7/14+224.2% / +83.2%−30.4% / −63.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTOct 14, 2025 +101.4%Not on one close33% 2/6−6.6% / +101.0%−28.4% / −63.7%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyINSep 21, 2026 −4.5%Exit below $255.10 (−21.6%)54% 7/13+77.2% / +92.7%−45.8% / −63.7%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Enter above $401.74 (+23.5%)42% 5/12+80.1% / +97.5%−45.7% / −63.7%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Enter above $401.74 (+23.5%)33% 4/12+37.2% / +97.5%−49.0% / −63.7%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −10.5%Exit below $318.16 (−2.2%)45% 5/11+63.1% / +168.6%−59.7% / −63.7%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Not on one close43% 6/14+69.8% / +92.7%−54.2% / −63.7%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Enter above $408.18 (+25.4%)90% 9/10+194.7% / +87.5%−20.8% / −63.7%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Enter above $402.84 (+23.8%)36% 8/22+103.5% / +85.2%−35.7% / −63.7%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Enter above $389.80 (+19.8%)50% 8/16+137.1% / +84.9%−49.3% / −63.7%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINSep 21, 2026 −4.5%Exit below $313.00 (−3.8%)41% 7/17+105.9% / +92.7%−60.9% / −63.7%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Enter above $403.51 (+24.0%)31% 17/55+30.2% / +71.1%−55.1% / −63.7%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Enter above $337.75 (+3.8%)37% 10/27+107.1% / +82.8%−60.4% / −63.7%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −6.2%Not on one close33% 10/30+8.7% / +92.7%−23.2% / −63.7%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTJun 8, 2026 −6.0%Not on one close60% 6/10+61.3% / +87.5%−20.9% / −63.7%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −6.2%Enter above $335.97 (+3.2%)28% 25/90+36.1% / +84.9%−65.8% / −63.7%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTJun 20, 2025 +249.6%Not on one close0% 0/2+0.5% / +130.1%−6.6% / −63.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINMay 30, 2025 +258.7%Exit below $193.57 (−40.5%)0% 0/1+131.7% / +196.0%−60.2% / −60.2%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINMay 30, 2025 +258.7%Not on one close50% 1/2+139.1% / +196.0%−60.2% / −60.2%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endINMay 30, 2025 +258.7%Exit below $215.24 (−33.9%)0% 0/1+131.7% / +196.0%−60.2% / −60.2%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTAug 12, 2024 +719.1%Not on one close–+4.1% / +163.3%0.0% / −63.7%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTJul 31, 2026 +4.6%Enter above $458.87 (+41.0%)0% 0/2−2.6% / +165.0%−48.3% / −60.2%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyINApr 17, 2026 +87.0%Exit below $323.31 (−0.6%)18% 2/11+73.4% / +148.4%−51.5% / −63.7%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Enter above $410.73 (+26.2%)23% 14/60+15.2% / +101.0%−56.1% / −63.7%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −6.2%Enter above $344.90 (+6.0%)31% 20/64+140.0% / +101.0%−51.8% / −63.7%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINSep 4, 2026 +4.8%Exit below $360.79 (+10.9%)32% 10/31+49.4% / +102.7%−52.0% / −63.7%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endOUTMar 31, 2026 +196.9%Not on one close–+3.8% / +719.5%0.0% / −48.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −14.9%Enter above $403.30 (+23.9%)29% 20/70+28.7% / +92.7%−46.7% / −63.7%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyINSep 4, 2026 +4.8%Exit below $291.14 (−10.5%)48% 11/23+96.3% / +168.6%−39.0% / −63.7%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −10.5%Exit below $233.89 (−28.1%)31% 4/13+101.6% / +168.6%−61.3% / −63.7%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endINApr 30, 2026 +67.1%Exit below $305.52 (−6.1%)20% 1/5+90.2% / +196.0%−48.3% / −60.2%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end–– –Not enough history–– / –– / –
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINJun 30, 2025 +259.9%Not on one close0% 0/1+132.7% / +196.0%−60.2% / −60.2%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above $366.99 (+12.8%)29% 10/35+79.5% / +119.2%−55.5% / −63.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTMay 30, 2025 +258.7%Not on one close75% 3/4+21.2% / +82.6%−50.3% / −63.7%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Sell above $334.70 (+2.9%)48% 13/27−18.3% / +59.2%−41.6% / −60.4%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINOct 8, 2026 −6.2%Sell above $389.80 (+19.8%)64% 25/39−0.3% / +59.2%−51.0% / −60.4%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 17, 2026 +10.8%Buy below $295.23 (−9.3%)71% 17/24+15.8% / +85.2%−62.5% / −63.7%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 −10.8%Not on one close40% 4/10−11.1% / +82.7%−64.4% / −63.7%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Not on one close60% 21/35−0.9% / +79.6%−68.0% / −63.7%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyOUTApr 15, 2026 +89.1%Not on one close62% 5/8+11.1% / +79.5%−46.6% / −63.7%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINJul 1, 2026 −24.5%Sell above $600.19 (+84.4%)100% 2/2+69.8% / +59.2%−60.4% / −60.4%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTOct 23, 2024 +380.0%Not on one close–+4.0% / +119.2%0.0% / −63.