Financials

PayPal (PYPL)

$56.17 +0.2% on the day·−17.5% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold53 / 100

Hold: 53 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+13% vs 200-day) scores 77 and lifts it; Off the high (−22% from its 1-year high) scores 26 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	PYPL	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	56%	56	40	22.4
Off the high	−22% from its 1-year high	26	30	7.8
Trend	+13% vs 200-day	77	30	23.1

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for PYPL

Factor	PYPL	Points	What it is
Plays in	56%	56	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+1% · 32 analysts	30	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.9 · hold	6	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	10.5×	91	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Forward P/E	9.7×	87	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.93	71	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	1.5×	79	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Price to book	2.5×	62	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Dividend yield	0.5%	14	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Earnings growth	+20%	49	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Revenue growth	+6%	27	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Profit margin	15%	59	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Return on equity	25%	79	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Debt to equity	0.54×	49	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Off the high	−22% from its 1-year high	26	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+13% vs 200-day	77	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−18%	18	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	3/10 · moderate	70	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on PYPL

56 of the 100 plays hold PYPL right now.
The volume plays mostly say in.
It closed 13% above its 200-day average and 22% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it moves about 1.1× its index and fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $56.85, 1% above the close (32 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in56 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate3 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.13×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+13%). Higher than on 70% of days since 2016. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about PYPL now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn PYPL: right 6 of 10 · Out since Jun 10, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn PYPL: right 17 of 53 · Out since Sep 10, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn PYPL: right 5 of 12 · Out since Aug 29, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn PYPL: right 72 of 114 · Out since Sep 25, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn PYPL: right 6 of 10 · Out since Feb 26, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn PYPL: right 27 of 55 · In since Apr 2, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn PYPL: right 12 of 22 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

PYPL, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved PYPL lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Sep 25+4.1% against the S&P 5001.2× a normal day

PYPL +4.6%, the S&P 500 +0.5% that session; +1.4% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on PYPL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for PYPL starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +0.5%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Thu Sep 3+2.9% against the S&P 5000.8× a normal day

PYPL +3.9%, the S&P 500 +1.1% that session; −1.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on PYPL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for PYPL starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.1%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 2+3.9% against the S&P 5001.2× a normal day

PYPL +4.3%, the S&P 500 +0.5% that session; −0.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Next earnings report

Tue Oct 27, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 1.31.

Over its last 12 reports, PYPL's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±6.5% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
PYPL after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 15 of 25 times (median +1.7%).
PYPL after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 3 of 5 times (median −12.1%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on PYPL

