Software & devices

Nebius Group (NBIS)

$206.86 −1.5% on the day·+52.7% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold41 / 100

Hold: 41 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+20% vs 200-day) scores 89 and lifts it; Off the high (−28% from its 1-year high) scores 7 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	NBIS	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	31%	31	40	12.4
Off the high	−28% from its 1-year high	7	30	2.1
Trend	+20% vs 200-day	89	30	26.7

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for NBIS

Factor	NBIS	Points	What it is
Plays in	31%	31	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+37% · 20 analysts	82	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.9 · buy	57	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	161.6×	5	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	loss expected	0	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.51	87	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	41.5×	3	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	5.5×	30	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	–	–	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth	+454%	100	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	3%	28	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	1%	18	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.99×	29	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−28% from its 1-year high	7	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+20% vs 200-day	89	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+53%	78	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	5/10 · high	50	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on NBIS

30 of the 98 plays hold NBIS right now.
The breakout, volume and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 20% above its 200-day average and 28% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 2.7× its index and carries 2.2× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $283.60, 37% above the close (20 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in30 / 98Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.20×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+20%). Higher than on 8% of days since 2025. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about NBIS now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn NBIS: right 3 of 8 · Out since Nov 6, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn NBIS: right 17 of 51 · Out since Oct 8, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightNo finished calls on NBIS yet · In since Oct 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn NBIS: right 7 of 10 · Out since Aug 3, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn NBIS: right 4 of 4 · Out since May 29, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn NBIS: right 7 of 12 · Out since Oct 5, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn NBIS: right 2 of 4 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

NBIS, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved NBIS lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Sep 24+7.5% against the S&P 5000.8× a normal day

NBIS +7.4%, the S&P 500 0.0% that session; +4.8% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

UpgradeAnalyst rating · Sep 24, 10:32 am ET
BNP Paribas upgraded it to Outperform from Neutral. Target $399, from $260.
After upgrades, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 77% of the time (549 of 714 on 163 stocks; median move +1.4%). High predictability

Tue Sep 8+8.3% against the S&P 5000.9× a normal day

NBIS +7.7%, the S&P 500 −0.6% that session; −5.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NBIS was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NBIS starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.6%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved −2.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Fri Sep 4+7.9% against the S&P 5000.9× a normal day

NBIS +7.5%, the S&P 500 −0.4% that session; +7.8% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NBIS was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NBIS starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.4%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.7% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on NBIS

