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Software & devices

Cisco (CSCO)

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy72 / 100

Buy: 72 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+17% vs 200-day) scores 86 and lifts it; Off the high (−11% from its 1-year high) scores 64 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightCSCOPointsWeightAdds
Plays in67%674026.8
Off the high−11% from its 1-year high643019.2
Trend+17% vs 200-day863025.8
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for CSCO
FactorCSCOPointsWhat it is
Plays in67%67The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+18% · 25 analysts55How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating1.9 · buy57The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E34.6×34Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Forward P/E20.5×31Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG0.9867P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales7.2×23Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Price to book9.0×20Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Dividend yield1.4%40Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Earnings growth+31%59Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Revenue growth+12%44Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Profit margin21%68Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Return on equity26%81Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Debt to equity0.45×55Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-25.
Off the high−11% from its 1-year high64How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+17% vs 200-day86How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+74%88The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure1/10 · low90The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on CSCO

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in67 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.17×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+17%). Higher than on 87% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about CSCO now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

CSCO, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved CSCO lately

Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Oct 6+4.0% against the S&P 5002.0× a normal day

CSCO +4.5%, the S&P 500 +0.6% that session; +1.8% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Tue Sep 22−4.5% against the S&P 5002.1× a normal day

CSCO −4.5%, the S&P 500 0.0% that session; −3.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

  • Price target cutAnalyst rating · Sep 22, 12:08 pm ET

    Piper Sandler cut its price target to $125 from $132, keeping Neutral.

    After price target cuts, stocks did worse than their index at the first close after the news 53% of the time (1,291 of 2,458 on 197 stocks; median move −0.1%). Low predictability

    CSCO after price target cuts: behind its index at the first close after the news 5 of 6 times (median −0.4%).

