Big tech

Apple (AAPL)

$341.27 +0.1% on the day·+38.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy83 / 100

Buy: 83 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 100 and lifts it; Plays in (66%) scores 66 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	AAPL	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	66%	66	40	26.4
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	30	30.0
Trend	+17% vs 200-day	87	30	26.1

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for AAPL

Factor	AAPL	Points	What it is
Plays in	66%	66	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	−3% · 39 analysts	24	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.2 · buy	40	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	39.2×	26	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Forward P/E	35.6×	8	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	2.71	19	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	10.7×	15	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Price to book	46.3×	1	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Dividend yield	0.3%	9	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Earnings growth	+32%	61	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Revenue growth	+14%	53	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Profit margin	28%	79	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Return on equity	120%	99	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Debt to equity	0.78×	38	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-27.
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+17% vs 200-day	87	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+38%	71	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	0/10 · low	100	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on AAPL

66 of the 100 plays hold AAPL right now.
The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in.
It closed 17% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $329.38, 3% below the close (39 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in66 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.17×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+17%). Higher than on 64% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about AAPL now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn AAPL: right 19 of 40 · Out since Sep 7, 2023 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn AAPL: right 34 of 70 · In since Apr 16, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn AAPL: right 8 of 20 · In since Sep 30, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn AAPL: right 89 of 156 · Out since Jul 2, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn AAPL: right 23 of 38 · Out since Feb 18, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn AAPL: right 48 of 104 · Out since Sep 4, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn AAPL: right 19 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

AAPL, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved AAPL lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Sep 10+4.1% against the S&P 5002.0× a normal day

AAPL +3.6%, the S&P 500 −0.6% that session; +6.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Price target cutAnalyst rating · Sep 10, 7:32 am ET
B of A Securities cut its price target to $370 from $380, keeping Buy.
After price target cuts, stocks did worse than their index at the first close after the news 53% of the time (1,291 of 2,458 on 197 stocks; median move −0.1%). This time the stock went the other way. Low predictability
AAPL after price target cuts: behind its index at the first close after the news 16 of 27 times (median −0.1%).