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following20 of 30 in Breakouts & channels8 of 15 in Momentum10 of 17 in Mean reversion5 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns2 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on PYPL went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2015. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $54.60 (−2.8%)	26% 80/303	+2.2% / +4.4%	−68.1% / −87.3%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jul 17, 2026 −0.4%	Exit below $52.11 (−7.2%)	28% 14/50	+8.6% / +3.7%	−51.5% / −87.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $54.37 (−3.2%)	22% 41/189	+2.7% / +4.5%	−63.8% / −87.3%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Feb 4, 2025 −26.9%	Enter above $194.21 (+245.7%)	18% 11/60	+9.1% / +4.5%	−29.6% / −87.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 14, 2026 −8.7%	Exit below $50.07 (−10.9%)	20% 9/46	+5.7% / +3.1%	−46.5% / −87.3%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $57.38 (+2.2%)	24% 8/34	+11.6% / +4.5%	−39.3% / −87.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −1.6%	Exit below $49.17 (−12.5%)	38% 6/16	+14.8% / +3.7%	−40.1% / −87.3%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Jul 15, 2026 +1.4%	Exit below $49.81 (−11.3%)	15% 12/82	+5.1% / +3.4%	−47.3% / −87.3%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2026 −9.6%	Not on one close	70% 7/10	+14.5% / +3.4%	−37.3% / −87.3%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2025 −20.5%	Enter above $185.63 (+230.5%)	15% 9/59	+7.9% / +3.7%	−43.9% / −87.3%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +2.2%	Enter above $59.38 (+5.7%)	34% 23/67	+5.1% / +4.4%	−63.4% / −87.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $54.72 (−2.6%)	24% 94/390	−4.6% / +4.8%	−82.6% / −87.3%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $51.15 (−8.9%)	32% 46/144	−1.7% / +5.3%	−73.7% / −87.3%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 +4.4%	Enter above $69.70 (+24.1%)	44% 4/9	+15.2% / +3.6%	−42.8% / −87.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $52.14 (−7.2%)	26% 17/66	+4.8% / +4.0%	−56.1% / −87.3%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 +18.2%	Exit below $52.34 (−6.8%)	30% 17/57	+6.7% / +4.5%	−50.3% / −87.3%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $56.79 (+1.1%)	32% 26/81	+3.9% / +3.4%	−53.1% / −87.3%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 +3.0%	Not on one close	38% 54/143	+4.2% / +3.4%	−41.5% / −87.3%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below $48.34 (−13.9%)	37% 106/287	+2.1% / +4.1%	−61.3% / −87.3%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $50.80 (−9.6%)	31% 37/118	−2.5% / +3.5%	−73.0% / −87.3%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $52.44 (−6.6%)	38% 96/252	−2.0% / +3.3%	−75.3% / −87.3%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $68.75 (+22.4%)	26% 19/74	+1.5% / +3.8%	−46.3% / −87.3%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $52.63 (−6.3%)	26% 24/93	+6.8% / +5.6%	−46.7% / −87.3%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $53.31 (−5.1%)	30% 37/124	−1.4% / +3.4%	−72.9% / −87.3%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $16.47 (−70.7%)	32% 36/111	+7.0% / +5.6%	−60.9% / −87.3%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.9%	Not on one close	35% 42/121	−5.8% / +5.3%	−83.7% / −87.3%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $52.31 (−6.9%)	28% 22/79	+7.4% / +4.5%	−50.4% / −87.3%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $50.71 (−9.7%)	26% 15/58	+3.8% / +4.5%	−64.7% / −87.3%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −8.5%	Not on one close	43% 44/102	+10.7% / +3.6%	−37.6% / −87.3%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 10, 2025 −24.0%	Not on one close	60% 6/10	+3.5% / +5.6%	−4.2% / −87.3%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $51.81 (−7.8%)	27% 20/73	+3.2% / +3.4%	−60.9% / −87.3%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $62.58 (+11.4%)	26% 18/68	+2.6% / +4.7%	−44.7% / −87.3%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $62.58 (+11.4%)	28% 13/46	+4.8% / +4.7%	−36.2% / −87.3%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $62.15 (+10.6%)	30% 12/40	+9.5% / +4.5%	−30.1% / −87.3%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Jul 15, 2026 +1.4%	Exit below $51.79 (−7.8%)	44% 24/55	+9.6% / +3.4%	−47.6% / −87.3%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $57.35 (+2.1%)	27% 21/78	+1.7% / +4.8%	−38.0% / −87.3%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $53.91 (−4.0%)	34% 35/103	+1.0% / +3.3%	−49.2% / −87.3%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $52.02 (−7.4%)	33% 33/101	+3.5% / +3.5%	−61.2% / −87.3%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $52.74 (−6.1%)	40% 37/92	+6.1% / +3.4%	−59.7% / −87.3%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 +5.4%	Enter above $57.95 (+3.2%)	32% 17/53	+5.7% / +3.3%	−60.3% / −87.3%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +2.2%	Exit below $53.06 (−5.5%)	29% 45/153	+5.8% / +3.6%	−57.6% / −87.3%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 5, 2026 −2.8%	Not on one close	28% 30/106	+0.5% / +3.4%	−19.9% / −87.3%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $36.56 (−34.9%)	37% 27/73	+5.4% / +4.8%	−22.8% / −87.3%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below $55.83 (−0.6%)	32% 126/389	−5.0% / +3.5%	−79.2% / −87.3%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	May 5, 2026 +21.5%	Not on one close	33% 8/24	+1.4% / +4.3%	−24.8% / −87.3%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 −19.1%	Enter above $71.04 (+26.5%)	50% 4/8	+14.7% / +4.3%	−42.5% / −87.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 −19.1%	Not on one close	42% 5/12	+13.1% / +4.3%	−50.7% / −87.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2025 −17.4%	Enter above $78.99 (+40.6%)	25% 3/12	+12.8% / +4.3%	−33.2% / −87.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2025 −18.5%	Not on one close	14% 13/90	+3.1% / +4.5%	−42.9% / −87.3%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Feb 28, 2025 −20.1%	Enter above $64.21 (+14.3%)	38% 3/8	+16.4% / +4.4%	−31.2% / −87.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Jul 17, 2026 −0.4%	Exit below $52.75 (−6.1%)	21% 12/57	+5.2% / +5.2%	−57.5% / −87.3%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $49.49 (−11.9%)	34% 76/225	−0.4% / +5.6%	−73.5% / −87.3%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $54.75 (−2.5%)	28% 104/371	−3.6% / +5.6%	−78.9% / −87.3%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $37.45 (−33.3%)	38% 63/164	+3.5% / +5.1%	−48.2% / −87.3%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −1.6%	Exit below $45.62 (−18.8%)	29% 2/7	−3.0% / −0.5%	−47.3% / −87.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below $54.99 (−2.1%)	30% 99/327	+1.7% / +3.4%	−32.9% / −87.3%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $25.87 (−53.9%)	38% 52/137	−1.3% / +4.5%	−58.2% / −87.3%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below $52.83 (−6.0%)	28% 25/90	+7.3% / +4.5%	−42.7% / −87.3%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +6.9%	Exit below $53.79 (−4.2%)	37% 14/38	+12.6% / +4.3%	−44.3% / −87.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 −19.1%	Not on one close	36% 4/11	+5.6% / −4.6%	−50.7% / −87.3%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 −19.1%	Not on one close	33% 4/12	+9.5% / +4.3%	−50.7% / −87.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +2.2%	Exit below $50.00 (−11.0%)	32% 56/176	−0.2% / +5.3%	−69.9% / −87.3%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −6.9%	Not on one close	77% 17/22	+8.6% / +3.8%	−69.9% / −87.3%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 −0.9%	Buy $49.81–$53.60 (−4.6%)	52% 56/108	+4.2% / +3.4%	−17.3% / −87.3%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +2.1%	Buy $49.81–$54.61 (−2.8%)	61% 93/152	+8.9% / +3.4%	−21.7% / −87.3%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +2.1%	Buy below $51.00 (−9.2%)	63% 72/114	+5.7% / +3.3%	−54.9% / −87.3%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −0.9%	Exit below $56.06 (−0.2%)	65% 53/81	−1.4% / +3.5%	−72.8% / −87.3%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +5.9%	Exit below $55.58 (−1.1%)	64% 87/135	−0.2% / +4.1%	−67.8% / −87.3%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 −9.6%	Not on one close	70% 21/30	+3.2% / +3.9%	−71.6% / −87.3%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Apr 19, 2016 +44.7%	Sell above $120.40 (+114.4%)	–	+3.4% / +3.4%	−87.3% / −87.3%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Feb 17, 2026 +38.9%	Buy below $47.01 (−16.3%)	62% 10/16	+4.3% / +5.3%	−7.3% / −87.3%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $54.44 (−3.1%)	48% 79/163	−5.0% / +4.8%	−81.2% / −87.3%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +3.5%	Not on one close	53% 116/220	−2.6% / +4.8%	−65.6% / −87.3%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +5.9%	Buy below $56.17 (0.0%)	57% 525/927	+3.4% / +4.0%	−45.6% / −87.3%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	70% 28/40	+6.6% / +3.4%	−35.8% / −87.3%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $55.33 (−1.5%)	35% 195/563	−2.9% / +5.6%	−83.4% / −87.3%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +6.9%	Buy below $53.59 (−4.6%)	64% 38/59	−1.6% / +4.8%	−80.6% / −87.3%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +5.9%	Not on one close	28% 105/380	+7.0% / +3.3%	−54.5% / −87.3%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	37% 34/91	+4.4% / +3.4%	−64.7% / −87.3%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Feb 26, 2026 +24.5%	Not on one close	60% 6/10	−8.7% / +3.8%	−82.9% / −87.3%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Aug 7, 2026 −4.7%	Not on one close	44% 19/43	+12.7% / +4.0%	−68.0% / −87.