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on CSCO

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on CSCO went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $112.27 (−2.4%)27% 161/607+1.0% / +10.8%−60.4% / −60.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINOct 9, 2026 −2.8%Exit below $109.18 (−5.1%)31% 31/99+7.0% / +10.8%−41.1% / −60.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $111.59 (−3.0%)21% 75/353+2.7% / +10.8%−60.3% / −60.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $111.74 (−2.9%)18% 30/169+2.5% / +11.0%−34.1% / −60.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyINMay 2, 2025 +99.9%Exit below $107.62 (−6.5%)27% 19/71+8.4% / +10.8%−27.2% / −60.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyINJan 16, 2026 +55.0%Exit below $107.62 (−6.5%)32% 25/79+6.4% / +10.8%−24.9% / −60.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINJul 31, 2024 +150.0%Exit below $99.11 (−13.9%)39% 12/31+9.6% / +10.8%−32.6% / −60.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINApr 23, 2025 +113.2%Exit below $98.44 (−14.5%)18% 21/119+8.1% / +10.8%−36.2% / −60.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINSep 16, 2024 +137.4%Not on one close44% 12/27+8.4% / +10.8%−38.2% / −60.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyINApr 23, 2025 +113.2%Exit below $98.44 (−14.5%)15% 14/91+7.0% / +10.8%−29.1% / −60.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyINOct 9, 2026 −2.8%Exit below $103.25 (−10.3%)33% 52/156+1.7% / +10.8%−55.0% / −60.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 −0.2%Enter above $115.60 (+0.5%)23% 181/772+0.6% / +10.8%−61.8% / −60.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyINSep 17, 2026 +4.8%Exit below $78.67 (−31.6%)34% 92/270+2.5% / +10.8%−66.0% / −60.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINAug 27, 2024 +138.9%Not on one close23% 8/35+5.9% / +11.2%−54.2% / −60.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyINOct 7, 2026 −2.0%Exit below $102.11 (−11.3%)28% 40/143+2.9% / +10.8%−47.7% / −60.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −2.4%Exit below $112.78 (−2.0%)32% 37/115+6.6% / +10.8%−45.9% / −60.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −2.4%Exit below $109.44 (−4.9%)32% 55/171+2.4% / +10.8%−50.5% / −60.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Not on one close39% 126/324+1.1% / +10.8%−54.8% / −60.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $97.15 (−15.6%)32% 184/580+1.2% / +10.8%−59.8% / −60.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $104.11 (−9.5%)34% 78/232+2.6% / +10.8%−52.1% / −60.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $109.55 (−4.8%)37% 179/486+1.5% / +10.8%−69.4% / −60.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $110.87 (−3.7%)34% 50/149+1.4% / +10.8%−47.7% / −60.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −2.4%Exit below $94.49 (−17.9%)24% 47/198+1.0% / +10.8%−53.8% / −60.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $113.65 (−1.2%)29% 59/205−0.3% / +10.8%−65.6% / −60.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 7, 2026 −2.0%Not on one close28% 66/240+1.3% / +10.8%−46.9% / −60.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Not on one close33% 85/258+0.4% / +10.8%−63.3% / −60.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −2.4%Exit below $96.67 (−16.0%)24% 43/178+0.7% / +10.8%−56.3% / −60.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.2%Exit below $99.10 (−13.9%)33% 33/99+6.4% / +10.8%−46.6% / −60.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −2.8%Exit below $114.69 (−0.3%)33% 74/224−1.1% / +10.8%−73.0% / −60.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTJun 26, 2026 +1.9%Not on one close53% 19/36+2.1% / +10.8%−6.5% / −60.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $104.11 (−9.5%)35% 49/140+3.9% / +10.8%−47.8% / −60.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTAug 13, 2026 +1.8%Enter above $124.23 (+8.0%)32% 50/154+2.0% / +10.8%−43.2% / −60.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTJun 26, 2026 +1.9%Enter above $124.23 (+8.0%)36% 38/106+3.6% / +10.8%−43.2% / −60.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTJun 17, 2026 −1.2%Enter above $123.40 (+7.2%)33% 32/98+2.6% / +10.8%−40.1% / −60.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $104.11 (−9.5%)37% 44/119+2.1% / +10.8%−63.9% / −60.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −2.4%Exit below $112.36 (−2.4%)33% 54/165+1.5% / +10.8%−50.5% / −60.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $110.91 (−3.6%)33% 77/235+0.0% / +10.8%−65.4% / −60.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $109.88 (−4.5%)32% 62/195+1.8% / +10.8%−56.9% / −60.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −2.4%Exit below $109.42 (−4.9%)34% 63/183+4.1% / +10.8%−46.4% / −60.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 +7.5%Enter above $125.44 (+9.0%)39% 20/51+9.3% / +10.8%−38.8% / −60.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $111.48 (−3.1%)29% 90/314+2.6% / +10.8%−50.3% / −60.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 +0.2%Not on one close30% 56/184+2.7% / +10.8%−22.1% / −60.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +2.0%Exit below $73.92 (−35.8%)38% 51/135+0.5% / +10.8%−38.0% / −60.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyINSep 24, 2026 +8.0%Exit below $105.50 (−8.3%)32% 227/715−0.6% / +10.8%−71.9% / −60.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 15, 2025 +78.1%Not on one close25% 9/36+0.9% / +10.8%−17.3% / −60.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINOct 31, 2024 +119.5%Exit below $74.43 (−35.3%)21% 6/29+6.9% / +11.2%−56.7% / −60.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINOct 31, 2024 +119.5%Not on one close61% 19/31+10.2% / +11.2%−38.6% / −60.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endINFeb 28, 2025 +86.3%Exit below $82.76 (−28.1%)28% 8/29+3.9% / +11.2%−52.7% / −60.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 +5.0%Not on one close22% 33/150+4.7% / +10.8%−28.8% / −60.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 +7.3%Enter above $122.56 (+6.5%)35% 7/20+6.7% / +10.8%−32.7% / −60.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyINOct 9, 2026 −2.8%Exit below $115.28 (+0.2%)35% 44/125+6.2% / +10.8%−37.3% / −60.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyINOct 1, 2026 +6.2%Exit below $103.67 (−9.9%)32% 146/451+1.6% / +10.8%−60.0% / −60.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 1, 2026 +6.2%Exit below $113.39 (−1.5%)30% 224/743+0.4% / +10.8%−71.6% / −60.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $59.98 (−47.9%)37% 117/316+1.3% / +10.8%−66.8% / −60.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINSep 30, 2024 +127.6%Not on one close50% 7/14+10.9% / +11.6%−42.0% / −60.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above $117.69 (+2.3%)27% 173/634−1.9% / +10.8%−62.8% / −60.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyINOct 1, 2026 +6.2%Exit below $33.36 (−71.0%)32% 91/280+1.1% / +10.8%−61.0% / −60.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −2.4%Exit below $94.03 (−18.3%)24% 47/196+1.5% / +10.8%−52.5% / −60.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endINMay 30, 2025 +88.2%Exit below $104.11 (−9.5%)34% 30/87+6.6% / +11.2%−45.3% / −60.