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on AAPL

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following27 of 30 in Breakouts & channels7 of 15 in Momentum13 of 17 in Mean reversion5 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on AAPL went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.3%	Exit below $334.44 (−2.0%)	35% 179/516	+27.4% / +31.1%	−30.5% / −60.9%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Apr 17, 2026 +26.5%	Exit below $315.31 (−7.6%)	31% 27/86	+23.6% / +31.1%	−33.5% / −60.9%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 +7.7%	Exit below $326.96 (−4.2%)	26% 80/310	+24.2% / +31.1%	−29.9% / −60.9%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $324.06 (−5.0%)	18% 49/270	+11.4% / +31.1%	−35.9% / −60.9%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Apr 17, 2026 +26.5%	Exit below $304.21 (−10.9%)	31% 22/70	+21.8% / +31.1%	−46.8% / −60.9%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Apr 17, 2026 +26.5%	Exit below $313.87 (−8.0%)	23% 22/94	+18.3% / +31.1%	−41.4% / −60.9%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +47.6%	Exit below $289.57 (−15.2%)	42% 11/26	+27.1% / +31.1%	−61.4% / −60.9%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +34.7%	Exit below $291.18 (−14.7%)	27% 24/90	+27.5% / +31.1%	−36.2% / −60.9%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2025 +44.7%	Not on one close	50% 10/20	+22.6% / +31.1%	−59.0% / −60.9%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +34.7%	Exit below $291.18 (−14.7%)	31% 23/74	+25.0% / +31.1%	−35.6% / −60.9%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +2.7%	Exit below $314.50 (−7.8%)	37% 48/130	+20.6% / +31.1%	−42.4% / −60.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.3%	Exit below $333.95 (−2.1%)	28% 216/766	+17.7% / +31.1%	−41.6% / −60.9%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below $338.56 (−0.8%)	38% 93/243	+17.4% / +31.1%	−41.1% / −60.9%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 11, 2025 +50.8%	Not on one close	41% 9/22	+24.6% / +29.9%	−50.5% / −60.9%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $295.56 (−13.4%)	34% 45/132	+21.6% / +31.1%	−30.6% / −60.9%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Apr 15, 2026 +28.3%	Exit below $308.89 (−9.5%)	32% 34/106	+22.6% / +31.1%	−35.5% / −60.9%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 +4.0%	Exit below $324.51 (−4.9%)	38% 62/164	+24.8% / +31.1%	−23.1% / −60.9%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	39% 111/284	+21.9% / +31.1%	−31.3% / −60.9%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $330.04 (−3.3%)	38% 180/472	+21.3% / +31.1%	−41.7% / −60.9%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $309.90 (−9.2%)	40% 78/196	+19.4% / +31.1%	−49.1% / −60.9%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $328.35 (−3.8%)	41% 203/498	+15.7% / +31.1%	−52.2% / −60.9%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +10.6%	Not on one close	37% 67/181	+17.5% / +31.1%	−21.7% / −60.9%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $292.84 (−14.2%)	33% 56/172	+23.1% / +31.1%	−28.9% / −60.9%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $327.43 (−4.1%)	36% 76/214	+20.4% / +31.1%	−38.0% / −60.9%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 1, 2026 +5.0%	Exit below $140.68 (−58.8%)	31% 64/206	+19.3% / +31.1%	−37.8% / −60.9%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	40% 96/242	+17.3% / +31.1%	−44.9% / −60.9%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $294.59 (−13.7%)	32% 50/154	+22.9% / +31.1%	−29.8% / −60.9%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Apr 20, 2026 +25.2%	Exit below $201.78 (−40.9%)	38% 37/98	+23.7% / +31.1%	−32.5% / −60.9%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	35% 75/212	+12.0% / +31.1%	−43.2% / −60.9%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 7, 2023 +94.8%	Not on one close	48% 19/40	+4.1% / +31.1%	−9.5% / −60.9%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Jul 9, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below $325.81 (−4.5%)	42% 50/118	+22.5% / +31.1%	−29.8% / −60.9%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +10.6%	Enter above $348.15 (+2.0%)	43% 62/143	+18.7% / +31.1%	−26.8% / −60.9%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +10.6%	Enter above $348.15 (+2.0%)	41% 41/99	+16.2% / +31.1%	−28.9% / −60.9%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below $318.14 (−6.8%)	35% 39/110	+18.2% / +31.1%	−23.5% / −60.9%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Jun 25, 2026 +24.1%	Enter above $344.28 (+0.9%)	41% 46/113	+20.9% / +31.1%	−29.3% / −60.9%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +10.6%	Enter above $349.82 (+2.5%)	36% 68/189	+15.5% / +31.1%	−26.6% / −60.9%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +3.6%	Enter above $344.52 (+1.0%)	39% 82/211	+18.9% / +31.1%	−26.9% / −60.9%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 1, 2026 +5.0%	Exit below $327.32 (−4.1%)	38% 74/196	+20.2% / +31.1%	−33.5% / −60.9%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 1, 2026 +5.0%	Exit below $321.43 (−5.8%)	38% 72/190	+21.2% / +31.1%	−33.9% / −60.9%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Apr 16, 2026 +29.8%	Exit below $293.94 (−13.9%)	49% 34/70	+29.3% / +31.1%	−47.6% / −60.9%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below $328.79 (−3.7%)	26% 98/380	+21.9% / +31.1%	−33.0% / −60.9%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	29% 89/310	+4.8% / +31.1%	−20.8% / −60.9%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +8.2%	Enter above $354.32 (+3.8%)	36% 32/90	+3.9% / +31.1%	−11.7% / −60.9%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.4%	Exit below $330.62 (−3.1%)	37% 244/658	+19.6% / +31.1%	−49.3% / −60.9%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +3.6%	Enter above $344.52 (+1.0%)	38% 20/52	+6.8% / +31.1%	−11.4% / −60.9%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +34.5%	Exit below $279.32 (−18.2%)	42% 10/24	+19.4% / +30.0%	−47.3% / −60.9%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +34.5%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+19.8% / +30.0%	−55.6% / −60.9%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +9.5%	Exit below $310.59 (−9.0%)	30% 9/30	+17.8% / +30.0%	−47.3% / −60.9%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Jun 26, 2026 +20.4%	Exit below $316.63 (−7.2%)	26% 36/140	+19.7% / +31.1%	−31.1% / −60.9%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +34.5%	Exit below $290.08 (−15.0%)	43% 10/23	+20.1% / +31.1%	−34.9% / −60.9%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Aug 21, 2026 +10.3%	Exit below $322.33 (−5.5%)	32% 34/106	+19.8% / +31.1%	−34.0% / −60.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +3.6%	Enter above $340.82 (−0.1%)	40% 162/408	+21.3% / +31.1%	−35.2% / −60.9%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.3%	Exit below $336.59 (−1.4%)	36% 239/666	+20.0% / +31.1%	−34.7% / −60.9%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +2.5%	Enter above $379.53 (+11.2%)	40% 126/312	+17.2% / +31.1%	−40.5% / −60.9%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2023 +110.3%	Not on one close	57% 4/7	+22.2% / +27.5%	−48.4% / −60.9%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below $341.05 (−0.1%)	36% 214/594	+18.3% / +31.1%	−16.3% / −60.9%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +2.5%	Enter above $373.21 (+9.4%)	39% 101/262	+16.2% / +31.1%	−45.5% / −60.9%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +7.7%	Exit below $290.95 (−14.7%)	33% 54/164	+23.9% / +31.1%	−28.9% / −60.9%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +26.0%	Exit below $316.20 (−7.3%)	37% 22/60	+23.1% / +30.0%	−50.8% / −60.9%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +34.5%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+14.0% / +28.3%	−47.3% / −60.9%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +34.5%	Not on one close	38% 9/24	+17.7% / +30.0%	−55.6% / −60.9%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +3.3%	Enter above $342.59 (+0.4%)	32% 104/320	+18.9% / +31.1%	−38.8% / −60.9%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 1, 2026 +11.5%	Not on one close	56% 20/36	+5.9% / +31.1%	−57.3% / −60.9%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +11.6%	Buy $291.18–$327.44 (−4.1%)	59% 232/392	+5.9% / +31.1%	−38.7% / −60.9%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +1.4%	Buy $291.18–$333.63 (−2.2%)	58% 244/424	+5.5% / +31.1%	−63.9% / −60.9%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 2, 2026 +10.7%	Buy below $328.45 (−3.8%)	57% 89/156	+4.9% / +31.1%	−59.0% / −60.9%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	62% 96/156	+8.2% / +31.1%	−62.2% / −60.9%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 +9.6%	Not on one close	61% 160/262	+9.8% / +31.1%	−57.3% / −60.9%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Feb 24, 2025 +39.0%	Not on one close	58% 49/84	+9.4% / +31.1%	−56.6% / −60.9%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +37,096.5%	Sell above $703.79 (+106.2%)	–	+31.1% / +31.1%	−60.9% / −60.9%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jun 16, 2026 +14.1%	Not on one close	55% 22/40	+3.0% / +31.1%	−26.0% / −60.9%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.4%	Exit below $335.64 (−1.7%)	53% 155/295	+10.2% / +31.1%	−45.1% / −60.9%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.5%	Not on one close	57% 244/428	+11.3% / +31.1%	−48.4% / −60.9%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above $341.27 (0.0%)	55% 1022/1843	+12.2% / +31.1%	−25.3% / −60.9%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +8.5%	Not on one close	57% 62/108	+7.6% / +31.1%	−36.7% / −60.9%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.4%	Exit below $332.66 (−2.5%)	41% 414/1010	+20.2% / +31.1%	−33.2% / −60.9%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.5%	Buy below $339.73 (−0.4%)	55% 66/120	