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following12 of 30 in Breakouts & channels3 of 15 in Momentum5 of 15 in Mean reversion5 of 15 in Volume & money flow1 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on NBIS went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2024. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $226.30 (+9.4%)	28% 14/50	+48.7% / +213.1%	−56.1% / −58.3%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jul 24, 2026 +10.2%	Exit below $211.32 (+2.2%)	25% 2/8	+38.4% / +148.6%	−63.3% / −48.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $225.36 (+8.9%)	12% 4/32	+102.9% / +262.8%	−59.2% / −48.3%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $224.68 (+8.6%)	12% 2/17	−11.0% / +80.6%	−49.7% / −48.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Mar 13, 2026 +83.1%	Exit below $203.59 (−1.6%)	25% 1/4	+135.5% / +208.7%	−52.2% / −48.3%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Mar 13, 2026 +83.1%	Exit below $203.59 (−1.6%)	0% 0/4	+34.2% / +92.8%	−50.5% / −48.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +280.0%	Exit below $173.14 (−16.3%)	–	+217.7% / +217.7%	−48.3% / −48.3%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Feb 6, 2026 +140.3%	Exit below $173.06 (−16.3%)	50% 1/2	+120.6% / +151.6%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Aug 8, 2025 +200.8%	Not on one close	–	+151.6% / +151.6%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Feb 6, 2026 +140.3%	Exit below $173.06 (−16.3%)	50% 1/2	+75.9% / +102.6%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Aug 14, 2026 −25.5%	Exit below $226.69 (+9.6%)	33% 3/9	+133.9% / +266.3%	−59.5% / −48.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $223.25 (+7.9%)	32% 18/56	+64.4% / +209.1%	−54.0% / −58.3%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above $255.21 (+23.4%)	26% 5/19	+19.9% / +254.6%	−47.3% / −48.3%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jan 2, 2026 +130.0%	Not on one close	–	+183.2% / +183.2%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $246.64 (+19.2%)	14% 2/14	+53.2% / +365.9%	−62.4% / −48.3%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.5%	Not on one close	15% 2/13	+36.3% / +163.2%	−57.8% / −58.3%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Aug 12, 2026 −20.2%	Exit below $198.04 (−4.3%)	29% 4/14	+73.0% / +240.4%	−62.2% / −58.3%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −10.8%	Flips at next check	41% 12/29	+82.9% / +240.4%	−53.5% / −58.3%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −6.4%	Enter above $269.22 (+30.1%)	28% 16/57	+1.6% / +232.8%	−73.3% / −58.3%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $255.10 (+23.3%)	35% 6/17	+118.1% / +232.4%	−60.4% / −58.3%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $248.50 (+20.1%)	40% 18/45	+16.7% / +246.6%	−53.7% / −58.3%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 26, 2026 −13.9%	Not on one close	36% 8/22	+6.0% / +235.2%	−49.8% / −58.3%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $238.75 (+15.4%)	27% 4/15	+74.3% / +169.1%	−53.0% / −58.3%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −6.4%	Enter above $229.91 (+11.1%)	33% 11/33	+90.7% / +221.0%	−47.0% / −58.3%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above $563.34 (+172.3%)	19% 4/21	+50.9% / +169.1%	−59.1% / −58.3%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Not on one close	26% 5/19	+38.6% / +254.6%	−60.0% / −48.3%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $239.56 (+15.8%)	14% 2/14	+113.2% / +262.8%	−55.7% / −48.3%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Aug 13, 2026 −18.9%	Exit below $173.91 (−15.9%)	29% 2/7	+108.6% / +262.8%	−53.5% / −48.3%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Not on one close	30% 3/10	+27.7% / +201.3%	−24.7% / −48.3%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Nov 6, 2025 +89.0%	Not on one close	38% 3/8	+49.6% / +169.1%	−16.4% / −58.3%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Aug 12, 2026 −20.2%	Exit below $197.60 (−4.5%)	36% 4/11	+67.8% / +240.4%	−54.6% / −58.3%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +0.3%	Enter above $255.10 (+23.3%)	22% 4/18	+1.9% / +174.1%	−52.6% / −58.3%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 +6.0%	Enter above $280.83 (+35.8%)	25% 3/12	+6.9% / +174.1%	−52.6% / −58.3%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 +6.0%	Enter above $277.68 (+34.2%)	38% 3/8	+85.1% / +262.8%	−31.9% / −48.3%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 +6.0%	Enter above $254.74 (+23.1%)	38% 3/8	+56.5% / +240.4%	−47.1% / −58.3%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −6.0%	Enter above $270.07 (+30.6%)	28% 5/18	−7.4% / +209.1%	−49.0% / −58.3%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $255.74 (+23.6%)	29% 7/24	