Software & devices

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

$397.03 −1.7% on the day·+86.2% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Buy81 / 100

Buy: 81 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+54% vs 200-day) scores 99 and lifts it; Plays in (66%) scores 66 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	PANW	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	66%	66	40	26.4
Off the high	−5% from its 1-year high	82	30	24.6
Trend	+54% vs 200-day	99	30	29.7

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for PANW

Factor	PANW	Points	What it is
Plays in	66%	66	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+0% · 50 analysts	29	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.7 · buy	65	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	992.6×	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Forward P/E	81.4×	2	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	2.01	31	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	28.3×	3	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Price to book	11.8×	14	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	−75%	7	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Revenue growth	+24%	69	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Profit margin	3%	26	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Return on equity	1%	18	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Debt to equity	0.07×	85	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Off the high	−5% from its 1-year high	82	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+54% vs 200-day	99	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+86%	91	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	2/10 · low	80	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on PANW

66 of the 100 plays hold PANW right now.
The trend-following and momentum plays mostly say in.
It closed 54% above its 200-day average and 5% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.3× its index and is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $397.92, 0% above the close (50 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in66 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.54×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+54%). Higher than on 98% of days since 2013. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about PANW now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn PANW: right 16 of 36 · Out since Aug 10, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn PANW: right 30 of 84 · In since Sep 23, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn PANW: right 10 of 27 · In since Jun 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn PANW: right 69 of 112 · Out since Sep 14, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn PANW: right 24 of 32 · Out since Mar 18, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn PANW: right 51 of 92 · Out since Sep 11, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn PANW: right 13 of 28 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

PANW, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved PANW lately

Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 14+13.6% against the S&P 5003.9× a normal day

PANW +13.1%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; +10.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on PANW was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for PANW starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved +2.0% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 2−9.7% against the S&P 5003.0× a normal day

PANW −9.3%, the S&P 500 +0.5% that session; −7.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Small beatEarnings report · Sep 1, 4:00 pm ET
PANW reported earnings per share of 1.02 against 0.98 expected: a 4.3% beat.
After small beats, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 51% of the time (1,404 of 2,760 on 305 stocks; median move +0.1%). This time the stock went the other way. Low predictability
PANW after small beats: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 5 of 16 times (median −5.3%).
Price target raisedAnalyst rating · Sep 2, 5:51 am ET
11 firms raised their price targets: Citigroup, Roth Capital, Oppenheimer, Piper Sandler and 7 more.
Came within two sessions of an earnings report, so the report likely drove the move. Kinds of news are scored without these.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on PANW