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 +26.6%Not on one close33% 10/30−36.3% / +87.5%−77.7% / −63.7%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −7.1%Enter above $338.16 (+3.9%)60% 35/58+61.8% / +87.5%−57.3% / −63.7%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Buy below $325.41 (0.0%)58% 119/204+35.0% / +89.2%−42.6% / −63.7%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 18, 2026 +7.3%Not on one close50% 4/8−23.7% / +59.2%−57.2% / −60.4%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −8.6%Enter above $367.26 (+12.9%)40% 45/113+56.8% / +101.0%−41.1% / −63.7%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 −8.6%Buy below $363.15 (+11.6%)42% 5/12+3.5% / +82.8%−58.7% / −63.7%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −4.9%Not on one close19% 17/90+60.1% / +85.2%−53.4% / −63.7%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +7.3%Not on one close33% 8/24+58.3% / +92.7%−60.7% / −63.7%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTApr 16, 2026 +90.5%Not on one close83% 5/6+102.7% / +82.6%−28.6% / −63.7%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINApr 8, 2026 +159.4%Not on one close40% 2/5+236.9% / +198.2%−48.3% / −60.2%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −6.2%Enter above $347.29 (+6.7%)25% 17/67+115.4% / +72.6%−56.9% / −63.7%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyINSep 21, 2026 −4.5%Exit below $411.08 (+26.3%)34% 11/32+132.6% / +85.2%−47.0% / −63.7%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +7.3%Exit below $325.41 (0.0%)32% 19/59+56.7% / +92.7%−61.6% / −63.7%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINMay 14, 2026 +42.3%Not on one close14% 2/14+10.7% / +219.5%−48.3% / −60.2%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −6.2%Not on one close37% 34/93+43.8% / +159.3%−58.4% / −63.7%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyINJul 22, 2026 −1.7%Not on one close55% 6/11+22.0% / +82.7%−46.2% / −63.7%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 +26.6%Not on one close40% 8/20+8.6% / +71.1%−61.5% / −63.7%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTApr 9, 2026 +151.4%Not on one close50% 5/10+4.5% / +91.3%−17.1% / −63.7%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +67.1%Buys Oct 3060% 3/5+12.9% / +89.2%−75.5% / −63.7%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 29, 2026 +65.3%Enter above $420.52 (+29.2%)25% 1/4−6.3% / +101.0%−82.2% / −63.7%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTMay 7, 2026 +66.3%Window opens Oct 1650% 2/4+26.3% / +101.0%−63.7% / −63.7%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +94.7%Buys Dec 2325% 1/4+5.3% / +89.2%−9.2% / −63.7%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −10.2%Buys Oct 2947% 29/62+7.2% / +89.2%−40.3% / −63.7%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −8.6%Sells Jun 300% 0/1+0.6% / +89.2%−16.9% / −63.7%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 +4.8%Buys Nov 2460% 30/50+15.4% / +89.2%−16.2% / −63.7%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 31, 2024 +145.7%Not on one close–+64.8% / +64.8%−63.1% / −63.1%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 +0.4%Sells Oct 1649% 132/267+57.2% / +89.2%−73.0% / −63.7%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +20.9%Buys Oct 2745% 18/40+9.3% / +89.2%−14.0% / −63.7%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −7.1%Sells Oct 1638% 24/63+0.3% / +89.2%−64.1% / −63.7%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINMar 20, 2024Always in–+91.5%−63.7%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureModerate4 of 10 points
  • Market swings2/3
  • Past crashes0/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up2/2
  • It moves about 2.8× its index.
  • It is up 388% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Too young to have lived through a market crash, so there is no crash record to read.

  • Beta2.78Moves about 2.8× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
  • Downside capture−178%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -178% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
  • Two-year change+388%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
  • From 52-week high−33%
  • Debt to equity0.03×
  • Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Semiconductors · Astera Labs, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure in Taiwan and the United States. It offers an intelligent connectivity platform, comprised of semiconductor-based, high-speed, mixed-signal connectivity products that integrate a matrix of microcontrollers and sensors, and COSMOS.

Size and valuation
Market cap$56.5BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$1.2BTotal sales. The market values it at 47.0× sales.
P/E ratio161.1×Buyers pay $161 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E50.9×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book32.7×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin30.7%Keeps 31¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+98.5%The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth+22.4%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity21.4%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow$91.9MCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equity$1.4BWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt$44.4MLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$1.3BCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.03×Comfortable.
Wall Street
Average analyst target$391.7720% above the close, from 22 analysts (range $190.00 to $500.00).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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