−11.5% / +259.8%	−59.4% / −58.3%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −17.2%	Exit below $205.08 (−0.9%)	26% 6/23	+25.6% / +230.8%	−52.1% / −58.3%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −17.2%	Exit below $206.06 (−0.4%)	29% 6/21	+27.3% / +240.4%	−56.3% / −58.3%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $255.89 (+23.7%)	33% 17/51	+31.8% / +205.8%	−49.9% / −58.3%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above $241.95 (+17.0%)	26% 9/34	+104.1% / +208.6%	−58.9% / −58.3%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jun 3, 2026 −17.8%	Not on one close	25% 4/16	+27.1% / +240.4%	−17.7% / −58.3%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2025 +75.8%	Not on one close	67% 4/6	+47.7% / +209.1%	−16.5% / −58.3%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $225.30 (+8.9%)	29% 19/66	+17.2% / +232.8%	−63.9% / −58.3%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 17, 2025 +82.4%	Not on one close	50% 1/2	+16.9% / +230.5%	−16.3% / −48.3%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +58.1%	Exit below $135.65 (−34.4%)	–	+78.1% / +78.1%	−48.3% / −48.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +58.1%	Not on one close	–	+78.1% / +78.1%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +58.1%	Exit below $150.83 (−27.1%)	–	+78.1% / +78.1%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Mar 17, 2025 +631.2%	Not on one close	–	+3.9% / +278.6%	0.0% / −48.3%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +8.6%	Enter above $272.36 (+31.7%)	0% 0/3	−30.1% / +76.1%	−54.3% / −48.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Apr 2, 2026 +90.1%	Exit below $221.98 (+7.3%)	11% 1/9	+152.6% / +337.5%	−48.3% / −48.3%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $269.24 (+30.2%)	26% 10/39	−18.6% / +169.1%	−62.5% / −58.3%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $225.29 (+8.9%)	36% 20/56	+30.4% / +169.1%	−57.5% / −58.3%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $325.55 (+57.4%)	26% 9/34	−21.9% / +192.2%	−56.8% / −58.3%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	–	– –	Not enough history	–	– / –	– / –
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $265.57 (+28.4%)	24% 17/70	−6.3% / +240.4%	−42.2% / −58.3%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above $337.83 (+63.3%)	29% 7/24	+58.1% / +262.8%	−46.4% / −48.3%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $237.45 (+14.8%)	21% 3/14	+121.0% / +262.8%	−53.0% / −48.3%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +58.1%	Exit below $202.14 (−2.3%)	–	+78.1% / +78.1%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	–	– –	Not enough history	–	– / –	– / –
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −12.3%	Not on one close	100% 1/1	+105.1% / +78.1%	−48.3% / −48.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $280.89 (+35.8%)	28% 8/29	+3.8% / +254.6%	−48.6% / −48.3%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Nov 11, 2024 +887.9%	Not on one close	–	+4.0% / +245.5%	0.0% / −58.3%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above $214.42 (+3.7%)	73% 24/33	+130.1% / +151.6%	−23.7% / −48.3%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Sell above $249.87 (+20.8%)	80% 28/35	+300.3% / +151.6%	−37.8% / −48.3%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 3, 2026 −2.7%	Buy below $204.82 (−1.0%)	70% 7/10	+58.0% / +259.8%	−18.0% / −58.3%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −1.8%	Not on one close	47% 8/17	+28.2% / +268.6%	−36.9% / −58.3%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −13.9%	Enter above $209.10 (+1.1%)	56% 18/32	+95.6% / +232.8%	−33.6% / −58.3%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 −1.1%	Not on one close	78% 7/9	+118.0% / +205.8%	−33.5% / −58.3%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Oct 17, 2025 +82.4%	Sell above $418.29 (+102.2%)	75% 3/4	+143.9% / +151.6%	−48.3% / −48.3%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	May 29, 2025 +443.8%	Not on one close	–	+3.9% / +254.6%	0.0% / −48.3%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −2.5%	Enter above $229.25 (+10.8%)	43% 13/30	+69.5% / +209.1%	−48.7% / −58.3%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −8.7%	Enter above $214.02 (+3.5%)	62% 25/40	+132.7% / +209.1%	−38.4% / −58.3%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −6.4%	Buy below $206.86 (0.0%)	60% 110/184	+120.6% / +240.5%	−35.2% / −58.3%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 4, 2026 −8.4%	Buy $173.06–$216.16 (+4.5%)	62% 5/8	+73.0% / +151.6%	−42.3% / −48.3%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above $231.22 (+11.8%)	35% 29/83	+41.8% / +169.1%	−41.3% / −58.3%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +0.3%	Buy below $240.64 (+16.3%)	56% 5/9	+23.8% / +208.6%	−27.8% / −58.3%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Not on one close	28% 14/50	+23.5% / +259.8%	−58.9% / −58.3%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −0.2%	Not on one close	47% 8/17	+138.1% / +240.4%	−44.4% / −58.3%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	May 29, 2025 +443.8%	Not on one close	100% 4/4	+55.8% / +245.5%	−34.7% / −58.3%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −8.7%	Enter above $222.73 (+7.7%)	13% 2/15	−2.2% / +69.9%	−53.5% / −48.