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following27 of 30 in Breakouts & channels10 of 15 in Momentum14 of 17 in Mean reversion5 of 15 in Volume & money flow5 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on PANW went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2012. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below $391.65 (−1.4%)	28% 106/372	+11.0% / +29.3%	−44.9% / −48.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Apr 24, 2026 +122.4%	Exit below $333.11 (−16.1%)	23% 17/73	+9.8% / +33.4%	−57.0% / −48.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below $370.82 (−6.6%)	28% 62/223	+16.3% / +32.4%	−48.8% / −48.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below $373.43 (−5.9%)	16% 18/115	+7.4% / +35.2%	−58.6% / −48.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	May 22, 2026 +52.4%	Exit below $293.80 (−26.0%)	20% 9/45	+11.4% / +31.9%	−60.5% / −48.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	May 15, 2026 +63.5%	Exit below $293.80 (−26.0%)	27% 18/67	+12.1% / +34.6%	−53.7% / −48.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +40.9%	Exit below $266.61 (−32.8%)	19% 5/27	+14.8% / +33.0%	−56.5% / −48.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	May 7, 2026 +102.0%	Exit below $258.40 (−34.9%)	15% 13/85	+22.5% / +33.5%	−48.3% / −48.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	May 28, 2026 +54.0%	Not on one close	21% 4/19	+13.2% / +33.5%	−75.1% / −48.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	May 18, 2026 +60.4%	Exit below $258.40 (−34.9%)	15% 10/67	+15.5% / +34.4%	−51.4% / −48.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $317.07 (−20.1%)	32% 28/87	+13.8% / +31.9%	−45.7% / −48.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below $391.34 (−1.4%)	27% 125/468	+14.0% / +28.7%	−52.4% / −48.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $356.42 (−10.2%)	38% 63/168	+16.9% / +30.9%	−34.2% / −48.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	May 12, 2026 +84.2%	Not on one close	20% 5/25	+14.6% / +35.4%	−72.5% / −48.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $282.38 (−28.9%)	31% 27/87	+13.3% / +31.8%	−53.8% / −48.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Apr 20, 2026 +134.2%	Exit below $342.08 (−13.8%)	28% 20/71	+13.9% / +31.7%	−56.1% / −48.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +3.7%	Exit below $371.02 (−6.6%)	35% 36/104	+11.8% / +29.0%	−47.0% / −48.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.0%	Not on one close	46% 99/216	+14.8% / +29.0%	−48.9% / −48.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.0%	Exit below $397.96 (+0.2%)	35% 130/370	+6.7% / +29.6%	−55.2% / −48.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $327.05 (−17.6%)	39% 53/136	+16.2% / +29.3%	−40.3% / −48.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.4%	Enter above $429.49 (+8.2%)	37% 117/315	+9.0% / +30.6%	−54.0% / −48.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 +10.9%	Not on one close	36% 44/121	+6.7% / +29.2%	−41.6% / −48.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $260.13 (−34.5%)	33% 39/119	+16.6% / +29.4%	−46.6% / −48.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +9.2%	Exit below $402.03 (+1.3%)	33% 56/172	+10.6% / +29.0%	−43.7% / −48.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +5.9%	Not on one close	34% 50/145	+10.7% / +29.4%	−49.6% / −48.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $395.80 (−0.3%)	39% 54/137	+17.2% / +30.9%	−35.7% / −48.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $270.58 (−31.8%)	33% 37/111	+17.0% / +32.4%	−46.6% / −48.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Apr 22, 2026 +119.1%	Not on one close	29% 18/63	+12.8% / +32.4%	−59.8% / −48.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below $367.27 (−7.5%)	38% 40/105	+13.5% / +32.3%	−27.5% / −48.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	44% 16/36	+1.6% / +29.4%	−23.1% / −48.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Apr 8, 2026 +128.5%	Exit below $356.00 (−10.3%)	39% 33/84	+12.0% / +29.0%	−42.8% / −48.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −5.4%	Exit below $387.02 (−2.5%)	23% 24/105	+0.7% / +29.8%	−57.0% / −48.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Apr 22, 2026 +119.1%	Exit below $356.00 (−10.3%)	22% 16/73	+4.6% / +29.8%	−56.3% / −48.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.1%	Exit below $365.71 (−7.9%)	21% 15/73	+3.0% / +32.4%	−57.2% / −48.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $328.00 (−17.4%)	35% 27/77	+9.7% / +29.0%	−49.0% / −48.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −5.4%	Exit below $392.49 (−1.1%)	29% 32/111	+2.8% / +28.7%	−44.5% / −48.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 +13.6%	Enter above $428.24 (+7.9%)	30% 41/137	+5.7% / +28.7%	−46.1% / −48.