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +5.9%	Exit below $54.83 (−2.4%)	28% 93/338	−3.9% / +3.6%	−78.9% / −87.3%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below $45.25 (−19.4%)	38% 65/173	+2.3% / +3.3%	−69.6% / −87.3%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	36% 102/287	+1.5% / +3.4%	−59.4% / −87.3%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Jul 16, 2026 −0.7%	Not on one close	47% 15/32	+13.6% / +3.7%	−49.3% / −87.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +5.9%	Not on one close	29% 156/531	−12.4% / +4.4%	−86.3% / −87.3%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Apr 2, 2026 +24.6%	Not on one close	49% 27/55	−3.1% / +3.8%	−78.1% / −87.3%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below $52.43 (−6.7%)	34% 18/53	+6.0% / +4.5%	−29.4% / −87.3%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 27, 2025 −19.2%	Not on one close	55% 22/40	+3.1% / +3.4%	−31.7% / −87.3%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +12.7%	Buys Oct 30	55% 12/22	−1.2% / +4.0%	−80.3% / −87.3%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 27, 2026 +13.5%	Not on one close	55% 12/22	+1.0% / +5.6%	−82.3% / −87.3%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 4, 2026 +12.1%	Window opens Oct 16	45% 10/22	−3.9% / +5.6%	−87.1% / −87.3%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −4.4%	Buys Dec 23	45% 10/22	+2.9% / +4.0%	−7.9% / −87.3%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +3.2%	Buys Oct 29	47% 128/270	−3.7% / +4.0%	−61.0% / −87.3%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +6.9%	Sells Jun 30	60% 3/5	+2.4% / +4.0%	−37.1% / −87.3%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +2.2%	Buys Nov 24	51% 107/208	+3.1% / +4.0%	−11.5% / −87.3%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 −20.3%	Not on one close	50% 4/8	+7.7% / +4.7%	−57.3% / −87.3%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.2%	Sells Oct 16	49% 578/1175	−5.2% / +4.0%	−93.6% / −87.3%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +6.6%	Buys Oct 27	50% 89/178	+3.2% / +4.0%	−13.0% / −87.3%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.4%	Sells Oct 16	52% 145/279	+3.5% / +4.0%	−65.8% / −87.3%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jul 6, 2015	Always in	–	+4.0%	−87.3%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate3 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.1× its index.
It fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high May 2020

PYPL−31%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · never got back

PYPL−64%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.13Moves about 1.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture75%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 75% as much on average.
Two-year change−29%
From 52-week high−22%
Debt to equity0.70×
Net debt / EBITDA0.5×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover15.3×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Credit Services · PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$48.1B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$34.1B	Total sales. The market values it at 1.4× sales.
P/E ratio	10.5×	Buyers pay $11 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	9.7×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	2.5×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	15.0%	Keeps 15¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+5.8%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+19.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	25.3%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$4.4B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$20.3B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$14.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$11.3B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.70×	Moderate.
Interest cover	15.3×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$56.85	1% above the close, from 32 analysts (range $36.00 to $80.00).
Consensus rating	Hold	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.50%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-03-31; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

PYPL: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Financials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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