+11.2% / +31.1%	−41.6% / −60.9%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	28% 205/740	+20.4% / +31.1%	−42.1% / −60.9%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Jul 9, 2026 +8.0%	Not on one close	38% 73/190	+19.0% / +31.1%	−45.5% / −60.9%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Feb 18, 2025 +40.5%	Not on one close	61% 23/38	+10.4% / +31.1%	−32.3% / −60.9%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Apr 11, 2025 +73.3%	Exit below $315.15 (−7.7%)	39% 16/41	+24.5% / +30.6%	−55.6% / −60.9%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.3%	Exit below $337.52 (−1.1%)	32% 210/664	+23.3% / +31.1%	−30.2% / −60.9%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $320.02 (−6.2%)	36% 113/312	+24.2% / +31.1%	−32.7% / −60.9%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +1.4%	Exit below $341.27 (0.0%)	36% 217/608	+16.6% / +31.1%	−38.5% / −60.9%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 7, 2025 +55.9%	Not on one close	38% 29/76	+24.3% / +30.6%	−48.0% / −60.9%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $344.44 (+0.9%)	38% 345/910	+11.9% / +31.1%	−51.7% / −60.9%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	46% 48/104	+5.9% / +31.1%	−47.7% / −60.9%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $328.35 (−3.8%)	43% 43/100	+15.8% / +31.1%	−31.4% / −60.9%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jan 21, 2025 +54.4%	Not on one close	33% 18/54	+0.4% / +31.1%	−27.3% / −60.9%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +26.0%	Buys Oct 30	44% 19/43	+9.7% / +31.1%	−40.4% / −60.9%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.1%	Window opens Apr 1	43% 19/44	+10.2% / +31.1%	−47.4% / −60.9%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Jun 3, 2026 +10.1%	Window opens Oct 16	51% 22/43	+11.6% / +31.1%	−40.4% / −60.9%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +28.0%	Buys Dec 23	32% 14/44	+1.5% / +31.1%	−20.6% / −60.9%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +2.5%	Buys Oct 29	47% 247/526	+6.1% / +31.1%	−33.1% / −60.9%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.5%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+6.6% / +31.1%	−38.7% / −60.9%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.7%	Buys Nov 24	48% 190/400	+2.6% / +31.1%	−10.9% / −60.9%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +167.3%	Not on one close	45% 9/20	+16.4% / +31.1%	−43.8% / −60.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.1%	Sells Oct 16	48% 1100/2284	+10.6% / +31.1%	−61.9% / −60.9%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.7%	Buys Oct 27	46% 160/348	+5.8% / +31.1%	−11.8% / −60.9%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.3%	Sells Oct 16	50% 270/541	+15.2% / +31.1%	−37.8% / −60.9%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+31.1%	−60.9%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow0 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Jan 2009 · back to its old high Aug 2009

AAPL−53%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jun 2020

AAPL−31%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Jun 2023

AAPL−28%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.04Moves about 1.0× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture35%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 35% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+51%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high0%
Debt to equity1.14×
Net debt / EBITDA0.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover33.8×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Consumer Electronics · Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$5.0T	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$467B	Total sales. The market values it at 10.7× sales.
P/E ratio	39.2×	Buyers pay $39 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	35.6×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	46.3×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	27.6%	Keeps 28¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+14.2%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+32.2%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	119.9%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$108B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$73.7B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$84.3B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$62.4B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	1.14×	Moderate.
Interest cover	33.8×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$329.38	3% below the close, from 39 analysts (range $215.00 to $405.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.31%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-27; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

AAPL: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Big tech: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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