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $380.35 (−4.2%)	36% 48/133	+7.6% / +29.3%	−42.7% / −48.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $368.43 (−7.2%)	37% 43/116	+11.5% / +29.0%	−47.5% / −48.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below $365.47 (−7.9%)	36% 30/84	+13.3% / +29.5%	−47.3% / −48.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below $385.27 (−3.0%)	30% 65/220	+12.0% / +29.4%	−39.4% / −48.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +3.3%	Not on one close	34% 47/138	+6.9% / +29.0%	−14.8% / −48.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Jan 20, 2026 +115.7%	Not on one close	38% 26/68	+2.7% / +28.7%	−24.3% / −48.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $407.92 (+2.7%)	35% 157/446	+8.6% / +30.2%	−44.0% / −48.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Dec 9, 2024 +104.2%	Not on one close	25% 6/24	+0.2% / +31.8%	−24.8% / −48.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +40.9%	Exit below $228.37 (−42.5%)	21% 4/19	+16.3% / +34.3%	−53.9% / −48.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2026 +16.4%	Not on one close	37% 10/27	+15.9% / +34.3%	−51.8% / −48.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +40.9%	Exit below $253.93 (−36.0%)	32% 6/19	+15.7% / +34.3%	−41.3% / −48.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	May 12, 2026 +84.2%	Sell above $456.58 (+15.0%)	17% 20/115	+2.7% / +32.5%	−62.1% / −48.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +40.9%	Exit below $356.93 (−10.1%)	22% 5/23	+8.9% / +35.6%	−44.9% / −48.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	May 8, 2026 +91.0%	Exit below $322.17 (−18.9%)	31% 23/75	+14.6% / +31.6%	−46.0% / −48.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $413.19 (+4.1%)	33% 89/266	+16.1% / +29.4%	−46.6% / −48.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $410.31 (+3.3%)	33% 143/427	+20.1% / +29.4%	−33.6% / −48.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +5.9%	Exit below $350.60 (−11.7%)	43% 85/199	+13.7% / +29.3%	−44.0% / −48.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +40.9%	Not on one close	27% 3/11	+15.3% / +32.3%	−48.0% / −48.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −1.7%	Enter above $422.89 (+6.5%)	27% 118/432	+6.4% / +29.0%	−32.4% / −48.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +6.0%	Exit below $265.41 (−33.2%)	41% 68/165	+21.4% / +32.4%	−34.7% / −48.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $253.91 (−36.0%)	31% 36/117	+16.0% / +32.4%	−48.2% / −48.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +121.4%	Exit below $327.86 (−17.4%)	29% 12/42	+21.3% / +34.3%	−58.4% / −48.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2026 +16.4%	Not on one close	29% 7/24	+7.2% / +25.7%	−50.9% / −48.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jun 30, 2026 +16.4%	Not on one close	32% 8/25	+11.9% / +34.3%	−52.6% / −48.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +5.9%	Exit below $398.33 (+0.3%)	35% 70/198	+17.3% / +30.9%	−35.0% / −48.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 3, 2026 +41.6%	Not on one close	66% 21/32	+18.5% / +29.4%	−30.1% / −48.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +3.7%	Buy below $379.78 (−4.3%)	55% 104/188	+5.9% / +33.5%	−42.2% / −48.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above $419.91 (+5.8%)	57% 138/243	+5.5% / +33.5%	−67.0% / −48.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +6.2%	Buy below $358.14 (−9.8%)	62% 69/112	+9.9% / +28.7%	−38.1% / −48.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +9.2%	Not on one close	60% 58/96	+10.6% / +28.8%	−38.7% / −48.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +9.2%	Not on one close	58% 99/170	+13.4% / +29.6%	−39.9% / −48.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2026 +17.0%	Not on one close	67% 37/55	+17.1% / +30.5%	−42.8% / −48.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	May 8, 2013 +4,697.0%	Sell above $624.56 (+57.3%)	–	+33.5% / +33.5%	−48.0% / −48.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 +108.8%	Not on one close	54% 14/26	+4.3% / +30.9%	−9.0% / −48.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	44% 89/200	+18.9% / +28.7%	−36.8% / −48.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −5.2%	Not on one close	58% 160/276	+13.7% / +28.7%	−55.8% / −48.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above $397.03 (0.0%)	57% 617/1086	+6.5% / +31.0%	−35.5% / −48.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	58% 43/74	+13.8% / +33.5%	−37.0% / −48.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $440.04 (+10.8%)	36% 246/681	+14.4% / +29.4%	−50.9% / −48.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +3.9%	Buy below $405.32 (+2.1%)	55% 46/84	+7.2% / +28.5%	−52.2% / −48.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $397.03 (+0.0%)	30% 125/413	+26.8% / +28.7%	−31.9% / −48.