Momentum · month-end rule · Semiconductors
12-1 Momentum on Astera Labs
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return 51.7%
ALAB with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2025
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ALAB over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2025 | Hold, since 2025 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +139.1% | +196.0% | +139.1% | +196.0% |
| Total return | +279% | +425% | +279% | +425% |
| Worst drawdown | −60.2% | −60.2% | −60.2% | −60.2% |
| Volatility | 94.2% | 95.4% | 94.2% | 95.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.35 | 1.57 | 1.35 | 1.57 |
| Time invested | 95% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 1 of 2 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +9.5%; out calls saw ALAB move +38.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ALAB moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2025 | IN | $90.72 | now | +258.7% | open |
| Apr 30, 2025 | OUT | $65.31 | May 30, 2025 | +38.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2025 | IN | $59.67 | Apr 30, 2025 | +9.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 3 of 3 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.