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above $224.04 (+8.3%)	37% 21/57	+101.4% / +239.0%	−52.5% / −58.3%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above $309.97 (+49.8%)	26% 9/34	+14.7% / +259.8%	−56.9% / −58.3%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −7.9%	Not on one close	32% 18/56	+40.0% / +240.4%	−58.3% / −58.3%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	May 13, 2026 −0.2%	Not on one close	25% 1/4	−20.4% / +95.8%	−48.3% / −48.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −12.8%	Not on one close	30% 24/80	+42.3% / +306.1%	−47.4% / −48.3%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −11.1%	Not on one close	58% 7/12	+110.4% / +217.7%	−48.3% / −58.3%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 +6.0%	Enter above $225.30 (+8.9%)	17% 1/6	+30.0% / +235.4%	−58.3% / −58.3%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jul 16, 2026 +20.4%	Not on one close	25% 2/8	−15.8% / +241.9%	−30.3% / −58.3%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +49.6%	Buys Oct 30	50% 2/4	+8.1% / +240.5%	−72.8% / −58.3%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 +31.7%	Enter above $260.62 (+26.0%)	25% 1/4	−18.5% / +169.1%	−74.3% / −58.3%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 27, 2026 +42.7%	Window opens Oct 16	33% 1/3	+23.4% / +169.1%	−58.3% / −58.3%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +122.8%	Buys Dec 23	50% 2/4	+10.1% / +240.5%	−8.1% / −58.3%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −11.1%	Buys Oct 29	48% 23/48	+61.5% / +240.5%	−28.1% / −58.3%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −12.3%	Sells Jun 30	0% 0/1	−2.8% / +240.5%	−17.2% / −58.3%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −8.6%	Buys Nov 24	48% 19/40	+17.7% / +240.5%	−6.2% / −58.3%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2024 +646.8%	Not on one close	–	+195.6% / +195.6%	−58.3% / −58.3%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −1.5%	Sells Oct 16	49% 100/205	+73.7% / +240.5%	−53.3% / −58.3%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −1.2%	Buys Oct 27	50% 16/32	+15.5% / +240.5%	−12.7% / −58.3%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −14.8%	Sells Oct 16	43% 21/49	+53.1% / +240.5%	−64.1% / −58.3%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Oct 21, 2024	Always in	–	+228.5%	−58.3%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh5 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 2.7× its index.
It carries 2.2× as much debt as equity.
It operating profit covers interest only 1.2×.

Past crashes, peak to low

Too young to have lived through a market crash, so there is no crash record to read.

Beta2.73Moves about 2.7× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture−55%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -55% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
From 52-week high−28%
Debt to equity2.22×
Net debt / EBITDA8.3×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover1.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Internet Content & Information · Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$56.2B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$1.4B	Total sales. The market values it at 41.5× sales.
P/E ratio	161.6×	Buyers pay $162 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Price to book	5.5×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	3.1%	Keeps 3¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+454.0%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Return on equity	0.6%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	−$9.6B	Burning cash: needs savings or new money to keep going.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$4.6B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$10.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$8.0B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	2.22×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	1.2×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$283.60	37% above the close, from 20 analysts (range $84.00 to $410.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

NBIS: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Software & devices: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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