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +9.5%	Not on one close	40% 52/129	+7.7% / +29.0%	−54.8% / −48.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Mar 18, 2026 +135.1%	Not on one close	75% 24/32	+15.0% / +29.4%	−34.2% / −48.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2023 +214.1%	Not on one close	43% 9/21	+29.1% / +34.3%	−47.0% / −48.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below $395.56 (−0.4%)	30% 112/376	+15.6% / +29.3%	−47.2% / −48.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $334.44 (−15.8%)	36% 84/236	+6.7% / +28.7%	−48.1% / −48.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $397.03 (+0.0%)	35% 135/383	+4.0% / +29.0%	−56.9% / −48.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	May 13, 2026 +74.3%	Not on one close	34% 21/61	+17.5% / +34.1%	−48.0% / −48.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.4%	Not on one close	38% 212/551	+19.1% / +31.8%	−48.3% / −48.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 +20.1%	Enter above $397.51 (+0.1%)	55% 51/92	+18.4% / +30.1%	−36.9% / −48.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	May 29, 2026 +40.9%	Exit below $243.04 (−38.8%)	22% 15/67	+2.8% / +29.7%	−49.5% / −48.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 27, 2024 +136.5%	Not on one close	54% 15/28	+3.6% / +29.2%	−11.8% / −48.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +121.4%	Buys Oct 30	46% 13/28	+11.1% / +31.0%	−48.2% / −48.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 14, 2026 +145.7%	Enter above $427.09 (+7.6%)	48% 13/27	+10.3% / +29.4%	−47.0% / −48.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Jun 8, 2026 +49.1%	Window opens Oct 16	50% 14/28	+14.8% / +29.4%	−50.7% / −48.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +118.0%	Buys Dec 23	25% 7/28	−0.5% / +31.0%	−15.1% / −48.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −2.4%	Buys Oct 29	47% 161/342	−2.1% / +31.0%	−61.6% / −48.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.1%	Sells Jun 30	29% 2/7	+8.1% / +31.0%	−33.1% / −48.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +19.1%	Buys Nov 24	50% 132/262	+4.1% / +31.0%	−19.2% / −48.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +469.1%	Not on one close	42% 5/12	+18.4% / +32.2%	−36.0% / −48.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −1.7%	Sells Oct 16	50% 743/1485	+16.0% / +31.0%	−44.1% / −48.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +5.7%	Buys Oct 27	44% 99/226	+0.7% / +31.0%	−14.8% / −48.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.5%	Sells Oct 16	51% 180/352	+13.2% / +31.0%	−63.8% / −48.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jul 20, 2012	Always in	–	+30.7%	−48.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow2 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up1/2

It moves about 1.3× its index.
It is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jul 2020

PANW−47%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Aug 2022

PANW−20%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.30Moves about 1.3× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture−65%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -65% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+113%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−5%
Debt to equity0.09×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Software - Infrastructure · Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access, a secure access service edge solution; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security management solution; and Prisma AIRS to protect customers' entire AI ecosystem.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$325B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$11.5B	Total sales. The market values it at 28.3× sales.
P/E ratio	992.6×	Buyers pay $993 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	81.4×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	11.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	2.7%	Keeps 3¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+24.5%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−75.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	1.1%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$4.2B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$27.5B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$2.6B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$3.1B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.09×	Comfortable.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$397.92	0% above the close, from 50 analysts (range $190.00 to $525.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-07-31; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

PANW: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Software & devices: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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