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINOct 31, 2024 +119.5%Not on one close50% 12/24+8.9% / +10.2%−44.5% / −60.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINOct 31, 2024 +119.5%Not on one close45% 13/29+5.3% / +11.2%−44.1% / −60.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $95.09 (−17.4%)31% 112/360−0.9% / +10.8%−67.1% / −60.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTMay 16, 2025 +86.4%Not on one close54% 21/39+3.9% / +10.8%−50.5% / −60.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 11, 2026 +3.0%Buy $98.44–$111.28 (−3.3%)63% 183/292+4.1% / +10.8%−21.3% / −60.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 +7.3%Buy $98.44–$114.89 (−0.2%)63% 241/380+7.7% / +10.8%−20.6% / −60.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 +6.2%Buy below $100.88 (−12.3%)66% 125/188+5.6% / +10.8%−37.3% / −60.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 +0.2%Not on one close65% 108/166+6.4% / +10.8%−46.1% / −60.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyOUTSep 22, 2026 +8.5%Not on one close67% 188/282+9.9% / +10.8%−47.4% / −60.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 +0.2%Not on one close62% 45/72+7.5% / +10.8%−29.3% / −60.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINNov 22, 2004 +840.8%Sell above $237.93 (+106.8%)–+10.8% / +10.8%−60.0% / −60.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTFeb 20, 2026 +47.2%Buy below $106.17 (−7.7%)57% 8/14+3.0% / +10.8%−3.5% / −60.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINAug 28, 2026 +5.1%Exit below $113.73 (−1.2%)47% 155/327+8.7% / +10.8%−38.0% / −60.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 +5.0%Not on one close61% 273/451+5.8% / +10.8%−53.8% / −60.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −2.8%Buy below $115.07 (0.0%)59% 1076/1816+15.1% / +10.8%−25.7% / −60.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Not on one close66% 62/94+6.1% / +10.8%−24.5% / −60.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above $118.34 (+2.8%)36% 391/1076+0.5% / +10.8%−54.8% / −60.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINJun 30, 2026 −1.3%Sell above $109.38 (−4.9%)68% 93/136+9.6% / +10.8%−35.7% / −60.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +7.3%Exit below $115.07 (0.0%)25% 181/724+1.8% / +10.8%−59.9% / −60.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +2.0%Not on one close37% 72/194+1.2% / +10.8%−71.2% / −60.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTMay 20, 2026 +1.4%Not on one close71% 29/41+13.5% / +10.8%−45.3% / −60.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −2.8%Not on one close33% 48/144+5.4% / +11.0%−56.9% / −60.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Exit below $113.54 (−1.3%)26% 186/715+1.4% / +10.8%−60.5% / −60.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +2.0%Exit below $92.10 (−20.0%)31% 111/356+2.0% / +10.8%−58.2% / −60.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 24, 2026 +8.0%Not on one close33% 190/583−1.5% / +10.8%−75.2% / −60.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINFeb 19, 2026 +48.4%Not on one close27% 32/117+6.0% / +11.0%−60.1% / −60.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +7.3%Sell $109.84–$114.07 (−0.9%)32% 329/1021−0.1% / +10.8%−66.4% / −60.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTSep 18, 2026 +5.5%Not on one close46% 55/119+4.6% / +10.8%−53.5% / −60.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyINApr 29, 2026 +29.4%Exit below $85.13 (−26.0%)22% 19/85+1.2% / +10.8%−50.7% / −60.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTSep 21, 2026 +3.6%Not on one close46% 32/70+1.3% / +10.8%−14.2% / −60.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +26.7%Buys Oct 3049% 21/43+7.7% / +10.8%−43.5% / −60.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 28, 2026 +33.5%Not on one close56% 24/43+7.6% / +10.8%−47.1% / −60.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTJun 5, 2026 −4.7%Window opens Oct 1651% 22/43+8.1% / +10.8%−46.5% / −60.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +54.2%Buys Dec 2341% 18/44+2.2% / +10.8%−8.6% / −60.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 +2.0%Buys Oct 2950% 263/526+4.7% / +10.8%−29.0% / −60.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +7.3%Sells Jun 3055% 6/11+3.5% / +10.8%−42.0% / −60.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 +5.8%Buys Nov 2450% 200/400+2.0% / +10.8%−10.0% / −60.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +168.6%Not on one close45% 9/20+7.5% / +10.8%−57.2% / −60.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.2%Sells Oct 1650% 1139/2284+2.8% / +10.8%−60.8% / −60.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +7.2%Buys Oct 2746% 161/348+1.0% / +10.8%−16.2% / −60.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +2.6%Sells Oct 1650% 273/541+4.7% / +10.8%−48.7% / −60.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 3, 2005Always in–+10.8%−60.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureLow1 of 10 points
  • Market swings0/3
  • Past crashes0/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up1/2
  • It is up 122% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Mar 2015

CSCO−59%
S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high May 2020

CSCO−28%
S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2024

CSCO−36%
S&P 500−25%
  • Beta0.81Moves about 0.8× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
  • Downside capture51%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 51% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
  • Two-year change+122%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
  • From 52-week high−11%
  • Debt to equity0.62×
  • Net debt / EBITDA0.8×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
  • Interest cover11.9×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Communication Equipment · Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies to power, help, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.

Size and valuation
Market cap$454BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$63.3BTotal sales. The market values it at 7.2× sales.
P/E ratio34.6×Buyers pay $35 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E20.5×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book9.0×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin21.0%Keeps 21¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+11.8%The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth+30.6%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity26.4%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow$11.2BCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equity$50.3BWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt$31.2BLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$15.9BCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.62×Moderate.
Interest cover11.9×Interest is easily paid from profit.
Wall Street
Average analyst target$136.1618% above the close, from 25 analysts (range $110.00 to $170.00).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield1.44%Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-07-25; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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